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If a Russian jet was downed by Turkey I'm just waiting for Erdogan to blame the Kurds and we end up with another 'he said, she said' situation a la MH17.
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Oct 10, 2015 02:35
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cochise posted:If a Russian jet was downed by Turkey I'm just waiting for Erdogan to blame the Kurds and we end up with another 'he said, she said' situation a la MH17. Except Turkey would be 100% in the right.
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Oct 10, 2015 02:37
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Remind the world of the gravity and reality of the human circumstance.
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Oct 10, 2015 02:40
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Russia would lose a jet and nothing else would happen. Russia starting WW 3 at the slightest provocation is a total fantasy. MAYBE things could have spiraled out of control if poo poo got hot in Ukraine, but that is a completely different situation.
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Oct 10, 2015 02:44
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sparatuvs posted:Except Turkey would be 100% in the right. Would be funny if both happened - "This is all the doing of those dastardly Kurds, but really Russia was asking for it anyway".
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Oct 10, 2015 02:47
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cochise posted:If a Russian jet was downed by Turkey I'm just waiting for Erdogan to blame the Kurds and we end up with another 'he said, she said' situation a la MH17. Armed combat jets flying into the airspace of another country and a civilian airliner following a normal flightpath over a region another country is invading. The same thing.
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Oct 10, 2015 02:48
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sparatuvs posted:Except Turkey would be 100% in the right. No doubt. Guess I'm just eager to see the conspiracy theories from the other side if it happened. Warbadger posted:Armed combat jets flying into the airspace of another country and a civilian airliner following a normal flightpath over a region another country is invading. The same thing. 
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Oct 10, 2015 02:53
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cochise posted:If a Russian jet was downed by Turkey I'm just waiting for Erdogan to blame the Kurds and we end up with another 'he said, she said' situation a la MH17. A combat aircraft getting shot down in another country's airspace is completely justified. There would be no he said, she said because Turkey would say, "drat right we shot it down" and everyone would agree they did the right thing. The only out Russia would have is if it somehow managed to crash just inside the Syrian border, then you could have bickering over whether or not it was in Turkish airspace when it was hit.
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Oct 10, 2015 02:54
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Remember when Assad's forces shot down that Turkish Jet? I had trouble sleeping.
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Oct 10, 2015 02:58
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Shageletic posted:A more day in the life view of life in Iraq, from a woman trying to save girls: Jeez, that's a hell of a story. Good on her.
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Oct 10, 2015 02:59
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Miltank posted:What do you think would happen? There would be a diplomatic brouhaha that Turkey would have to treat semi-seriously as opposed to some bluster where Turkey said to Syria "don't give a gently caress we'll do it again". Bip Roberts fucked around with this message at 03:24 on Oct 10, 2015 |
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Oct 10, 2015 03:22
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 that people are convinced every 12 hours that a Russian helicopter or plane have been shot down.I understand that everyone is playing a war based drinking game and when a Russian aircraft goes down we all get to chug, but maybe people should wait for better confirmation than a video of 12 people yelling ALLAHU ACKBAR when a TOW hits a hill vaguely near a blob in the sky.
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Oct 10, 2015 04:58
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:
Nobody is really convinced, brah. Chill.
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Oct 10, 2015 05:11
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:
Coming out against D&Ders drinking is not a winning proposition.
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Oct 10, 2015 05:37
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WW3 is just around the corner because Russia bombed some ISIS (maybe) in Syria!  Or something. Then again it never sparked off when there were legit possible reasons for it before so I don't think it'll happen now. Too much money to be lost after all.
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Oct 10, 2015 06:04
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Quick update. Along the West Ghab plain/Latakia coastal mountain axis the regime has had success taking territory along all three of their liens of advance. All three of these are very limited fronts which can not support each other, but advance sin this area as a whole will protect the coastal enclaves and clearing the mountain will allow movement into the Ghab plain. As these are narrow fronts firepower advantages are important, however reversals can occur rapidly if sudden combat isn't met with reinforcements. The regime will need to maintain their position and advance to really break new ground in this region as both advance sand retreats have been commonplace. Northern Hama. The initial assaults appear to have died down with mostly probing attacks and artillery barrage/bombing taking place now. Attrition continues to be a factor for front line regime vehicles, of note today was a poorly placed bivouac at the east end of the front that got ripped apart by ATGM fire with three videos of direct hits on tanks that were let in the open. Rebel losses are unclear, however on the west side of the front Russian helicopters have been particularly consistent about attacking Kafr Nabudah. Loss of the town does not immediately threaten the rest of the bastion but it would be troubling for the rebels as a repeatable assault strategy for the regime. Still the regime will have to send in ground forces to actually clear the town. Finally it appear the regime is also conducting the offensive I said they should focus on toward Kweries airbase. Early reports are they have made some progress. It remains to be seen if they will get bogged down and what further support they can supply to the push while conducting simultaneous offensives elsewhere.
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Oct 10, 2015 06:46
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DancingShade posted:WW3 is just around the corner because Russia bombed some ISIS (maybe) in Syria! Yeah, I mean there was no war when Germany sent that gunboat into Agadir so i don't see how this assassination of an Austrian archduke could lead to anything. No one's gonna start a world war because Austria stomps a couple of Serbian terrorists.
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Oct 10, 2015 07:51
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I have no idea why people continue to think that either Russia or Syria are constrained by the same political considerations that the US is under. Its like the US hand-wrings itself into complete and total uselessness at the mere sight of blood. Want to know what Putin would do if he lost a plane in Turkey? A small fraction of the concern he has shown at losing tons of soldiers in ukraine. He is using his military to achieve his policy objectives. There is virtually no conceivable way that he would lose such a huge torrent of soldiers that the domestic audience would backlash. If Turkey blows up a Russian plane then the situation would either escalate or de-escalate depending upon whether Putin thinks he can politically gain from the situation without spending any real effort. If the pilot's wife freaks out on TV then she is getting injected with a sedative and taken off stage. If the west freaks the gently caress out he will brush it off and de-escalate, if the west acts meek he will push until the west freaks out and then he will de-escalate. For the past year he has pretty consistently bluffed the poo poo out of the west and President obama seems to have no interest at the moment in calling him on it.
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Oct 10, 2015 08:07
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Some kind of explosion in Ankara according to BBC.
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Oct 10, 2015 08:49
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Two bombs detonated at a peace rally: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/10/turkey-suicide-bomb-killed-in-ankara?CMP=edit_2221 Allegedly 20 are dead and more are wounded. HorseRenoir fucked around with this message at 09:27 on Oct 10, 2015 |
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Oct 10, 2015 09:24
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Bip Roberts posted:There would be a diplomatic brouhaha that Turkey would have to treat semi-seriously as opposed to some bluster where Turkey said to Syria "don't give a gently caress we'll do it again". Turkey would just have to insist that the Russian jet was shot down by a Su-25 of the YPG, and provide as proof some hilariously fake satellite imagery where both planes apparently have a wingspan of several kilometers. Russia would be forced to accept it and shut up. Cat Mattress fucked around with this message at 09:56 on Oct 10, 2015 |
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Oct 10, 2015 09:50
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Cat Mattress posted:Turkey would just have to insist that the Russian jet was shot down by a Su-24 of the YPG, and provide as proof some hilariously fake satellite imagery where both planes apparently have a wingspan of several kilometers. Turkey should say they shot one down and use some hilarious fake imagery as proof, only the fighter being shot down is clearly just a render of that joke Iranian "stealth fighter" from a couple years back piloted by a cartoon bear.
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Oct 10, 2015 09:54
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HorseRenoir posted:Two bombs detonated at a peace rally: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/10/turkey-suicide-bomb-killed-in-ankara?CMP=edit_2221   Explosion: https://twitter.com/dokuz8haber/status/652762388324872192/video/1 Aftermath: https://twitter.com/ahmetsaymadi/status/652752327326236672/video/1
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Oct 10, 2015 10:08
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http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQ4h_vWUwAAZFIA.jpg TOS-1 in Syria apparently?
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Oct 10, 2015 10:22
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Pimpmust posted:http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQ4h_vWUwAAZFIA.jpg I know they'd given some to the Iraqis and I thought they'd already given some to the Syrians before this, but I'm not going to say I'm positive because I could just be remembering the Iraqi ones by mistake. And there was a report a few weeks ago of one in Ukraine, but that's for another thread.
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Oct 10, 2015 10:26
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farraday posted:Quick update. Do you think that the regime will be able to sustain such offences for long or will the rebels push back in Ghab? I am asking you since you seem to be very well versed on whats going on in the ground.
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Oct 10, 2015 10:30
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Cugel the Clever posted:HDP-led rally. And to think, six years ago, I actually thought Erdogan was moving Turkey forward... The coward's no better than Assad. gently caress, who do you did it?
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Oct 10, 2015 11:25
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Dapper_Swindler posted:gently caress, who do you did it? Probably IS, possibly with somebody in the security services closing their eyes a whole lot.
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Oct 10, 2015 11:31
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HorseRenoir posted:Two bombs detonated at a peace rally: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/10/turkey-suicide-bomb-killed-in-ankara?CMP=edit_2221 Does that banner say 'Peace With Kurds, War With USA' ? Which party is that, there are lots of parties with hammer and sickle in their logo but I can't find that one.
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Oct 10, 2015 11:52
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Savy Saracen salad posted:Do you think that the regime will be able to sustain such offences for long or will the rebels push back in Ghab? I am asking you since you seem to be very well versed on whats going on in the ground. I would say no. Nothing I've seen recently suggests that have the ability to run multiple advances like this. They definitely have manpower problems. On balance I suspect an NDF call up of units they can coerce into becoming frontline troops. Part of the reason I suspect this is the recent focus on a Christian NDF unit in northern Hama that garnered attention for the crosses on its tanks. Still I'm honestly unsure how long they can maintain a full court press.
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Oct 10, 2015 13:19
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Friendly Tumour posted:Probably IS, possibly with somebody in the security services closing their eyes a whole lot. The HDP is blaming the state, says BBC. This is really, really bad. Considering how Turkey has been acting lately, it will probably respond to the bombings by banning the HDP party and arresting its members.
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Oct 10, 2015 13:27
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Here's a video from moments after the bombing that really shows the scale. It looks like Aleppo.  Reports are now saying 47 dead. https://twitter.com/curdistani/status/652820641327017985
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Oct 10, 2015 13:33
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Twitter just got shut off in Turkey. What else is new.
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Oct 10, 2015 13:47
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Expel Turkey from NATO, give Smyrna and Constantinople back to Greece, divvy up Eastern Anatolia between Armenia and Kurdistan. Problem solved!
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Oct 10, 2015 13:49
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Death toll up to 86. Claims that makes it the deadliest terrorist attack in Turkey's history? Here's a video of people beating the police out of the way so that ambulances can get through. https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/652827448493637632 That 86 number comes from a Turkish minister on live TV, so it's being covered, but I've seen reports that Turkey isn't allowing the media to show footage of the attack. Edit:  Bariş means peace. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 13:59 on Oct 10, 2015 |
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Oct 10, 2015 13:55
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Cat Mattress posted:Everything is bad. Why the gently caress did I watch that video. Don't bother, you know what ISIS does. Many more injured so expect it to get worse all day. Mackers fucked around with this message at 14:08 on Oct 10, 2015 |
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Oct 10, 2015 14:04
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Mackers posted:Why the gently caress did I watch that video. Don't bother, you know what
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Oct 10, 2015 14:12
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Can Turkey invoke Article 5 because of this? Is Ankara not being in Europe an issue, and does this terrorist attack qualify as an attack on Turkey if it turns out it was caused by ISIS? (edit: Or "caused by ISIS")
my dad fucked around with this message at 14:20 on Oct 10, 2015 |
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Oct 10, 2015 14:15
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Cugel the Clever posted:HDP-led rally. And to think, six years ago, I actually thought Erdogan was moving Turkey forward... The coward's no better than Assad. What are those young protesters holding hands saying?
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Oct 10, 2015 14:19
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my dad posted:Can Turkey invoke Article 5 because of this? Is Ankara not being in Europe an issue, and does this terrorist attack qualify as an attack on Turkey if it turns out it was caused by ISIS? There's been attacks before in Turkey with nothing like that happening. This massacre was committed against Kurds, and police hindered response efforts. With that and what we've heard so far today, everything points to Turkey trying to downplay what happened rather than make a big deal over it.
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Oct 10, 2015 14:20
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