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Between McCarthy no and now Paul Ryan no this house speaker race has been pretty profitable
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Oct 13, 2015 04:21
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:But...what if he runs? Yeah, there is that whole thing--though he would be pretty crazy to choose to run now when he could have gotten in months ago. Assuming Hillary doesn't call Sanders a crazy old kike at the debate, she's still looking too strong for Biden to topple, and he knows it.
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Oct 13, 2015 04:22
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Vox Nihili posted:Yeah, there is that whole thing--though he would be pretty crazy to choose to run now when he could have gotten in months ago. No but you see Biden will unbeatable if he waits until the primaries are over to announce. The man is a genius playing us all.
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Oct 13, 2015 04:49
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Even though all logic and reason tells me that Biden won't run (and I have plenty of cash in it that he won't), the thing keeping me from putting more in is just the sheer belief of the other people/media that he will. I will feel quite the fool if they, somehow, turn out right.
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Oct 13, 2015 05:10
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JosefStalinator posted:Even though all logic and reason tells me that Biden won't run (and I have plenty of cash in it that he won't), the thing keeping me from putting more in is just the sheer belief of the other people/media that he will. I will feel quite the fool if they, somehow, turn out right. Pretty much in the same boat, except: 
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Oct 13, 2015 05:28
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Vox Nihili posted:Pretty much in the same boat, except: I'm at about 600 shares so I'm not much better. At least we have accepted the possibility of disaster 
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Oct 13, 2015 05:30
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So I actually managed to sell a couple Ben Carson Next To Drop Out Yes at 30. Really didn't think anyone would buy it, but the only other offer on the market was an insane 99/1 from someone trying to pick up some a single cheap No.JosefStalinator posted:I'm at about 600 shares so I'm not much better. At least we have accepted the possibility of disaster We're just selling our temporary paranoia for a nice profit. Structurally Biden has no real place in the field and has waited too long. But the media really, really want him in and the dude does want to be President. Come on Diamond Joe, do me a solid and don't turn my 1300 shares to poo poo. Gyges has issued a correction as of 05:36 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 05:32
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EngineerSean posted:I think there's a flaw to this math. As you said, the main reason why Walker NO might be 95 is because your money is locked up for a year. However, I don't believe that actually makes Walker YES have a value of 5, I think that makes the value of the entire contract 95. I know that every NO share has a YES share to balance it out but if nobody's buying at 5, the value isn't 5, it's just people selling NO at a slight loss here. How is that? You're right that a contract can be created when a YES and a NO buyer connect. The value will be $1.00. By definition the contract ALWAYS has to be $1.00. Once created there is no mechanism for a contract to be destroyed or used up. In the Walker example, if NO is 95, then yes value HAS to be 5. Your original basis is what determines if you sold your YES or NO for a loss. In the Walker contract, I can see how and why NO sellers drove the price down to 96, but it is weird that sellers of YES are not driving their price down to 1. Necc0 posted:God that's tempting. I told myself I've already put enough into that market though. Are all of us NO? This market is amazing. I've never had more than $40 in there at any one time and made close to $10 in the last week by buying every time it dips and selling every time it mildly spikes. I hope he never declares anything.
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Oct 13, 2015 05:40
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Are all of us NO? I think all of us but Do Not Resuscitate are No on Biden. I wonder how much it's going to dip when Biden doesn't appear in the middle of Hillary's opening remarks to slap the mic out of her hand and claim her podium tomorrow. It will of course rebound within hours because Biden is just biding his time for the optimal declaration.
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Oct 13, 2015 05:48
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We all love the Biden insanity, but can any of you imagine just how beautiful it would be if Trump made the general? It would be unskewed polling times 1000, and so many die-hard believers pouring their fortune into the market as the polls show him down by 7 points. ...Then we all collectively weep when he, somehow, wins
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Oct 13, 2015 05:53
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:48 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 13, 2015 06:49
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Yeah, I have yes shares and yes, I really do think he's gonna run. How deep are you into it?
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Oct 13, 2015 06:59
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gently caress, Biden NO rebounded hard while I was out drinking and I can't buy in again tonight. It looks like NO is softer than YES, which has a hard barrier at .49 and even harder at .50. "Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth day. At dawn look to the east." i say swears online has issued a correction as of 08:56 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 07:35
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Bernie YES on winning the debate surged up to 65 briefly so irrationality is the name of the game.
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Oct 13, 2015 10:35
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Zeta Taskforce posted:How is that? You're right that a contract can be created when a YES and a NO buyer connect. The value will be $1.00. By definition the contract ALWAYS has to be $1.00. Once created there is no mechanism for a contract to be destroyed or used up. Huh? Yes, there is. Every contract needs a holder on each end. If I have a BIDENRUN No for sale at $.45, and a Yes holder agrees that $.55 is a good price to sell, then that trade executes, we each go down a share and up in credit, and those two shares are destroyed. Buying isn't the only possible transaction.
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Oct 13, 2015 14:02
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Fuschia tude posted:Huh? Yes, there is. Every contract needs a holder on each end. If I have a BIDENRUN No for sale at $.45, and a Yes holder agrees that $.55 is a good price to sell, then that trade executes, we each go down a share and up in credit, and those two shares are destroyed. Buying isn't the only possible transaction. That makes sense. I learned something
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Oct 13, 2015 15:12
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Fuschia tude posted:Huh? Yes, there is. Every contract needs a holder on each end. If I have a BIDENRUN No for sale at $.45, and a Yes holder agrees that $.55 is a good price to sell, then that trade executes, we each go down a share and up in credit, and those two shares are destroyed. Buying isn't the only possible transaction. Those shares aren't destroyed though, they're just passed off to someone else. edit: I misread what you wrote. Do they really do that? I didn't know it was possible to destroy shares like that but it makes sense. Do they have that outlined somewhere on their site? Necc0 has issued a correction as of 15:24 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 15:21
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Necc0 posted:Those shares aren't destroyed though, they're just passed off to someone else. Yep, you can tell by looking at how the available sell/buy offers are perfectly mirrored. Every offer to sell No is also an offer to buy Yes for the other side.
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Oct 13, 2015 16:31
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Vox Nihili posted:Yep, you can tell by looking at how the available sell/buy offers are perfectly mirrored. Every offer to sell No is also an offer to buy Yes for the other side. That doesn't destroy both shares though, just transforms Yes -> No or vice versa.
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Oct 13, 2015 16:41
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Necc0 posted:That doesn't destroy both shares though, just transforms Yes -> No or vice versa. Well if you offer to sell No at 35c someone could either buy No at 35c or sell Yes at 65c to complete the transaction. Otherwise an offer to sell a share could only be completed by someone picking up a share of the same type. Otherwise, selling No/buying Yes wouldn't be perfect mirrors on the price table because an offer to sell a No would not create an opportunity for Yes.
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Oct 13, 2015 16:58
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About drat time for Biden No to start climbing. I'm considering selling some if mine after the debate in case he tries to gently caress us at the last minute.
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Oct 13, 2015 18:27
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User Error posted:About drat time for Biden No to start climbing. I'm considering selling some if mine after the debate in case he tries to gently caress us at the last minute. If the market stays true to it's nature, it'll climb up to somewhere in the 60s and then crash back down because Biden exited the Naval Observatory without seeing his shadow.
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Oct 13, 2015 18:43
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:49 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 13, 2015 19:02
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I hope the BIDENRUN market stops its foray into rationality. I wanna pick up a few more shares of NO at sub 40c levels 
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Oct 13, 2015 19:03
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Biden's schedule has him attending meetings at the White House today. When he parachutes out of Marine One onto the debate stage immediately after getting a fistbump from Obama we're all gonna look pretty stupid.
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Oct 13, 2015 19:05
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Bernie is gonna kill it tonight, place your bets
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Oct 13, 2015 20:20
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My shares of Diamond NO are taking off since last night and I gotta say, it feels good man. Planning on selling right before the debate and playing as the debate rages. Did y'all see a lot of volatility during the republican debates? I hadn't started playing yet.
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Oct 13, 2015 20:32
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What just happened here? https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1297/Will-Bernie-Sanders-see-the-worst-polling-impact-from-CNN#data1 (check out the 24 hour timescale)
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Oct 13, 2015 20:38
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Look at the volume on those yes shares. There's a couple dozen in the 50 and 51 cent range, then it skyrockets to 98 cents. I'm guessing someone but the like 10 shares that sat between.
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Oct 13, 2015 20:42
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From the comments it sounds like there's some fuckery with how the polls are measured, so they're going to be using ones from before the debate that already went down.
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Oct 13, 2015 20:48
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Jewel Repetition posted:From the comments it sounds like there's some fuckery with how the polls are measured, DONT BET ON POLLS
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Oct 13, 2015 20:52
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Betting on polls is super stupid. I'm putting some money on Bernie trying to talk a lot
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Oct 13, 2015 20:53
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A Time To Chill posted:I hope the BIDENRUN market stops its foray into rationality. I wanna pick up a few more shares of NO at sub 40c levels quote:Exactly. Why would it be his son's dying wish to urge him to run for president unless that was something they had already talked about before (i.e. his desire to run for president)? Of course he's still healing, but as he becomes stronger with each passing day I have to believe he's increasingly more inclined to run. Actually, he's always been inclined to run. Never ruled it out, even as early as a couple years ago. He's run twice before, this is something he wants, and now is his last and best chance to do it. If he loses then he loses, so what. At least he tried.
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Oct 13, 2015 21:08
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Where he hell did that come from?
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Oct 13, 2015 21:27
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Sounds like something from the PredictIt comments section, which are full of Biden campers. If there's anything this experience has taught me it's that Politico really is just a gossip rag, but apparently "advisers are saying the real, real, real deadline is the end of the month, because of ballot-access requirements in November". The other new real deadline is Clinton's appearance at the Benghazi Committee on October 22nd, which is her last real chance to flame out before the end of the month. I'm staying out of the debate markets, nothing super solid or too interesting. Still going to be fun to watch the wild fluctuations, though.
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Oct 13, 2015 21:38
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just sold my first shares of Bidenrun NO at 50, feels good man
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Oct 13, 2015 22:05
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I'm considering assigning each of my friends a candidate to time with their phone and putting in a bet about half way in if anyone is clearly ahead
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Oct 13, 2015 22:28
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Necc0 posted:I'm considering assigning each of my friends a candidate to time with their phone and putting in a bet about half way in if anyone is clearly ahead Last time they locked the length of speaking one right as the debate started.
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Oct 13, 2015 22:34
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Stereotype posted:I'm putting some money on Bernie trying to talk a lot I'm taking the opposite track where Chafee, Webb and O'Malley keep contrasting themselves to Clinton and the moderators ask her to respond. Speaking of which, is there a good way to find out if they will follow the same format as the Republican debate?
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Oct 13, 2015 22:38
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Jewel Repetition posted:From the comments it sounds like there's some fuckery with how the polls are measured, so they're going to be using ones from before the debate that already went down. It looks like it's just your usual RCP polling stuff. A couple polls just fell off, so the numbers needed by everyone for increases/decreases just changed. It's really something that anyone betting on the market should have expected. O'Malley still has probably the best chance at the biggest increase just because he's at virtual 0 now and, honestly, nobody has any idea who he is. People have been talking about Bernie already, and honestly what you do at a debate is irrelevant. It's what the media talks about, and O'Malley is way more likely to throw the type of bomb that the national media love to cover. Edit: As always, be out of the market before the end date for all poll markets. Nothing but heartache awaits you otherwise. Gyges has issued a correction as of 23:44 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 23:39
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