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EngineerSean posted:feels like an idiot when it's 60 six hours later The trick is to not think of unrealized potential as a loss. That's how stock traders go crazy.
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Oct 14, 2015 19:57
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If anyone wants to make a guaranteed 5% return and you can hold out for a week there are 340 shares at 95 right now for Chafee to be the biggest CNN debate loser. He is currently polling at 0.3%
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Oct 14, 2015 19:57
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Zeta Taskforce posted:If anyone wants to make a guaranteed 5% return and you can hold out for a week there are 340 shares at 95 right now for Chafee to be the biggest CNN debate loser. He is currently polling at 0.3% which means he can only lose .3%. do you really think no one else will lose more than .3%?
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Oct 14, 2015 20:12
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Aliquid posted:The trick is to not think of unrealized potential as a loss. That's how stock traders go crazy. Exactly. Vox Nihili posted:Either Biden or the media will need to play him up and build some drama for the big dinner event (name is slipping my mind). It's the J-J Dinner on the 24th. I'm going to hold out for now, I think it's just easy to get impatient with the Biden market since the man in question seems intent on dragging this out as long as possible.
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Oct 14, 2015 20:12
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Abel Wingnut posted:which means he can only lose .3%. do you really think no one else will lose more than .3%? Yeah which is why the NO bet is a good bet even at 95%, the only possibility for a loss exists with Biden saying "I'm completely out" and everyone else seeing a gain that Chafee doesn't see.
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Oct 14, 2015 20:15
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Vox Nihili posted:Either Biden or the media will need to play him up and build some drama for the big dinner event (name is slipping my mind). Otherwise, all the big Yes boosters are melting down and lots of people look to be cutting losses, which is equivalent to a big No buy order. Solid wall of such orders down to 50c now. There's also the benghazi hearing on the 22nd or 23rd?
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Oct 14, 2015 20:16
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Aliquid posted:The trick is to not think of unrealized potential as a loss. That's how stock traders go crazy. I am glad I am not a stock trader, but then again they only have forty hours a week of watching stocks rather than a hundred sixty eight.
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Oct 14, 2015 20:17
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EngineerSean posted:Yeah which is why the NO bet is a good bet even at 95%, the only possibility for a loss exists with Biden saying "I'm completely out" and everyone else seeing a gain that Chafee doesn't see. completely forgot you were advocating NO by the end of that. apologies. i think webb might be a smart YES there, but only if RCP includes three or four polls post-debate. no idea if that'll happen. i'm guessing hillary ultimately loses the most, but as cheap as webb is it's worth a dollar or so.
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Oct 14, 2015 20:21
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Biden no is now at 70 cents. At this point it might be worth picking up some tanking yes shares cheap for the inevitable bump when Hillary testifies to congress about Benghazi.
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Oct 14, 2015 22:10
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Or when Biden farts and it sounds v. presidential
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Oct 14, 2015 22:17
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nachos posted:There's also the benghazi hearing on the 22nd or 23rd? Yeah, the fifth one or whatever? Those have no meaning anymore outside a handful of delusional Republicans. I suppose they overlap with PredictIt buyers to some degree, but I think media narrative is the big driver, and Benghazi is well into played out. I wouldn't recommend buying Yes at any value about a dime or so right now. The market is completely unpredictable but the outcome is not. Could easily slide to 80 or 90c before big No holders sell off. Several have shifted downward a few times already.
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Oct 14, 2015 22:37
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EngineerSean posted:Yeah I feel like I play this game a lot. For instance: It's all good, no one ever went broke taking a profit.
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Oct 14, 2015 23:49
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nachos posted:Biden no is now at 70 cents. At this point it might be worth picking up some tanking yes shares cheap for the inevitable bump when Hillary testifies to congress about Benghazi. I like to think my comment asking the 'Yes' crowd what would cause them to change their minds triggered that 
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Oct 15, 2015 00:20
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Man I should have waited a bit to pick up all my biden yes shares.
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Oct 15, 2015 01:03
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OldHansMoleman posted:Man I should have waited a bit to pick up all my biden yes shares. If history holds, it's only a matter of days at most before you can flip those for a tidy profit after anonymous sources in the 3rd degree tell a reporter all about how Biden is totally announcing this weekend.
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Oct 15, 2015 01:41
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so what you're saying is buy YES shares at $.35 right now. then flip those for $.50 this weekend?
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Oct 15, 2015 01:42
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Abel Wingnut posted:so what you're saying is buy YES shares at $.35 right now. then flip those for $.50 this weekend? Only if that actually works out for you, otherwise no. There is a chance that the unsinkable optimism of the Biden Yes crowd has finally hit an iceberg. Keep in mind that this is the least rational market on the site, so go wild in the most calculated and reasoned way possible that responsibly safeguards your investment, to the max.
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Oct 15, 2015 02:09
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Gyges posted:If history holds, it's only a matter of days at most before you can flip those for a tidy profit after anonymous sources in the 3rd degree tell a reporter all about how Biden is totally announcing this weekend. That would be nice. I'd like to believe I'm trading on inside information but we'll see. I might just be a my dad totally works for Nintendo idiot so a quick cash out would be nice. OldHansMoleman has issued a correction as of 04:51 on Oct 15, 2015 |
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Oct 15, 2015 04:47
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Gyges posted:Only if that actually works out for you, otherwise no. Applicable advice for everyone. edit vv well that's weird i say swears online has issued a correction as of 18:56 on Oct 15, 2015 |
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Oct 15, 2015 05:11
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So Ben Carson is suspending his public campaign events, but he plans to resume them in 2 weeks and is continuing to do private events in those 2 weeks. In other words, he has not dropped out. But some people just read the headline and drove the NO price down to 70: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1251/Will-Ben-Carson-be-the-next-Republican-candidate-to-drop-out#data1 edit: It appears to be one unfortunate fellow in the comments who didn't read the rules  edit: Aaaaaaaaannnnddd it's gone. No is back up to 90. Quickest 20 bucks I ever made! pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 18:40 on Oct 15, 2015 |
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Oct 15, 2015 18:29
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I just wish I had my Ben Carson Yes set at a higher sell point. Oh well, turned $2 into $20. Thanks, Doc.
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Oct 15, 2015 19:44
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Is BIDENRUN NO likely to go back down? I'd be willing to buy at 0.70 since it's pretty clear he's not gonna run. But if we think the crazy Biden fans on PI are gonna push it back down to the 0.50s for the Benghazi hearing or something, I'd obviously rather wait.
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Oct 15, 2015 21:02
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I think it's sort of self-evident that the PIs have largely lost faith by the market itself turning over. There's a few zealots left but I doubt anything will push it significantly back up. You might see some motion leading up to the Benghazi hearing but I doubt it'll be significant.
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Oct 15, 2015 21:30
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A Time To Chill posted:Is BIDENRUN NO likely to go back down? I'd be willing to buy at 0.70 since it's pretty clear he's not gonna run. But if we think the crazy Biden fans on PI are gonna push it back down to the 0.50s for the Benghazi hearing or something, I'd obviously rather wait. I would wait a bit, even if it doesn't drop significantly we are near a high water mark right now. You'll have a good chance of getting it a bit cheaper or at least at the same price in the next week or two I imagine.
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Oct 15, 2015 21:47
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It's good to see the Biden bubble finally burst because I have a big bag of I-told-you-sos I've been saving for it.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:09
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If anyone wants cheap NO on Biden they are at 50c right now because a new article came out saying bidens family supports a run
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Oct 15, 2015 23:20
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nachos posted:If anyone wants cheap NO on Biden they are at 50c right now because a new article came out saying bidens family supports a run I bought all the last 50 cent shares, the price then immediately jumped to 61 cents.  EDIT: The market's deflating back towards 50 cents pretty rapidly again.  Good advice earlier to buy up some YES shares when they were selling for 30.
Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 23:32 on Oct 15, 2015 |
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Oct 15, 2015 23:22
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If Biden does announce, will it be the latest announcement in the modern primary? I am annoyed that I just bought some shares at lunch because it looked like the Yes team had their spirit totally broken.
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Oct 15, 2015 23:30
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The reason no shares are so cheap:quote:(CNN)Vice President Joe Biden has personally made a series of calls this week to Democratic strategists from Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, asking a final round of detailed questions about how -- not whether -- to launch a 2016 presidential campaign.
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Oct 15, 2015 23:37
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who that Joe Biden would call would say "Nah, don't run Joe, just not worth it"
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Oct 15, 2015 23:52
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Oh poo poo, buy Biden Nos as fast as possible right now.
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Oct 15, 2015 23:53
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Lol I just saw the old Biden run featured comment about how it doesn't count if someone else with the same name runs for president.
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Oct 15, 2015 23:57
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Now I kind of wish I'd sold all my shares around 70 so I could jump back in at a lower average, because it looks like we'll get back down in the 30s at this rate. Biden Run is never a dull market.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:04
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:49 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 16, 2015 00:12
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Biden isn't stupid enough to actually think he has a shot at this point. I can't decide if it's just a bunch of wishful thinkers feeding anonymous tip after anonymous tip to the reporters, or if Biden is loving around for shits and giggles/as part of one of Obama's mythic 11th dimensional chess moves.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:19
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I just hope when he officially announces no, I'm quick enough to cancel all of my sell orders (staggered at 66, 75, and 90) and put them up at 97.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:26
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pathetic little tramp posted:I just hope when he officially announces no, I'm quick enough to cancel all of my sell orders (staggered at 66, 75, and 90) and put them up at 97. Doesn't predictit itself "buy" your orders for a dollar when that happens?
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Oct 16, 2015 00:28
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Gyges posted:Biden isn't stupid enough to actually think he has a shot at this point. I can't decide if it's just a bunch of wishful thinkers feeding anonymous tip after anonymous tip to the reporters, or if Biden is loving around for shits and giggles/as part of one of Obama's mythic 11th dimensional chess moves. It's one of two things in my mind: 1) Denial: Biden knows that after this, he's basically politically retired. He's had a really long career and has always wanted the presidency, but he fucks it up every time he tries. This is his last chance, but he knows he can't win. So he has someone constantly keeping the door open for him so he can entertain the dream just a little while longer.  (It also gets him non-stop attention, and since he's a career politicians, he's probably the kind of person who eats that poo poo up, yo.) 2) Weird Democratic Party Strategy: Biden maybe entering the race has put all eyes on Hillary to see if she'll surpass expectations. By having Biden swan around for a long time and then dropping out after Hillary crushes it, it demonstrates that no one — not even Diamond Joe! — can possibly oppose her. (This would happen regardless if it's a conspiracy, of course.)
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Oct 16, 2015 00:29
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Just doubled down on Biden NO after ditching Bernie NO...I'm up to 100 shares. Don't gently caress me up Joe!
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Oct 16, 2015 00:31
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Jewel Repetition posted:Doesn't predictit itself "buy" your orders for a dollar when that happens? It's unlikely that PredictIt would close the market before the price hit 90.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:36
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