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EngineerSean posted:It's unlikely that PredictIt would close the market before the price hit 90. Yeah, he'll announce no/yes and then there will be a huge panic with a flurry of trading on the boards for about an hour before it all closes.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:40
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pathetic little tramp posted:I just hope when he officially announces no, I'm quick enough to cancel all of my sell orders (staggered at 66, 75, and 90) and put them up at 97. You're playing with fire here. These markets move fast as gently caress when there's concrete evidence of a closing market.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:42
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Well I'm still making a profit with my staggered sells, I'd just like to be as greedy as possible when I know I've got the winning hand. Also, fun fact I just learned: when you sell a share, it always sells your oldest held shares first instead of the ones that would make you the most profit.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:54
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Never change, Biden market. I look forward to finally making the right bet on one of these things.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:56
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As usual, it's turning out CNN is ginning up the story. Someone at NBC asked one of the actual sources for their story and said Joe was simply asking what his chances were at this late in the game. https://twitter.com/kwelkernbc/status/654742903542034432 She doesn't say what the answer was, but we can all be pretty sure the answer was "not too good Joe."
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Oct 16, 2015 00:59
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is there any way to get in on this if you don't live in the us? not really worried about any risk bc i'll only put in some fun money.
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Oct 16, 2015 01:13
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PC Brigadier posted:is there any way to get in on this if you don't live in the us? There's nothing explicitly against it that I could find in the T&C (as long as you stay in compliance with your local laws), but they're required to verify your identity to make sure you're over 18 and they seem to ask for a US address, so unless you somehow check out against their databases you're probably out of luck.
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Oct 16, 2015 01:24
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why am i liquidating long-term shares in other markets at a loss to buy more biden NO 
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Oct 16, 2015 02:34
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Aliquid posted:why am i liquidating long-term shares in other markets at a loss to buy more biden NO That is a good question. Don't do that. At worst liquidate at break even.
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Oct 16, 2015 02:35
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Okay I'm going all in on Biden No. I've got like 30 bucks in on it now.
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Oct 16, 2015 03:02
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Jewel Repetition posted:Doesn't predictit itself "buy" your orders for a dollar when that happens? No, only when the market closes. He can say "no" and still potentially run after, so Nos won't get paid until 12/31/2015. (Or if he becomes mentally incapacitated or something I guess.) pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah, he'll announce no/yes and then there will be a huge panic with a flurry of trading on the boards for about an hour before it all closes. Read the rules again.
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Oct 16, 2015 03:25
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Also it usually takes them at the minimum 12 hours to close a market after a thing happens. That's how long it took for the Nobel Peace Prize one at least, which was pretty clear.
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Oct 16, 2015 03:26
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Fuschia tude posted:Read the rules again. What are we missing here?
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Oct 16, 2015 03:51
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EngineerSean posted:What are we missing here? The only thing that can close the market is him submitting FEC papers. Saying he's not going to isn't sufficient for that condition to be met.
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Oct 16, 2015 03:56
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Someone just bought a bunch of Romney NOs for some reason.
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Oct 16, 2015 04:06
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:49 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 16, 2015 04:13
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I'd like to buy individual NO shares for Carson, Bush and Kasich and YES shares for Rubio and ride the movement that I think will happen over the next two weeks in the GOP Nomination market. Think you're too late on the Carson wave. He's been steadily increasing ever since the last debate. Might have a bit left in him but we'll see. Buying ANY yes shares on any of the multi-contract markets is a risk. When they introduce linking they'll all plummet immediately. I already have a spreadsheet for pre and post link arbitration ROIs and it'll be a huge shift. Not only will the arbitrators have most of their money returned to them but their ROI will go up by 15x-30x. It won't be pretty.
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Oct 16, 2015 04:22
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Without links: Candidate 'No' Price Pay-In Pay-Out (Gross) Profit Tax (10%) Withdrawal Fee (5%) AmEx Rebate (2%) Net Gain ROI $0.6000 $0.6000 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0120 $0.0120 -$0.5880 -98.00% $0.6800 $1.2800 $1.0000 $0.0400 $0.0480 $0.0256 $0.9376 -$0.3424 -26.75% $0.8100 $2.0900 $2.0000 $0.0720 $0.0964 $0.0418 $1.8734 -$0.2166 -10.36% $0.8400 $2.9300 $3.0000 $0.0910 $0.1454 $0.0586 $2.8222 -$0.1078 -3.68% $0.8700 $3.8000 $4.0000 $0.1070 $0.1946 $0.0760 $3.7744 -$0.0257 -0.68% $0.8800 $4.6800 $5.0000 $0.1200 $0.2440 $0.0936 $4.7296 $0.0496 1.06% $0.8900 $5.5700 $6.0000 $0.1320 $0.2934 $0.1114 $5.6860 $0.1160 2.08% $0.9400 $6.5100 $7.0000 $0.1430 $0.3428 $0.1302 $6.6444 $0.1344 2.06% $0.9400 $7.4500 $8.0000 $0.1490 $0.3926 $0.1490 $7.6074 $0.1575 2.11% $0.9500 $8.4000 $9.0000 $0.1550 $0.4422 $0.1680 $8.5708 $0.1708 2.03% With links NO YES Lot Price Pay-In Pay-Out (Gross) Profit Tax (10%) Withdrawal Fee (5%) AmEx Rebate (2%) Net Gain ROI $0.6000 $0.400 $0.6000 $0.600 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.012 $0.012 -$0.588 -98.00% $0.6800 $0.320 $1.2800 $0.680 $0.3200 $0.032 $0.014 $0.014 $0.287 -$0.393 -57.76% $0.8100 $0.190 $2.0900 $0.810 $0.5100 $0.051 $0.023 $0.016 $0.452 -$0.358 -44.17% $0.8400 $0.160 $2.9300 $0.840 $0.6700 $0.067 $0.030 $0.017 $0.590 -$0.250 -29.80% $0.8700 $0.130 $3.8000 $0.870 $0.8000 $0.080 $0.036 $0.017 $0.701 -$0.169 -19.38% $0.8800 $0.120 $4.6800 $0.880 $0.9200 $0.092 $0.041 $0.018 $0.804 -$0.076 -8.61% $0.8900 $0.110 $5.5700 $0.890 $1.0300 $0.103 $0.046 $0.018 $0.898 $0.008 0.95% $0.9400 $0.060 $6.5100 $0.940 $1.0900 $0.109 $0.049 $0.019 $0.951 $0.011 1.14% $0.9400 $0.060 $7.4500 $0.940 $1.1500 $0.115 $0.052 $0.019 $1.002 $0.062 6.60% $0.9500 $0.050 $8.4000 $0.950 $1.2000 $0.120 $0.054 $0.019 $1.045 $0.095 10.00% $0.980 $0.020 $9.3800 $0.980 $1.2200 $0.122 $0.055 $0.020 $1.063 $0.083 8.44% $0.970 $0.030 $10.3500 $0.970 $1.2500 $0.125 $0.056 $0.019 $1.088 $0.118 12.18% $0.950 $0.050 $11.3000 $0.950 $1.3000 $0.130 $0.058 $0.019 $1.130 $0.180 19.00% $0.960 $0.040 $12.2600 $0.960 $1.3400 $0.134 $0.060 $0.019 $1.165 $0.205 21.34% $0.970 $0.030 $13.2300 $0.970 $1.3700 $0.137 $0.062 $0.019 $1.191 $0.221 22.76% $0.990 $0.010 $14.2200 $0.990 $1.3800 $0.138 $0.062 $0.020 $1.200 $0.210 21.18% $0.980 $0.020 $15.2000 $0.980 $1.4000 $0.140 $0.063 $0.020 $1.217 $0.237 24.14% $0.980 $0.020 $16.1800 $0.980 $1.4200 $0.142 $0.064 $0.020 $1.234 $0.254 25.89% $0.990 $0.010 $17.1700 $0.990 $1.4300 $0.143 $0.064 $0.020 $1.242 $0.252 25.50% $0.990 $0.010 $18.1600 $0.990 $1.4400 $0.144 $0.065 $0.020 $1.251 $0.261 26.36% I'm not taking the time to format it properly so dwi
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Oct 16, 2015 04:28
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:49 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 16, 2015 04:36
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Yes you can. Just be aware that once the market becomes linked, and it will become linked at some unknown point in the future, there will be a massive pressure placed on the market to rationalize. What this ultimately means is the YES column for the market will be pressured to add up to $1.00 with the corresponding NOs representing that as well. If you look at the Republican primary the YESs add up to $1.86, or 186%. This means that all else being equal ALL YES SHARES in that market are overpriced by 86%. So purchasing any Yes shares is probably a bad idea unless you don't plan on holding them for very long. edit: So take Rubio for example. He's currently at $.39. Assuming all candidates are currently 'balanced' he should actually be at ~$.20 give or take a cent. Once the market is linked there will be a massive pressure on those shares to go to that price. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 04:48 on Oct 16, 2015 |
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Oct 16, 2015 04:44
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:50 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 16, 2015 04:47
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Necc0 posted:The only thing that can close the market is him submitting FEC papers. Saying he's not going to isn't sufficient for that condition to be met. Oh yeah, I figured he was saying that it was the other way (that somehow it would magically close immediately).
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Oct 16, 2015 04:57
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I feel like this will end up they way daily fantasy spots currently is - if you're not spending 8 hours a day on the site squeezing every last penny out of every market, you're a rube funneling money to the people who are.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:08
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Aliquid posted:why am i liquidating long-term shares in other markets at a loss to buy more biden NO Gyges posted:That is a good question. Don't do that. At worst liquidate at break even. I know it's a mental thing, but you need to focus on the future prospects of the shares, not what you paid for them. This is the sunk cost fallacy. If you are sitting on something that is bumping along that you don't really believe in anymore at the price its at and there is another market that is more promising, you should sell it. It doesn't matter what you paid for it. If anything, selling something at a loss is better because you won't pay the transaction fee. If something is down and that made it undervalued, then sure wait for it to return to the fair value you perceive. But if you originally misjudged something, got excited about something you shouldn't have, overpaid for it, or new info came out that changed the price, you don't want to hang onto a stinker waiting indefinitely for it to recover. Finally, a lot of the long duration markets are not very liquid, so be patient. Just because you want to unload something doesn't mean you need to give it away. If there is a wide spread between the bid and the ask, just put your offer in for something in the middle. Finally, I'm with you on Biden NO, but weird things can happen and you don't want to be so sure about something that you get in too deep. So if you are already massive into it, let it be. I'm working out of a massive hole because I made some rookie mistakes where I bet wrong on Obama's approval numbers and I was SOOOOOO sure that Carly wouldn't participate in the CNN first tier debate.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:11
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Fuschia tude posted:No, only when the market closes. He can say "no" and still potentially run after, so Nos won't get paid until 12/31/2015. (Or if he becomes mentally incapacitated or something I guess.) Ah balls, fair enough then. If he goes no, it'll just be the market drying up to watch out for
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Oct 16, 2015 05:19
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bought a cool 100 shares of BIDENNO at $.50. i can't see it going much lower than that. maybe down to low $.40s, but still worth getting now.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:28
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If history is any guide, this can go on a really long time http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/22/nyregion/how-final-curtain-fell-on-a-10-week-melodrama.html This is a fascinating read. In 1991 Mario Cuomo kept the nation waiting for months as he went back and forth, never making up his mind if he was running. The drama ended hours before the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary with 2 planes idling on the tarmac waiting so he could hand deliver the papers. They were originally going to fly to Manchester and then drive to Concord, but as the clock ran down they realized they didn't have enough time to drive so they decided to fly directly to Concord instead. Of course he never got on that plane. Can you imagine how crazy PredictIt would have been had it existed in 1991 and how much money you would have made (or lost) if all the cable news and Twitter were pumping this for 2 months?
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Oct 16, 2015 05:43
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I know it's a mental thing, but you need to focus on the future prospects of the shares, not what you paid for them. This is the sunk cost fallacy. If you are sitting on something that is bumping along that you don't really believe in anymore at the price its at and there is another market that is more promising, you should sell it. It doesn't matter what you paid for it. If anything, selling something at a loss is better because you won't pay the transaction fee. I agree, but you shouldn't just sell everything at a loss because suddenly another market looks interesting. Maybe if there's a new market that closes next week on whether the Reptillian Conspiracy will finally be uncovered and NO has 5000 shares ready to buy at 4 cents. But this is the Biden market, where the price is going to fluctuate up and down at least long enough for you to get your money out without incurring a loss from all but the most liquidity starved markets. The price has already yo-yod several times between the mid 50s and 40s since that post. quote:Finally, I'm with you on Biden NO, but weird things can happen and you don't want to be so sure about something that you get in too deep. So if you are already massive into it, let it be. I'm working out of a massive hole because I made some rookie mistakes where I bet wrong on Obama's approval numbers and I was SOOOOOO sure that Carly wouldn't participate in the CNN first tier debate. I got hosed on the Carly bet too, always plan on your bet turning out to be the dumbest thing you ever did. The only reason I have so much in Biden No right now, aside from really thinking he isn't running, is that I've made enough to cover most of the bet through previous winnings on the Biden swings.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:45
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In re to this going on a long time, I agree and just put up 35 of my shares at 50 just to de leverage. This market could be whacky for ages.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:50
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Necc0 posted:arbitrators arbitrageurs  The looming linking change is definitely keeping me out of those markets for the time being.
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Oct 16, 2015 08:26
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you guys on mobile are in for a treat!
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Oct 16, 2015 14:21
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Abel Wingnut posted:you guys on mobile are in for a treat! ???
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Oct 16, 2015 14:37
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Someone drove Warren up to 05 today 
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Oct 16, 2015 14:43
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Necc0 posted:??? PI changed how they display your performance. on mobile you only see gain/loss.
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Oct 16, 2015 14:54
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Abel Wingnut posted:PI changed how they display your performance. on mobile you only see gain/loss. I see that and I'm not on mobile  Fake edit: I see both current value of investments and gain/loss.
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Oct 16, 2015 15:01
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Abel Wingnut posted:you guys on mobile are in for a treat! My heart skipped a beat this morning when it looked like I had negative $12.00. I wondered if I somehow bought Biden NO on margin and he declared
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Oct 16, 2015 15:03
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Gimme dem Biden NO's under $50 
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Oct 16, 2015 15:36
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Zeta Taskforce posted:My heart skipped a beat this morning when it looked like I had negative $12.00. I wondered if I somehow bought Biden NO on margin and he declared Mine was worse because it was still a small positive amount, which would be exactly what happens right after a Biden declaration.
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Oct 16, 2015 16:26
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Fuschia tude posted:I see that and I'm not on mobile Same here. How is gain/loss determined? Does that mean over the last day? All time?
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Oct 16, 2015 17:50
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Checking my account this morning was the heart attack and checking this thread is the aspirin.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:05
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