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zoux posted:Go look up polling among Hispanic women about abortion. "Pew Hispanic 2012 posted:Support for abortion rights also vary by age, but not by gender. Younger Latinos are more likely than older Latinos to say abortion should be legal. A majority (53%) of Latinos ages 18 to 29 support abortion rights. By contrast, majorities of Latinos ages 30 to 49 (51%), ages 50 to 64 (58%) and ages 65 and older (63%) say abortion should be illegal in “all cases” or “most cases.” Meanwhile, half (50%) of Hispanic men and half (52%) of Hispanic women say abortion should mainly be illegal. " Pew, 2014 posted:Looking at all Americans, regardless of their voter registration status, whites (54%) are more likely than blacks (47%) and Hispanics (44%) to think abortion should be legal. Among all Hispanics, 51% think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, including 20% who think abortion should never be allowed. You can't rely on female votes to win an election anyway. Abortion as an issue is a very hot-button topic among Hispanics (never mind the US as a whole), and staking out a strong position on such a polarizing issue is not very good politics if you want to win the most votes. edit: oops, hosed up a few urls Chelb fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Oct 16, 2015 |
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Oct 16, 2015 05:26
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Trabisnikof posted:The "dream team" didn't do much better. Running as a populist would have.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:31
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Rollofthedice posted:You can't rely on female votes to win an election anyway. Abortion as an issue is a very hot-button topic among Hispanics (never mind the US as a whole), and staking out a strong position on such a polarizing issue is not very good politics if you want to win the most votes. Another thing to consider is that Hispanic voting trends are very different from state to state. Crowsbeak posted:Running as a populist would have. Not really. She could have failed as a populist, a progressive, or centrist. Doesn't really matter. There just wasn't a way for Democrats to mobilize enough minorities and they still couldn't do it without turning off too many white people.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:42
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Trabisnikof posted:Another thing to consider is that Hispanic voting trends are very different from state to state. That's probably true. I can't seem to find polls about Hispanic views on Abortion in Texas specifically though. My Google skills have failed me.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:46
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Rollofthedice posted:That's probably true. I can't seem to find polls about Hispanic views on Abortion in Texas specifically though. My Google skills have failed me. Well, I do know that Hispanic Democrats have lost out to Hispanic Republicans over Abortion, but yeah I don't have any polls of the top of my head either.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:48
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Populism is a dangerous game because the line between populism and demagoguery is extremely thin.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:49
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What are some good US politics Twitters to follow?
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Oct 16, 2015 05:57
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FourLeaf posted:What are some good US politics Twitters to follow? All the ones in the OP would be a solid start. E: didn't mean to sound like a jerk. Any political journalist or anchor will also at least post about current topics, whether it's particularly valuable insight or not.
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Oct 16, 2015 06:00
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Trabisnikof posted:
I think Grimes could have in KY. Davis was doomed, but she could have done better then the pathetic result/
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Oct 16, 2015 06:31
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fade5 posted:Jim Webb. It's a shame because I kind of took a liking to Webb during the debate, if not as a potential presidential candidate then as a person. It's too bad his incessant hammering away about time is what people will remember. Okay, it's the 2nd biggest thing people will remember Electric Bugaloo posted:I don't think Trump needs all that. Think about what sort of a debater he is Why, a master debater of course
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Oct 16, 2015 06:50
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Epic High Five posted:It's a shame because I kind of took a liking to Webb during the debate, if not as a potential presidential candidate then as a person. It's too bad his incessant hammering away about time is what people will remember. Webb will have a place in the next Democratic administration. I got the feeling he falls into the operate class. Perhaps good at getting "things" done, not so great from an ideological stand point. I
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Oct 16, 2015 06:56
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Personal anecdotes are dumb, but as a hispanic growing up in TX living in black/hispanic communities, I have no idea where people get that hispanics are more progressive on views like abortion. It's also personally laughable every time I see people talk about TX turning blue.
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Oct 16, 2015 06:58
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BlueBlazer posted:Webb will have a place in the next Democratic administration. I got the feeling he falls into the operate class. Perhaps good at getting "things" done, not so great from an ideological stand point. I That's good to hear. Sounds like he's a legit war hero and very proud of it so it's probably best he doesn't end up in the position to get swiftboated.
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Oct 16, 2015 07:03
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Fojar38 posted:Populism is a dangerous game because the line between populism and demagoguery is extremely thin. We're already well into demagoguery
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Oct 16, 2015 07:12
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Hollismason posted:It'd be nice if we could get a gay or lesbian into the VP spot for the Julian Castro Presidency. Then it'd be First African American president, First Woman President, First Native Spanish Speaker President, First Gay President. Not to nitpick but Castro doesn't speak Spanish. Although it's been reported that he's having classes.
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Oct 16, 2015 07:23
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Fojar38 posted:Populism is a dangerous game because the line between populism and demagoguery is extremely thin. Yeah it would be shocking if there were any demagoguery during an election. So I'm sure people will steer clear of voting for anyone like that in a primary.
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Oct 16, 2015 08:32
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I get the feeling Blue Texas will be kind of like Peak Oil.
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Oct 16, 2015 11:36
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BlueBlazer posted:Webb will have a place in the next Democratic administration. I got the feeling he falls into the operate class. Perhaps good at getting "things" done, not so great from an ideological stand point. I That's what they said about him in 2008, yet here we are
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Oct 16, 2015 13:24
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mlmp08 posted:I get the feeling Blue Texas will be kind of like Peak Oil. or Blue California.
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Oct 16, 2015 13:25
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Epic High Five posted:Why, a master debater of course Is there any way we can pay off the host of the CNBC debate to get Cruz to say this? He's the kind of guy that needs an entire crowd of supporters to laugh at him. mlmp08 posted:I get the feeling Blue Texas will be kind of like Peak Oil. Too bad Ann Richards' daughter is busy running Planned Parenthood.
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Oct 16, 2015 13:53
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:Personal anecdotes are dumb, but as a hispanic growing up in TX living in black/hispanic communities, I have no idea where people get that hispanics are more progressive on views like abortion. Hispanics broke almost evenly for Abbott and Davis in 2014, which was the big shocker. BGTX has relied on hispanics voting overwhelmingly Democrat but that didn't happen. There's a lot of reasons why Davis lost that go past "Hispanics didn't come out for a pro-choice white candidate" but anytime someone starts predicting a blue Texas in five years, keep 2014 in mind.
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Oct 16, 2015 13:57
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zoux posted:Hispanics broke almost evenly for Abbott and Davis in 2014, which was the big shocker. BGTX has relied on hispanics voting overwhelmingly Democrat but that didn't happen. Although this is funny because this is still an improvement compared with 2010, when Hispanics broke for the GOP ~60-40.
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Oct 16, 2015 13:59
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zoux posted:Hispanics broke almost evenly for Abbott and Davis in 2014, which was the big shocker. BGTX has relied on hispanics voting overwhelmingly Democrat but that didn't happen. Something about Off-year elections goes, here.
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Oct 16, 2015 14:00
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Also Davis didn't have Clayton "rain is like rape nothing you can do about it might as well sit back and enjoy it" Williams as her opponent like Ann Richards.
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Oct 16, 2015 14:09
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Tempest_56 posted:Here's a quick little secret for you - the bit about Hillary waffling with every slight breeze of a poll? Yeah, that's a GOP talking point. There's some truth in it (she's a career politician, they all do that, it's in the job description), but the vast, vast majority of it is only true in that the talk radio/right wing noise machine has been repeating it over and over and over for twenty-five years. It's mostly bullshit that's just ingrained itself and gets repeated by whoever her opponent is because it's a useful slur. After all, it lets them dismiss anything she says/does as purely cynical pretty easily. Well, why don't you listen to how she actually addresses that topic herself? Or rather how she doesn't. Sure, most career politicians triangulate a lot more than they'd prefer, and none of them are going to come out and say they're doing it. But gay marriage is as cut and dry and as settled an issue as exists in American politics at the moment. All she had to say was "I personally evolved around 2008 but the American public wasn't there yet" but she just can't bring herself to do it. I love Terri Gross interviews, she's great at her job. But listening to a Presidential heir-apparent lapse into word salad over a softball question like gay marriage has to be in the top 5 of her weirdest things. Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 14:20 on Oct 16, 2015 |
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Oct 16, 2015 14:11
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It's Friday, you're blowing off work, so let's spend the day freaking out over this Ipsos model that says the GOP is going to win the presidency.quote:Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways.
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Oct 16, 2015 14:32
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zoux posted:It's Friday, you're blowing off work, so let's spend the day freaking out over this Ipsos model that says the GOP is going to win the presidency. "We weighted it as heavily against the democrats as we could, please like and share"
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Oct 16, 2015 14:33
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:"We weighted it as heavily against the democrats as we could, please like and share" We also ignored all contemporary and social context surrounding these past elections. DONALD TRUMP IS UNDER YOUR BED AND HE'S GOING TO BE PRESIDENT.
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Oct 16, 2015 14:34
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I think they forgot the RAFC effect when doing their predictions.
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Oct 16, 2015 14:35
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zoux posted:We also ignored all contemporary and social context surrounding these past elections. DONALD TRUMP IS UNDER YOUR BED AND HE'S GOING TO BE PRESIDENT. REPOST THIS 5 TIMES OR HE WILL BADOONGLE YOUR BADANGLE! ftfy
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Oct 16, 2015 14:41
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/16/morning-plum-poor-helpless-john-boehner-has-run-out-of-excuses/ http://thehill.com/policy/finance/257096-debt-limit-pressure-grows-for-gop Really?
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Oct 16, 2015 14:48
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zoux posted:Hispanics broke almost evenly for Abbott and Davis in 2014, which was the big shocker. BGTX has relied on hispanics voting overwhelmingly Democrat but that didn't happen. It was also very much a case of many Hispanics not voting. Hispanics went crazy for her in 08 and many of them were diehard Hillary supporters. I do remember the look of disappointment on all their faces when at the TX democratic convention and she gave her bowing out speech. In any cases, Hispanics usually have abysmal turnout, and I'm still not sure that Hillary will change that.
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Oct 16, 2015 14:53
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Mr. Nice! posted:Also Davis didn't have Clayton "rain is like rape nothing you can do about it might as well sit back and enjoy it" Williams as her opponent like Ann Richards. Also, Ann Richards was a charisma supernova and Texas As gently caress.
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Oct 16, 2015 14:54
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Zeroisanumber posted:Also, Ann Richards was a charisma supernova and Texas As gently caress. She was still losing handily to Williams if it wasn't for his big dumb mouth.
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Oct 16, 2015 14:55
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/16/morning-plum-poor-helpless-john-boehner-has-run-out-of-excuses/  I dunno who this "John Galt" fella is, but he makes a lot of sense.
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Oct 16, 2015 14:59
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zoux posted:
its incredibly chill how none of these dumbfucks have a clue what kind of fire they're playing with.
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Oct 16, 2015 15:01
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:its incredibly chill how none of these dumbfucks have a clue what kind of fire they're playing with. Yeah and your vote counts the same as his.
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Oct 16, 2015 15:02
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zoux posted:Yeah and your vote counts the same as his. less so, he might live in a swing state.
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Oct 16, 2015 15:03
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zoux posted:It's Friday, you're blowing off work, so let's spend the day freaking out over this Ipsos model that says the GOP is going to win the presidency. the data model is just a spreadsheet that says "Um Republican" and then some pixel art of megaman.
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Oct 16, 2015 15:04
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zoux posted:
I don't think I have seen a main street that didn't have at least half a dozen closed shops.
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