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zoux posted:It's Friday, you're blowing off work, so let's spend the day freaking out over this Ipsos model that says the GOP is going to win the presidency. There were similar articles posted in 2012 by university professors saying they had 100% accuracy since 1980. It got widespread media coverage. What they do is change their model each election year to match random metrics since 1980 and call it a perfect model. The authors revel in the media attention and act very confident about their predictions. After the 2012 election I emailed them at their personal emails and got no response.
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Oct 16, 2015 17:43
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ComradeCosmobot posted:In addition, there's been no sign that Hillary will be able to benefit from Obama's GOTV organization. In fact, as the midterms have shown, it's entirely possible that she will not be given the keys and have to build one from scratch. quote:Meanwhile, you can be sure that Republicans have learned from the failures of Orca and are working hard to make sure it works better next time.
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Oct 16, 2015 17:43
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If there's anything the Republicans are good at, it's learning from history.
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Oct 16, 2015 17:45
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For your pleasure, your five minute of hate.quote:t has long been assumed that Henry Kissinger “supported” the Vietnam War throughout the 1960s—and that this was one of the reasons Richard Nixon offered him the job of national security adviser. This view is incorrect. As his private papers and diaries make clear, Kissinger realized by 1966 at the latest that the U.S. intervention in defense of South Vietnam was a doomed enterprise and that only a diplomatic solution would end the conflict. quote:After briefings in Washington before his trip, he jotted down some revealing notes. “Must realize,” he wrote, “that only possible outcome is limited one … in which VC [Viet Cong, the Communist guerrillas] have some kind of role.” Such a compromise solution was the only good option available. Outright victory in South Vietnam was unattainable because “we know nothing about nation-building.” Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/henry-kissinger-vietnam-diaries-213236#ixzz3okZFPuzj Reminder: helped spike negotiations aimed at ending the War in 1968 to help Nixon's election. Also, Cambodia.
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Oct 16, 2015 17:46
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A Winner is Jew posted:Can it be hard labor and then guillotine? Guillotine first, then frankenstein his body to do hard labor, then re-executed.
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Oct 16, 2015 17:49
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ComradeCosmobot posted:
Where are you getting this from? Most of the principals behind Obama's org has lined up behind Clinton, including a few that began rebuilding it shortly after 2012.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:01
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Mitt Romney posted:There were similar articles posted in 2012 by university professors saying they had 100% accuracy since 1980. It got widespread media coverage. What they do is change their model each election year to match random metrics since 1980 and call it a perfect model. Fun fact, the author of that study was a professor at my university whom I worked for over the course of my final two semesters. In a way, he probably helped by issuing his prediction in August, which likely reassured Mitt and Ryan and made them overly confident in the final 6 weeks leading up to the general. Nice guy, but I won't ever reference him again.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:02
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Shageletic posted:For your pleasure, your five minute of hate. Won a peace prize for that poo poo to. 
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Oct 16, 2015 18:02
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zoux posted:It's Friday, you're blowing off work, so let's spend the day freaking out over this Ipsos model that says the GOP is going to win the presidency. Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
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Oct 16, 2015 18:05
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Shageletic posted:Where are you getting this from? Most of the principals behind Obama's org has lined up behind Clinton, including a few that began rebuilding it shortly after 2012. I hadn't heard anything and was extrapolating from the fact that OFA has historically not assisted with GOTV during midterms. If this isn't the case, then that's one less thing that is structurally working against Hillary, but the bigger issues of base motivation and who's pulling dark money remain to put Hillary at only a small structural advantage over Republicans (if not at nearly even odds) before you even factor in the largest determiners of elections (economy) that we won't even know until next year. ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Oct 16, 2015 |
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Oct 16, 2015 18:05
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ComradeCosmobot posted:I hadn't heard anything and was extrapolating from the fact that OFA has historically not assisted with GOTV during midterms. Here's a start: http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/emerging-clinton-campaign-draws-heavily-obama-alumni#54790 Can't dig up more exhaustive articles I've posted earlier, but they're numerous online. Basically, Clinton has been gambling on the Obama GOTV since before her campaign started. Articles about where former high up Obama campaign honchos were gonna end up were epidemic last year. The other factors you mentioned, as you yourself have noted, are largely unknowable as of yet. But there's nothing shown that hints at Clinton's campaign being significantly handicapped compared to Obama's on a structural level. Now if you want to talk about specific personalities close to Clinton....that's a whole nother thing....
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Oct 16, 2015 18:14
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pathetic little tramp posted:Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy That was August 1st I think.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:14
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ComradeCosmobot posted:
There's this funny guy called Bernie Sanders who's doing a great job with base motivation.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:14
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Lessail posted:Hillary supporters are just as bad as Bernie supporters HIllary supporters, on this here forum, don't call Bernie names and use republican talking points to attack him, hth.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:15
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WelpNancy Reagan posted:“The time for a woman to serve as our President has come – really, now is the time – and I think the idea of having a former First Lady as the leader of the free world is really quite a marvelous notion. I want Hillary to win. Even though I admire two of the current potential Republican nominees, I have no interest in seeing either of them lead this country.” http://nextgenerationamerica.com/2015/04/10/nancy-reagan-endorses-clinton/ It won't mean anything, really, but it's nice to see even the Widow Reagan doesn't believe in the Republicans this time around.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:15
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Kalman posted:House Rules. That'd be a weird loving situation if Kevin McCarthy was on the list and then he somehow ended up acting Speaker while Republicans try and unfuck themselves.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:16
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At least Ronnie died before he found out he was married to a RINO.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:17
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Eschers Basement posted:Welp This is good for B
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Oct 16, 2015 18:18
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I'll be honest I thought Nancy Reagan was dead.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:19
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It won't mean anything because it's a fake story. http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/04/bloomberg-falls-for-fake-nancy-reagan-report-205356
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Oct 16, 2015 18:22
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Hollismason posted:I'll be honest I thought Nancy Reagan was dead. I think spouses of world leaders stopped being buried with them sometime after Egypt.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:23
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Armyman25 posted:It won't mean anything because it's a fake story. 
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Oct 16, 2015 18:24
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Gravel Gravy posted:I think spouses of world leaders stopped being buried with them sometime after Egypt. The Ceausescus were buried together.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:24
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zoux posted:The Ceausescus were buried together. I meant more alive. Edit: I don't believe a dead spouse could make the journey to valhalla
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Oct 16, 2015 18:26
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computer parts posted:There's this funny guy called Bernie Sanders who's doing a great job with base motivation. If the email defense and handshake at he debate did not convince you that the long-term game Bernie Sanders is playing is to force Clinton to the left and motivate the base to vote for her then, I'm sorry, but you've left reality behind. Bernie Sanders is playing at being a kingmaker, not the king.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:26
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Eschers Basement posted:Welp no
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Oct 16, 2015 18:28
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How the gently caress did Bloomberg fall for such a blatantly false story, no way in gently caress would Nancy Reagan ever support someone like Hillary, she's a Libra rising in Jupiter's third house, come on guys.
pathetic little tramp fucked around with this message at 18:31 on Oct 16, 2015 |
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Oct 16, 2015 18:29
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Gravel Gravy posted:I think spouses of world leaders stopped being buried with them sometime after Egypt. Pretty sure the Louis couple is buried together. Well at least the two of them are next to each other is what I mean by that.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:29
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The Shilla kingdom (now Korea) was also buying royalty spouses next to them in a giant mound next to the kings giant mound a few hundred years later till they got destroyed by the Mongols.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:35
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Today, on twitter: Chuck Grassley's Wide Stance  joementum lives, forgets how twitter works 
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Oct 16, 2015 18:39
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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/poll-nh-214885#ixzz3okiwC2TH Politico all over the place today.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:46
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Fried Chicken posted:As a senator Obama was against raising the debt ceiling In the "let's make the President's party vote for it while we score cheap political points because gently caress those guys" way, yeah. But that's fine, that's expected political theater. It's the Suicide Caucus's unwillingness to play that game that's the heart of the issue here. If John Boehner put the Debt Limit up for a vote, nobody would really have a problem if the Freedom Caucus wanted to speak against it. Hell, they can have a 100 hundreds of screaming about it on the floor of Congress if they want to, because there are enough votes from Democrats and moderate Republicans to make sure it passes. Obama could rail against the profligacy of the Bush Administration all he wanted because the debt limit would be raised with whipped Republican votes and a handful of Dems if necessary.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:47
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:HIllary supporters, on this here forum, don't call Bernie names and use republican talking points to attack him, hth. lol as soon as Bernie has an ambassador killed to cover up an affair, you can talk.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:47
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:lol as soon as Bernie has an ambassador killed to cover up an affair, you can talk. Whoa.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:49
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Eschers Basement posted:Welp You should have known this was dumb when the publish date was all the way back in April.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:49
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:lol as soon as Bernie has an ambassador killed to cover up an affair, you can talk. That's just being a good wife and taking care of your husband. Noble attributes, if you ask me. Edit: I thought this was a Vince Foster joke at first. Mr. Nice! fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Oct 16, 2015 |
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Oct 16, 2015 18:50
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:Today, on twitter: I maintain the reason Joe's been absent for so long is he drank himself into a stupor to avoid coming to grips with the fact that Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination. On that note, pass the scotch.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:50
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:lol as soon as Bernie has an ambassador killed to cover up an affair, you can talk. 
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Oct 16, 2015 18:50
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:lol as soon as Bernie has an ambassador killed to cover up an affair, you can talk. 
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Oct 16, 2015 18:51
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But no, you're right, these Bernie guys got their heads on straight.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:51
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