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I'm glad I'm not the only one who changed their underwear twice today.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:07
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platzapS posted:Same here. How is gain/loss determined? Does that mean over the last day? All time? It looks like it's just taking how much you paid for your current shares and comparing that to the current price.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:16
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Gyges posted:It looks like it's just taking how much you paid for your current shares and comparing that to the current price. Oh that makes much more sense, thanks.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:26
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Gyges posted:It looks like it's just taking how much you paid for your current shares and comparing that to the current price. Yeah I'm up overall but because my Obama poll shares (ugh gently caress polls seriously, that's literally gambling) had gone down I was showing -5.00.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:32
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I don't like a current gain/loss; it's not really my style of trading and I find it distracting.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:36
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The Obama polls are 100% coin flip gambling fests. I now only tip toe in on Fridays and bet NO on the tranche that is mathematically impossible. I am fine with a 1 or 2% return. Reading the comments on there, and the Biden boosters are the worst, followed by the Bernie ones. I am reminded compared to the rest of the internet, SA is a lonely island of sanity. Although our Bernie ones are pretty bad too.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:41
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I definitely prefer the total one to the one that says I'm -$80 right now.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:46
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Yeah, I really don't care if I'm up or down at this second on my currently owned shares. It only matters when I sell them, and that only matters on that market, not the overall total of my ownership.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:06
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Holy crap, Biden YES is back up to .60
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Oct 16, 2015 19:07
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ˆˆˆˆˆBiden YES is incredible, the comments section is convinced he's running when all the news stories sound like he's assessing, not hiring. Yeah polls are loving dumb, literally the only winning strategy is to buy, then sell off once you've made ten cents a share if that. This one just had a spike from 10 to 90 in three different markets: https://www.predictit.org/Market/1618/What-will-Obama's-average-job-approval-be-at-end-of-day-October-16 pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 19:13 on Oct 16, 2015 |
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Oct 16, 2015 19:09
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what the heck the biden nos are back to $.40? zero sense.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:14
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cnn gonna cnn ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Oct 16, 2015 19:16
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What people are really turned on about is the campaign manager is saying if Biden will run, he's gonna run on middle class values. He's a campaign manager, that's how he talks.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:19
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I don't really have credibility on this after my last rumor did not pan out (re: specific date), but I still invested very heavily in Biden after several of my friends were contacted to work on his campaign (not draft Biden). I heard from multiple people about one particular prominent pick to run their organizing program that also ran the field program for Obama in a significant battleground state in 2012. Which doesn't 100% mean that he will run, but this combined with the recent strategy email from Kaufman, the relative radio silence, and the continuing delay make me think an announcement will happen and it will happen soon. In particular: at this juncture, there is no reason to wait unless you are announcing. The right day to say "no" is today, because holding off is a distraction on your ability to live your life and do your job. The right day to say yes is whenever your team deems is most strategic to do so, which can be any time in the next couple weeks. Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 19:28 on Oct 16, 2015 |
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Oct 16, 2015 19:21
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He could definitely still run. It would be a disastrous decision for him, but he could do it. I think our thread is mostly banking on how bad of an idea it would be, but where we may be failing is that Biden may not be the best idea-haver of all time.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:27
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I guess I disagree on that. I think his path to the nomination is plausible, even if it's not exactly easy. He's always been an effective campaigner, but he's always lacked two essential things: money and stature. Being a sitting VP gives him both of those.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:35
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:50 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 16, 2015 19:41
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Concerned Citizen posted:I guess I disagree on that. I think his path to the nomination is plausible, even if it's not exactly easy. He's always been an effective campaigner, but he's always lacked two essential things: money and stature. Being a sitting VP gives him both of those. He will have essentially zero money compared to Hillary. Hell, compared to Bernie, even. I don't understand how he could run when the party has already decided. He is an elder statesman; the ultimate insider.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:46
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Damnit I should have waited to max out my Bidens. I'm bad at this game. Still hoping to double my money!
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Oct 16, 2015 19:48
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Right. This is finally the realization I came to. He could still run, but with the debate done with, I believe his window of opportunity to achieve success has closed and each passing day only serves to make a campaign victory that much harder. Right now he's gotta be realizing that his desire to run (which he surely has) is being trumped by the realities of the political landscape. It would be unprecedented in modern politics for someone to run and win with this late of an entry, but I would say he is the only possible person that COULD jump in at this stage and win. I think he could effectively compete by raising $20m or so between now and Feb 1 which is more than do-able. He doesn't need to raise more money than Hillary or Bernie to win. The path is not as easy as Clinton's, but once he goes in I would expect a polling bump that would make him to be far more competitive than he currently is. I think it's a very plausible path to the nomination.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:52
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That's my rationale. I actually don't know if Biden will run or not, but I do know that he has absolutely zero shot at the nomination. There is no way he can assemble a majority of Democratic delegates based on the demographics of the party today.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:58
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:50 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 16, 2015 20:03
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I totally get where you're coming from and shared the same view up until this last Tuesday. Had Clinton performed poorly during the debate, I'd still be leaning towards that view, but she was pretty commanding and has effectively boxed Biden out. I think the final go-no go decision was made prior to the debate, probably the weekend before, and there's not really a lot of incentive for anyone to change course at this juncture. The debate is an obstacle, but hardly one that can't be overcome. Might he have been better served by announcing earlier? Maybe. Probably. Does that mean he can't compete against Hillary? I don't think so - after all, this campaign still has months to go. The debate was just a single moment that will fade. The fundamentals that were dragging Hillary down (and boosting Biden) prior to the debate still exist. In another sense, Biden is already running. He just hasn't announced it.
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Oct 16, 2015 20:14
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Concerned Citizen posted:It would be unprecedented in modern politics for someone to run and win with this late of an entry, but I would say he is the only possible person that COULD jump in at this stage and win. I think he could effectively compete by raising $20m or so between now and Feb 1 which is more than do-able. He doesn't need to raise more money than Hillary or Bernie to win. People like the idea of Biden, but once he jumps in they'll be going off the reality of Biden. He'll have to steal votes from Hillary while all the things that kept him from really being in the hunt for the nomination the last couple runs become the focus. Hillary did well enough in the debate to shore up her previously sketchy popularity. The Republicans have shot themselves in the foot by publicly gaffing into admitting Benghazi and the emails are just political theater. Obama wouldn't endorse his mom before she gets the delegates. Biden is super old. And the money is going to be much harder to raise for a campaign announcing so late that they've already hurt their chances just by waiting so long.
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Oct 16, 2015 20:22
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Gyges posted:People like the idea of Biden, but once he jumps in they'll be going off the reality of Biden. He'll have to steal votes from Hillary while all the things that kept him from really being in the hunt for the nomination the last couple runs become the focus. I think you're setting the threshold for a Biden run too high. He only needs a plausible path, not a probable path, to run. That plausibility still exists. Remember, this is a guy who ran for President against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards in 2008. He has a lot of reason to see his position as much better now than it was - against a smaller slate of candidates with much less star power, and he's a sitting VP.
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Oct 16, 2015 20:36
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Concerned Citizen posted:I think you're setting the threshold for a Biden run too high. He only needs a plausible path, not a probable path, to run. That plausibility still exists. Remember, this is a guy who ran for President against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards in 2008. He has a lot of reason to see his position as much better now than it was - against a smaller slate of candidates with much less star power, and he's a sitting VP. And got fourth place.
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Oct 16, 2015 20:38
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Aliquid posted:And got fourth place. Actually fifth. He finished behind Richardson in IA, then withdrew. The point is that he has run for president with vastly less hope of winning before, there's no reason to think he's suddenly become cautious about running.
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Oct 16, 2015 20:41
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Concerned Citizen posted:Actually fifth. He finished behind Richardson in IA, then withdrew. The point is that he has run for president with vastly less hope of winning before, there's no reason to think he's suddenly become cautious about running. Except "suddenly" is nearly a decade in this case. He is now 8 years older, has been Vice President for that entire time, and his son just died. He is also politically to the right of Hillary and is pretty terrible at putting his foot in his mouth. He is super dreamy and I love him but I don't think he is going to run for President.
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Oct 16, 2015 20:51
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Concerned Citizen posted:I think you're setting the threshold for a Biden run too high. He only needs a plausible path, not a probable path, to run. That plausibility still exists. Remember, this is a guy who ran for President against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards in 2008. He has a lot of reason to see his position as much better now than it was - against a smaller slate of candidates with much less star power, and he's a sitting VP. It doesn't matter what I think, or any of us think. There is a plausible path for him to run. There are people who want him to. He will get millions of votes. But his first day could be his best. He risks his legacy as a popular vice president who served the nation admirably while dealing with personal tragedy and becoming another candidate who gets 3% in Iowa. The moment he enters, the gloves come off. He was advising Obama not to to go after the Pakistan Osama raid. There is likely other advice that he tried to give that if followed would have turned out bad. Hillary will not be afraid to do what is needed to cut him down and couldn't be in a better position to know his weak points. To have this intra-administration fight played out weakens the entire Obama brand and tarnishes the legacy of the administration he served in and makes Hillary a weaker general election candidate. This is not original thought and you know that prominent Democrats are telling the same thing to him privately.
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Oct 16, 2015 20:54
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Concerned Citizen posted:I think you're setting the threshold for a Biden run too high. He only needs a plausible path, not a probable path, to run. That plausibility still exists. Remember, this is a guy who ran for President against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards in 2008. He has a lot of reason to see his position as much better now than it was - against a smaller slate of candidates with much less star power, and he's a sitting VP. I feel like this would be a better argument a few months ago. He got blown out of the water in 2008 after he'd prepared for the run. Now he's going to try and go against Hillary after she's been preparing for the last 8 years while having to find a way to get to the left of her. Biden's also a smart enough guy to know that a lot of the clamor for his entrance is media wanting a horse race, people who have something to gain from his entry, and people who are going to be a lot more skeptical of his run after they're reminded of some of his positions. It's going to be a lot of questions like Chafee got about Glass-Steagal, the war on drugs, and student loans.
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Oct 16, 2015 21:24
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LMAO at the Biden market. And to think some goons were saying the Biden fans had finally wised up  Looking forward to NO dropping to like 0.10 when Biden announces that he for sure under no uncertain terms will not be running.
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Oct 16, 2015 21:26
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Zeta Taskforce posted:This is not original thought and you know that prominent Democrats are telling the same thing to him privately. Even if I wasn't in this race with my wallet, I'd desperately want him not to enter for the sole reason of never wanting to hear about Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill and the War on Crime ever again. And when they do inevitably come up, Biden really will end up looking like just another centrist white guy. There's just not room for another Clinton on the stage.
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Oct 16, 2015 21:34
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Gyges posted:I feel like this would be a better argument a few months ago. He got blown out of the water in 2008 after he'd prepared for the run. Now he's going to try and go against Hillary after she's been preparing for the last 8 years while having to find a way to get to the left of her. Biden's also a smart enough guy to know that a lot of the clamor for his entrance is media wanting a horse race, people who have something to gain from his entry, and people who are going to be a lot more skeptical of his run after they're reminded of some of his positions. I mean, I'm not a Biden fan. I just am pretty positive he's going to run because he has done nothing to indicate anything other than the fact that he is currently running for president. His path is plausible, he can raise money. He is contacting potential staff. He is contacting politicals in early states. He is contacting donors. He has no reason to wait to announce a "no." If the only argument against him is that he will probably lose - well, I think that doesn't weigh well against the evidence otherwise. One is analysis of public sentiment, the other is based on what the Vice President is actually doing.
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Oct 16, 2015 21:50
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He is doing literally nothing to indicate he is "currently" running for president.
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Oct 16, 2015 22:01
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Aliquid posted:He is doing literally nothing to indicate he is "currently" running for president. He has very clearly laid the groundwork for a run. He has done everything you would do if you were running except actually announce.
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Oct 16, 2015 22:04
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Concerned Citizen posted:He has very clearly laid the groundwork for a run. He has done everything you would do if you were running except actually announce. He's doing everything except going to debates, giving his stump speech, doing town hall discussions in early states, fundraising, ad buys. But other than that he's doing everything
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Oct 16, 2015 22:16
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Zeta Taskforce posted:He's doing everything except going to debates, giving his stump speech, doing town hall discussions in early states, fundraising, ad buys. But other than that he's doing everything He hired a staff and hasn't said no, what more do you want out of the guy?
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Oct 16, 2015 22:20
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Zeta Taskforce posted:He's doing everything except going to debates, giving his stump speech, doing town hall discussions in early states, fundraising, ad buys. But other than that he's doing everything Obviously, he can't spend/raise money until he files, and he can't do that until he announces. quote:He is contacting potential staff. He is contacting politicals in early states. He is contacting donors. What was Hillary Clinton doing in January of this year? Giving paid speeches behind closed doors. Didn't do any overt campaign activity right up until she filed, except for the above stuff I just mentioned. I'll also point out that Draft Biden has managed to outraise Martin O'Malley 2-to-1 without even a candidate behind it and made an ad buy during the debate. An ad made by Mark Putnam, who is also a longtime Biden consultant. I don't think Draft Biden has been raising from randos on the Internet - there are serious donors behind it. I mean, if you want to invest in Biden No, sure. I feel very certain he will run, though, and he will announce it soon. I think you guys are just ignoring some clear indicators.
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Oct 16, 2015 22:27
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Concerned Citizen posted:I mean, if you want to invest in Biden No, sure. I feel very certain he will run, though, and he will announce it soon. I think you guys are just ignoring some clear indicators. You could still make like $600 if you bet $850 today.
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Oct 16, 2015 22:41
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EngineerSean posted:You could still make like $600 if you bet $850 today. I put $500 in the other day at 49 cents.
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Oct 16, 2015 22:51
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