PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

«‹›354 »

EngineerSean: Feb 9, 2004; by zen death robot

I'm pretty much all tied up in the Chaffe NO and Webb NO bet for worst polling bump from debate, but Bernie YES at 80 and Hilary YES at 10 seems like a pretty good bet for worst polling bump from debate as well.

# ? Oct 18, 2015 23:14

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 13, 2024 21:40

Zeta Taskforce: Jun 27, 2002

Gyges posted:

It was up to 55 earlier. This is the market that must not stabilize.

It's fun to play the swings. I sold 10 at 50 a few hours ago. I'm trying to buy 25 at 41 right now.

I've been trying to lighten my Chafee NO. I want to be exposed to it, but not over exposed. It's unlikely, but depending on how RCP drops their polls and what comes out in the next couple days, Bernie might bump up a bit over where he started the week. Webb had a couple polls come out where he wasn't zero and Hillary is up with her performance.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 00:04

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Zeta Taskforce posted:

It's fun to play the swings. I sold 10 at 50 a few hours ago. I'm trying to buy 25 at 41 right now.

I've been trying to lighten my Chafee NO. I want to be exposed to it, but not over exposed. It's unlikely, but depending on how RCP drops their polls and what comes out in the next couple days, Bernie might bump up a bit over where he started the week. Webb had a couple polls come out where he wasn't zero and Hillary is up with her performance.

I'd think that if they drop any polls in the next two days it's going to be because they just got new ones in, so that's it's own crapshoot. Any new poll that is post debate is highly likely to be favorable to the 3 other guys just because they're all so low and no one had ever heard of them. Of course there's very little chance that any poll coming in for Bernie would be near the one dropping off, so he is likely to rise.

Of course RCP gonna do what they do so double who the gently caress knows. The polls would be a whole lot better if we were getting polls at a rate like we used to in previous presidential contests.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 00:19

Zeta Taskforce: Jun 27, 2002

Gyges posted:

Of course RCP gonna do what they do so double who the gently caress knows. The polls would be a whole lot better if we were getting polls at a rate like we used to in previous presidential contests.

Also, Biden makes everything more unpredicatble. To be fair to RCP and polls, we are still 13 months away so we shouldn't expect huge frequency yet and somewhere between 99.9999% and 100% of the population doesn't have money tied up in guessing what polls are going to drop off.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 00:28

Fuschia tude: Dec 26, 2004; THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

Gyges posted:

Of course RCP gonna do what they do so double who the gently caress knows. The polls would be a whole lot better if we were getting polls at a rate like we used to in previous presidential contests.

To be fair, this isn't a presidential contest yet, it's still two nomination contests. I wasn't on Intrade back in the day; was there as much frenzy around the 2012 or 2008 nomination contests?

# ? Oct 19, 2015 00:35

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

This is the last week I am concerned Biden might announce. After this I'm home free.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 07:04

EngineerSean: Feb 9, 2004; by zen death robot

Looks like the debate poll market is turning on its head. Sell your Chafee NO for biggest loser shares!

EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 12:23 on Oct 19, 2015

# ? Oct 19, 2015 12:21

User Error: Aug 31, 2006

Don't gently caress me Joe

# ? Oct 19, 2015 12:29

District Selectman: Jan 22, 2012; by Lowtax

EngineerSean posted:

Looks like the debate poll market is turning on its head. Sell your Chafee NO for biggest loser shares!

drat, a Biden-less poll !

# ? Oct 19, 2015 14:43

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

According to CNBC Biden is officially making his decision within the next 48 hours. Which they followed up with another tweet saying he's missed past self-imposed deadlines.

So it's over 2 days for sure, well maybe, but totally according to sources, unless...

Apparently other reports are that he's just making a decision and not necessarily an announcement.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 15:19

Full Battle Rattle: Aug 29, 2009; As long as the times refuse to change, we're going to make a hell of a racket.

Gyges posted:

According to CNBC Biden is officially making his decision within the next 48 hours. Which they followed up with another tweet saying he's missed past self-imposed deadlines.

So it's over 2 days for sure, well maybe, but totally according to sources, unless...

Apparently other reports are that he's just making a decision and not necessarily an announcement.

I think this is tremendously amusing to him at this point, to be able to dick with the news media the way they've always dicked with the administration.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 15:26

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Full Battle Rattle posted:

I think this is tremendously amusing to him at this point, to be able to dick with the news media the way they've always dicked with the administration.

Honestly if I was Biden I probably would have been giving impromptu speeches all over the place for the last few months. Just talking about poo poo I care about and knowing that it's going to be covered live by everyone just in case I announce.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 15:38

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

EVENTS:
Vice President Joe Biden and former President Jimmy Carter will speak about the living legacy of former Vice President Walter Mondale at two Washington, D.C., events on Oct. 20. Mr. Mondale, who will be in attendance, will be honored by current and former politicians and join in discussing domestic and foreign policies on which he worked.

Announcing at this thing would be like making an engagement announcement at a wedding.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 15:54

nachos: Jun 27, 2004; Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

This looks like the last chance to get some cheap sub-40 cent NOs

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:20

Combed Thunderclap: Jan 4, 2011

At this point I'm not sure what I want more: to read the comments in the market after Biden declares he won't run, or for Biden to randomly declare in the middle of December.

I mean, I guess they aren't mutually exclusive...

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:25

abelwingnut: Dec 23, 2002

at $.34 now. jesus.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:25

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/656124056572444672

US Rep Brendan BoyleVerified account
‏@RepBrendanBoyle
I have a very good source close to Joe that tells me VP Biden will run for Prez

Kind of a weird thing for a congressman to tweet but hey

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:28

abelwingnut: Dec 23, 2002

and FOX news is reporting he's running from a few sources.

not sure what to do now...

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:30

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

My only regret is buying YES before, and not immediately after, the Democratic debate.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:33

nachos: Jun 27, 2004; Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

21 cents!

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:38

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

A couple people made some huge yes buys. Gigantic hole in the market now.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:41

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

EngineerSean posted:

Looks like the debate poll market is turning on its head. Sell your Chafee NO for biggest loser shares!

This is probably the funniest thing. Chafee somehow managing to pull off a loss there would be amazing.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:44

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

God dammit you stupid rumor mill of a media

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:46

Zeta Taskforce: Jun 27, 2002

I sold 25 Biden NO at 50 yesterday, I just bought it back right now at 25. See what happens. It feels like we are close so something but how many people expected a big announcement on Colbert?

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:46

nachos: Jun 27, 2004; Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Everything right now seems to be driven off that congressman's tweet

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:52

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

Aliquid posted:

God dammit you stupid rumor mill of a media

Looks like it's still spiking hard in either direction. They're running out of sell NO orders.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:53

Combed Thunderclap: Jan 4, 2011

Vox Nihili posted:

A couple people made some huge yes buys. Gigantic hole in the market now.

Really crazy to watch NO shares hit 21 cents and then immediately bounce back up in the 30s.

Ed Hardy, FOX News' chief White House correspondent and the person who says he has three sources telling him Biden is ready to jump in, also just retweeted this, so...

EDIT: Cross-posting from USPOL in D&D:

zoux posted:

MSNBC's source is a guy from the national fireman's union who said Biden told him he was gonna run.

The amount of hype surrounding Biden's interactions with this single union is insane.

Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 17:05 on Oct 19, 2015

# ? Oct 19, 2015 16:53

Jewel Repetition: Dec 24, 2012; Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Biden at 70/30 and I still don't believe it.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 17:06

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

Combed Thunderclap posted:

Really crazy to watch NO shares hit 21 cents and then immediately bounce back up in the 30s.

Ed Hardy, FOX News' chief White House correspondent and the person who says he has three sources telling him Biden is ready to jump in, also just retweeted this, so...

EDIT: Cross-posting from USPOL in D&D:

The amount of hype surrounding Biden's interactions with this single union is insane.

That's not MSNBC's source.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/sources-biden-announce-decision-within-48-hours

Two sources. Fox News has 3 sources. It's obviously a coordinated push by Biden's team.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 17:11

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

At this point I don't want Biden to run just to see what the gently caress this market does in a couple days.

Edit:
A helpful timeline from Vox

When will Biden decide? By August 1.
According to whom? "Two Democratic sources who have been in contact with his family," per US News & World Report.

July 18, 2015
When will Biden decide? "At the end of the summer, targeted for September."
According to whom? "People close to Biden," per the Huffington Post.

August 1, 2015
When will Biden decide? Expected by early September.
According to whom? "Confidants," per the New York Times.

August 8, 2015
When will Biden decide? A decision is expected shortly after he returns from a vacation that ends August 13.
According to whom? "His aides and supporters," per the Associated Press.

September 4, 2015
When will Biden decide? His plans "could remain unsettled well into the fall."
According to whom? Biden himself, per the Wall Street Journal.

September 10, 2015
When will Biden decide? He's extended his timetable to "late September or early October, or possibly even later."
According to whom? "Biden's aides," per AP.

October 1, 2015
When will Biden decide? "Likely" in "the second half of October."
According to whom? "people close to him," per CNN.

October 3, 2015
When will Biden decide? "As early as within the next seven to 10 days" (hyped in headline as "in the next week").
According to whom? "Three people familiar with his deliberations," per CBS News.

October 5, 2015
When will Biden decide? "Next weekend, or shortly thereafter" (hyped in headline as "weekend decision").
According to whom? "Confidants," per Politico.

October 16, 2015 (mid-afternoon)
When will Biden decide? "Announcement that he's in race could leak out Sunday or Monday."
According to whom? "Bidenworld," per New York magazine's Gabriel Sherman.

October 16, 2015 (late afternoon)
When will Biden decide? "In the coming days," and "signs point to him running," though he "could still pull back."
According to whom? "People familiar with the matter," per the Wall Street Journal.

October 19, 2015
When will Biden decide? It "could come within 48 hours."
According to whom? "Two sources," per NBC News.

Gyges has issued a correction as of 17:36 on Oct 19, 2015

# ? Oct 19, 2015 17:29

pathetic little tramp: Dec 12, 2005; by Hillary Clinton's assassins; Fallen Rib

Jamelle Bouie will go down with us if Biden makes the dumbest move in political history:

https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/656146448120201216

quote:

Jamelle Booo-eeee!Verified account
‏@jbouie
Okay, doing it. Putting my money where my mouth is and buying some shares for �no� Biden is not going to enter the race.

Honestly, the best thing will be if Biden simply doesn't say anything for the rest of the week. That would be beautiful.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 17:36

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

He should have put some more money in, it's still diving.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 17:38

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

It's probably going to keep going down for at least a few hours, more likely until tomorrow if we don't get any other reports. Among the reasons Joe shouldn't run is that the Biden Contract commenters are insufferable and any verbalized decision is too good for them.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 17:42

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

Dana Bash ✔ @DanaBashCNN
A source familiar with the process tells me Biden associates are setting up interviews for potential campaign staff positions

It's a literal 3 network blitz. Sell your no shares.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 17:44

nachos: Jun 27, 2004; Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Beaten

# ? Oct 19, 2015 17:45

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Now the time table isn't quite right

# ? Oct 19, 2015 18:02

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

Concerned Citizen posted:

Dana Bash ✔ @DanaBashCNN
A source familiar with the process tells me Biden associates are setting up interviews for potential campaign staff positions

It's a literal 3 network blitz. Sell your no shares.

There is no way I'm selling at all-time lows.

edit lol

https://twitter.com/AaronBlakeWP/status/656141717242904577

# ? Oct 19, 2015 18:03

Wanamingo: Feb 22, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

Looks like I picked the perfect time to sell half my Biden No shares yesterday, now I can buy even more while they're so low.

Aliquid posted:

There is no way I'm selling at all-time lows.

If he runs, we're going down together.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 18:08

Necc0: Jun 30, 2005; by exmarx; Broken Cake

Yeah I feel like the only reason there's more frenzy now is because everyone knows he has to make a decision before early November

# ? Oct 19, 2015 18:09

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 13, 2024 21:40

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

I just bumped my total commitment into PredictIt from $20 to $30 whole American goddamn dollars. Biden NO at .21, 40,000 shares traded just today and it's only noon.

# ? Oct 19, 2015 18:11

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

«‹›354 »