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Told you.
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Oct 21, 2015 20:15
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| # ? May 14, 2024 12:21 |
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There may still be life in the Biden market!quote:RT • 16 minutes ago
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Oct 21, 2015 20:19
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The Biden market will never die as long as benjamin ghazi lives
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Oct 21, 2015 20:22
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I disagree on Bernie being a bad investment. A lot of people on Predictit want Bernie to succeed so badly that the price will increase at the slightest news of Bernie having a chance. You just have to be ready to take advantage of that increase as soon as possible and not stay in too long.
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Oct 21, 2015 20:26
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Sold all 2000 shares for 99c
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Oct 21, 2015 20:27
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Gyges posted:There may still be life in the Biden market! There's still a couple months left where Hillary could have a heart attack or trip over a pile of classified emails and fall down the stairs. Not a truly horrible idea to throw down a single dollar on the off-chance of a huge pay-off. I'm not going to do it myself, but...  Abel Wingnut posted:so RYANNO is looking good to me. thoughts? I've got a hundred or so NO shares, for what it's worth. Also, as the Biden market demonstrated, the best PredictIt markets are the ones where you get lots of speculative news stories that push the price up and down within a short amount of time, and something similar is happening here. The RYANNO market just bounced from 59 to 75 and back literally just a minute ago and — let me refresh — now it's at 46 cents? Ample opportunities there as long as you can get the timing right. EDIT: I'd buy NO shares if the price is lower than 50, myself. Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 20:39 on Oct 21, 2015 |
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Oct 21, 2015 20:32
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disjoe posted:I disagree on Bernie being a bad investment. A lot of people on Predictit want Bernie to succeed so badly that the price will increase at the slightest news of Bernie having a chance. You just have to be ready to take advantage of that increase as soon as possible and not stay in too long. Agreed there seems to be a lot of irrationality in the markets for candidates with young demos (i.e. web-savvy). The only reason this can last is b/c of the tiny limits on sizes of investments, so you don't have any big institutions/arb funds putting in bets to take advantage of them. I'm a newcomer to predictit, but it seems really attractive if you're willing to put in the work for such tiny investment sizes. Can anyone help me understand linking a bit more? Why do people continue to insist that YES share prices will fall upon implementation? I completely understand why YES's would fall after the announcement, but I don't understand why people think it hasn't already been priced in? I.e., why didn't YES prices fall immediately upon that email going out? Not like there's some mystery about the fact that all markets will end up closer to $1 aggregate. What specific day did the announcement happen? Doesn't seem to be available on the predictit linked pricing overview page. I'm going to go grab historical prices with the predictit API and see if I can make some money off of this
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Oct 21, 2015 20:40
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In case anyone hasn't heard, a total of 9 Freedom Caucus members are officially in opposition to the Ryan Speakership. They need 8 to block. Still possible one side or the other will cave, but... EDIT: Oh god yes I'm buying shares at 48 cents and selling them off at 59 cents simultaneous 
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Oct 21, 2015 20:56
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Yes prices fell slightly immediately after the announce as the coked-out day traders panicked but they recovered almost instantly. The reason the market hasn't forced itself to rationalize since is the same reason it was irrational beforehand: most people in that market are betting in the affirmative rather than mass-negative because the former is way less expensive and more thrilling. Also because the market caps make it impossible for a single wall st. trader from coming in and vacuuming the whole market with pocket change. Once the linking goes into effect playing the No side is going to get dramatically cheaper and therefore make it a more attractive option to more traders.
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Oct 21, 2015 20:57
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Just got off a plane - turn my phone off airplane mode and a news alert pops up: "JOE SAYS NO!!!" HAAAAHAHAHA I JUST DOUBLED MY MONEY HAAAAAAAAA
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Oct 21, 2015 21:47
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God dammit I wish I bought more Ryan NOs. hopefully it drops below 50 in the next day
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Oct 21, 2015 22:05
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Ryan Speaker is a wild ride if anyone wants on. I started buying Ryan NOs at .50 and now I'm buying them at .40.
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Oct 22, 2015 00:44
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Aliquid posted:Ryan Speaker is a wild ride if anyone wants on. I started buying Ryan NOs at .50 and now I'm buying them at .40. It really is just as fun as the Biden market, although it's riskier than the Biden market in my book so I'm investing a lot less. The market comments are also full of people utterly convinced the Freedom Caucus will suddenly cave any second now.  EDIT: When I started writing this post, it was at .40. Now at .20. 
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Oct 22, 2015 00:54
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gently caress gently caress gently caress SEVER edit after almost tripling my money today, i just lost 25% 
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Oct 22, 2015 00:56
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Ryan no has tanked
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Oct 22, 2015 00:57
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Rebounding already as people realize the FC didn't get the 80% needed for an endorsement, though.
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Oct 22, 2015 00:59
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I don't know, the reports are saying he got a "super majority" of the freedom caucus but not 80% so that's not enough? Back in the 40s already
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Oct 22, 2015 00:59
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Robert Costa reported HFC voted for him with 80% of their caucus, then two thirds, then "a majority". I sold at .20 and now I can sell at .25 but I'm glad I got out when I did. That iron got hot.
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Oct 22, 2015 01:00
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Aliquid posted:Robert Costa reported HFC voted for him with 80% of their caucus, then two thirds, then "a majority". I sold at .20 and now I can sell at .25 but I'm glad I got out when I did. That iron got hot. quote:Robert Costa @costareports 1m1 minute ago He's going to get it.
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Oct 22, 2015 01:12
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I don't have that much in the market so I'm going to hold on while Ryan figures out if he's going to move forward or not.
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Oct 22, 2015 01:13
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Yeah I sold off my shares, the tortillas failed me 
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Oct 22, 2015 01:14
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evilweasel posted:He's going to get it. Ugh, gently caress it, you're right. Out of the market at .30.
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Oct 22, 2015 01:19
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lost $100 of my biden winnings because of the tortilla coast. of course the first time they compromise on something it's when i'm betting on them... ugh
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Oct 22, 2015 01:30
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Abel Wingnut posted:lost $100 of my biden winnings because of the tortilla coast. of course the first time they compromise on something it's when i'm betting on them...   Didn't lose as much as that, but definitely could have if I didn't have the goon alarm. Sorry to anyone who decided to follow me down the rabbit hole. And yeah, the FC decides now is the time to compromise on this? They're clearly more united around surprise disruptions than they are holding steadfast. God I hate the House.
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Oct 22, 2015 01:40
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gently caress the house, it is literally poo poo.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:06
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I was going to ask why everyone felt so certain on the Ryan No. In other news, a unique subculture has emerged in the remnants of the Biden Run market: Scenario 1: Joe Biden is secretly the real world equivalent of Frank Underwood. He had his team reach out to fundraisers and potential employees so that he can continue that when he actually does run. He will slip incriminating information to the Benghazi committee and watch Hillary's campaign sink. Once Hillary's campaign has fully collapsed, Joe Biden will announce that he is running "for the good of the country." Scenario 2: Through her own lack of ethics, Hillary Clinton is unraveled during the Benghazi Committee. Not only is she proven to have engaged in selfish deals with foreign countries using her Foundation as a slush fund, but she has an angry meltdown in front of the committee. Out of necessity for the party, Joe Biden enters the race. Scenario 3: It is leaked that Barack Obama wants Joe Biden to run against Hillary. President Obama admits this, and admits that he has serious concerns about Hillary Clinton. Out of what Biden calls a "tremendous respect for the wisdom and legacy of the President I have served," Joe Biden enters the race.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:11
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Vox Nihili posted:I was going to ask why everyone felt so certain on the Ryan No. I'm still confused because the tortillas have no reason to want to compromise. The right wing media was already firmly behind them. Freep is not going to be happy tonight.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:14
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It sucks that my previous shares are worth so much less, but I will take 15% odds on Ryan NO. There's still plenty of time for fuckery IMO
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Oct 22, 2015 02:15
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District Selectman posted:It sucks that my previous shares are worth so much less, but I will take 15% odds on Ryan NO. There's still plenty of time for fuckery IMO Tried to snag some yes shares but it's already in the 90's, doesn't feel worth the risk posed by further nonsense.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:20
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I had a decent rebound after dumping, was able to pick up a bunch of Ryan YES at .75 and Webster NO at .89.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:27
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District Selectman posted:It sucks that my previous shares are worth so much less, but I will take 15% odds on Ryan NO. There's still plenty of time for fuckery IMO  It might be worth a gamble in the 10 cent range.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:36
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How long do you think until Chafee drops out? At this point his campaign can't be very expensive as it consists of him just going on the news and getting absolutely murdered in the interview followed by traveling to the debate where he gets absolutely murdered. I imagine O'Malley has too much pride and ambition to allow his campaign to end before Chafee's.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:43
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It's easy to be certain if you operate on the thesis that the FC will never compromise and act together, which, prior to now, was their strict MO and the basis of their power. As soon as that goes, though, and it's revealed a sufficient number actually just prefer another punching bag, it comes down to Ryan, and whether or not he'll be able to resist power. .90 is much more appropriate for those circumstances.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:44
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Honestly Chafee might just stay in it til Super Tuesday or at least the third debate. He'll probably be able to meet the next debate's 1% threshold or whatever in the polls, purely by virtue of Biden finally saying "no, you morons" and Webb leaving.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:47
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So I put in an order to sell my 1300 BIDENRUN NO shares for 98c, but the price has already dropped below that. Will it come back up, or should I just eat the $26 and sell for 96? I don't want to wait 2 months for them to resolve.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:52
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I still don't think there is a 90 percent chance Ryan gets it. He still doesn't want to be Speaker and it is highly unlikely, despite the FC's `endorsement' that they'll agree to the rule changes he wants, imo.
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Oct 22, 2015 02:55
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Paper With Lines posted:I still don't think there is a 90 percent chance Ryan gets it. He still doesn't want to be Speaker and it is highly unlikely, despite the FC's `endorsement' that they'll agree to the rule changes he wants, imo. He'd better not, I bought 500 shares for NO today before the crash. e: literally me, irl, right now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMA3EKjbEwo Wanamingo has issued a correction as of 03:09 on Oct 22, 2015 |
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Oct 22, 2015 02:59
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Ryan seems to have not rejected the compromise/endorsement with a fig leaf.  EDIT: Obviously still possible something goes wrong during the actual vote or he never actually wanted the Speakership and this is all backroom chess. Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 03:18 on Oct 22, 2015 |
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Oct 22, 2015 03:15
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Well I sure hope for tea party shenanigans because I've got 1500 shares now 😉
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Oct 22, 2015 03:18
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| # ? May 14, 2024 12:21 |
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Just put in a buy order for 200 Yes on Ryan shares @ 85c on the latest news. Best of luck, goons.
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Oct 22, 2015 03:24
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