|
just took an interesting screencap, i wonder if this'll hold. jeb!'s spread is higher than trump's right now, so we'll see
|
#
?
Oct 25, 2015 20:47
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 15, 2024 07:05 |
|
|
Betting on Jeb! Bush's failure is the most satisfying bet I've ever made. All kinds of Jeb NO's spread around. Plus, I made my first YES bet, for Jeb to drop out first, just because I wanted to specifically bet against Jeb. It's probably a poor bet at around 23, but I only bought 100, and Jesus will smile upon me for betting against Jeb.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 00:36
|
|
|
I actually sold off all my non debate Jeb! failure bets. They're going to go down decently when he doesn't announce that he's throwing in the towel because Trump is just a big meanie tomorrow. Jeb!'s in this until at least New Hampshire even if he doesn't get another dime in donations. Which he will be since the entire Bush clan has now been activated. Now witness the terrifying sight of Jeb! just loving that all up because Trump just won't stop giving him swirlies and Jeb! has no idea how to stop the golden man.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 01:23
|
|
|
EngineerSean posted:edit: Cruz YES seems vastly overpriced though, I'm going to buy some Cruz NO right now. I like Cruz as a temporary buy. He'll get the scraps from Trump vs Carson, plus he presents well in debates
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 01:35
|
|
|
MisterJed posted:I like Cruz as a temporary buy. He'll get the scraps from Trump vs Carson, plus he presents well in debates Cruz actually has one of the better chances of winning the nomination now. I'd say it's Rubio, Jeb! should he find a way to pull out of this tail spin, Cruz, Romney, then Trump. With the rest of the bozos having insignificant chances unworthy of factoring in. Cruz doesn't just get the scraps from Trump and Carson burn outs, he gets most of it. He's not antagonistic to other candidate's supporters, thought the actual candidates Jeb! and Graham despise him, and controls a strong enough polling percentage to make him attractive to most people looking for a new candidate.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 01:45
|
|
|
MisterJed posted:I like Cruz as a temporary buy. He'll get the scraps from Trump vs Carson, plus he presents well in debates He also is one of the few 'serious' candidates left who hasn't gone through the rise/spotlight/fall cycle that so many others have. It may be his turn once Carson burns out.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 02:13
|
|
|
The Louisiana Gubernatorial market is giving near-even odds for both parties, so I bought a bunch of DEM NO for $0.54 each. I realize that Vitter, the Republican candidate, has a ton of baggage, but it's still an off-year election in an R+12 state.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 04:21
|
|
|
I still think the Democrats are a great buy for the KY gov race.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 04:22
|
|
|
I've said this a bunch and I'll say it again: if you believe linked contracts are coming to existing markets you should hold off on buying Yes on anyone. However this also means that No shares are undervalued so instead of buying yes on trump buy no on all his competitors. Once the contracts are linked sell your No shares which should receive a boost and put your money back into the now-cheaper yes shares. This all depends on them actually linking the drat things, though.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 04:33
|
|
|
Debt limit raised by Nov 3rd YES shares are like 70 cents right now. That seems really undervalued.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 04:54
|
|
|
I don't know why they can't just leave the markets that are already out untouched, say oops, apologize to the academics who are supposed to be collecting data on all this, and going forward start linking the new markets. I tend to buy a lot more NO than YES, so if anything I would be helped by it, but it ends up being this elephant in the room that holds a lot of activity back. They should put out a new market so we can bet on when they will start linking markets nachos posted:Debt limit raised by Nov 3rd YES shares are like 70 cents right now. That seems really undervalued. Maybe, but I am still holding onto some NO. I see it trading higher and if they don't raise it until November 4 or 5th, I doubt it will be the apocalypse and it will still resolve as NO. Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 05:02 on Oct 26, 2015 |
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 04:56
|
|
|
nachos posted:Debt limit raised by Nov 3rd YES shares are like 70 cents right now. That seems really undervalued. Psh, in the apocalyptic hellscape of the Post-Default world my extra $2,833.33 is going to go per-itty far, buddy.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 04:57
|
|
|
They just locked the Louisiana Governor market, but the runoff isn't until November 21. Really weird, it seems everyone will be forced to just hold their positions until they resolve next month. Not sure why PredictIt would do that.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 06:56
|
|
|
Corrupt Politician posted:They just locked the Louisiana Governor market, but the runoff isn't until November 21. Really weird, it seems everyone will be forced to just hold their positions until they resolve next month. Not sure why PredictIt would do that. Yeah I was wondering about this. I had some buy orders because 50/50 R/D is SUPER wrong, because a republican is of course going to win a weird off year Governors race in Louisiana of all places. Did people at Predictit not understand how that weirdo state's elections work? They also didn't "close" the market, because my buy orders are still good, but it just looks like trading is frozen, possibly because they made the rules wrong?
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 10:21
|
|
|
Stereotype posted:Yeah I was wondering about this. I had some buy orders because 50/50 R/D is SUPER wrong, because a republican is of course going to win a weird off year Governors race in Louisiana of all places. Did people at Predictit not understand how that weirdo state's elections work? I made some good returns getting in on LA GOV D YES at like 20 cents, because I figured people would be stupid about Vitter being in the lead, and I was definitely vindicated.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 13:06
|
|
|
Just snagged 500 Biden Run Yes for 3 cents. Feel the Joementum people!
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 13:28
|
|
|
Zeta Taskforce posted:I don't know why they can't just leave the markets that are already out untouched, say oops, apologize to the academics who are supposed to be collecting data on all this, and going forward start linking the new markets. My hunch is that the most "interesting" markets for academics are the long presidential race ones, which are all linked. Keeping those as non-linked while making new markets linked wouldn't help the academic nature of the most relevant markets, so they're trying to implement a solution to those markets without jacking everything up. I'm not saying that's the right or wrong way to go about it, but that's my thought on why they don't just have linking on new markets going forward.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 15:15
|
|
|
User Error posted:Just snagged 500 Biden Run Yes for 3 cents. Feel the Joementum people! Uhhh
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 15:43
|
|
|
User Error posted:Just snagged 500 Biden Run Yes for 3 cents. Feel the Joementum people! Nice move. Have you considered penny stocks? I have a few bargains that you wouldn't believe...
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 15:59
|
|
|
Hey it was an easy 10$. Gotta do something to scratch that itch while I wait for the rest of my portfolio to do something.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 17:01
|
|
|
User Error posted:Hey it was an easy 10$. Gotta do something to scratch that itch while I wait for the rest of my portfolio to do something. $15, you mean?  I'm also feeling the itch, but I'm resisting so far, in part because I'm pretty sure this kind of compulsive behavior is how gambling addiction starts.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 17:11
|
|
|
Yep, after the Biden/Ryan day last week, I put everything into medium-term investments so I don't go too nuts.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 17:17
|
|
|
Combed Thunderclap posted:$15, you mean? Bought for 15, selling for 25. I hope. Some dick is trying to sell a bunch at 5 in front of me. I'll unload them for 4 if they don't move in a few hours.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 17:26
|
|
|
User Error posted:Bought for 15, selling for 25. I hope. Some dick is trying to sell a bunch at 5 in front of me. I'll unload them for 4 if they don't move in a few hours. Ooo, that is nice. My pet peeve is when people blatantly manipulate the price with a bunch of single shares at a price.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 17:45
|
|
|
Jim Webb third party run: Yay or Nay?
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:04
|
|
|
My guy says no but I don't know enough about the man and his history to put money on it.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:09
|
|
|
Major run on debt ceiling -- up to 90% yes no. This might be why: http://thehill.com/policy/finance/258091-white-house-gop-near-two-year-budget-deal I got in at 88 cents. Seems like a great short-term bet to me. railroad terror has issued a correction as of 18:16 on Oct 26, 2015 |
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:13
|
|
|
User Error posted:My guy says no but I don't know enough about the man and his history to put money on it. Same thoughts here. railroad terror posted:Major run on debt ceiling -- up to 90% yes no. Major budget deal to allegedly to be announced tonight. I got in at 70 this morning, will buy up more in a bit once things cool down again.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:16
|
|
|
About 20% of my portfolio was put into Debt Limit YES after Biden Day, I'm at .72. I was waiting for this.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:25
|
|
|
Tempting to sell at .93 or so. Don't underestimate the penchant of some Tortilla Coast Raiders for loving things up.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:30
|
|
|
Someone wants Cruz YES at .18 for some reason. I'm heavy in Cruz NO at .83 and .82 sounds juicy too.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:33
|
|
|
I knew I'd regret not loading up all my Biden winnings on those 70 cent debt limit yes shares yesterday
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:34
|
|
|
railroad terror posted:Major run on debt ceiling -- up to 90% yes no. I just switched sides. I only had 50 shares at about 25, so I lost about $7.50 on it. But honestly, this is good news and its nice to see sanity break out once in awhile
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:44
|
|
|
My reasoning is that Our Capitalist Gods will never let a default happen, ever.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:46
|
|
|
Zeta Taskforce posted:I just switched sides. I only had 50 shares at about 25, so I lost about $7.50 on it. But honestly, this is good news and its nice to see sanity break out once in awhile Nice! Also in the interest of reporting defeats as well as victories, I lost a couple bucks getting rid of those BushYes shares I bought yesterday. Always check the 24-hour chart to see if shares are at their lowest equilibrium point or not.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:52
|
|
|
It was highly speculative while I wait for my big bets on Newt not being speaker and Jeb! missing his poll number to pay out. I know I'm talking into the wind, but what they should do with the linking the long term markets like president is announce that as of a certain date, like 30 days from now, they are going to close the market, pay everyone out, not take their cut should someone be up, and then relaunch it fresh.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 18:58
|
|
|
Zeta Taskforce posted:It was highly speculative while I wait for my big bets on Newt not being speaker and Jeb! missing his poll number to pay out. This is probably the best option.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 19:00
|
|
|
railroad terror posted:Major run on debt ceiling -- up to 90% yes no. Really annoyed that the couldn't wait a couple more hours to let people know about it. My buy order at 68 was just starting to get filled when that hit. Should have just bit the bullet and bought more at 70.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 19:12
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Really annoyed that the couldn't wait a couple more hours to let people know about it. My buy order at 68 was just starting to get filled when that hit. Should have just bit the bullet and bought more at 70. Bought 50 Yes shares. C'mon baby, daddy needs to make another 7 bucks or so. In fact, I'm only looking at a bit over $100 total profit on all of my post-Biden bets; hopefully these "safe havens" don't come around to bite me.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 19:22
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 15, 2024 07:05 |
|
|
Ha I bought into that market 82 cents when it first came out. People in this thread always get the bigger profit margins, I swear.
|
|
#
?
Oct 26, 2015 19:28
|
|
