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More details on the SSDI and Medicare changes:quote:Also included in the package: Language reauthorizing the Export-Import Bank and a deal to avert cuts to the Social Security Disability Fund – slated to be depleted in late 2016 – by transferring money from the program’s retirement account. Re-authorizing Ex-Im as part of the deal means that the Tortilla Coasters will adamantly oppose it (not that there was any danger of them supporting a debt ceiling hike to begin with), so this isn't something Boehner can squeak by the Democrats in the House. Pelosi will need to deliver votes on this, which means the deal can't be too sour for Democrats to swallow.
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Oct 26, 2015 19:50
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Joementum posted:More details on the SSDI and Medicare changes: I can't remember the last time that Pelosi was unable to deliver on a deal.
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Oct 26, 2015 19:52
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Zeroisanumber posted:I can't remember the last time that Pelosi was unable to deliver on a deal. She's been in the discussions as well so she'd have been able to say NOPE well before this gets agreed to and announced publicly if it was toxic for her conference.
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Oct 26, 2015 19:53
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Zeroisanumber posted:I can't remember the last time that Pelosi was unable to deliver on a deal. Obamacare was maybe her biggest challenge with Stupak and his anti-abortion crew.
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Oct 26, 2015 19:56
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The Medicare change is coming from Pelosi.quote:A cap on premium hikes for Medicare Part B beneficiaries — sought by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) but initially rejected by the White House — would also be included. Medicare Part B covers doctors’ services, outpatient hospital services, and some home health care. The deal under discussion is also expected to address Social Security disability insurance, according to multiple sources.
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Oct 26, 2015 19:58
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Boon posted:Oh. So at the end of her first term she'd be about the same age as when McCain expected to begin his first term. Republicans have to be really delicate about bashing Hillary for her age, not only because so much of their base is old retirees who loudly object to any implication that they are affected by their age, but also because Hillary is still younger than Reagan was when he ran for president. That being said, if she's elected she'll be the third oldest presidential elect, after Reagan and Harrison. Kaal fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 19:59
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It's official. Trump is in trouble in Iowa. A second poll out today puts Carson ahead of Trump by 14 points, with 32% of caucus goers favoring the famed neurosurgeon.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:02
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Clinton will probably clean either candidates clock but I'm still not sure which of those two GOP candidates are less bad.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:03
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Carson is going to look really foolish if he has to drop out because he is polling too well and just planned to run in order to get his book sales.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:04
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In trouble in schmouble, those Iowa hicks aren't gonna make Ben Carson the nominee any more than they did Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:04
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I am going to be very interested in the popular vote disparities come 2016 if Trump or Carson becomes the GOP nominee.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:06
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Kaal posted:Republicans have to be really delicate about bashing Hillary for her age, not only because so much of their base is old retirees who loudly object to any implication that they are affected by their age, but also because Hillary is still younger than Reagan was when he ran for president. That being said, if she's elected she'll be the third oldest presidential elect, after Reagan and Harrison. Trump is 69 and Carson is 64. So ummm kettles and pots and such.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:06
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Fojar38 posted:Clinton will probably clean either candidates clock but I'm still not sure which of those two GOP candidates are less bad. Carson won't be in the general, he has no organization other than fundraising. Literally, all of the money that he makes for his campaign he plows back into fundraising. Trump at least has something like a half-hearted attempt at an election organization. Hillary would devour either of them in the general.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:06
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ComradeCosmobot posted:It's official. Trump is in trouble in Iowa. A second poll out today puts Carson ahead of Trump by 14 points, with 32% of caucus goers favoring the famed neurosurgeon. Isn't Trump demolishing the field in NH and SC though? Can't he lose Iowa and still come out ahead because of those?
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Oct 26, 2015 20:07
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Joementum posted:Greg Sargent also has a source confirming the Medicare Part B change, which isn't really "cuts" as described in the NYT. Oh gently caress. My current job just got even more shittier. Expected premium increase is believed to be up to 52% of the current premium of $104.90 per month. Oh, goddamnit Pelosi. I'm guessing she's already planning this to be her last term in office, isn't she? Wait, are they trying to cap the premium increase? I'm confused.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:09
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RevKrule posted:Isn't Trump demolishing the field in NH and SC though? Can't he lose Iowa and still come out ahead because of those? Yes. Iowa is not typically that determinative of who the winner will be - instead, losing Iowa badly clears out some of the no-hopers.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:09
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DemeaninDemon posted:Trump is 69 and Carson is 64. So ummm kettles and pots and such. We're also in an era where graying presidential candidates is increasingly the norm, and visible appearance and vitality counts for a lot. Trump is only a year older than Hillary, but he looks aged standing next to her, even with all his spray tan and ridiculous overly dyed and teased hair. It's really funny how Trump was bashing Bush for being slow and old, when Trump is almost seven years older and has seven grandchildren. Bernie Sanders is 74, and he comes across as a firebrand on stage. That being said, you only have to look at how Obama aged 15 years in the last 7 to see how much the job demands of you. Age matters, and it goes without saying that Reagan started going senile in his first term. Kaal fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 20:10
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Iowa Republicans are generally going to be more of the religious type, and that is probably the one part of the Republican Party that Trump can't play to.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:10
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Kaal posted:We're also in an era where graying presidential candidates is increasingly the norm, and visible appearance and vitality counts for a lot. Trump is only a year older than Hillary, but he looks aged standing next to her, even with all his spray tan and ridiculous overly dyed and teased hair. It's really funny how Trump was bashing Bush for being slow and old, when he's almost seven years younger. Bernie Sanders is 74, and he comes across as a firebrand on stage. That being said, you only have to look at how Obama aged 15 years in the last 7 to see how much the job demands of you. And it goes without saying that Reagan started going senile in his first term. Rubio's 44 so he's really the only real candidate left who can play the "go home grandpa/ma" card.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:15
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RevKrule posted:Isn't Trump demolishing the field in NH and SC though? Can't he lose Iowa and still come out ahead because of those? Iowa is a shitstain on democracy and about as good at deciding stuff as it is at growing things other than corn. *Throws down mic, gestures to crowd at Cedar Falls' UNIDome before delivering flying elbow drop to Ethanol Ernie* pathetic little tramp fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 20:16
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RevKrule posted:Isn't Trump demolishing the field in NH and SC though? Can't he lose Iowa and still come out ahead because of those? As evilweasel said, it's not really all about Iowa; in 2012 the winner was Santorum.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:16
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RevKrule posted:Isn't Trump demolishing the field in NH and SC though? Can't he lose Iowa and still come out ahead because of those? The worries for Trump are that losing NH could disrupt his valuable image as a strong winner alpha male guy, and that the Iowa winner could have all of the anyone-but-Trump support flow to him. Rappaport posted:As evilweasel said, it's not really all about Iowa; in 2012 the winner was Santorum. It was actually viewed as a tie/narrow Romney victory for a time before the results were recounted, though. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 20:17
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DemeaninDemon posted:Rubio's 44 so he's really the only real candidate left who can play the "go home grandpa/ma" card. Didn't work for Ryan against Biden though.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:18
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ComradeCosmobot posted:In Black Lives Matter news:  Not exactly sure what purpose having an entire 2+ hour debate on it would serve. The questions should be asked in debates about domestic policy, definitely, but what the hell would they do with 2 straight hours?
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Oct 26, 2015 20:24
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Gravel Gravy posted:Didn't work for Ryan against Biden though. It's just a really tricky card to play, because you have to whistle-blow it or else the AARP set will cry foul and let loose the walkers of war. Democrats have the same issue, though to a lesser extent. On the flip side, it's definitely a real issue, particularly for the folks who are pushing 70. I mean Bernie Sanders would be 83 at the end of a hypothetical second term. Alter Ego posted:
Well presumably half that time would be spent with them standing there awkwardly while a succession of young rebels mount the stage and seize the mics. Kaal fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 20:24
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Gravel Gravy posted:Didn't work for Ryan against Biden though. Yeah he can play it all he wants but it likely won't work at all.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:29
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Alter Ego posted:
My understanding is that they not only want to get the candidates on record about racial profiling, but also things like welfare, mandatory minimum sentencing, and pretty much every racially-associated political topic.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:34
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Three Olives posted:Serious question, the right loves talking about trickle down and tax cuts paying for themselves but wouldn't increased government spending inherently raise tax revenues and grow the economy? e.g. spending yourself out of a recession? I generally agree but in some cases they basically do, in fact one of those cases was mentioned in the post right before yours (the f-35).
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Oct 26, 2015 20:36
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Rappaport posted:As evilweasel said, it's not really all about Iowa; in 2012 the winner was Santorum. And in 2008 the winner was Huckabee. McCain tied for third with Fred Thompson.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:37
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MaxxBot posted:I generally agree but in some cases they basically do, in fact one of those cases was mentioned in the post right before yours (the f-35). The F-35 spending is spent in the United States and while it may be the equivalent of digging ditches and filling them in, ditch-digging stimulates the economy.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:38
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Fojar38 posted:Clinton will probably clean either candidates clock but I'm still not sure which of those two GOP candidates are less bad.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:38
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ComradeCosmobot posted:My understanding is that they not only want to get the candidates on record about racial profiling, but also things like welfare, mandatory minimum sentencing, and pretty much every racially-associated political topic. Aren't they pretty much already on the record on all of those? Does it not count because it wasn't on a dumbed down formulaic TV debate?
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Oct 26, 2015 20:39
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Popular Thug Drink posted:e: my state passed a law called "Brad's Law" because some rich dude's son smoked way too much synthetic weed in a hot tub, passed out, and drowned. we really should teach basic drug safety in schools, right after we talk about condoms. don't mix drugs, don't trip alone, remember what you took, do your research and check your doses first, and don't ever dose in a dangerous location such as a body of water You have a point but the death probably could have been prevented by legalizing weed and not having kids smoke who knows what from China because the gas station sells it. SedanChair posted:Maureen Dowd used to date Aaron Sorkin, there's a series of conversations I'm sure were enlightening to everybody 
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Oct 26, 2015 20:41
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ComradeCosmobot posted:My understanding is that they not only want to get the candidates on record about racial profiling, but also things like welfare, mandatory minimum sentencing, and pretty much every racially-associated political topic. That would be a hell of a thing to watch, I hope BLM get their way on it.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:47
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ComradeCosmobot posted:My understanding is that they not only want to get the candidates on record about racial profiling, but also things like welfare, mandatory minimum sentencing, and pretty much every racially-associated political topic. Oh. I actually like that idea if they tie it into domestic agenda questions. Of course, if any Democratic debate has the potential to turn into a shitshow, it'd be that one.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:49
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The House GOP is having a big conference tonight at 6pm to discuss the budget deal. Should be a fun night for Boehner and will be very interesting to hear if Ryan has anything to say.  Also, it appears that much of the offset for the defense spending increase will come from the Overseas Contingency Operations fund, which was not Senate Republicans' favorite part of the last Ryan budget deal.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:50
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Boehner's risking being in the same room with the Tortilla Coast wackos? Does he WANT to wind up dead in a gutter somewhere?
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Oct 26, 2015 20:52
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Joementum posted:The House GOP is having a big conference tonight at 6pm to discuss the budget deal. Should be a fun night for Boehner and will be very interesting to hear if Ryan has anything to say. It'll pass the Senate for sure, but there's a chance that Boehner's conference will be too frightened to scrape up even the few votes necessary to get it through.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:57
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Joementum posted:Also, it appears that much of the offset for the defense spending increase will come from the Overseas Contingency Operations fund, ... e: to clarify, Obama said he didn't like the last appropriation partly because so much was put in the Overseas fund, and he wanted that in the budget. Is that what happened?
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Oct 26, 2015 20:58
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