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It's still a loving bargain at 88 cents. Like seriously, what the hell are you going to do with NO money in a post default world.
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Oct 26, 2015 19:30
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pathetic little tramp posted:Ha I bought into that market 82 cents when it first came out. People in this thread always get the bigger profit margins, I swear. People brag about the ones they hit right. But long term it's not about maximizing every cent out of every trade. Just be right more than you're wrong and more than anything avoid the huge devastating losses that leave you in a deep hole. They say you will starve on Wall Street if you eat like a bird and poo poo like an elephant.
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Oct 26, 2015 19:44
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Vox Nihili posted:Jim Webb third party run: Yay or Nay? Third party runs seem to generally be reserved for eccentric loudmouths who have enough pre-existing popularity to fund a campaign. Webb doesn't seem like that type to me. I don't feel strongly enough to put money on it though. Aliquid posted:My reasoning is that Our Capitalist Gods will never let a default happen, ever. My thoughts exactly. A deliberate default is getting into assassination territory. Lots of people with lots of money would be extremely pissed. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 20:38 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 20:33
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Vox Nihili posted:Jim Webb third party run: Yay or Nay? Necc0 posted:Third party runs seem to generally be reserved for eccentric loudmouths who have enough pre-existing popularity to fund a campaign. Webb doesn't seem like that type to me. I don't feel strongly enough to put money on it though. I bought 400 NO shares (only meant to buy ~200, accidentally doubled). My reasoning is mostly: he doesn't have a huge base, it's super super hard and futile to run without a party, and I've never heard of someone losing the nomination of their party and then running independent. Actually, I'm curious: when was the last time someone's done that? platzapS has issued a correction as of 20:40 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 20:38
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John B. Anderson? Kind of. Not really.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:40
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I initially bought Webb "YES" shares and then cut my losses because of the reasoning everyone's already given. Webb doesn't seem like the type to run a vanity campaign if the funding's not there, though I guess you could call his previous run for the Dem nomination exactly that. He's making lots of noise and going on talk radio right now but it hasn't really amounted to anything in terms of fundraising or staffing up.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:44
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Picked up a small amount of Webb No at 66c, hoping to ride the Goon Consensus.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:54
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When would that close? I mean, he can decide to run again at any point right? Are we looking at Dec. 31 2015?
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Oct 26, 2015 20:59
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railroad terror posted:I initially bought Webb "YES" shares and then cut my losses because of the reasoning everyone's already given. Webb doesn't seem like the type to run a vanity campaign if the funding's not there, though I guess you could call his previous run for the Dem nomination exactly that. He's making lots of noise and going on talk radio right now but it hasn't really amounted to anything in terms of fundraising or staffing up. His run at the Democratic nomination was based on the foolish idea that there's a hidden groundswell of conservative Democrats waiting to be engaged. They were slaughtered by the Tea Party and the world is better for it. There is no longer a place in the Democratic or Republican parties for a Jim Webb and he would have been better off staying in the Senate, except he hated every minute of that. No idea why he thought he'd want to be President.
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Oct 26, 2015 21:54
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Necc0 posted:I've said this a bunch and I'll say it again: if you believe linked contracts are coming to existing markets you should hold off on buying Yes on anyone. However this also means that No shares are undervalued so instead of buying yes on trump buy no on all his competitors. Meh. They don't even have a date listed for their next trial of linked polling markets, after the last one crashed and burned within hours. I would be surprised if they start linking any existing markets before 2016. Tomato Burger posted:My hunch is that the most "interesting" markets for academics are the long presidential race ones, which are all linked. Keeping those as non-linked while making new markets linked wouldn't help the academic nature of the most relevant markets, so they're trying to implement a solution to those markets without jacking everything up. Uh, no, there is not a single linked market on the site today.
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Oct 26, 2015 22:15
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Vox Nihili posted:Picked up a small amount of Webb No at 66c, hoping to ride the Goon Consensus. pathetic little tramp posted:When would that close? I mean, he can decide to run again at any point right? Are we looking at Dec. 31 2015? Read the rules! It says that he would have to amend his candidacy or file new papers as an independent, as opposed to his current status as a Democrat (which he has since announced he will not be pursuing). The logic behind him not bothering an independent bid is kind of the same as Biden not running - there's no real point, no basis of support, and he'll just quit that before long too. It's really whether you think he'll bother with a vanity run, or if he was just saving face during his announcement dropping from the Dem primary. EDIT: I have shares in Webb not running as an independent, but not going all in like for Biden.
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Oct 26, 2015 22:16
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JosefStalinator posted:Read the rules! It says that he would have to amend his candidacy or file new papers as an independent, as opposed to his current status as a Democrat (which he has since announced he will not be pursuing). Yeah I know that would close the market if he announced he was running again, a la Perot; but I'm talking when does it close if he doesn't do anything? I didn't see an end date for that in the rules.
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Oct 26, 2015 23:08
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah I know that would close the market if he announced he was running again, a la Perot; but I'm talking when does it close if he doesn't do anything? I didn't see an end date for that in the rules. It says "this year" so I assume by Dec 31.
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Oct 26, 2015 23:13
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platzapS posted:It says "this year" so I assume by Dec 31. The 'Data' tab shows an end date of 12/31/15, so I think you're right.
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Oct 26, 2015 23:44
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Ohhhhhh it's in the table on the main tab, got it.
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Oct 26, 2015 23:52
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drat, i cashed out last thursday and received my check today. i was not expecting it for at least two weeks or so.
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Oct 27, 2015 00:05
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Out of curiosity, where do they send their checks from?
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Oct 27, 2015 00:07
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205 pennsylvania avenue, se washington, dc 20003
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Oct 27, 2015 00:24
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I'm really hating the gain/loss entry now. It's not only inaccurate as all gently caress, but it gives you absolutely no actual information if you have money on more than one market. I much preferred the total number that made it so you didn't have to do simple arithmetic when looking at your available money and your invested amount. I mean, lovely metric that it is aside, at least move it to the bottom of each market beside where it tells you how much is invested in that market. That would give some half assed idea of if the market ended at this second and you had to sell all your shares at the latest prices, and of course knowing that there will always be enough listed at that price to cover what you own, what you would make. Instead I get to watch the number fluctuate every 5 seconds for no reason other than someone on some market where I have shares decided to post a new buy/sell offer. Most likely on a market with weeks left before it closes.
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Oct 27, 2015 00:33
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Yep. It's bad. Rubio and Cruz are both climbing and I hate it. i say swears online has issued a correction as of 03:32 on Oct 27, 2015 |
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Oct 27, 2015 03:30
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I'm scooping up RNOM NO's on everyone who isn't Rubio/Trump/Cruz at this point. I've got something like 40% of my bankroll tied up in that market
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Oct 27, 2015 05:51
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Now that Biden's out, wouldn't that favor the "Polling Gives Bernie At Least 25% By 10/31" market? It hasn't been a great month for Sanders, but if another poll does come out in the next few days, it seems unlikely it's going to be at 22 or below. 85 cents is a bargain IMO.
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Oct 27, 2015 14:11
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Yeah but then something goofy happens and RCP drops some polls and then mass panic happens. The only thing to do in poll markets is to buy low and hope for chaos.
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Oct 27, 2015 16:36
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The real only thing to do is not play the poll markets.
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Oct 27, 2015 16:39
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Webb independent run market is 66 cents for a no right now. Pretty cheap poo poo atm
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Oct 27, 2015 17:03
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I bought some Fiorina debate winner NO at 78 cents. Should be a quick payoff once people realize her 15 minutes are up.
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Oct 27, 2015 17:12
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User Error posted:I bought some Fiorina debate winner NO at 78 cents. Should be a quick payoff once people realize her 15 minutes are up. Probably a "good" buy, but by no means safe.
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Oct 27, 2015 17:14
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I think Carson NO is a good buy at 83 cents. He is a sleepy boring gently caress and his economic ideas are utter nonsense. This debate will be "won" by Trump/Rubio/Bush in my opinion. I'm undecided on Fiorina, I could see it going either way for her. She dipped in the polls quite a bit so her brash manner and former CEO title which might give her statements a bit more authority in an economic debate and lead to another quick bump. That said, I don't think the media really cares about her anymore.
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Oct 27, 2015 17:19
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nachos posted:I think Carson NO is a good buy at 83 cents. He is a sleepy boring gently caress and his economic ideas are utter nonsense. This debate will be "won" by Trump/Rubio/Bush in my opinion. I'm undecided on Fiorina, I could see it going either way for her. She dipped in the polls quite a bit so her brash manner and former CEO title which might give her statements a bit more authority in an economic debate and lead to another quick bump. That said, I don't think the media really cares about her anymore. I think your last sentence is key. She was being hyped before the debate then followed the 2012 style flavor of the week bump and burnout.
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Oct 27, 2015 17:22
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Fiorina always gets a post-debate bump though, right?
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Oct 27, 2015 17:23
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Reminder that actual debate performance is only tenuously connected to those markets.
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Oct 27, 2015 17:24
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railroad terror posted:Now that Biden's out, wouldn't that favor the "Polling Gives Bernie At Least 25% By 10/31" market? It hasn't been a great month for Sanders, but if another poll does come out in the next few days, it seems unlikely it's going to be at 22 or below. 85 cents is a bargain IMO. I cringe saying this, but Trump hitting 25% is probably a safer bet with similar payoff. It was around 92 yesterday, fell to about 87 right now because a 22% came out. But there is a 32% out there too, the polls dropping off won't make a difference and not enough time for enough polls with poor numbers to make a meaningful dent, especially with that 32%
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Oct 27, 2015 17:24
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I'm tempted as hell to place some bets on the new $10 bill just for kicks - my biden NO and my debt limit ceiling YES's paid off so I have some fun money. What do you guys think? https://www.predictit.org/Market/1473/Which-woman-will-be-selected-for-the-new-%2410-bill-by-year-end-2015
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Oct 27, 2015 17:24
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Vox Nihili posted:Reminder that actual debate performance is only tenuously connected to those markets. By actual debate performance are you including the media spin afterwards?
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Oct 27, 2015 17:27
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nachos posted:By actual debate performance are you including the media spin afterwards? The whole thing, yeah. When and how they choose to drop and add polls, as well as any events that happen before and after the debate, feed in just as much as the whole debate spectacle itself. For example, Trump could kill the debate and still "lose" because he's presently in a downward trajectory but with some old, big numbers hanging on the board.
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Oct 27, 2015 17:43
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Jim Webb last night (?)
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Oct 27, 2015 17:48
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platzapS posted:Jim Webb last night Not much liquidity/shallow market. Looks like someone made a few big No buys while most people were sleeping.
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Oct 27, 2015 17:52
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Anorexic Sea Turtle posted:Webb independent run market is 66 cents for a no right now. Pretty cheap poo poo atm Thanks for the heads up. Just threw $20 on no
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Oct 27, 2015 17:53
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platzapS posted:Jim Webb last night Lol everyone got smart then stupid in the blink of an eye.
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Oct 27, 2015 18:39
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District Selectman posted:I'm scooping up RNOM NO's on everyone who isn't Rubio/Trump/Cruz at this point. I've got something like 40% of my bankroll tied up in that market Yeah I just did that too because I want to see what happens when they introduce contract pricing (I assume I get 90% of my money back and get to keep all my bets, and then they are also all worth more)
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Oct 27, 2015 20:12
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