Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Poil
Mar 17, 2007

More children = slower growth?

My first thought is that it's some bizarre plan to force start more demand and growth. But they have no idea what to do so they're just doing whatever?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Krispy Wafer
Jul 26, 2002

I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat

Grimey Drawer

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/china-steel-chief-says-demand-evaporating-at-unprecedented-speed


You know what they should do? Use all that steel to build stoves and farming equipment for the workers in the countryside

When they say China's steel production will contract by a fifth, like the U.S., Europe, and Japan - are they referring to a recent drop or the historical decline, described rhythmically by the piano stylings of Billy Joel?

No, they never taught us what was real,
Iron and coke,
Chromium Steel
十三五

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

Ardennes posted:

It has been in the cards for a while, but I think the recent crisis has caught them flatfooted. Also, it is going to take 18 years before that new generation comes of age, a bit too late to save Chinese growth.

Don't Chinese children start working in the mines at like 6?

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Poil posted:

More children = slower growth?

My first thought is that it's some bizarre plan to force start more demand and growth. But they have no idea what to do so they're just doing whatever?

They are freaking out about demographics. The percentage of the population at working age (and thus contributibg to GDP) is on the decline and that is about to get a hell of a lot worse soon.

It is also an issue which may cause unrest because there is little social safety net to speak of and you will have one kid supporting two parents. If that kid isn't able to make enough money to comfortablly support all three people you might end up with people asking uncomfortable questions about the ability of the CCP to properly guide the country.

Slaan
Mar 16, 2009



ASHERAH DEMANDS I FEAST, I VOTE FOR A FEAST OF FLESH
So did they just not see what the One Child Policy would do to the economy, especially for retirees, and not plan around it? Especially when the West was starting to go through the same thing when the policy was implemented, it should have been obvious.

Krispy Wafer
Jul 26, 2002

I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat

Grimey Drawer

Slaan posted:

So did they just not see what the One Child Policy would do to the economy, especially for retirees, and not plan around it? Especially when the West was starting to go through the same thing when the policy was implemented, it should have been obvious.

They didn't see what the One Child Policy would do for their lopsided male/female ratio either. I seriously doubted they looked too carefully into unintended consequences beyond, "HOLY poo poo WE HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE!"

Slaan
Mar 16, 2009



ASHERAH DEMANDS I FEAST, I VOTE FOR A FEAST OF FLESH
Probably more kick the can than not foreseeing it, I think. "I'm not going to be Premier when the demographic poo poo hits the economic fan but we are struggling to feed everyone now. So, I hope they remember to plan for this later!"

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Slaan posted:

So did they just not see what the One Child Policy would do to the economy, especially for retirees, and not plan around it? Especially when the West was starting to go through the same thing when the policy was implemented, it should have been obvious.

Oh they did, which is why it wasn't really enforced unless you were a city dweller (because they typically got more social services).

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Slaan posted:

So did they just not see what the One Child Policy would do to the economy, especially for retirees, and not plan around it? Especially when the West was starting to go through the same thing when the policy was implemented, it should have been obvious.

well, the whole demographic crisis thing wasn't on the radar back in '79 or whenever they started it, and today probably the hubris of Chinese exceptionalism is blinding the CCP to the fact the country is a flaming trainwreck

Artificer
Apr 8, 2010

You're going to try ponies and you're. Going. To. LOVE. ME!!

icantfindaname posted:

well, the whole demographic crisis thing wasn't on the radar back in '79 or whenever they started it, and today probably the hubris of Chinese exceptionalism is blinding the CCP to the fact the country is a flaming trainwreck

I think that's a little hyperbolic.

sincx
Jul 13, 2012

furiously masturbating to anime titties

Slaan posted:

Probably more kick the can than not foreseeing it, I think. "I'm not going to be Premier when the demographic poo poo hits the economic fan but we are struggling to feed everyone now. So, I hope they remember to plan for this later!"

The "in the long run, I'll be dead :shrug:" school of economic planning.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

quote:

The most egregious examples from the Chinese government’s long, sordid history of data-doctoring

http://qz.com/530096/china-data-tricks/

This is a good article to read.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
https://next.ft.com/content/7b4a6058-3b53-3f7e-8225-ddee12993589

quote:

China in "bull market" as stocks +20% from August

Chinese and Japanese stocks are rallying for a second day, but other markets are in retreat after US stocks stalled and investors prepare for Friday's US jobs report.

China's Shanghai Composite technically returned to "bull market" status as it rose more than 2 per cent on Thursday, taking its gain since a 2015 low in late August to more than 20 per cent.

The benchmark index rose 10.8 per cent in October, breaking a four-month losing streak with its best month since April. With today's solid gain and a 4.3 per cent jump on Wednesday, the index is now up 9.5 per cent this year and close to 50 per cent over 12 months.

Sentiment for Chinese equities has improved in recent weeks as incoming data suggests some stabilisation in the economy and policy-makers take a proactive stance to ensure they meet an "around 7 per cent" growth target for 2015.

Along with the recent gains comes more speculative bets: margins outstanding on the Shanghai Exchange, in which brokerages lend money to investors to play the markets, rose 1.9 per cent on Wednesday. This took the amount above $100bn for the first time since September 1.

In the euphoria earlier in the year, margins bets peaked at nearly $240bn. By that standard, it wouldn't appear that leverage is out of control again. However, compared with 24 months ago margin outstanding is up 200 per cent.

When the $100bn margin mark was first passed in December 2014, economists at Deutsche Bank were warning that failure "to contain the pace of leverage build-up in the equity market" would impose risks on the economy.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.9 per cent, thanks in part to the yen weakening against the dollar overnight.

The US dollar climbed against a basket of rivals, after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen reiterated that lifting interest rates next month is a "live possibility." The dollar index rose 0.8 per cent to 97.95, its highest since early August, before retreating 0.1 per cent in Asia trading.

Ms Yellen was generally upbeat throughout a congressional hearing, telling lawmakers the "downside risks" to the US economy from global economic and financial developments had diminished since September.

Among the more colourful moments of the hearing was when Congressman Brad Sherman urged Ms Yellen to "be good with the Almighty" and delay raising interest rates until May. "God's plan is not for things to go rise in the autumn," he told her. "As a matter of fact, that's why we call it fall. Nor is it God's plan for things to rise in the winter through the snow."

Two US reports confirmed that US economy was off to a solid start in the fourth quarter.

Private payroll processor ADP showed 182,000 jobs were created last month, bolstering expectations for a solid non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index rose to 59.1 in October from 56.9, leaving it close to the decade-high reached in July this year.

With the dollar gaining and a December rate rise looking more likely, the S&P 500 ended at 2,102, down 0.4 per cent on the day.

Outside of China and Japan, that set a weak tone for most of Asian trading. The downbeat sentiment can be gleaned by the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, a barometer for the region, which is flat after gaining 0.9 per cent on Wednesday.

Among the bigger losers is Sydney's S&P/ASX 200, which is off 0.9 per cent. South Korea's Kospi Composite is down 0.4 per cent.

In Tokyo, Takata shares have plunged 23 per cent to a six-year low as analysts question whether the auto-parts maker can survive the airbag crisis.

SoftBank shares are down 1.5 per cent after the Japanese telecoms group, which bought Sprint in the US in 2013, reporting a rise in operating profits but offered no guidance as it struggles to make Sprint profitable.

"We still think time is needed for improvement at Sprint and momentum remains sluggish for the domestic communications business," said analysts at Barclays. "We believe SoftBank continues to lack a clear growth driver."




welcome back :china:!!!!!

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Wasn't China like :supaburn: back in September? I don't think you can so easily rebound from a Black Thursday crash of great proportions.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
Are most of the stocks on the listing still frozen out?

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010
Confucius says, when a cat falls from a great height, it bounces very high.

Fundamentally, China has the same problems as two months ago. It's just that markets have the memory of a goldfish.

Fojar38
Sep 2, 2011


Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia


also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Morrow posted:

Confucius says, when a cat falls from a great height, it bounces very high.

Fundamentally, China has the same problems as two months ago. It's just that markets have the memory of a goldfish.

It's because the CCP has successfully changed the narrative to "Oh services and consumption are booming!" in part because the rest of the economy is so bad that those things look really good by comparison, and it's astonishing that a ton of otherwise intelligent people have bought it hook line and sinker (although not so astonishing when you remember that back in early September there was a leaked document where the government told the Chinese media what narrative to push.)

Like I don't know poo poo about economics but even I know that you don't turn a country around from manufacturing and heavy industry to services and consumption over the course of 6 loving months and who cares that the 5-year plan had the words "transition" and "innovation" in it for the 4th time in a row.

BCR
Jan 23, 2011

1) In china everything is lies.
2) All the statistics are lies. For accurate results you look at the metals going through HK. And they've been dropping like poo poo off a shovel
3) XX% of the shares are frozen. Not trading.
4) Any sign of a downturn the CCP is prepared to throw apartment heights of cash onto the bonfire of the stock market.
5) Companys are firing workers. Turns out you can't have a export economy if your clients are doing austerity. Pay workers money so they have discretionary income? Not on my loving watch
6) All in all, China is going into the lost decade that Japan had

http://news.investors.com/ibd-edito...-statistics.htm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-08/china-trade-halts-hit-2-2-trillion-as-state-intervention-fails
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/04/china-coal-jixi-idUSL3N12R26C20151104

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


computer parts posted:

Oh they did, which is why it wasn't really enforced unless you were a city dweller (because they typically got more social services).

And even in cities the policy had all kinds of loopholes, at least relatively recently. I teach high school and there are a lot more only children than there were among my peers in the US, but there are quite a few who have siblings. Certainly more than you'd expect in a country that supposedly had a one child policy. :buddy:

There are a few ways around it that I know of:

1) If your first kid is a girl, there's a decent chance you can get permission for a second because girls are useless.
2) If your first kid has some sort of birth defect or mental issue, same thing. One of my students is a girl and her parents had her pretend to be mentally ill, and bribed a doctor to confirm the diagnosis, and thus got permission for another kid.
3) Just pay the fine if you have the cash. It's not nothing but if you're reasonably well off it's not a huge deal either.
4) If you're a minority (Hui, Yi, etc) the policy doesn't apply.

OXBALLS DOT COM
Sep 11, 2005

by FactsAreUseless
Young Orc

Grand Fromage posted:

And even in cities the policy had all kinds of loopholes, at least relatively recently. I teach high school and there are a lot more only children than there were among my peers in the US, but there are quite a few who have siblings. Certainly more than you'd expect in a country that supposedly had a one child policy. :buddy:

There are a few ways around it that I know of:

1) If your first kid is a girl, there's a decent chance you can get permission for a second because girls are useless.
2) If your first kid has some sort of birth defect or mental issue, same thing. One of my students is a girl and her parents had her pretend to be mentally ill, and bribed a doctor to confirm the diagnosis, and thus got permission for another kid.
3) Just pay the fine if you have the cash. It's not nothing but if you're reasonably well off it's not a huge deal either.
4) If you're a minority (Hui, Yi, etc) the policy doesn't apply.

I believe enforcement is done at a local level, so if you're poor and live in an area where the guy is new or ambitious in trying to hit his figures, they might send in the goon squad to drag you off. But if you're rich and/or live in an area where the numbers are ok or the guy is good at faking it then it's a fine and that's it. Chinese local governance in general is obsessed with semi-arbitrary metrics for advancement.

Krispy Wafer
Jul 26, 2002

I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat

Grimey Drawer

Grouchio posted:

Wasn't China like :supaburn: back in September? I don't think you can so easily rebound from a Black Thursday crash of great proportions.

The U.S. stock market recouped much of its losses from 1929 by 1930. Then 1931 and 1932 happened and made 1929 look like a day at the park.

So yeah, we're looking at waaay too narrow a sample here to see the eventual trend.

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


Mange Mite posted:

I believe enforcement is done at a local level, so if you're poor and live in an area where the guy is new or ambitious in trying to hit his figures, they might send in the goon squad to drag you off. But if you're rich and/or live in an area where the numbers are ok or the guy is good at faking it then it's a fine and that's it. Chinese local governance in general is obsessed with semi-arbitrary metrics for advancement.

This is also true. There are areas where it is much more strictly enforced. In any case the picture most people had of ONLY ONE KID FOR EVERYONE, FOREVER was never true and I don't think changing the policy will actually change things that much. China's wealthier people are already at the point where they don't want multiple kids because it's too pricy, like in developed countries. And the vast majority of the really poor people have rural hukou and weren't subject to the policy anyway.

So anyway I think the change is more recognizing reality than actually changing anything.

Dux Supremus
Feb 2, 2009
China commits to 6.5% GDP growth a year through 2020, a totally credible plan nothing could go wrong with.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


That number is sure dropping fast. Were they insisting on 7% growth at the start of 2015 or even higher?

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.
When you're manipulating the numbers at will, does it even matter?

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Freezer posted:

When you're manipulating the numbers at will, does it even matter?

Only in the sense if you want to know what Beijing thinks it can get away with. That said, we more or less Chinese growth more or less could be anywhere between 6-3% at this point.

OXBALLS DOT COM
Sep 11, 2005

by FactsAreUseless
Young Orc

Freezer posted:

When you're manipulating the numbers at will, does it even matter?

Verisimilitude. Don't want to break the reader's immersion

Daduzi
Nov 22, 2005

You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun.

Ardennes posted:

Only in the sense if you want to know what Beijing thinks it can get away with. That said, we more or less Chinese growth more or less could be anywhere between 6-3% at this point.

The general consensus amongst analysts, as far as I've seen, is that the actual GDP figures (minus outright lying) would be around 3-4%. Which would place actual economic growth (minus debt-fuelled construction and real estate speculation) at anywhere between 0 and 3%, which is pretty much in line with what the few non-bogus indicators suggest. I'd wager it's in the lower end of that bracket.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Something nice for all you China Bears.

Incidentally, did you know a China bear is called a - :commissar:

quote:

China Has a $1.2 Trillion Ponzi Finance Problem

Chinese borrowers are taking on record amounts of debt to repay interest on their existing obligations, raising the risk of defaults and adding pressure on policy makers to keep financing costs low.

The amount of loans, bonds and shadow finance arranged to cover interest payments will probably rise 5 percent this year to a record 7.6 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion), according to Beijing-based Hua Chuang Securities Co., whose lead fixed-income analyst was top-ranked by China’s New Fortune magazine in 2012 and 2013. Dubbed “Ponzi finance” by Hyman Minsky, the use of borrowed funds to repay interest was seen by the late U.S. economist as an unsustainable form of credit growth that could precipitate financial crises.

Chinese companies are struggling to generate the cash flow needed to service their obligations as economic growth slows to the weakest pace in 25 years and corporate profits shrink. While the debt burden has been eased by six central bank interest-rate cuts in 12 months and a tumble in corporate borrowing costs to five-year lows, the number of defaults in China’s onshore corporate bond market has increased to six this year from just one in 2014.

“Some Chinese firms have entered the Ponzi stage because return on investment has come down very fast,” said Shi Lei, the Beijing-based head of fixed-income research at Ping An Securities Co., a unit of the nation’s second biggest insurance company. “As a result, leverage will be rising and zombie companies increasing.”
Latest Failure

China Shanshui Cement Group Ltd. became the latest company to default on yuan-denominated domestic notes last week as overcapacity in the industry hurt profits and a shareholder dispute stymied financing. State-owned steelmaker Sinosteel Co., which pushed back an interest payment on a bond last month, postponed it again this week.

Metrics of corporate health in Asia’s largest economy have deteriorated as growth slowed. The number of Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed companies that have less cash than short-term debt, net losses and contracting revenue has increased to 200 as of June from 115 in the year-earlier period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Borrowings Climb

Total debt at listed companies has climbed to 141 percent of common equity, based on a market-capitalization weighted average, the highest level in three years.

While the total amount of debt issued to pay interest is projected by Hua Chuang Securities to increase, it’s taking up a smaller portion of overall new credit. The firm predicts such borrowing will account for 45 percent of new total social financing -- which includes bank loans, shadow banking credit and corporate bonds -- down from 50 percent last year, according to a Nov. 4 report.

Plunging borrowing costs have made it less expensive for Chinese companies to gain access to fresh cash. The rate on five-year corporate debt with AAA ratings dropped to a five-year low of 3.69 percent on Oct. 29 and was last at 3.95 percent.

At the same time, policy makers are taking steps to insure credit keeps flowing to borrowers in need. Chinese banks shouldn’t cut or withdraw lending to companies in “temporary” difficulties, Premier Li Keqiang said last month, adding that the government will take steps to prevent systemic risks. The People’s Bank of China has cut its benchmark one-year lending rate to 4.35 percent from 6 percent a year ago, helping to fuel 6.6 percent growth in outstanding corporate bonds this year to 19.2 trillion yuan as of October.
Defaults Forecast

“The lower funding rates have lessened the interest burden on Chinese companies,” said Xia Le, a Hong Kong-based economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA.

Defaults will probably keep rising as profits fail to keep up with interest expenses at some Chinese borrowers, according to Zhou Hao, a senior economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. Earnings at Chinese industrial firms shrank for a fourth straight month in September, while producer prices fell for the 44th consecutive month in October. China’s economic growth will probably slow to 6.9 percent this year, the weakest pace since 1990, from 7.3 percent in 2014, according to economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“We will see more defaults and rising bad loans in the financial system,” Zhou said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/china-has-a-1-2-trillion-ponzi-finance-problem-as-debt-piles-up

The Lord of Hats
Aug 22, 2010

Hello, yes! Is being very good day for posting, no?

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Something nice for all you China Bears.

Incidentally, did you know a China bear is called a - :commissar:


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/china-has-a-1-2-trillion-ponzi-finance-problem-as-debt-piles-up

I can't even begin to imagine how bad this is going to be. There has to be an absolute shitload of debt that was taken out based on completely trumped-up growth projections. I wonder how far the CCP will go to try and feed the beast just a little bit longer; they already took a big hit to their currency reserves propping up the fraction of the stock market they allowed to stay active, and I feel like all of this debt defaulting is going to make that look like small potatoes.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

c-spam cannot afford



They're ramping up the war machine and going to be loving around in the levant so that will provide an economic boost that might help mitigate the crash.

MothraAttack
Apr 28, 2008
Don't worry guys, China is just in a poor country recession which means everything is completely fine!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dont-buy-the-china-doom-and-gloom-stories-just-yet-20151119-gl2oep.html

Fojar38
Sep 2, 2011


Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia


also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Mr. Nice! posted:

They're ramping up the war machine and going to be loving around in the levant so that will provide an economic boost that might help mitigate the crash.

By what means is China going to project power to Syria and Iraq

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

c-spam cannot afford



Fojar38 posted:

By what means is China going to project power to Syria and Iraq

You got me, I'm just referring to this: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/china-declares-war-isis-after-6862200

Fojar38
Sep 2, 2011


Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia


also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->
Yeah I noticed lots of "Watch out ISIS China is coming for you!" articles after the attack in Mali which seems to ignore that the only country that is capable of projecting significant power into the region is the USA. Even Russia has trouble and it's much closer than China.

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

BCR posted:

1) In china everything is lies.
2) All the statistics are lies. For accurate results you look at the metals going through HK. And they've been dropping like poo poo off a shovel


China has a long and sordid history with this, I went to a talk the other day on how the famine could partially be attributed to the central government getting completely made up and unrealistic numbers on food production. One local governor would lie and then others around him would lie even more so they didn't look bad. By the end of it you had completely insane things coming out like farms being 1000x more productive than what US farmers were doing at the time.

Fojar38 posted:

Yeah I noticed lots of "Watch out ISIS China is coming for you!" articles after the attack in Mali which seems to ignore that the only country that is capable of projecting significant power into the region is the USA. Even Russia has trouble and it's much closer than China.

I think people just take what the US can do for granted and don't realize that projecting power wherever you want/need it instantly is incredibly expensive and difficult. You basically need to, well, spend more than the next x countries combined. I wonder if things are going to be changing in Europe on this issue, they've relied on the US subsidizing their defense but France is starting to get very vocal on how pathetic European countries militaries are and maybe that's a bad thing.

TROIKA CURES GREEK fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Nov 22, 2015

MothraAttack
Apr 28, 2008
So is this sort of thing regular?

https://twitter.com/george_chen/status/668593705574653953?s=17

Fojar38
Sep 2, 2011


Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia


also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

As of late, yes.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN0vUlljX0I&t=134s

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Shanghai Composite index down 1.77% :getin:

  • Locked thread