|
More children = slower growth? My first thought is that it's some bizarre plan to force start more demand and growth. But they have no idea what to do so they're just doing whatever?
|
# ? Oct 29, 2015 13:26 |
|
|
# ? Jun 6, 2024 05:56 |
|
Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/china-steel-chief-says-demand-evaporating-at-unprecedented-speed When they say China's steel production will contract by a fifth, like the U.S., Europe, and Japan - are they referring to a recent drop or the historical decline, described rhythmically by the piano stylings of Billy Joel? No, they never taught us what was real, Iron and coke, Chromium Steel 十三五
|
# ? Oct 29, 2015 13:30 |
|
Ardennes posted:It has been in the cards for a while, but I think the recent crisis has caught them flatfooted. Also, it is going to take 18 years before that new generation comes of age, a bit too late to save Chinese growth. Don't Chinese children start working in the mines at like 6?
|
# ? Oct 29, 2015 13:34 |
Poil posted:More children = slower growth? They are freaking out about demographics. The percentage of the population at working age (and thus contributibg to GDP) is on the decline and that is about to get a hell of a lot worse soon. It is also an issue which may cause unrest because there is little social safety net to speak of and you will have one kid supporting two parents. If that kid isn't able to make enough money to comfortablly support all three people you might end up with people asking uncomfortable questions about the ability of the CCP to properly guide the country.
|
|
# ? Oct 29, 2015 14:41 |
|
So did they just not see what the One Child Policy would do to the economy, especially for retirees, and not plan around it? Especially when the West was starting to go through the same thing when the policy was implemented, it should have been obvious.
|
# ? Oct 29, 2015 15:02 |
|
Slaan posted:So did they just not see what the One Child Policy would do to the economy, especially for retirees, and not plan around it? Especially when the West was starting to go through the same thing when the policy was implemented, it should have been obvious. They didn't see what the One Child Policy would do for their lopsided male/female ratio either. I seriously doubted they looked too carefully into unintended consequences beyond, "HOLY poo poo WE HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE!"
|
# ? Oct 29, 2015 15:25 |
|
Probably more kick the can than not foreseeing it, I think. "I'm not going to be Premier when the demographic poo poo hits the economic fan but we are struggling to feed everyone now. So, I hope they remember to plan for this later!"
|
# ? Oct 29, 2015 15:30 |
|
Slaan posted:So did they just not see what the One Child Policy would do to the economy, especially for retirees, and not plan around it? Especially when the West was starting to go through the same thing when the policy was implemented, it should have been obvious. Oh they did, which is why it wasn't really enforced unless you were a city dweller (because they typically got more social services).
|
# ? Oct 29, 2015 16:09 |
|
Slaan posted:So did they just not see what the One Child Policy would do to the economy, especially for retirees, and not plan around it? Especially when the West was starting to go through the same thing when the policy was implemented, it should have been obvious. well, the whole demographic crisis thing wasn't on the radar back in '79 or whenever they started it, and today probably the hubris of Chinese exceptionalism is blinding the CCP to the fact the country is a flaming trainwreck
|
# ? Oct 29, 2015 16:56 |
|
icantfindaname posted:well, the whole demographic crisis thing wasn't on the radar back in '79 or whenever they started it, and today probably the hubris of Chinese exceptionalism is blinding the CCP to the fact the country is a flaming trainwreck I think that's a little hyperbolic.
|
# ? Oct 29, 2015 17:17 |
|
Slaan posted:Probably more kick the can than not foreseeing it, I think. "I'm not going to be Premier when the demographic poo poo hits the economic fan but we are struggling to feed everyone now. So, I hope they remember to plan for this later!" The "in the long run, I'll be dead " school of economic planning.
|
# ? Oct 30, 2015 00:54 |
|
quote:The most egregious examples from the Chinese government’s long, sordid history of data-doctoring http://qz.com/530096/china-data-tricks/ This is a good article to read.
|
# ? Oct 31, 2015 12:46 |
|
https://next.ft.com/content/7b4a6058-3b53-3f7e-8225-ddee12993589quote:China in "bull market" as stocks +20% from August welcome back !!!!!
|
# ? Nov 5, 2015 04:46 |
|
Wasn't China like back in September? I don't think you can so easily rebound from a Black Thursday crash of great proportions.
|
# ? Nov 5, 2015 06:49 |
|
Are most of the stocks on the listing still frozen out?
|
# ? Nov 5, 2015 07:13 |
|
Confucius says, when a cat falls from a great height, it bounces very high. Fundamentally, China has the same problems as two months ago. It's just that markets have the memory of a goldfish.
|
# ? Nov 5, 2015 18:41 |
|
Morrow posted:Confucius says, when a cat falls from a great height, it bounces very high. It's because the CCP has successfully changed the narrative to "Oh services and consumption are booming!" in part because the rest of the economy is so bad that those things look really good by comparison, and it's astonishing that a ton of otherwise intelligent people have bought it hook line and sinker (although not so astonishing when you remember that back in early September there was a leaked document where the government told the Chinese media what narrative to push.) Like I don't know poo poo about economics but even I know that you don't turn a country around from manufacturing and heavy industry to services and consumption over the course of 6 loving months and who cares that the 5-year plan had the words "transition" and "innovation" in it for the 4th time in a row.
|
# ? Nov 5, 2015 20:46 |
|
1) In china everything is lies. 2) All the statistics are lies. For accurate results you look at the metals going through HK. And they've been dropping like poo poo off a shovel 3) XX% of the shares are frozen. Not trading. 4) Any sign of a downturn the CCP is prepared to throw apartment heights of cash onto the bonfire of the stock market. 5) Companys are firing workers. Turns out you can't have a export economy if your clients are doing austerity. Pay workers money so they have discretionary income? Not on my loving watch 6) All in all, China is going into the lost decade that Japan had http://news.investors.com/ibd-edito...-statistics.htm http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-08/china-trade-halts-hit-2-2-trillion-as-state-intervention-fails http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/04/china-coal-jixi-idUSL3N12R26C20151104
|
# ? Nov 6, 2015 02:42 |
|
computer parts posted:Oh they did, which is why it wasn't really enforced unless you were a city dweller (because they typically got more social services). And even in cities the policy had all kinds of loopholes, at least relatively recently. I teach high school and there are a lot more only children than there were among my peers in the US, but there are quite a few who have siblings. Certainly more than you'd expect in a country that supposedly had a one child policy. There are a few ways around it that I know of: 1) If your first kid is a girl, there's a decent chance you can get permission for a second because girls are useless. 2) If your first kid has some sort of birth defect or mental issue, same thing. One of my students is a girl and her parents had her pretend to be mentally ill, and bribed a doctor to confirm the diagnosis, and thus got permission for another kid. 3) Just pay the fine if you have the cash. It's not nothing but if you're reasonably well off it's not a huge deal either. 4) If you're a minority (Hui, Yi, etc) the policy doesn't apply.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2015 15:49 |
|
Grand Fromage posted:And even in cities the policy had all kinds of loopholes, at least relatively recently. I teach high school and there are a lot more only children than there were among my peers in the US, but there are quite a few who have siblings. Certainly more than you'd expect in a country that supposedly had a one child policy. I believe enforcement is done at a local level, so if you're poor and live in an area where the guy is new or ambitious in trying to hit his figures, they might send in the goon squad to drag you off. But if you're rich and/or live in an area where the numbers are ok or the guy is good at faking it then it's a fine and that's it. Chinese local governance in general is obsessed with semi-arbitrary metrics for advancement.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2015 16:03 |
|
Grouchio posted:Wasn't China like back in September? I don't think you can so easily rebound from a Black Thursday crash of great proportions. The U.S. stock market recouped much of its losses from 1929 by 1930. Then 1931 and 1932 happened and made 1929 look like a day at the park. So yeah, we're looking at waaay too narrow a sample here to see the eventual trend.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2015 16:06 |
|
Mange Mite posted:I believe enforcement is done at a local level, so if you're poor and live in an area where the guy is new or ambitious in trying to hit his figures, they might send in the goon squad to drag you off. But if you're rich and/or live in an area where the numbers are ok or the guy is good at faking it then it's a fine and that's it. Chinese local governance in general is obsessed with semi-arbitrary metrics for advancement. This is also true. There are areas where it is much more strictly enforced. In any case the picture most people had of ONLY ONE KID FOR EVERYONE, FOREVER was never true and I don't think changing the policy will actually change things that much. China's wealthier people are already at the point where they don't want multiple kids because it's too pricy, like in developed countries. And the vast majority of the really poor people have rural hukou and weren't subject to the policy anyway. So anyway I think the change is more recognizing reality than actually changing anything.
|
# ? Nov 6, 2015 16:08 |
|
China commits to 6.5% GDP growth a year through 2020, a totally credible plan nothing could go wrong with.
|
# ? Nov 9, 2015 11:45 |
|
That number is sure dropping fast. Were they insisting on 7% growth at the start of 2015 or even higher?
|
# ? Nov 9, 2015 11:52 |
|
When you're manipulating the numbers at will, does it even matter?
|
# ? Nov 9, 2015 16:56 |
|
Freezer posted:When you're manipulating the numbers at will, does it even matter? Only in the sense if you want to know what Beijing thinks it can get away with. That said, we more or less Chinese growth more or less could be anywhere between 6-3% at this point.
|
# ? Nov 9, 2015 17:00 |
|
Freezer posted:When you're manipulating the numbers at will, does it even matter? Verisimilitude. Don't want to break the reader's immersion
|
# ? Nov 9, 2015 17:02 |
|
Ardennes posted:Only in the sense if you want to know what Beijing thinks it can get away with. That said, we more or less Chinese growth more or less could be anywhere between 6-3% at this point. The general consensus amongst analysts, as far as I've seen, is that the actual GDP figures (minus outright lying) would be around 3-4%. Which would place actual economic growth (minus debt-fuelled construction and real estate speculation) at anywhere between 0 and 3%, which is pretty much in line with what the few non-bogus indicators suggest. I'd wager it's in the lower end of that bracket.
|
# ? Nov 10, 2015 15:28 |
|
Something nice for all you China Bears. Incidentally, did you know a China bear is called a - quote:China Has a $1.2 Trillion Ponzi Finance Problem http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/china-has-a-1-2-trillion-ponzi-finance-problem-as-debt-piles-up
|
# ? Nov 20, 2015 06:21 |
|
Jumpingmanjim posted:Something nice for all you China Bears. I can't even begin to imagine how bad this is going to be. There has to be an absolute shitload of debt that was taken out based on completely trumped-up growth projections. I wonder how far the CCP will go to try and feed the beast just a little bit longer; they already took a big hit to their currency reserves propping up the fraction of the stock market they allowed to stay active, and I feel like all of this debt defaulting is going to make that look like small potatoes.
|
# ? Nov 20, 2015 06:38 |
|
They're ramping up the war machine and going to be loving around in the levant so that will provide an economic boost that might help mitigate the crash.
|
# ? Nov 22, 2015 15:37 |
|
Don't worry guys, China is just in a poor country recession which means everything is completely fine! http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dont-buy-the-china-doom-and-gloom-stories-just-yet-20151119-gl2oep.html
|
# ? Nov 22, 2015 18:30 |
|
Mr. Nice! posted:They're ramping up the war machine and going to be loving around in the levant so that will provide an economic boost that might help mitigate the crash. By what means is China going to project power to Syria and Iraq
|
# ? Nov 22, 2015 20:57 |
|
Fojar38 posted:By what means is China going to project power to Syria and Iraq You got me, I'm just referring to this: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/china-declares-war-isis-after-6862200
|
# ? Nov 22, 2015 21:25 |
|
Yeah I noticed lots of "Watch out ISIS China is coming for you!" articles after the attack in Mali which seems to ignore that the only country that is capable of projecting significant power into the region is the USA. Even Russia has trouble and it's much closer than China.
|
# ? Nov 22, 2015 21:28 |
|
BCR posted:1) In china everything is lies. China has a long and sordid history with this, I went to a talk the other day on how the famine could partially be attributed to the central government getting completely made up and unrealistic numbers on food production. One local governor would lie and then others around him would lie even more so they didn't look bad. By the end of it you had completely insane things coming out like farms being 1000x more productive than what US farmers were doing at the time. Fojar38 posted:Yeah I noticed lots of "Watch out ISIS China is coming for you!" articles after the attack in Mali which seems to ignore that the only country that is capable of projecting significant power into the region is the USA. Even Russia has trouble and it's much closer than China. I think people just take what the US can do for granted and don't realize that projecting power wherever you want/need it instantly is incredibly expensive and difficult. You basically need to, well, spend more than the next x countries combined. I wonder if things are going to be changing in Europe on this issue, they've relied on the US subsidizing their defense but France is starting to get very vocal on how pathetic European countries militaries are and maybe that's a bad thing. TROIKA CURES GREEK fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Nov 22, 2015 |
# ? Nov 22, 2015 21:44 |
|
So is this sort of thing regular? https://twitter.com/george_chen/status/668593705574653953?s=17
|
# ? Nov 23, 2015 01:57 |
|
MothraAttack posted:So is this sort of thing regular? As of late, yes.
|
# ? Nov 23, 2015 02:20 |
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN0vUlljX0I&t=134s
|
# ? Nov 23, 2015 02:38 |
|
|
# ? Jun 6, 2024 05:56 |
|
Shanghai Composite index down 1.77%
|
# ? Nov 30, 2015 05:20 |