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Logikv9 posted:I'm getting a little uneasy on my RUBIO.RNOM yes shares because of all the new developments about how he has basically quit the senate in all but name only. I'll see if this stuff sticks but I wouldn't be surprised if somebody uses it against him once his numbers goes up. hope you didnt sell
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Oct 29, 2015 18:30
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| # ? Apr 29, 2024 04:59 |
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So if there are people who literally get the poll results one day earlier than everyone else, there's literally no way the poll markets can be fair? VVV Well that's the thing, there are a bunch of people in the comments saying Gallup is dropping big tomorrow. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 18:42 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 18:34
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In order for Gallup's current poll number not to drop tomorrow, tomorrow's daily poll needs to be at least 48% or higher. No idea how likely or unlikely that is.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:38
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Well, the polls for at least 3 out of the last 5 days were at least .48 or higher according to that GA screenshot somebody posted. So, definitely likely, but hardly more than a 55-60% chance maybe. Somebody great at probability on the fly can probably figure it out.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:40
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Combed Thunderclap posted:In order for Gallup's current poll number not to drop tomorrow, tomorrow's daily poll needs to be at least 48% or higher. No idea how likely or unlikely that is. But even if that happens, wouldn't 46% still eek out a win? This is so idiotic.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:42
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Well 46 is down to 20% anyway, people are gullible as gently caress on these. I need to start building up a crazy persona to manipulate the markets.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:43
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Vox Nihili posted:But even if that happens, wouldn't 46% still eek out a win? OK, so it seems as though traders's current concerns are revolving around the Gallup and the Rasmussen because they operate on daily rolling averages (is the Rasmussen really updated daily? No idea.). I recalculated the Gallup averaging (because I figured out how to turn off their silly whole numbers rounding) and tomorrow's poll actually only needs to be 46.563% in order for the averaged total to add up to 46.5, get rounded up, and produce no change. But even then, tomorrow's daily Rasmussen needs to be higher than the average of 50 (or 49.5, since they probably round too) for no change to occur. People are betting that at least one of the two will change sufficiently to cause a drop. (This is still all idle speculation and that market is totally nuts.)
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Oct 29, 2015 18:50
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Zeta Taskforce posted:There is a new Obama approval market out after a short absence. They are pure gambling, but I'm going to do an experiment to see if I can outsmart it. I'm still following this strategy, and the only modification I would have made is to put less money in early in the week when the markets are more stable and weight it towards the end when there are wild swings. The good news is I bought $4 of NO in every tranche and that meant I bought 27 NO @ 15 for 46+ and comparatively fewer of the others. Still wondering how it will turn out in the end.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:55
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Combed Thunderclap posted:OK, so it seems as though traders's current concerns are revolving around the Gallup and the Rasmussen because they operate on daily rolling averages (is the Rasmussen really updated daily? No idea.). There are a lot of people in there saying "I don't see how Ras could go up tomorrow" but it very easily could. They want to play it like those idiots at the roulette wheel who say "black is due!" but the Ras tomorrow could easily be an upward outlier. There's nothing informing this, just wild speculation and straight gambling.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:57
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pathetic little tramp posted:There are a lot of people in there saying "I don't see how Ras could go up tomorrow" but it very easily could. They want to play it like those idiots at the roulette wheel who say "black is due!" but the Ras tomorrow could easily be an upward outlier. There's nothing informing this, just wild speculation and straight gambling. Yep! I definitely think either outcome is possible. Likelihoods on what's possible won't actually change until Gallup's daily poll is released tomorrow.
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Oct 29, 2015 19:01
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oh my god don't play the poll markets
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Oct 29, 2015 19:05
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Aliquid posted:oh my god don't play the poll markets i have learned my lesson. my milk today is sour.
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Oct 29, 2015 19:07
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Aliquid posted:oh my god don't play the poll markets Oh I'm not, I'm just watching the people in the comments go into hysterics and the markets swinging 20 points at the slightest provocation.
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Oct 29, 2015 19:08
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I thought I had a huge swing last night, but in fact they just closed out my Paul Ryan NO positions. I really don't like that gain/loss bar.
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Oct 29, 2015 19:09
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Aliquid posted:oh my god don't play the poll markets
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Oct 29, 2015 19:10
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My Bush, Bernie, and Carson NOs are doing well this week... Hoping polls show a bit of drainage from Carson to Cruz after the debate. Is anyone here invested in the LA Gubernatorial race contracts? Near 50/50. Seems like Edwards should be ahead given all of the stats (wide leads in all recent polls, endorsements, etc), but I have no deeper experience in the region's politics beyond reading a series of articles on the race recently.
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Oct 29, 2015 19:11
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Threw some Biden/Ryan winnings on this Obama poll market and lol that'll teach me to gamble on that ever again
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Oct 29, 2015 19:11
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I'll lose some on the Obama poll market, but I luckily balanced most of it out by doing well on the debate market last night. My strategy of buying low on some of the candidates and selling quickly after they said a few good zingers and went up in the market worked out. I may be out of the poll markets after today, too. Had a good run, but..no more.
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Oct 29, 2015 19:27
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I only put in a bit of my Ryan profits so I'm just enjoying this taste of chaos. 
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Oct 29, 2015 19:28
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thethreeman posted:My Bush, Bernie, and Carson NOs are doing well this week... Hoping polls show a bit of drainage from Carson to Cruz after the debate. I originally got in for the Dems winning @ 29-30, got out at about .40, then quickly bought back in again. The fact is this is an off-year election in a deep red state. Someone had a good quote, and it's that the race will come down to whether voters hate Obama more than they dislike Vitter. Hard to say. 50/50 seems about right, but I like Bel Edwards' chances in this one.
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Oct 29, 2015 19:30
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:hope you didnt sell nope, rubio not only made my dreams come true but also streamrolled jeb! in the process which boosted other shares I was holding 
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Oct 29, 2015 19:33
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I'm going to buy Rubio NO because Ted Cruz is going to win the election.
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Oct 29, 2015 21:33
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Can we just add a big bolded DONT PLAY THE POLL MARKETS to the OP?
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Oct 29, 2015 22:06
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It should be in the helpful hints section. Also the "don't make bets while drunk" should be taken out because I've made like 10 bucks while I'm drunk.
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Oct 29, 2015 22:30
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JosefStalinator posted:Can we just add a big bolded DONT PLAY THE POLL MARKETS to the OP? There are ways to play them, but definitely don't play the poll markets the day before they close off crowd sourced info. Either get in at the beginning and cash out by day 3 or wait until the end and buy up the penny profits on a definite thing. Keeping in mind of course that some intern at RCP could decided to add or remove polls at any time, including 11:59:58 seconds the day it ends.
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Oct 29, 2015 22:45
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If I had any personal advice I could add to the OP, it would be to avoid putting money in any markets for 24 hours after a market closes. Too easy to ride a high right into a market you don't actually know anything about. (Godspeed,  in the poll market.)
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Oct 29, 2015 22:57
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I really don't see why LAGOV is 50/50. It's Louisiana, an abortion scandal that's already running through the spin machine isn't going to keep people from voting for a republican. There'd have to be video of Vitter doing the abortion himself by hand, and even then I'd say Edwards wins maybe 50.2 to 49.8.
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Oct 29, 2015 23:25
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pathetic little tramp posted:I really don't see why LAGOV is 50/50. It's Louisiana, an abortion scandal that's already running through the spin machine isn't going to keep people from voting for a republican. There'd have to be video of Vitter doing the abortion himself by hand, and even then I'd say Edwards wins maybe 50.2 to 49.8. Yeah I have a poo poo load of money in that one, the buy/sell spread on REP YES is like 20 cents right now for some reason too.
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Oct 29, 2015 23:29
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pathetic little tramp posted:those idiots at the roulette wheel who say "black is due!" At this point, such idiots are far more rational than the poll markets.
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Oct 29, 2015 23:39
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updated the OP
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Oct 30, 2015 00:17
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Stereotype posted:It should be in the helpful hints section. Are you John Mulaney? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmuIVwq3aeY
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Oct 30, 2015 00:26
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Milk Malk posted:i have learned my lesson. my milk today is sour. i need a pie chart about predictit poll markets
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Oct 30, 2015 05:47
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The senate is voting on the debt limit increase in 8 minutes and there are still NO shares to be had
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Oct 30, 2015 05:53
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EngineerSean posted:I thought I had a huge swing last night, but in fact they just closed out my Paul Ryan NO positions. I really don't like that gain/loss bar. Now I thought I had a huge negative swing last night but I just sold all my Budget YES positions at 99c, so my gain/loss went from hugely positive to hugely negative even though I made a bunch of money. Is there an option to change that bar up top?
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Oct 30, 2015 11:28
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The Obama 46% market is shooting back up for some reason
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Oct 30, 2015 14:09
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Rasmussen has a 51 today.
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Oct 30, 2015 14:17
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Milk Malk posted:Rasmussen has a 51 today. I still decided to get out at .70 -- exactly where I got in. Don't know what Gallup's going to do now, so I didn't want to risk it. Put the rest of my available money in Jeb NO for the nomination. Just gonna let that sit for a while.
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Oct 30, 2015 14:32
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nachos posted:The Obama 46% market is shooting back up for some reason Still no regrets about cutting and running.
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Oct 30, 2015 15:00
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DPRKNUKE15 NO is still way undervalued imo if anyone wants in on that. edit: lol I forgot how dumb this market used to be: 
Necc0 has issued a correction as of 15:04 on Oct 30, 2015 |
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Oct 30, 2015 15:02
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| # ? Apr 29, 2024 04:59 |
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new CNN post-debate Republican poll http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/20/politics/carly-fiorina-donald-trump-republican-2016-poll/
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Oct 30, 2015 15:06
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