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 I hope some of y'all are paying attention to the news at 1pm on a Sunday
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Nov 1, 2015 20:10
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The best part is he posted that yesterday. Halloween, Saturday, the definition of the worst day to create some buzz. Sweet merciful Christ Jim Webb is Bushian in his "bad-at-this"ness. Your campaign is so boring it took a full loving day to swing the PredictIt market. vvvv(I know right? I just managed to get the last few shares at 54. What a way to make some money)
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Nov 1, 2015 20:12
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Still Webb Yes shares available! Managed to snag 400 at an average of 64c myself. Finally happened to check the site at the right time.
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Nov 1, 2015 20:13
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Gyges posted:Trump has a 32 poll as his oldest, which is also his highest poll. Meanwhile he has a 22 poll as his second newest, which is his lowest. If the rest of his polls are in the 20s then that should be a relatively significant drop. Jeb! not being the biggest failure (or at least the biggest loser, he is till the biggest failure) is a reasonable bet. It looks like Huckabee and Cristie dropped in the last few days from polls being dropped and Jeb! is flat. With it trading in the 70's, there is more upside potential. Also, what's the deal with the Debt Ceiling? That's settled right, or is there something that needs to happen still based on the way the rules were written?
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Nov 1, 2015 20:15
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Wow how did Webb yes shares crash down to 74 so quickly? I want to sell my shares at 95 just in case there's some bizarre bullshit I'm not seeing.
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Nov 1, 2015 20:17
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Volumes are still a bit low. Once news spreads we will be good. e: aaand there we go. all cleaned out. that was a nice win finally. huge pile of hamburger has issued a correction as of 20:24 on Nov 1, 2015 |
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Nov 1, 2015 20:18
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Indeed. Glad I got out at 96 though, juuuuuuuust in case there's some weird trick where he's technically just running a "declare independence" campaign to raise awareness of 2-party bullshit, but isn't actually running for president.
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Nov 1, 2015 20:26
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pathetic little tramp posted:Indeed. Glad I got out at 96 though, juuuuuuuust in case there's some weird trick where he's technically just running a "declare independence" campaign to raise awareness of 2-party bullshit, but isn't actually running for president. "Former U.S. senator Jim Webb shall become a third party or independent candidate for president of the United States in the 2016 general election, by filing a new or amended Statement of Candidacy and/or a Statement of Organization of a principal campaign committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission, with such filing not bearing a party affiliation of either Republican or Democratic." He filed an amended Statement of Candidacy listing his party affiliation as Unknown. Looks pretty solid to me. Still selling at 99c, though. Someone else can wait on PredictIt to confirm.
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Nov 1, 2015 20:27
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Vox Nihili posted:Still Webb Yes shares available! Managed to snag 400 at an average of 64c myself. Finally happened to check the site at the right time. Ahahaha, he filed the papers two days ago and no one even knew (because he really is that incompetent) I got really lucky and saw the FEC filing comment before it was too late. Dumped all my NO shares at a moderate loss. Made back most of the loss from turning around and immediately buying YES shares. This site is crazy.
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Nov 1, 2015 20:30
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I checked his Twitter, one of his recent tweets since the relaunch has a grand total of one reply: https://twitter.com/JimWebbUSA/status/660827053088985088 That reply is: quote:ReginaldConwayIII @ReginaldConway 11m11 minutes ago This could be hilariously disastrous if he weren't already such a non-starter
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Nov 1, 2015 20:34
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Grabbing a couple 1 cent no shares juuuuuuuust incase. Man that was a good ride though.
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Nov 1, 2015 20:49
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gently caress my life
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Nov 1, 2015 21:00
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Aliquid posted:Just lost $3, could have been way worse. $283  I apologize for being part of a wrongheaded consensus.
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Nov 1, 2015 21:01
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thank god i didn't know enough on the subject to bet any money on this
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Nov 1, 2015 21:03
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You can't be blamed for thinking Jim Webb wouldn't run. It's a terrible decision, but Jim Webb isn't as smart as Joe Biden.
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Nov 1, 2015 21:13
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Milk Malk posted:gently caress my life The saddest milk   The sucktastic moral of the story: Never not be checking PredictIt. The real moral of the story: plug yourself in to whatever source of things actually causes market closure. Just constantly refreshing the FEC site could have been a gold-mine. (The realer moral: Don't be wrong.) pathetic little tramp posted:You can't be blamed for thinking Jim Webb wouldn't run. It's a terrible decision, but Jim Webb isn't as smart as Joe Biden. I'm kicking myself because this very morning I checked Joe Biden's twitter page (always full of the usual White House PR stuff) to compare it to Jim Webb's twitter (overflowing with hand-picked tweets about how awesome Webb is and how he needs to run independent) and went "huh, Webb's really acting like he's going to run, none of this Biden shadow game stuff — but it's impossible because he's never going to raise the funds to make actually getting ballot access viable and he can't actually be that stupid, he was vacuous on stage but he can't possibly be that stupid —" 
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Nov 1, 2015 21:26
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pathetic little tramp posted:You can't be blamed for thinking Jim Webb wouldn't run. It's a terrible decision, but Jim Webb isn't as smart as Joe Biden. This won't be near as taxing for Webb as it would have been for Biden, because Webb already knows he lost.
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Nov 1, 2015 21:27
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Combed Thunderclap posted:
The thing is its been like that since Friday (!). Incredible that no one bothered to check, including myself, until today.
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Nov 1, 2015 21:36
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Goddamnit, gently caress you Webb. What could possibly be your motivation here?
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Nov 1, 2015 21:40
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Salvor_Hardin posted:Goddamnit, gently caress you Webb. Well he still has $300,000 in campaign money to burn through. Unlike Biden, he had already officially been on the campaign trail for months. He'll probably drop out before paying for ballot access bankrupts his campaign, though.
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Nov 1, 2015 21:50
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Of course I was taking a nap when I had a chance to cut my losses
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Nov 1, 2015 22:11
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Fiorina not being the debate loser looks like a safe bet in the high 70's. She's been polling flat. I think its a tossup between Cruz or Rubio winning, which would make Carson overinflated. Carson not being the winner looks good too.
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Nov 1, 2015 22:16
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Welp. This is the first non-poll/gambly bet I've lost. It's a good thing I don't use anything more than 'let's make this interesting' money. At least my Biden winnings overshadow this 
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Nov 1, 2015 22:20
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Fiorina not being the debate loser looks like a safe bet in the high 70's. She's been polling flat. That IBD poll has everyone spooked since it had some really weird numbers. All of the minor candidates fell into the 1-3 range, including Fiorina. This would appear to be a natural point to buy the stock of these minor candidates, but the problem is that we don't know how many new polls will be added. The stupid market only remains open until the 4th, and we could easily have 0 new polls or 5 new polls in the next 3 days. Moral of the story: Don't bet on the polls.
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Nov 1, 2015 22:20
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Vox Nihili posted:That IBD poll has everyone spooked since it had some really weird numbers. All of the minor candidates fell into the 1-3 range, including Fiorina. My strategy is to go heavy into no, since they are inherently undervalued and spread out money around and not make any one big bet on anything. But they are pure gambling
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Nov 1, 2015 22:36
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Zeta Taskforce posted:My strategy is to go heavy into no, since they are inherently undervalued and spread out money around and not make any one big bet on anything. Yeah, broad no bets are the way to go. Those markets are really attractive to me since a lot of the traders can't really work out the math well enough to figure out who will actually win or loss in a given scenario, but that absurd Chafee outcome really drove home how random they are. Fortunately, I was only watching on that one, but I could easily have lost a lot of money on what looked like a sure thing.
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Nov 1, 2015 22:46
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Who is currently "winning" the debate anyway? Still not to late to put on some reasonable buy requests for Webb. I put up a max request at 93, forgot about it and when I got back from the store was wondering what the hell happened to my available money. Anyone looking for a long term bet guaranteed to make you some money, Democrat Losing and Republican Winning 2016 are down in the 30s. Doesn't matter who gets nominated that poo poo's going to hit at least 55/60 on both sides at some point during the general.
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Nov 1, 2015 22:56
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Gyges posted:Who is currently "winning" the debate anyway? Here's where we're at now, it is literally still anyone's game on the win side Trump +0.2 Carson +0.2 Rubio +0.6 Bush -0.4 Cruz +0.4 Fiorina -0.2 Huckabee -0.8 Paul -0.6 Kasich -0.4 Christine -0.6 Here's my thoughts: Winner: Rubio is overpriced at 55c, Cruz is overpriced at 29c, Trump is underpriced at 6c, Fiorina is underpriced at 2c. Loser: Huckabee is overpriced at 33c, Fiorina is overpriced at 23c, Carson is underpriced at 4c EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 23:12 on Nov 1, 2015 |
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Nov 1, 2015 23:10
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Are you all holding onto the debt limit through contract close date or selling at 99? It seems weird that this is still open. Is there some technicality that is preventing this from closing?
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Nov 2, 2015 01:06
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Vote happened over the weekend. Guessing they won't close the market until Monday morning.
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Nov 2, 2015 01:37
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Necc0 posted:Vote happened over the weekend. Guessing they won't close the market until Monday morning. Unless Obama hasn't signed the bill, that's irrelevant. All the October 31st poll results already closed. Also end the Jim Webb Independent run market, he already declared almost a full day before anyone noticed, keeping the market open seems a bit cruel. Edit: An the Jim Webb market makes no sense. The price for an event that already happened has fallen down to the mid 90s/high 80s if anyone wants to buy in and hasn't yet. Gyges has issued a correction as of 03:36 on Nov 2, 2015 |
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Nov 2, 2015 01:39
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Gyges posted:Also end the Jim Webb Independent run market, he already declared almost a full day before anyone noticed, keeping the market open seems a bit cruel. I don't get why this still isn't in the news at all. I mean, no stories on Google News, nothing on Twitter except Webb's single tweet. Don't all the major news outfits have people monitoring this stuff? Wouldn't a new independent run merit at least a footnote?
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Nov 2, 2015 03:53
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Corrupt Politician posted:I don't get why this still isn't in the news at all. I mean, no stories on Google News, nothing on Twitter except Webb's single tweet. Don't all the major news outfits have people monitoring this stuff? Wouldn't a new independent run merit at least a footnote? You'd have heard of a good hundred other dudes already then.
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Nov 2, 2015 04:43
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Corrupt Politician posted:I don't get why this still isn't in the news at all. I mean, no stories on Google News, nothing on Twitter except Webb's single tweet. Don't all the major news outfits have people monitoring this stuff? Wouldn't a new independent run merit at least a footnote? Like we were saying last week you at least have to have SOME following before you pull an independent run and are also taken seriously.
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Nov 2, 2015 05:51
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Also all he's technically done is modified his filing papers but hasn't formally announced doing so. No one noticed because no one really cares.
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Nov 2, 2015 05:57
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I started this game with twenty dollars. I had some fun for a couple weeks, but it's been distracting me at work. So, I decided, gently caress, go all in on Jim. I now have $1.66.
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Nov 2, 2015 06:01
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they still haven't closed it  this is the only mention I can find via google news: https://radio.foxnews.com/2015/10/31/jim-webb-reportedly-readying-independent-bid/ How's that feel, Jim? All you got was a fox news radio blog and even they could only be assed to hack out a few sentences about it. gently caress you. correction: A sentence Necc0 has issued a correction as of 15:56 on Nov 2, 2015 |
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Nov 2, 2015 15:46
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Necc0 posted:Also all he's technically done is modified his filing papers but hasn't formally announced doing so. No one noticed because no one really cares. This should be enough, based on the rules, correct? I found the FEC filing and it checks out (as did others). I was able to get in at 93 for something that should close in the next day or two, but there's still shares in the 95-98 range that should be a lock.
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Nov 2, 2015 16:10
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Annnnnnnnnd it's closed. I can only imagine the chaos if someone at PredictIt had caught the FEC filing as it came out and immediately closed the market while shares were still trading at 50-50.
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Nov 2, 2015 16:24
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| # ? May 14, 2024 02:20 |
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Tomato Burger posted:This should be enough, based on the rules, correct? I found the FEC filing and it checks out (as did others). I was able to get in at 93 for something that should close in the next day or two, but there's still shares in the 95-98 range that should be a lock. Oh yeah, definitely. I'm surprised they haven't closed it yet, though.
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Nov 2, 2015 16:24
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