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Well, now I'm as hosed as Kentucky if Bevin pulls this out. Prices dropped like 10 cents while I was sleeping and almost all my orders got filled. The Democrat and Then Republican win markets are still off from each other, which makes very little sense though.
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Nov 3, 2015 15:41
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Clinton posted a 62%. Might switch to buy & hold on the poll market, as dumb as that probably is.
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Nov 3, 2015 15:53
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Vox Nihili posted:Clinton posted a 62%. Might switch to buy & hold on the poll market, as dumb as that probably is. Here Lies Vox Nihili. He Bought And Held On A Poll Market.
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Nov 3, 2015 16:50
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Gyges posted:It's sort of fascinating reading how some of the people on predictit view polls. No understanding of statistics, with a side of cherry picking and unskewing. Margins of error mean anything could happen, and there's definitely a silent majority just lurking around the corner of the voting booth. The good news is that you don't need to know any of this nerd poo poo to win money edit: lol wiped out my whole banked CNBC profit with $90 of shares on Fiorina yes on winning debate and no on losing, gently caress it I'm holding onto them.
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Nov 3, 2015 16:58
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Tomato Burger posted:Here Lies Vox Nihili. He Bought And Held On A Poll Market. I held on a bunch of the 94+ polls at the end of October--worked then, so surely nothing will go wrong here.
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Nov 3, 2015 17:06
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EngineerSean posted:The good news is that you don't need to know any of this nerd poo poo to win money I bought into a poo poo-ton of Fiorina YES above 6% at .12. I think that's a good short-term play for my first polling market bet what have y'all done to me
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Nov 3, 2015 18:30
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stop playing polling markets guys! LAGOV.REP YES is down to a quarter which seems awful low, though apparently Vitter's D opponent is essentially a Republican in all the ways that matter (god and guns) so maybe that's not a great bet.
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Nov 3, 2015 18:43
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Yeah I went in way too deep on Vitter winning because Louisiana, but these polls are apparently calling me an idiot. That plus my Sanders below 25 bet may be my two worst bets so far on PredictIt, though I'm sure there will be enough wobble in the latter over 30 days as long as Hillary doesn't gently caress up.
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Nov 3, 2015 18:49
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Desperately want to get in on the Louisiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia gubernatorial markets but can't get a real grip on what's going to play out there because they're all weird places where Dems might actually have a chance. I'll just watch the returns come in tonight and hopefully score some solid shares in the 90s. 
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Nov 3, 2015 18:50
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As a former Vandalian, I can tell you that West Virginians will vote for democratic governors when the republican governors have hosed poo poo up hardcore. Unfortunately, with all the jobs having left the state, all of the smart people like me have left and the state is full of dumbfuck plum idiots who embrace being rednecks, and they can't tell if poo poo's all hosed or not, so there's no real way to tell. I wrote off my home state a long time ago.
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Nov 3, 2015 18:53
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I just realized I'm losing a ton on my CNBCDEBATE.WINNER rubio shares becuase they tanked and everybody thinks Carson is going to win. That's such bullshit, the man didn't sound awake the whole time and said nothing substantial other than distancing himself from a quack pills company. Rubio actually wrecked Jeb! and probably got the billionaire donor afterwards due to a strong performance.
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Nov 3, 2015 18:58
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Logikv9 posted:I just realized I'm losing a ton on my CNBCDEBATE.WINNER rubio shares becuase they tanked and everybody thinks Carson is going to win. That's such bullshit, the man didn't sound awake the whole time and said nothing substantial other than distancing himself from a quack pills company. Rubio actually wrecked Jeb! and probably got the billionaire donor afterwards due to a strong performance. Did you read the rules?
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Nov 3, 2015 19:00
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Milk Malk posted:Did you read the rules? I did, and I swear Carson kept his tie/not-tie with Trump at the mid-20% while Rubio jumped up. Granted I wasn't following the poll they base their decision from, but I thought it would be a general improvement 
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Nov 3, 2015 19:08
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Logikv9 posted:I just realized I'm losing a ton on my CNBCDEBATE.WINNER rubio shares becuase they tanked and everybody thinks Carson is going to win. That's such bullshit, the man didn't sound awake the whole time and said nothing substantial other than distancing himself from a quack pills company. Rubio actually wrecked Jeb! and probably got the billionaire donor afterwards due to a strong performance. STOP BETTING ON POLLS FFS
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Nov 3, 2015 19:08
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That's where the volume's at though!
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Nov 3, 2015 19:11
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Logikv9 posted:I just realized I'm losing a ton on my CNBCDEBATE.WINNER rubio shares becuase they tanked and everybody thinks Carson is going to win. That's such bullshit, the man didn't sound awake the whole time and said nothing substantial other than distancing himself from a quack pills company. Rubio actually wrecked Jeb! and probably got the billionaire donor afterwards due to a strong performance. Not to late to get on the Carson train and cover your rear end. As long as no more than 2 polls appear in the next two days, the math says he will win. And if a bunch of polls appear he'll still probably win.
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Nov 3, 2015 19:18
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Necc0 posted:STOP BETTING ON POLLS FFS Also this, it goes 100x for those stupid debate win/lose markets. Recall the Great Chafing and bet elsewhere. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 19:53 on Nov 3, 2015 |
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Nov 3, 2015 19:20
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Vox Nihili posted:Also this, it goes 100x for those stupid debate win/lose markets. Recall the Great Chafing and get elsewhere. I skipped the first three debate markets. Who won and lost? platzapS has issued a correction as of 19:38 on Nov 3, 2015 |
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Nov 3, 2015 19:35
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Put this in the OP:
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Nov 3, 2015 19:49
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platzapS posted:I skipped the first three debate markets. Who won and lost? Various people, but Chafee managed to end up as the biggest loser in the Dem debate despite coming into the debate at least than a 1% average.
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Nov 3, 2015 19:52
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I like the polls 
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Nov 3, 2015 19:58
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EngineerSean posted:I like the polls Yeah I've made money on them overall but that's only with daytrading and not actually trying to get it correct since they are essentially random, they are a bad place to start. In other news LAGOV.REP is down to 20c which seems stupidly low. That poll putting Edwards 20 points ahead is pretty damning, but I'm just so jaded and cynical I assume the republican will always steal the election. Stereotype has issued a correction as of 20:04 on Nov 3, 2015 |
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Nov 3, 2015 20:00
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Elizabeth Warren as Vice President is currently sitting at 84¢ for NO which seems absurdly low to me considering the odds of an all-female ticket are remote plus Warren's ability to enact financial reform in the Senate. I know it'd be a relatively long-term investment, but is it worth it to jump in now or will the price of NO drop as discussions for who will be Hillary's running mate heat up?
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Nov 3, 2015 21:07
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I agree 100% that Warren's going to stay put in her powerful job rather than end up hidden away in the Naval Observatory. My instinct is that people are going to catch on pretty fast that Warren's not at all interested. Enough people know that the VP slot isn't exactly a hot pick for someone like Warren, and that Hillary's going to want to diversify her ticket. Still, if you get lucky someone dumb over at WashPo will blog about how Warren could revolutionize the VP slot and really turn it into a position of power blah blah blah, and all traders need is a single media story to buy in, so who knows.
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Nov 3, 2015 21:41
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So apparently I own about 12% of all the shares in the Kentucky market. I don't think I'll be able to sell off if it looks like Bevin is going to pull it out.
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Nov 3, 2015 22:24
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So did Carson officially win the post debate or is it predictit being its normal self?
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Nov 3, 2015 22:34
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The debate polls markets close at the end of tomorrow, no?
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Nov 3, 2015 23:25
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Combed Thunderclap posted:The debate polls markets close at the end of tomorrow, no? Yep. I feel real dumb though, because the price of Carson not winning cratered to a point where it looked like it was a done deal and I cashed out at a loss on that part. Gyges has issued a correction as of 23:47 on Nov 3, 2015 |
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Nov 3, 2015 23:42
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Bought some No on a Republican win in Louisiana. Don't fail me now, polls!
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Nov 3, 2015 23:51
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Gyges posted:I feel real dumb though, because the price of Carson not winning cratered to a point where it looked like it was a done deal and I cashed out at a loss on that part. I've done that before too.  One of the fun things about PredictIt is all the weird elections I'm getting exposed to. Considering buying YES shares in San Francisco's third district market just because it's such an interesting little race with nice returns and Christiansen's opponent seems like a total scumbag. Anyone have any insights?
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Nov 3, 2015 23:58
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Jesus the Kentucky market swung hard.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:20
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loving Kentucky. Lost all my gains post Biden, have fun watching your state burn down, guys.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:26
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Oh dear, are people switching all their bets based on the early results coming in? They know eastern Kentucky comes first right?
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Nov 4, 2015 01:27
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pathetic little tramp posted:Oh dear, are people switching all their bets based on the early results coming in? They know eastern Kentucky comes first right? It's still going to be very tough for Conway to pull this out with his margins in the "godless" metropolitan areas.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:29
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Yeah looking at it, it looks like he's only up about 10,000 in Louisville. Well, it looks like I might not actually be relocating to Louisville next year then. Bevin will loving destroy that state hardcore.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:31
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Gyges posted:loving Kentucky. Lost all my gains post Biden, have fun watching your state burn down, guys. 
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Nov 4, 2015 01:35
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Yikes, is it really over already?  Hope Conway will pull through for the sake of Kentucky's health care system if nothing else.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:36
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Combed Thunderclap posted:Yikes, is it really over already? Nah, only half the vote is in and the republican guy is up by 4.4%. I'm gonna hang in until the end.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:37
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Really wish I'd gone with my gut and cashed out before the voting actually began. I sold about 60% of my shares at 10cents profit prior to the voting and then thought I'd just wait. Oh well, just bought back in at 200 shares for $6 on the off chance Conway actually pulls this poo poo off.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:44
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Nope, it's over. Getting called by a few outfits now. This is a really dark day for such a nice state.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:45
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