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Are they not doing markets for Tuesday's debate? Those are usually pretty good for making some money.
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Nov 8, 2015 20:04
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| # ? May 13, 2024 23:18 |
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I finally bought back in after going bust a few days ago, and I'm already down $2.70. hooray
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Nov 8, 2015 22:32
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I'm surprised Carson 22% is only 50/50.
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Nov 9, 2015 02:49
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fronz posted:I'm surprised Carson 22% is only 50/50. How are you playing this? It looks like a complete coin flip to me. In the last 10 polls over the last month he has been below 22 exactly once. He has been a conservative icon for years and has way more staying power than any of the 2012 Romney alternatives. There has been some negative stories over that last month that are quite significant and I could see him being knocked down a few points. I don't see how the pyramid thing is any dumber than anything else he said. I was buying NO when it was in the 30's, but I have no idea how to play this when its 50/50 Wanamingo posted:I finally bought back in after going bust a few days ago, and I'm already down $2.70. What exactly did you do the first time? Not to pick, but we all learn from what strategies work and don't work. What are some of your big bets now?
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Nov 9, 2015 03:10
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Zeta Taskforce posted:How are you playing this? It looks like a complete coin flip to me. In the last 10 polls over the last month he has been below 22 exactly once. He has been a conservative icon for years and has way more staying power than any of the 2012 Romney alternatives. There has been some negative stories over that last month that are quite significant and I could see him being knocked down a few points. I don't see how the pyramid thing is any dumber than anything else he said. I was buying NO when it was in the 30's, but I have no idea how to play this when its 50/50 Now that he's a frontrunner, and given that he says a lot of stupid poo poo, people are going to keep talking about the stupid poo poo he says constantly (it fills the airwaves...) until he's been Jebbed. Most of his support seems to be pretty soft. I wouldn't be surprised if he lost a few points in the next polls that come out, and would be surprised if he didn't lose more than that over a full month of this. Certainly I wouldn't put it at 100% odds, but I dunno, 70-80? E: People are also going to pay more attention to him on Tues, and he does not do very well in debates
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Nov 9, 2015 03:23
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fronz posted:Now that he's a frontrunner, and given that he says a lot of stupid poo poo, people are going to keep talking about the stupid poo poo he says constantly (it fills the airwaves...) until he's been Jeb!bed. Most of his support seems to be pretty soft. I wouldn't be surprised if he lost a few points in the next polls that come out, and would be surprised if he didn't lose more than that over a full month of this. Certainly I wouldn't put it at 100% odds, but I dunno, 70-80?
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Nov 9, 2015 03:25
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fronz posted:Now that he's a frontrunner, and given that he says a lot of stupid poo poo, people are going to keep talking about the stupid poo poo he says constantly (it fills the airwaves...) until he's been Jebbed. Most of his support seems to be pretty soft. I wouldn't be surprised if he lost a few points in the next polls that come out, and would be surprised if he didn't lose more than that over a full month of this. Certainly I wouldn't put it at 100% odds, but I dunno, 70-80? The stream of stupid poo poo has been pretty constant, its gotten him to frontrunner status, and most of his supporters are heavy listeners of talk radio. Until right wing radio turns against him it could go either way
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Nov 9, 2015 03:40
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I'm $20 in, I could see this being addictive as hell. Here's hoping I make some money on this.
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Nov 9, 2015 05:04
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Samfucius posted:I'm $20 in, I could see this being addictive as hell. Here's hoping I make some money on this.  coordinate with us; the conventional wisdom itt has been right more often than not
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Nov 9, 2015 06:48
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What exactly did you do the first time? Not to pick, but we all learn from what strategies work and don't work. What are some of your big bets now? I withdrew a bunch and stuck what was left on the Kentucky governer race, since it seemed pretty safe. No real lesson to be learned here apart from not sticking all your eggs in one basket, which I assume most of you should already know. I don't have any big bets going right now, I just loaded in another $50 and spread it over a few markets.
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Nov 9, 2015 06:49
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The stream of stupid poo poo has been pretty constant, its gotten him to frontrunner status, and most of his supporters are heavy listeners of talk radio. Until right wing radio turns against him it could go either way You're not entirely wrong, but enough people will probably doubt his electability and flock back to Trump or to Rubio over the next few weeks. He's the flavor of the month and his peak has passed. Even if he keeps most of his support, going below 22 seems much more likely than staying where he is or getting better.
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Nov 9, 2015 06:52
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The stream of stupid poo poo has been pretty constant, its gotten him to frontrunner status, and most of his supporters are heavy listeners of talk radio. Until right wing radio turns against him it could go either way YOLO I'm all in
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Nov 9, 2015 06:54
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I made some money on Carson when the market overreacted to the POLITICO story -- got in on the bottom, sold each share for about a 6-8c profit when it slightly rebounded. THat's the ticket; have Twitter updates to let you know about a big possible story outbreak, then hop on and enjoy the ride as PredictIt overreacts
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Nov 9, 2015 14:56
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fronz posted:he's been Jebbed. On a related note, Jeb > 7% seems oddly priced, unless a lot of people think he will hoover up a Carson decline... the RCP average has him at 5.5% and falling. I'm in at 0.71 and ready to be Jebbed if it comes down to it.
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Nov 9, 2015 16:47
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Tomato Burger posted:On a related note, Jeb > 7% seems oddly priced, unless a lot of people think he will hoover up a Carson decline... the RCP average has him at 5.5% and falling. I'm wondering Jeb has a floor of minimum support not much lower than he already is. Unlike the other establishment candidates he has a nationally known family name that's still fairly popular in the GOP.
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Nov 9, 2015 16:57
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Corrupt Politician posted:I'm wondering Jeb has a floor of minimum support not much lower than he already is. Unlike the other establishment candidates he has a nationally known family name that's still fairly popular in the GOP. Yeah, I don't think he'll bottom out much lower than maybe 4%, just based on name recognition alone. However, 7% seems like a long shot to me as he's becoming increasingly irrelevant.
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Nov 9, 2015 17:02
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*Licks lips* I could really go for a poll about now.
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Nov 9, 2015 17:04
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That was weird. I went from plus $8 to minus $35 and tried to figure out what happened. There was a flash Rubio crash to 5 cents. Then a minute later he recovered, back up to 80. I can't figure out what happened, unless someone decided to sell $850 and didn't care about price.
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Nov 9, 2015 18:02
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Zeta Taskforce posted:That was weird. I went from plus $8 to minus $35 and tried to figure out what happened. There was a flash Rubio crash to 5 cents. Then a minute later he recovered, back up to 80. I can't figure out what happened, unless someone decided to sell $850 and didn't care about price. More likely that someone made a huge buy, which happens on occasion.
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Nov 9, 2015 18:13
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Yeah something similar seems to have happened with the Graham market today, shot up 9 cents for no real reason, wish I hadn't put my sell orders at 21. I could have made 6 cents more a share.
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Nov 9, 2015 20:29
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah something similar seems to have happened with the Graham market today, shot up 9 cents for no real reason, wish I hadn't put my sell orders at 21. I could have made 6 cents more a share. I learned that lesson when trying to get cute in the Biden market. Had way too many piddly sell orders staggered in. Ended up selling 200 shares at 30-36 cents each, netting $5, rather than riding the wave up to $0.95 and netting $120. Now I keep my sells as actively managed as I can, rather than being a circuit breaker in a panic scenario. Your results may vary.
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Nov 9, 2015 20:36
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Aww hell yeah they just got linked markets for debate polls.
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Nov 9, 2015 23:32
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platzapS posted:Aww hell yeah they just got linked markets for debate polls. Beware, there are new rules for the debate bump markets!
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Nov 9, 2015 23:49
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Vox Nihili posted:Beware, there are new rules for the debate bump markets!
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Nov 10, 2015 01:35
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Vox Nihili posted:More likely that someone made a huge buy, which happens on occasion. I hear that. Lots of stagnant markets right now. Looking forward to some wild swings.
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Nov 10, 2015 01:40
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To be frank I think we're gonna be chasing the BIDENRUN-Dragon for a while.
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Nov 10, 2015 01:43
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Necc0 posted:To be frank I think we're gonna be chasing the BIDENRUN-Dragon for a while. This is way too correct.
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Nov 10, 2015 02:04
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Necc0 posted:To be frank I think we're gonna be chasing the BIDENRUN-Dragon for a while. I NEED MY FIX. But seriously someone lemme know asap if a market that awesome emerges again.
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Nov 10, 2015 02:08
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Vox Nihili posted:Beware, there are new rules for the debate bump markets! Really, the change shouldn't make much of a difference unless you're buying to hold, which is rarely a good idea. Buying to flip just gives you more time to play around.
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Nov 10, 2015 03:05
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Gyges posted:Really, the change shouldn't make much of a difference unless you're buying to hold, which is rarely a good idea. Buying to flip just gives you more time to play around. Talk time and viewer count might be worth holding here. Any thoughts?
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Nov 10, 2015 03:10
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Ha, someone was kind enough to fill my 100 shares @ 1c buy for Rand getting most debate time. Let's go penny stocks!
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Nov 10, 2015 03:14
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Vox Nihili posted:Talk time and viewer count might be worth holding here. Talk time, sure. I stay all the way away from the viewer number though, that's just pure guessing. I'm loving these linked markets though. Especially if you go an make sure your biggest risk is on a sure thing like Rand Paul not getting the most talk time or having the biggest bump. Gyges has issued a correction as of 03:54 on Nov 10, 2015 |
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Nov 10, 2015 03:38
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Actually looking at the risk calculations, I'm probably going to hold most of my shares till the market ends. As long as I keep Paul Speak and Decline No the highest risk while also keeping Paul or Jeb Bump No the highest risk I'm super good.
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Nov 10, 2015 07:45
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Necc0 posted:To be frank I think we're gonna be chasing the BIDENRUN-Dragon for a while. Hey, the debt ceiling market was sweet. Cashed in on plenty of people thinking every Republican would totally stab their bankrollers in the back for brownie points with the crazies.
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Nov 10, 2015 14:54
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I should have bought into that market, too  I don't remember why I didn't, either.
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Nov 10, 2015 15:02
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Am I missing something on Jeb! having the best polling post debate? No is only in the 70/80s.
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Nov 10, 2015 16:22
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He has nowhere to go but up and he still has a chance to turn it around I guess (he won't).
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Nov 10, 2015 16:30
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Betting no on Jeb is always a good bet IMHO. The man is beige in human form.
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Nov 10, 2015 16:48
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Gyges posted:Am I missing something on Jeb! having the best polling post debate? No is only in the 70/80s. His current RCP average might be below his actual average by a couple points. That's about it.
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Nov 10, 2015 16:56
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| # ? May 13, 2024 23:18 |
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I'm convinced tonight's debate is more likely than not to beat 15m viewers. The last one on CNBC hit 14m while competing against the World Series. Fox is pushing this one hard and there isn't any sort of equivalent competition tonight. There has also been a lot of Carson controversy stirring the pot, a new number of candidates/format, etc. I think these factors will outweigh the somewhat smaller size of the network, its relative proximity to the last debate, and a general downward trend in interest from the initial novelty. And now I've put money on it.
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Nov 10, 2015 17:10
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