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Vox Nihili posted:I'm convinced tonight's debate is more likely than not to beat 15m viewers. The last one on CNBC hit 14m while competing against the World Series. Fox is pushing this one hard and there isn't any sort of equivalent competition tonight. There has also been a lot of Carson controversy stirring the pot, a new number of candidates/format, etc. Keep in mind this one is also on later than the others at 9 PM EST. I don't know how TV prime-time works so this may influence it up or down. Just something to keep in mind.
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Nov 10, 2015 17:50
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Necc0 posted:Keep in mind this one is also on later than the others at 9 PM EST. I don't know how TV prime-time works so this may influence it up or down. Just something to keep in mind. The most watched hour of TV varies between 8-9 and 9-10 from day to day and year to year. In the long run, they do about the same.
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Nov 10, 2015 17:56
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Plus I'm going to have the debate open in 6 different browsers, woooooo 15mil here I come! Edit: Okay, for anyone still trying to figure out how linked markets work, here you go, the Graham market isn't linked, the FBC debate market is:  pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 18:17 on Nov 10, 2015 |
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Nov 10, 2015 18:12
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Necc0 posted:Keep in mind this one is also on later than the others at 9 PM EST. I don't know how TV prime-time works so this may influence it up or down. Just something to keep in mind. Needs to be that late to capture the west coast market, too.
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Nov 10, 2015 19:00
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So much for my debate market gamble. Turns out people were willing to buy all my Yes 15m+ shares at 57c, and I was happy to oblige. Made about $50.
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Nov 10, 2015 19:08
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I'm telling ya, we have to start making some disqus accounts, people do honestly buy and sell based on what gets said in those comments sections. I still want to try my plan of making 10 or so sockpuppet accounts, have each of them predict something different until one of them has a 6-market winning streak, and then clean up on the 7th market.
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Nov 10, 2015 19:15
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A dedicated Goon Cartel could get pretty far in the smaller markets both in terms of controlling discussion and moving the market along.
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Nov 10, 2015 19:32
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Necc0 posted:I should have bought into that market, too They were originally supposed to vote for it on the third (I think?) but delayed it until the fifth. There was a bunch of worry that they might do the same thing again. Vox Nihili posted:I'm convinced tonight's debate is more likely than not to beat 15m viewers. The last one on CNBC hit 14m while competing against the World Series. Fox is pushing this one hard and there isn't any sort of equivalent competition tonight. There has also been a lot of Carson controversy stirring the pot, a new number of candidates/format, etc. Remember, the debate isn't on the Fox News Channel, it's on the Fox Business Network. There could be less viewers just because people don't know that FBN is a channel.
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Nov 10, 2015 19:40
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Which one of you is Conservatives R Scum
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Nov 10, 2015 19:46
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Wanamingo posted:Remember, the debate isn't on the Fox News Channel, it's on the Fox Business Network. There could be less viewers just because people don't know that FBN is a channel. I don't have any shares in this anymore (it was around 35c to buy in at the time), but Fox is pushing the debate hard on all its platforms and is streaming it for free online (apparently those views get built into the ratings, too, at least since 2013).
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Nov 10, 2015 20:18
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This is for a channel that regularly dips below 10,000 viewers nationally. I'd like to see a line graph of their ad revenue.
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Nov 10, 2015 20:24
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Aliquid posted:Which one of you is Conservatives R Scum Not me, but that makes me think - there's a definite market in going into the comments section as wildly partisan and forcing people to spite-buy in the opposite direction.
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Nov 10, 2015 20:32
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pathetic little tramp posted:Not me, but that makes me think - there's a definite market in going into the comments section as wildly partisan and forcing people to spite-buy in the opposite direction. I'll admit to occasionally getting drunk or high and trolling the comments every now and then. Fortunately I've always had to presence of mind to not actually buy or sell while doing that.
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Nov 10, 2015 20:36
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LA Gov news - I don't know much about the "Vitter's P-I" story. Apparently he had hired a P-I to record a conversation between sheriff and others regarding the prostitute, and the tape they confiscated may have had some damning evidence? https://twitter.com/elizabethcrisp/status/664196484728905728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw "Elizabeth Crisp" posted:Normand said recording shows PI pressuring the potential witness to say Wendy was paid for statements made to Jason Berry. #lagov
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Nov 10, 2015 23:11
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There's a brand new fun market on whether they ask about the Starbucks cup at the debate. I put in a bid for 10 shares at 40 cents, though the cheapest seems to be 55.
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Nov 10, 2015 23:24
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To be very specific, all that need occur is for a moderator to say the word "Starbucks". (EDIT: During the debate.) Maybe we'll find out if any of the candidates play PredictIt. 
Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 00:27 on Nov 11, 2015 |
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Nov 11, 2015 00:21
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Yeah, those are kind of weird rules. Will the Moderator ask about Starbucks Christmas cups? Mentioning Starbucks in any context counts as doing so. Please dear god have an out of left field question about Battlestar Galactica and have the moderator ask about multiple Starbucks just to read the comments on the market.
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Nov 11, 2015 00:35
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Bought a significant quantity of No on Starbucks. I think people are overestimating the likelihood of a random non-event making it in, especially when the network is really, really trying to portray itself as serious.
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Nov 11, 2015 00:43
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"Candidates: who is your favorite Battlestar Galactica character and why? I'll repeat your answers each time for the benefit of the audience."  (And we get to see who's a nerrrrrd)
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Nov 11, 2015 00:45
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Just bought two on yes because I couldn't find anything else to waste that $.84 on. LET'S DO THIS
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Nov 11, 2015 00:45
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Ugh this is the first market since Biden that has truly tempted me to rebuy. I don't think I'm going to, but drat I wish they'd put more wacky questions like this up.
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Nov 11, 2015 00:50
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Looking at the rules, I can't quite make it out. We've got:quote:During the first-tier presidential debate conducted by Fox Business Network ("FBN") on November 10, 2015, a moderator will pose a question to one or more candidates related to the recent controversy over Starbucks holiday cup design, specifically using the word "Starbucks." Okay, we're looking for the moderators to ask whether this is the war on Christmas or not. quote:Any mention of the word "Starbucks" by a moderator during the debate will cause this market to resolve as Yes. Wait, any mention of the word Starbucks? So if they say "Carly you ran HP into the ground worse than Starbucks" it resolves yes? edit: Wow I totally missed the conversation a few posts up, sorry. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 00:55 on Nov 11, 2015 |
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Nov 11, 2015 00:51
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pathetic little tramp posted:Looking at the rules, I can't quite make it out. We've got: At the very least if anything remotely sounding like "starbucks" is uttered, we will get to enjoy much gnashing of teeth in the comments.
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Nov 11, 2015 00:53
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pathetic little tramp posted:Wait, any mention of the word Starbucks? So if they say "Carly you ran HP into the ground worse than Starbucks" it resolves yes? The way the rules are currently written? Yes.
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Nov 11, 2015 00:55
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Vox Nihili posted:Bought a significant quantity of No on Starbucks. I think people are overestimating the likelihood of a random non-event making it in, especially when the network is really, really trying to portray itself as serious. On the one hand, the rogue blimp came up last time. On the other hand, it was a candidate that brought it up, and also that debate was a dumpster fire the sort of which Fox will likely want to avoid.
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Nov 11, 2015 00:57
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Platystemon posted:On the one hand, the rogue blimp came up last time. The things that keep making these debates dumpster fires just keep showing up no matter which network the debate is on or who moderates. CNBC's only crime was failing to keep half a score of psychopaths in check.
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Nov 11, 2015 01:00
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My thinking is that it could be pretty easily used to drive a wedge between Carson and the other candidates. Of course I'm only $.84 confident in this theory
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Nov 11, 2015 01:00
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Well I guess it's time to max-buy some 96 cent shares on Kasich not having the most talking time for a quick 4 cent a share boost.
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Nov 11, 2015 01:02
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pathetic little tramp posted:Well I guess it's time to max-buy some 96 cent shares on Kasich not having the most talking time for a quick 4 cent a share boost. Yeah, there are so many candidates on the stage that that’s not all that much below the mean, and I think Kasich is way below the mean in the factors that would lead to more speaking time. Fiorina somehow eked out the most time in the last debate, though, which I didn’t expect—and not for the reasons I would have expected, either. She mostly just rambled and the moderators let her. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 01:18 on Nov 11, 2015 |
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Nov 11, 2015 01:15
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So, I'm down to 12 cents available and am currently unable to sell my Carson Debate Talk shares because doing so would increase my risk beyond what my 12 cents can cover. So please don't talk much Doc. I'm guessing it's going to be Trump, Fiorina or Rubio who actually talks the most.
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Nov 11, 2015 01:43
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I really want to dump all my shares and put the money into buying yes on the Starbucks question, but I'm not going to because I know it's a dumb idea. Posting this so I can publicly kick myself later for not taking the opportunity when I could.
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Nov 11, 2015 02:36
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Wanamingo posted:I really want to dump all my shares and put the money into buying yes on the Starbucks question, but I'm not going to because I know it's a dumb idea. Same. I at least have 15 shares so I can feel a small amount of vindication. Though the fact I bought any probably means it will resolve to NO.
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Nov 11, 2015 02:42
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Tangential but related: do we think there's any chance my BIDENRUN NOs will get sold at 0.99 before the end of the year? I refuse to accept less but this lack of liquidity is getting really old.
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Nov 11, 2015 02:44
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On the one hand they're saying this is gonna be Tough Questions About the Economy™ on the other hand it's Fox and one of the moderators is Neil Cavuto. I really like this market
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Nov 11, 2015 02:48
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Ooh yeah, with the Neil Cavuto wildcard, you've got a definite war on Christmas angle coming up. Maybe I should buy in for some more at 35...
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Nov 11, 2015 02:49
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It would be a real missed opportunity not to bring it up. Not only is it a softball for Trump and others but an actual question with regards to Carson's opinions on Christmas. Yes I just said Christmas is a legitimate debate topic in the 2016 GOP primary.
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Nov 11, 2015 02:53
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Ah poo poo I forgot to cancel my sell order and sold my Starbucks question shares at 45 a piece! Now I don't have any skin in the game other than "Kasich will be ignored"
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Nov 11, 2015 03:01
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I somehow missed the fact that there was a Starbux controversy until I got the email. Weirdly enough I was showing the site to a friend and he explained it (sort of) to me. I promptly bought 10 at 34. Edit: What happened? The starbux market is closed? Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 03:07 on Nov 11, 2015 |
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Nov 11, 2015 03:03
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329 No on Starbucks here thanks to that last-minute surge. Sold about as many as I'm holding.
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Nov 11, 2015 03:07
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I somehow missed the fact that there was a Starbux controversy until I got the email. Weirdly enough I was showing the site to a friend and he explained it (sort of) to me. Debate started, they close the related markets.
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Nov 11, 2015 03:07
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