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Squizzle
Apr 24, 2008





Poor Jeb!, his poll numbers even look confused. There are four obvious clusters: the statistical noise candidates (Graham, Pataki, Jindal, Santorum); the B-listers (Christie, Huckabee, Fiorina, Kasich, Paul); the hypothetically electable guys (Cruz, Rubs): and the fires in a crowded theater (Friend Ben, Trump).

But then there's this green tortoise-line, joyfully wandering between the groups, wondering where everyone went.

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William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"
Paris attacks update:

In the aftermath of the attacks in Paris on Friday and the possibility that some of the perpetrators were refugees from the Middle East, Ben Carson and Bobby Jindal and called for a halt in accepting refugees to the United States. Huckabee already called for this weeks ago. Now Jeb is weighing in:

quote:

Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush says that any U.S. assistance to Middle Eastern refugees should focus primarily on Christians fleeing persecution.

"We should focus our efforts as it relates to refugees on the Christians that are being slaughtered," he told CNN's "State of the Union" in an interview on Sunday morning.

Bush conceded that screening refugees to determine whether they are Christian presents a "national security challenge" to the United States and European countries, but he added that "we do that a lot" already as the country screens potential refugees for relocation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/11/15/jeb-bush-u-s-assistance-for-refugees-should-focus-on-christians/

The United States does not yet possess Christianity Detection Machines. :(

I honestly don't know which is worse: denying all refugees, or only letting in the Christian ones. I want to see Carson, Jindal, and Huckabee's reactions to Jeb's plan. A competent journalist should ask Jeb if his love for protecting religious minorities in the region includes Yazidis and Kakais. And Shia Muslims.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

William Bear posted:

Paris attacks update:

In the aftermath of the attacks in Paris on Friday and the possibility that some of the perpetrators were refugees from the Middle East, Ben Carson and Bobby Jindal and called for a halt in accepting refugees to the United States. Huckabee already called for this weeks ago. Now Jeb is weighing in:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/11/15/jeb-bush-u-s-assistance-for-refugees-should-focus-on-christians/

The United States does not yet possess Christianity Detection Machines. :(

I honestly don't know which is worse: denying all refugees, or only letting in the Christian ones. I want to see Carson, Jindal, and Huckabee's reactions to Jeb's plan. A competent journalist should ask Jeb if his love for protecting religious minorities in the region includes Yazidis and Kakais. And Shia Muslims.

Jesus.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

the next time we as nation spend five minutes asking 'why do they hate us?' i bet this doesnt even come up

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003


exactly. it should be as difficult for an unbeliever to enter the united states as it is for a camel to walk through the eye of a needle. i think jesus said that. it's what he meant, anyway. we all know that

TheScott2K
Oct 26, 2003

I'm just saying, there's a nonzero chance Trump has a really toad penis.

William Bear posted:

Paris attacks update:

In the aftermath of the attacks in Paris on Friday and the possibility that some of the perpetrators were refugees from the Middle East, Ben Carson and Bobby Jindal and called for a halt in accepting refugees to the United States. Huckabee already called for this weeks ago. Now Jeb is weighing in:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/11/15/jeb-bush-u-s-assistance-for-refugees-should-focus-on-christians/

The United States does not yet possess Christianity Detection Machines. :(

I honestly don't know which is worse: denying all refugees, or only letting in the Christian ones. I want to see Carson, Jindal, and Huckabee's reactions to Jeb's plan. A competent journalist should ask Jeb if his love for protecting religious minorities in the region includes Yazidis and Kakais. And Shia Muslims.

I'm glad he says things like that to keep the empathy that his conspicuous sadness brings out at bay.

Golden Bee
Dec 24, 2009

I came here to chew bubblegum and quote 'They Live', and I'm... at an impasse.

Neodymium posted:


As for the candidates, the only terrible response I'm aware of was from Jeb!, who came out and said that the attack happened because Obama pulled out of Iraq while the attack was still going on..
To be fair, he personally called Hollande to tell him stuff happens.

SirKibbles
Feb 27, 2011

I didn't like your old red text so here's some dancing cash. :10bux:

TheScott2K posted:

I'm glad he says things like that to keep the empathy that his conspicuous sadness brings out at bay.

It's like everytime I start to feel bad for the guy he does this poo poo like this and it's like nope gently caress that family again.

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc
Hey Boosted, how come you don't have a Trump Gangtag?

Top Bunk Wanker
Jan 31, 2005

Top Trump Anger

whydirt posted:

I thought a lot of that was due to Obama's team buying chunks of airtime way in advance to lock in cheaper rates, while Team Romney waited to the last minute.

As I understand it, the Romney ad buyers intentionally waited to buy ads because they would personally make more money off of commissions that way.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

oystertoadfish posted:

the next time we as nation spend five minutes asking 'why do they hate us?' i bet this doesnt even come up

They hate us for our freedoms and our judeo-christian values

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

My Imaginary GF posted:

They hate us for our freedoms and our judeo-christian values

o

Evil Fluffy
Jul 13, 2009

Scholars are some of the most pompous and pedantic people I've ever had the joy of meeting.

Sir Tonk posted:

Hey Boosted, how come you don't have a Trump Gangtag?

He's probably afraid his (old, white) neighbors will see it.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Top Bunk Wanker posted:

As I understand it, the Romney ad buyers intentionally waited to buy ads because they would personally make more money off of commissions that way.

I thought campaigns got cheaper rates than pacs and much more of the Romney money was third-party.

Although knowing GOP campaigns self-dealing probably also played a role.

Nintendo Kid
Aug 4, 2011

by Smythe

Shear Modulus posted:

I thought campaigns got cheaper rates than pacs and much more of the Romney money was third-party.

Although knowing GOP campaigns self-dealing probably also played a role.

They do get cheaper rates. However, the third party pacs/super pacs can still get cheaper rates by buying ad slots earlier before they air. They deliberately avoided doing that, and as such paid a lot more, which meant higher kickbacks for many of their people.

Just like if you wait to buy a plane ticket until two days before you leave you'll pay a lot more than if you comfortably booked things a month plus in advance.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Nintendo Kid posted:

They do get cheaper rates. However, the third party pacs/super pacs can still get cheaper rates by buying ad slots earlier before they air. They deliberately avoided doing that, and as such paid a lot more, which meant higher kickbacks for many of their people.

Just like if you wait to buy a plane ticket until two days before you leave you'll pay a lot more than if you comfortably booked things a month plus in advance.

Unless your friend owns the station or airline, in which case you get a lower rate.

Triglav
Jun 2, 2007

IT IS HARAAM TO SEND SMILEY FACES THROUGH THE INTERNET
Unless your friend doesn't own the station or airline, in which case you get the higher rate.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
So when are people going to start asking Ben Carson where his campaign is spending all that money?

It seems his entire machine is built on raising more and more funds without putting anything into ground game or air game.

AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006

I don't want to wander into the Dem thread - anything of note from last night's debate?

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Montasque posted:

So when are people going to start asking Ben Carson where his campaign is spending all that money?

It seems his entire machine is built on raising more and more funds without putting anything into ground game or air game.

I think Erickson or someone else on his site has complained about it recently. All I can find right now is this Atlantic article though: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/where-is-ben-carsons-money-going/410839/

Triglav
Jun 2, 2007

IT IS HARAAM TO SEND SMILEY FACES THROUGH THE INTERNET

Montasque posted:

So when are people going to start asking Ben Carson where his campaign is spending all that money?

It seems his entire machine is built on raising more and more funds without putting anything into ground game or air game.

Does he need to spend much right now when he's neck and neck for first, with the evangelical vote in support?

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

I don't want to wander into the Dem thread - anything of note from last night's debate?

Sanders didn't want to talk about foreign policy. Clinton got flustered about Sanders calling her out on Wall Street donations. O'Malley reminded everyone he did the things the others talk about doing.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

I don't want to wander into the Dem thread - anything of note from last night's debate?

hillary spent most of it defending from the other two and a bizarre line about how its okay for her to take wall street donations because 9/11 happened

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

so we're thinking that after thanksgiving, in the last 8-9 weeks before iowa, the ads will start flying? i can't wait to see if that has any effect on the polls

it'd be easy to predict that all of this bullshit has just been due to the weird goobers who sit down for half an hour to respond to a robopoll on their landline only being aware of the candidates that the media hyped, and to further predict that once the Establishment starts spending money on ads that the dynamics of polling* results will revert to being driven by ad spending the way the lazy media expects them to be

but a lot of predictions that wouldve been very convenient for lazy pundits should they have come true have in fact refused to come true. are they gonna be right at some point? they don't HAVE to be wrong all the way to the finish line but they sure as hell don't have to be right

that's what i think will be interesting, to see if the data in the form of polling* actually changes when the real money starts to get spent and targeted and poo poo. and then we actually get real primary votes (and bizarre semihemidemidemocratic caucuses)! and all this bullshit we've been occupying ourselves with will fade into the background

*or should i say poolling

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Triglav posted:

Does he need to spend much right now when he's neck and neck for first, with the evangelical vote in support?

If he actually wants to be President then yes, he should start spending money in places not Iowa. I mean even Trump has a more robust ground-game, and Cruz out does both by a country mile.

Deep Hurting
Jan 19, 2006

Raskolnikov38 posted:

hillary spent most of it defending from the other two and a bizarre line about how its okay for her to take wall street donations because 9/11 happened

Luckily for her, old people generally continue to be suckers. :doh:

Nintendo Kid
Aug 4, 2011

by Smythe

oystertoadfish posted:

so we're thinking that after thanksgiving, in the last 8-9 weeks before iowa, the ads will start flying? i can't wait to see if that has any effect on the polls

it'd be easy to predict that all of this bullshit has just been due to the weird goobers who sit down for half an hour to respond to a robopoll on their landline only being aware of the candidates that the media hyped, and to further predict that once the Establishment starts spending money on ads that the dynamics of polling* results will revert to being driven by ad spending the way the lazy media expects them to be

but a lot of predictions that wouldve been very convenient for lazy pundits should they have come true have in fact refused to come true. are they gonna be right at some point? they don't HAVE to be wrong all the way to the finish line but they sure as hell don't have to be right

that's what i think will be interesting, to see if the data in the form of polling* actually changes when the real money starts to get spent and targeted and poo poo. and then we actually get real primary votes (and bizarre semihemidemidemocratic caucuses)! and all this bullshit we've been occupying ourselves with will fade into the background

*or should i say poolling

PACs and Super PACs involved with an ad blitz in time for the primaries and who wanted to not just spend their money as fast as possible, should be already buying up ad slots in the relevant states now. Don't know where you'd go to find out what's being bought by whom.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003


so this is just as much a barrel of anecdotes as the debate thread last night but it makes me feel a little more confident that my analysis of clinton having made the comment consciously and due to an accurate understanding of the temper of the electorate might not be complete horseshit

edit asterisk more like anal isis??? eh

oystertoadfish fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Nov 16, 2015

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold
someone pointed out that she's probably going to have to making a clarifying statement at some point but as twitter joementum has been arguing, its really hard to turn that soundbite into a coherent attack

Anal Papist
Jun 2, 2011

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

I don't want to wander into the Dem thread - anything of note from last night's debate?

Hillary pulled a chris christie and went off about 9/11. Trump tweeted several times without their hashtag but his tweets mysteriously appeared on their special twitter feed. The debate felt more like a 2 hour long advert for twitter the online feed was 66% twitter feeds and piecharts about twitter. The moderator was really loving good at remebering to moderate whgen an ad break came up but at times it was just as silly as the republican debate which is impressive with only 3 people on stage.

Bernie felt a bit weak and unimpressive on some points but was very forceful on pining hillary to the wall with her wall street backers. Hillary felt completely hollow and rehearesed at times but the crowd seemed happy with what she was saying. Martin O' Malley (sp?) was generally very solid and held his own for most of the debate then ruined it by plugging his website non stop and having less speaking time than Trump's tweets for the last half hour.

The only highlight worth watching would be bernie attacking hillary for being in wall streets pocket, hillary defending it by saying 9/11 then the moderators pulling a random question off twitter which was basically:

"Did someone really just justify wall street cronyism by saying 9/11?"

Triglav
Jun 2, 2007

IT IS HARAAM TO SEND SMILEY FACES THROUGH THE INTERNET
The TV broadcast only cut to Twitter stats for a minute or two after the debate. It still had those two vox pop tweets, but I guess they figured the person who would watch a debate on TV vs the person who'd watch it online are in two very different demos, and curated each experience as such.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

yeah the 150 seconds i watched on tv had no twitter at all it was just a big fullscreen of the people with their podiums (podii?)

AndNowMax
Sep 25, 2009

Fighting the fight for *mumble* *mumble*

Squizzle posted:

Poor Jeb!, his poll numbers even look confused. There are four obvious clusters: the statistical noise candidates (Graham, Pataki, Jindal, Santorum); the B-listers (Christie, Huckabee, Fiorina, Kasich, Paul); the hypothetically electable guys (Cruz, Rubs): and the fires in a crowded theater (Friend Ben, Trump).

But then there's this green tortoise-line, joyfully wandering between the groups, wondering where everyone went.

I enjoyed this post

Anal Papist
Jun 2, 2011

I don't know how you guys were possibly able to understand the complexities of the debate without all the pie charts, or scaleless line graphs thast became useless when activity spiked and drowned out all other data.


Edit: this was the debate feed online, ocassionally more graphics would appear or disappear.

Anal Papist fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Nov 16, 2015

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
I gently caress'n love Trump's anti-Carson ad

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

i forgot just how loving many republican debates there were last cycle http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/

5 in november 2011! 9 before november! 7 in january 2012!

the decision to cut it down to only 11 total apparently http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-republican-primary-debate-schedule/ will in hindsight probably look like an INCREDIBLY good decision. can you imagine what a shitshow this would be if there were a half dozen debates a month?

seriously reince hasn't done much right but people aren't realizing what a savvy move it was to decline the money (i'm guessing) and try to keep the reality of his party under wraps to the degree that he could

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

oystertoadfish posted:

so we're thinking that after thanksgiving, in the last 8-9 weeks before iowa, the ads will start flying? i can't wait to see if that has any effect on the polls

it'd be easy to predict that all of this bullshit has just been due to the weird goobers who sit down for half an hour to respond to a robopoll on their landline only being aware of the candidates that the media hyped, and to further predict that once the Establishment starts spending money on ads that the dynamics of polling* results will revert to being driven by ad spending the way the lazy media expects them to be

but a lot of predictions that wouldve been very convenient for lazy pundits should they have come true have in fact refused to come true. are they gonna be right at some point? they don't HAVE to be wrong all the way to the finish line but they sure as hell don't have to be right

that's what i think will be interesting, to see if the data in the form of polling* actually changes when the real money starts to get spent and targeted and poo poo. and then we actually get real primary votes (and bizarre semihemidemidemocratic caucuses)! and all this bullshit we've been occupying ourselves with will fade into the background

*or should i say poolling

My understanding is the GOP establishment is going to break out the big guns on Trump soon with TV ads, and that he might not be willing to spend enough of his personal money to respond in kind.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

Jewel Repetition posted:

My understanding is the GOP establishment is going to break out the big guns on Trump soon with TV ads, and that he might not be willing to spend enough of his personal money to respond in kind.

i cant wait to see the results of this plan

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Jewel Repetition posted:

My understanding is the GOP establishment is going to break out the big guns on Trump soon with TV ads, and that he might not be willing to spend enough of his personal money to respond in kind.

What are they gonna attack him on?

NewMars
Mar 10, 2013

My Imaginary GF posted:

What are they gonna attack him on?

A wing and a prayer.

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Boosted_C5
Feb 16, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 5 years!
Grimey Drawer
South Carolina cross-state trip report:

Went to visit my folks with my son. 2.5 hour drive across state.

EVERY SINGLE political yard sign I saw on the road was for Trump (only .5 hours of my drive on interstate, the rest on back roads)

My life-long Democrat aunt (although a "blue dog" i.e. votes Dem local but didn't vote Obama for President) and uncle are pro-Trump.

As I was asking her who she liked so far, my Dad, who DOES NOT TALK ABOUT HIS loving POLITICS BECAUSE IT'S RUDE AND NO ONE ELSE'S BUSINESS jumped in and made a passionate defense of Trump. :wtc:


We've created a monster.

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