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Gyges posted:Outside Kentucky, has the thread consensus been wrong? Second republican debate, fiorina on the main stage. I think "no" was close-ish to a consensus in this thread, for good reason
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Nov 16, 2015 01:48
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The Carson poll market looks like it might have overreacted. 30c for yes on hitting 22% now. I should buy some, but I'm not sure how much juggling I feel like doing tonight.
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Nov 16, 2015 02:37
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What did it even react to? I can't tell.
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Nov 16, 2015 03:18
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fronz posted:What did it even react to? I can't tell. Looks like it reacted to a New Hampshire poll by Gravis that put Carson at 7% in the state.
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Nov 16, 2015 03:23
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Vox Nihili posted:Looks like it reacted to a New Hampshire poll by Gravis that put Carson at 7% in the state. Weird, it'll probably dip back down by tomorrow. Seemed like a good selling point, might get back in if it stabilizes lower again.
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Nov 16, 2015 03:25
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fronz posted:Weird, it'll probably dip back down by tomorrow. Seemed like a good selling point, might get back in if it stabilizes lower again. Well there've only been three polls since the debates/pyramids/west point/trump attacks/etc - the Gravis (NH) one at 7%, the Rasmussen (national) one at 20%, and the Reuters (national) one at 19.6%. None of em are RCP-worthy, so it's mostly still in the dark, but they're all way below 22%
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Nov 16, 2015 03:30
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thethreeman posted:Well there've only been three polls since the debates/pyramids/west point/trump attacks/etc - the Gravis (NH) one at 7%, the Rasmussen (national) one at 20%, and the Reuters (national) one at 19.6%. None of em are RCP-worthy, so it's mostly still in the dark, but they're all way below 22% Insofar as 20% is way below 22%. At least one of these polls was conducted online, too, which is Trump territory. I wouldn't bet the farm either way (unless you plan to resell, then bet away!)
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Nov 16, 2015 03:33
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Vox Nihili posted:Insofar as 20% is way below 22%. At least one of these polls was conducted online, too, which is Trump territory. I wouldn't bet the farm either way (unless you plan to resell, then bet away!) For sure. This particular market really is gambling, given how much has happened to the Carson storyline (again, the stories around pyramids, west point, the stabbings, the Trump/pedophile comparisons, etc) since any legitimate polls have come out. Last time we went 11 days without an addition to the RCP republican national average http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html#polls was the end of June as far as I can see
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Nov 16, 2015 03:40
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Gyges posted:Outside Kentucky, has the thread consensus been wrong? Paul Ryan Speaker NO. Also no one here, or for that matter anywhere, saw Chafee "losing" the first debate. Right now there is a strong consensus JBE winning the LA governors race. There seems to be some moderate consensus on Carson missing his Nov 30 poll number, but not sure at these prices. So we will see. But more often than not the goon consensus has been on. But it's not 100%. Lesson is don't invest in something solely on what you read here without doing your own research. The crowd is not infallible, but if you are going against the grain there better be some compelling logic the other way.
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Nov 16, 2015 03:43
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thethreeman posted:Well there've only been three polls since the debates/pyramids/west point/trump attacks/etc - the Gravis (NH) one at 7%, the Rasmussen (national) one at 20%, and the Reuters (national) one at 19.6%. None of em are RCP-worthy, so it's mostly still in the dark, but they're all way below 22% Actually it's not fair for me to say the only 3 polls were those three. A lot more state-level polls listed here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ Carson below 22% in New Jersey (16%), South Carolina (21%), Texas (13%), New Hampshire (7%); at or above 22% in Arizona (23%), Georgia (26%), Florida (22%). Trending down in NH, up in FL, mixed in Georgia...
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Nov 16, 2015 03:47
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Also no one here, or for that matter anywhere, saw Chafee "losing" the first debate. Let's be honest, the very concept of mathematics was surprised at that result. If the RCP poll drought holds up the debate markets are going to be insane come end date. Either we're getting a slew of polls next week, or it's all going to be decided by a single poll by PPP that includes the comedy option of Ronald Reagan who gets 10% resulting in Paul "winning" the debate while Rubio "loses".
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Nov 16, 2015 05:08
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Gyges posted:Let's be honest, the very concept of mathematics was surprised at that result. Is there underlying logic on why the Republican poll was the average of 5 polls last week, but only 3 right now? I was running under the assumption that polls were only dropped when new polls came out, but that theory is now out the window. Is there a staleness factor too?
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Nov 16, 2015 06:35
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Tomato Burger posted:Is there underlying logic on why the Republican poll was the average of 5 polls last week, but only 3 right now? I was running under the assumption that polls were only dropped when new polls came out, but that theory is now out the window. Is there a staleness factor too? They seem to be dropping old polls after approximately 2 weeks now. Sometimes later, if there are few new ones, but rarely earlier. Usually they keep at least 4 polls in the average, though, so I'm surprised to see them knock it down to 3. Always keeping us on our feet and such. (Short answer: they don't make these decisions based on any hard or fast rules.)
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Nov 16, 2015 06:48
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I'm pretty sure the supreme court justice drop out poll is mispriced for a linked-contract, which it isn't yet but apparently will be soon If you buy all NOs in even amounts at current prices, you'll make money no matter who eventually is the winner. So basically right now it is just a super expensive ($8/share) buy in for a guaranteed 16c/share (which is oddly identical across all the possibilities)
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Nov 16, 2015 19:37
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Stereotype posted:I'm pretty sure the supreme court justice drop out poll is mispriced for a linked-contract, which it isn't yet but apparently will be soon It's kind of a pointless market with almost no liquidity and a open ended, potentially very long time frame. As a non-linked market, 16 cents is barely enough of a distortion play the buy all NO and wait it out. You might make a few pennies in the transition to a linked market, but even then good luck selling with such low turnover. Others here have found it hard to exit linked markets when they have insufficient cash to cover any increased exposure that selling creates. There is no good reason to buy anything in that market, especially when there are so many ways to make a reasonably safe 5 to 10% like betting on Hillary or Rubio to hit 50%/10% or the LA Governors race.
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Nov 16, 2015 20:42
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I dunno about the Vitter market anymore. Vitter came out with an ad attacking Edwards on the Paris massacre, which, knowing how dumb people can be, might just be the kind of October surprise that plays into it. I went ahead and bought in at 19 cents, just in case it's a big upset.
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Nov 17, 2015 00:39
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pathetic little tramp posted:I dunno about the Vitter market anymore. Vitter came out with an ad attacking Edwards on the Paris massacre, which, knowing how dumb people can be, might just be the kind of October surprise that plays into it. I went ahead and bought in at 19 cents, just in case it's a big upset. The early voting numbers still look bad for Vitter. I'm not sure whether a terror attack will help him, since his opponent is a former soldier and usually people cling to the party presently in power in times of fear.
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Nov 17, 2015 00:49
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Carson 22% has stabilized a bit again, lots of polls are showing him down after the Paris attacks (even if RCP doesn't count them and they're not national). Now might be another good time to buy in. E: If you can get smoeone to sell you no for 60c.
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Nov 17, 2015 17:53
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Hmm someone just bought my 25 hail mary NO LAGov R shares for 15c above what they are trading at (20c -> 35c). There are hundreds of cheaper shares, I can only imagine someone mistyped. Hooray I somehow didn't lose money on that after all, I actually made a total $5 buying and selling those over the past month.
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Nov 17, 2015 23:20
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Stereotype posted:Hmm someone just bought my 25 hail mary NO LAGov R shares for 15c above what they are trading at (20c -> 35c). There are hundreds of cheaper shares, I can only imagine someone mistyped. It will automatically buy them for less / sell them for more if it can. The price/quantity you put in is 'buy shares until you hit either of these thresholds'. So basically someone bought a shitload of shares and the market rebounded almost immediately
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Nov 17, 2015 23:46
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Quick, to the drop out market! https://twitter.com/costareports/status/666754028798365697
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Nov 18, 2015 00:08
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Thank you, Rand for sticking around well past your time of relevance.
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Nov 18, 2015 00:29
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Necc0 posted:You know reading that list and independently considering each of them I'd say most likely to drop out next would be a tie between Rand / Christie / Kasich. Most of the others are straight-charlatans and will run for as long as they can. Forgot that Jindal took himself seriously too woops. Good thing I didn't bet
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Nov 18, 2015 00:46
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Great, I was flipping the drop out market and forgot about it so I bought myself some shiny new Jindal shares.
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Nov 18, 2015 00:48
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Jindal has now been the winner of both "who will drop out first" markets.
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Nov 18, 2015 00:50
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Stereotype posted:Jindal has now been the winner of both "who will drop out first" markets. There's still time for him to un-quit and go for the trifecta.
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Nov 18, 2015 01:03
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There was a Walker win in between. This is the third drop out market.
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Nov 18, 2015 01:09
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pathetic little tramp posted:There was a Walker win in between. This is the third drop out market. How soon we forget ol' droopy face.
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Nov 18, 2015 01:42
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Necc0 posted:Forgot that Jindal took himself seriously too woops. Good thing I didn't bet Your mistake was forgetting that Rand is the greatest charlatan of all.
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Nov 18, 2015 03:41
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Vox Nihili posted:Your mistake was forgetting that Rand is the greatest charlatan of all. He absolutely is, but that won't stop me buying Rand NO for every single next drop market between now and May
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Nov 18, 2015 04:01
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Zeta Taskforce posted:He absolutely is, but that won't stop me buying Rand NO for every single next drop market between now and May It's precisely why I buy Rand No.  That and his tendency to follow in the footsteps of his father's own quixotic primary path.
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Nov 18, 2015 04:10
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Zeta Taskforce posted:He absolutely is, but that won't stop me buying Rand NO for every single next drop market between now and May There are very few instances where buying Rand Yes is a fiscally sound decision.
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Nov 18, 2015 04:18
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Someone just bought Graham Yes RNOM up to .09, which seems hilariously overpriced for someone who can't even get into the second-tier debates.
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Nov 18, 2015 05:26
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JohnnyPalace posted:Someone just bought Graham Yes RNOM up to .09, which seems hilariously overpriced for someone who can't even get into the second-tier debates. Looks like Graham's on another bender and discovered PredictIt 
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Nov 18, 2015 05:28
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Gyges posted:Outside Kentucky, has the thread consensus been wrong? Jim Webb ran as an independent  . What has the thread gotten right besides Joe Biden?
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Nov 18, 2015 10:55
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platzapS posted:Jim Webb ran as an independent I don't remember any strong consensus on Webb, other than it would be dumb, but he might be crazy enough to do it  But the debt ceiling, thinking Carly would be a flash in the pan, that Jeb! will never hit his polling numbers, even though PredictIt lowers the goal every month, Jeb! being overpriced to win the nomination, bringing to light short term over reactions where there is money sitting on the table
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Nov 18, 2015 19:00
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Zeta Taskforce posted:even though PredictIt lowers the goal every month, lmfao I never noticed this
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Nov 18, 2015 19:15
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So PPP and Bloomberg both have polls coming out. Finally these markets are starting to move. Already getting a bunch of movement due to PPPs poll saying Trump and Carson remain relatively unchanged. If your willing to play the short game, there are 5 cent swings up and down in these markets.
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Nov 19, 2015 01:03
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Necc0 posted:lmfao I never noticed this Goal appears to be based on their previous average, so it makes sense that Jeb's bar is a notch lower every month.
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Nov 19, 2015 05:08
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On the plus side we can't be more than a month or two away from the bar being too low for even Jeb! to limbo under. Of course it'll also be so low it'll get a market as often as Rand.
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Nov 19, 2015 05:20
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