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Necc0 posted:lmfao I never noticed this It makes intuitive sense. If you didn't adjust each new target based on prior numbers, it would quickly become a 99/- blowout every time after the first or second market.
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Nov 19, 2015 05:23
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Vox Nihili posted:Goal appears to be based on their previous average, so it makes sense that Jeb's bar is a notch lower every month. Net effect is it's like Charlie Brown with the football. It always seems so attainable, even for Jeb! but always gets taken away last minute. LA Governors race is making me nervous. Info seems to be all over the place with early voting, how many blacks, how many registered Dems. In a sane world the Paris bombings should have no effect, but listen to Vitter, JBE would be importing the entire country of Syria if you would let him. Then there was the Bevin's upset. It's about 1/8th of my portfolio and the last few days it has been moving in the wrong direction. Not sure if I should be holding or buying more at these prices.
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Nov 19, 2015 05:44
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The Direction of Country 11/20 market crashed from 96 to 50 earlier today when some new polls came out, but I can't figure out how such a huge drop is justified. Seems like there would need to be some very low new polls in the next 2 days, combined with RCP creatively culling old polls, to get below that 27 mark. Not impossible, but I think a lot better than 50/50.
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Nov 19, 2015 05:54
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Net effect is it's like Charlie Brown with the football. It always seems so attainable, even for Jeb! but always gets taken away last minute. You're not wrong, but I wouldn't worry too much about Kentucky. There was very little good polling on kentucky, and a fair bit more for LA, so the polls are more meaningful. I didn't buy into Kentucky precisely because I saw absolutely no good polls that weren't months old.
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Nov 19, 2015 06:04
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Man, that LA market crashed. I really hope Syria doesn't affect the race that much.
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Nov 19, 2015 06:08
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Sabato's a conservative, so check this outquote:Should Edwards lose while his polling average remain very slightly above 50%, he would have the highest polling average of any candidate who lost, dating back to 2004 from available polling averages tabulated by RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster. I'm buying Democrat YES for .69 and you probably should too.
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Nov 19, 2015 20:44
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I'm in the red on my LA shares but I'm holding out as well. I'm hoping Edwards pulled back just enough to sway those who may have jumped ship on the refugee question. Also had a lot of fun pumping the Trump 27 market and making a few bucks. Held a few too many shares though and now I'm pretty much at my starting point. Given the ever so slight tick in support, I'm somewhat bullish on Trump 27. Most likely he won't make it, but I think this market will rebound enough to make a buck or two. I think he should be much higher than 18 cents yes. We still have a week and a half of polls after a long drought, so I'm hoping we get a bunch all at the same time.
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Nov 20, 2015 00:15
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When does Louisiana resolve?
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Nov 20, 2015 00:22
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fronz posted:When does Louisiana resolve? This Saturday
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Nov 20, 2015 00:28
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I just went in big on O'Malley getting the biggest post-debate bump. Hillary currently leading by 0.2% after PPP, but O'Malley showing that his new range is around 5%. A couple more polls and I think he'll take this.
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Nov 20, 2015 00:47
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It looks like RCP released some new polls, with good news for the Carson.NO 22% and Jeb! NO 7%. I'm looking to make another 300 bucks from that 
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Nov 20, 2015 01:22
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Vox Nihili posted:I just went in big on O'Malley getting the biggest post-debate bump. Hillary currently leading by 0.2% after PPP, but O'Malley showing that his new range is around 5%. A couple more polls and I think he'll take this. Wish I hadn't gotten cold feet on that market yesterday, I sold off half my (already meager) position at a slight loss.
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Nov 20, 2015 01:43
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I'm doing pretty good on the percentages this cycle:
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Nov 20, 2015 02:01
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Vox Nihili posted:I just went in big on O'Malley getting the biggest post-debate bump. Hillary currently leading by 0.2% after PPP, but O'Malley showing that his new range is around 5%. A couple more polls and I think he'll take this. I'm going for the (nearly) guaranteed win by betting that Sanders won't get the biggest bump. I've doubled my money in the last month with an assist from Biden but mostly by small incremental progress.
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Nov 20, 2015 02:37
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I'm going for the (nearly) guaranteed win by betting that Sanders won't get the biggest bump. I've doubled my money in the last month with an assist from Biden but mostly by small incremental progress. Managed to get in on that one, too. Lots of (sadly) unjustified exuberance there.
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Nov 20, 2015 02:45
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watwat posted:This Saturday The vote itself is on Saturday, right? I just realized that will be really good for turnout
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Nov 20, 2015 03:53
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Also: LINKED DEM PRIMARY MARKET- IT COMES 
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Nov 20, 2015 03:55
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Necc0 posted:The vote itself is on Saturday, right? I just realized that will be really good for turnout New poll from yesterday, polling done from 11/16-11/18 (i.e., all since the Paris attacks): http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/mri-23192 Shows Edwards 52% to Vitter 40%, assuming 26% African American turnout (which is what HuffPo has always used, no idea if it's the right estimate). At just 20% AA turnout, Edwards only leads 49% / 43%.
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Nov 20, 2015 04:09
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Necc0 posted:Also: Is there easy profit to be made from the switch to linked? I haven't been paying attention to all that.
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Nov 20, 2015 05:27
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fronz posted:Is there easy profit to be made from the switch to linked? I haven't been paying attention to all that. You can buy lots of shares for cheap and there are so many people on the nomination markets that you might even be able to come close to maxing out on all of them for just a few hundred. Which should give you a pretty decent longish term investment. Unless Bill de Blasio somehow ends up the nominee and your house of cards comes crashing down. When the Republican one finally links it should be crazy. 21 options to buy at no, and only one of them will be wrong. The real limit is going to be having enough liquidity for you to be able to buy in on something like de Blasio or Susana Martinez.
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Nov 20, 2015 06:03
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Necc0 posted:Also: Can someone go over what this does to existing investments?
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Nov 20, 2015 06:59
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JosefStalinator posted:Can someone go over what this does to existing investments? If you have "No" contracts for multiple candidates you will be credited (almost) the value of all but one. (basically) (assuming equal $ investments in each) The more "No" contracts in a market you hold, the closer the credit % approaches 100%. So, No-holders get a lot more money to play with as their markets become linked.
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Nov 20, 2015 07:08
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Aliquid posted:Sabato's a conservative, so check this out Thanks for pointing this out, by the way. Managed to buy in while it was still in the upper sixties and it looks like the market is returning to sanity. EZ money
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Nov 20, 2015 16:56
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Also: I'm seeing people citing Breitbart in the comments more than anything else now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi_3v-FpKFg
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Nov 20, 2015 17:08
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Yeah, the real money to be made is when the crazies start to enter the market. Back in 08 I was still able to buy Obama to win the Presidency at like 0.60 until practically election day. 2016 is gonna be good, because we are entering peak crazy.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:45
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I'm buying up Democrats losing the White House and Republicans winning right now since the prices are in the 30s. Sell at 50, make a nice profit, then buy into the more reasonable position for much cheaper.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:55
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Bush hitting 7% is a wild ride right now... he got a 5 and a 6 recently, which soothsayers on both sides are claiming are a sign that he definitely will/won't hit 7 by the end of the month. I have a bit of money on No, but I'm mostly just enjoying watching the market while counting my Rubio Yes dollars.
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Nov 20, 2015 23:55
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What I feel confident in is Bush not being able to hit 8% in the Iowa Caucus, barring a major drop-out epidemic among the current candidates.
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Nov 21, 2015 00:23
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Lot's of fun new markets just opened:
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Nov 21, 2015 01:39
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Will Bush drop out before Iowa
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Necc0 posted:Lot's of fun new markets just opened: I'm attempting to get in early on the "rational" positions for the SC/NV GOP primary races, which is to say, No on Carson, Yes on Cruz/Rubio/Trump.
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Nov 21, 2015 01:46
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Necc0 posted:Lot's of fun new markets just opened: These look cool, but I don't see any obvious winners other than maybe some NO's to Carson on some.
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Nov 21, 2015 01:48
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Tomato Burger posted:Bush hitting 7% is a wild ride right now... he got a 5 and a 6 recently, which soothsayers on both sides are claiming are a sign that he definitely will/won't hit 7 by the end of the month. I have a bit of money on No, but I'm mostly just enjoying watching the market while counting my Rubio Yes dollars. I sold earlier when it hit 93, I had bought at 59 so I wanted to take some profits. I've been buying some today at 90. The way "average" works is every once in a while you need to have numbers above to cancel out the ones below.
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Nov 21, 2015 01:49
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JosefStalinator posted:These look cool, but I don't see any obvious winners other than maybe some NO's to Carson on some. Not sure how Rice's market will act but there's a 0% chance she'll accept the VP nom even if it's handed to her on a silver platter. It'll probably be low volume so something to keep an eye on in case some crazies latch onto it. The Bush drop out market may get pretty silly as well because there's a growing consensus that he's going to drop out in order for the establishment to regroup behind Carson. Obviously this isn't going to happen so there may be some money to make there. Also do the actual election markets count as polls? We're allowed to bet on those, right?
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Nov 21, 2015 02:12
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Necc0 posted:
Election markets are great because there's no bullshit on picking random polls. There will be a single result. It's just too bad predictit waited so long to introduce them, because there were a lot of flashes in the pans to bet no on and make out like a bandit - imagine if they'd introduced them when Fiorina was at her peak. I did that over on mediapredict, and she's collapsed from a high of 14% expected to 5.5% expected in Iowa, and something like PredictIt's solid yes/no would meaneven better returns than with mediapredict's percentages.
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Nov 21, 2015 02:26
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Necc0 posted:Not sure how Rice's market will act but there's a 0% chance she'll accept the VP nom even if it's handed to her on a silver platter. It'll probably be low volume so something to keep an eye on in case some crazies latch onto it. Good points, and it made me realize that one of the leaders in the GOP VP candidates is Kasich (though still only at 23%). Am I insane to think that Kasich is very, very unlikely to be a VP pick?
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Nov 21, 2015 03:01
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JosefStalinator posted:Good points, and it made me realize that one of the leaders in the GOP VP candidates is Kasich (though still only at 23%). Am I insane to think that Kasich is very, very unlikely to be a VP pick? I'm sure he'll be considered because he's from Ohio.
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Nov 21, 2015 06:03
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I have put in a pretty decent amount of money on Vitter being elected tomorrow. I just have a terrible, terrible feeling that everything that's happened over the last week, combined with Bevin's win in KY is gonna drive people out.
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Nov 21, 2015 07:10
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Yoshifan823 posted:I have put in a pretty decent amount of money on Vitter being elected tomorrow. I just have a terrible, terrible feeling that everything that's happened over the last week, combined with Bevin's win in KY is gonna drive people out. Ehh, I've got money on Edwards and I don't think Vitter's going to pull it out. There were quite a few polls a week or two ago showing 15-20% leads for Edwards, and I don't think the Paris attacks will be sufficient to sway the electorate that much. Should be closer than 15-20, but Edwards seems to be benefiting from the Jindal hate.
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Nov 21, 2015 08:00
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I sold earlier when it hit 93, I had bought at 59 so I wanted to take some profits. I've been buying some today at 90. The way "average" works is every once in a while you need to have numbers above to cancel out the ones below. One commenter was convinced that Bloomberg was about to fire off a 15 for Bush. The actual result was a 6... not quite there. Then again most of the people on the boards think they are clever sharps who spread misinformation and buy the opposite side of the bet. I only trust Something Awful Dot Com for my predictive needs.
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Nov 21, 2015 14:13
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Wow the LA Gov market is starting to spook. I'm pretty heavy on Republican No right now. Still think this is a good win for the Dem but the Kentucky result still weighs heavy.
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Nov 21, 2015 14:37
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