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I wonder if there is some inside trading going on, like someone who did the polling
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Nov 22, 2015 08:42
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Aliquid posted:RCP dumped a few polls, so the current ones may stick around awhile. Too late, making money on Ben Carson's bubble bursting 
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Nov 22, 2015 08:53
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RIP my money
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Nov 22, 2015 09:02
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Trump at 32 Clinton at 60. Looks like this poll is probably an outlier but holy poo poo is it awful for the poll markets.
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Nov 22, 2015 10:40
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Zeta Taskforce posted:...presumably after Paris candidates with foreign policy should be favored. I think this is an initial gut-reaction of flocking towards the candidate talking about the biggest wall and monitoring mosques and everything. It is a huge outlier in general and I don't think other polls will follow suit in the medium-term. However, any other polls coming out very soon may show a similar reactionary impact.
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Nov 22, 2015 14:09
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New Fox Poll. Thank you based Trump! http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...itics+-+Text%29
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Nov 22, 2015 15:22
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Man good call on the dem bump market. It's already crashing back down. Good thing I cashed out when I did
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Nov 22, 2015 15:25
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Trump should be at another edit: Quinnipiac officially dropped eeeeedit: 
huge pile of hamburger has issued a correction as of 15:55 on Nov 22, 2015 |
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Nov 22, 2015 15:34
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Necc0 posted:Man good call on the dem bump market. It's already crashing back down. Good thing I cashed out when I did Truth. I got me some Clinton No at 64 and sold it at 88. Back down to 58 now.
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Nov 22, 2015 17:11
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tinstaach posted:No on Trump polling at 27% is going for less than 75c when he's currently at 24.6 and hasn't hit 27 since the first of the month. This might stay undervalues for a while, there's a lot of wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwelp
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Nov 22, 2015 18:13
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ONLINE POLLS
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Tomato Burger posted:I think this is an initial gut-reaction of flocking towards the candidate talking about the biggest wall and monitoring mosques and everything. I've never seen markets move like that in the middle of the night like that and tiredly assumed someone with fat fingers meant to by 100 but accidentally bought 1000. My Achilles heel is always underestimating how easy it is to manipulate people's most dark, ignorant fears for personal gain. Here I am thinking that when we are reminded how dangerous the world can be we want someone who is smart, measured and informed, not someone who is going to cancel the first amendment for cheap political points. There goes all my JBE winnings.....
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Nov 22, 2015 18:54
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Stop betting on polls! Unless it's the carson.NO 22%, which has netted me another 250 dollars  . Based Biden, your money grows!
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Nov 22, 2015 20:44
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User Error posted:Truth. I got me some Clinton No at 64 and sold it at 88. Back down to 58 now. I actually jumped back in just now--it's crazy that people still think this is 55/45 just a few days from closing. Let's see if my greed pays off.
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Nov 22, 2015 20:56
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Vox Nihili posted:I actually jumped back in just now--it's crazy that people still think this is 55/45 just a few days from closing. Let's see if my greed pays off. The Dem bump market? It doesn't close until the 28th. I have Clinton +1.1 while OMalley is +1.7. That one OMally 7 from PPP was a one off outlier. If/when Rasmussen drops this is a while new ballgame.
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Nov 22, 2015 23:00
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watwat posted:The Dem bump market? It doesn't close until the 28th. I have Clinton +1.1 while OMalley is +1.7. That one OMally 7 from PPP was a one off outlier. If/when Rasmussen drops this is a while new ballgame. Yeah I'm with you. Don't gently caress me O'mallentum!
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Nov 23, 2015 00:12
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watwat posted:The Dem bump market? It doesn't close until the 28th. I have Clinton +1.1 while OMalley is +1.7. That one OMally 7 from PPP was a one off outlier. If/when Rasmussen drops this is a while new ballgame. One off outlier? He also had a 5 and a 6.
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Nov 23, 2015 02:00
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Vox Nihili posted:One off outlier? He also had a 5 and a 6. In a sea of 3 and unders.
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Nov 23, 2015 03:28
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Nothing under 3 in weeks. His average has been around 4% recently.
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Nov 23, 2015 05:53
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I'm not gonna lie, Vitter losing really hurt me in the wallet area (though it's dulled by the fact that he's a shithead who lost, so woo), but a kind soul put up 500 shares of Carson winning the Iowa Primary for 10 cents a piece, which means that somewhere, the PredictIt gods are looking out for me, because that's basically as low as he's ever been, and he's the exact right type of religious shithead to win in Iowa. See: Huckabee, Mike or Santorum, Rick.
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Nov 23, 2015 09:46
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Yoshifan823 posted:I'm not gonna lie, Vitter losing really hurt me in the wallet area (though it's dulled by the fact that he's a shithead who lost, so woo), but a kind soul put up 500 shares of Carson winning the Iowa Primary for 10 cents a piece, which means that somewhere, the PredictIt gods are looking out for me, because that's basically as low as he's ever been, and he's the exact right type of religious shithead to win in Iowa. See: Huckabee, Mike or Santorum, Rick. That's a great deal, but I really think Carson's time is eclipsing. I'd still take 500 shares at 10 cent just in case he ekes it out among the religious nuts, like you said, but I think it's about time Rubio or someone else became the flavor of the month (tm).
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Nov 23, 2015 11:50
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Yeah keep in mind the other Iowa winners sprung out of nowhere due to some other candidate flaming out. However 9:1 payoff is worth it as long as you understand it's a gamble.
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Nov 23, 2015 15:57
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Yoshifan823 posted:I'm not gonna lie, Vitter losing really hurt me in the wallet area (though it's dulled by the fact that he's a shithead who lost, so woo), but a kind soul put up 500 shares of Carson winning the Iowa Primary for 10 cents a piece, which means that somewhere, the PredictIt gods are looking out for me, because that's basically as low as he's ever been, and he's the exact right type of religious shithead to win in Iowa. See: Huckabee, Mike or Santorum, Rick. Yeah, the polling in Louisiana proved to be surprisingly accurate. I never did jump back into that one for the finish--I was definitely influenced by Kentucky.
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Nov 23, 2015 16:56
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Weird swing just happened in the weekly right direction market. YES was selling at 20 cents a share, and then somebody bought up everything they could. Granted it wasn't a very deep market since it only went up to 60 cents each, but for a while there were absolutely zero YES shares available.
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Nov 23, 2015 17:01
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Necc0 posted:Yeah keep in mind the other Iowa winners sprung out of nowhere due to some other candidate flaming out. However 9:1 payoff is worth it as long as you understand it's a gamble. Also worth keeping in mind that, if I'm remembering correctly, Iowa is approaching being negatively correlated with winning the nomination. I think it's something like 3 winners of both Iowa and the nomination without being sitting President since the 70s. Iowa Republican Caucus voters like religious candidates who are salt of the earth types. So Carson, Huckabee, and Santorum are all looking at better odds that it would appear. Of course there's also a good shot for Ted Cruz, whose Dark Side strategy looks to be beginning to pay off. The countdown to Senator Lee trying to dissolve the Senate has begun.
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Nov 23, 2015 17:10
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Is anyone involved the IA GOP election market? I understand why Trump/Cruz are the top two bets with Carson declining, but why is Trump going for 29c while Cruz is 41c, given Trump was +8, +14, and +9 (relative to Cruz) in the three most recent polls. Cruz gained big from carson in the last poll, but Trump did too. Someone talk me out of buying lots of Cruz NOs... Or maybe I'll just buy both Cruz and Trump YESes for 70c... edit; okay convo is happening as I posted this...
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Nov 23, 2015 17:35
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Here's my advice for the Iowa GOP election results: Ben Carson certainly won't break 23% absent a major winnowing of the field. Jeb! won't break 9.5% again without major winnowing of the field. Fiorina's going to be lucky to break 6% even if a whole bunch of people dropped. As of now this leaves Trump, Rubio, and Cruz as the ones who have real likelihood to pull a plurality or even a majority.
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Nov 23, 2015 17:52
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fishmech posted:Here's my advice for the Iowa GOP election results: Ben Carson certainly won't break 23% absent a major winnowing of the field. Jeb! won't break 9.5% again without major winnowing of the field. Fiorina's going to be lucky to break 6% even if a whole bunch of people dropped. I think past elections have shown that Iowa is quite a bit more fluid than this. All sorts of nonsense could happen there in the next couple months. Fiorina and Jeb aren't among the candidates likely to win there, though, I agree on that.
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Nov 23, 2015 21:09
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I like carson at 10 cents simply because I kind of see that as his floor in that state for the next month or two. But then again, I wouldn't be looking to make a 90 cent profit per share on this, I'd be comfortable getting out a lot quicker than that.
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Nov 23, 2015 21:45
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might be dumb, but i bought some trump indie run. even if he doesnt, i suspect he'll threaten it some more in the future and boost it enough beyond the 11 cents i got it at
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Nov 23, 2015 21:47
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:might be dumb, but i bought some trump indie run. even if he doesnt, i suspect he'll threaten it some more in the future and boost it enough beyond the 11 cents i got it at Hell even if he doesn't the market will probably rise more once the real GOP assault starts next month.
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Nov 23, 2015 21:49
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I think if the Iowa caucus were held tomorrow, people would be bidding a lot higher than 10¢ on Carson winning it. The real risk is that Carson’s campaign falls apart between now and then, which is a real concern, but possibly overestimated by most traders.
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Nov 23, 2015 21:53
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:might be dumb, but i bought some trump indie run. even if he doesnt, i suspect he'll threaten it some more in the future and boost it enough beyond the 11 cents i got it at this is actually a really good idea imo. i think share prices are going to dip again in a couple days then go back up later
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Nov 23, 2015 22:04
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:might be dumb, but i bought some trump indie run. even if he doesnt, i suspect he'll threaten it some more in the future and boost it enough beyond the 11 cents i got it at
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Nov 23, 2015 22:13
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It's a tricky one because of the 2015 deadline. I think it's free money at 90c but there is a chance people are going to be irrational and push YES above 10c in the next month. Personally I'd go for the NO shares. Even if Trump gets hit hard by the RNC he won't see polling go down quickly enough to make a decision to quit and run 3rd party by December 31st.
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Nov 23, 2015 22:28
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Non-poll markets ahoy! New contracts for Syrian refugee legislation and TPP ratification are now open.
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Nov 24, 2015 01:35
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That Syria market is an easy no, but let's see if I can get in for sub-50. edit: whoa Cruz just shot up in the VP market, thanks whoever bought those ancient shares off of me!
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Nov 24, 2015 01:44
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The TPP passage market is currently sitting at 40ish cents - does anyone else think this is a bit of a bargain? I know the candidates have all bitched about the TPP but there seems to be support between the monied interests and obama, and I have a hard time seeing this fail. Maybe the time limits the main factor here?
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Nov 24, 2015 14:14
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JosefStalinator posted:The TPP passage market is currently sitting at 40ish cents - does anyone else think this is a bit of a bargain? I know the candidates have all bitched about the TPP but there seems to be support between the monied interests and obama, and I have a hard time seeing this fail. Maybe the time limits the main factor here? I'm trying to be patient and see if Yes will dip into the 20's. I agree that it will eventually pass. Anything that is in the Venn diagram of the monied interests of both parties and Obama has to pass. But I don't know about the date either and 40ish seems high to make a substantial bet
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Nov 24, 2015 16:45
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Looks like BUSH.DROPOUT has already returned to a more sane number so I'm glad I bought that when I did. Also I totally forgot about DNOM linking and it took me a while to figure out where the surprise $50 in my account came from. I was planning on taking advantage of that but it looks like others already vacuumed up all the free shares. There's straight up nothing available beyond the top four candidates. Which is correct so it's nice to see the linking is working as intended. Now for them to link the RNOM market 
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Nov 24, 2015 17:50
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JosefStalinator posted:The TPP passage market is currently sitting at 40ish cents - does anyone else think this is a bit of a bargain? I know the candidates have all bitched about the TPP but there seems to be support between the monied interests and obama, and I have a hard time seeing this fail. Maybe the time limits the main factor here? I think it will head toward at least 50/50 yes/no myself as more people enter the market.
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Nov 24, 2015 17:50
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