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A new "US is behind ISIS!" article seems to have cropped up, written by Nafeez Ahmad, who is seeking crowdfunding for "Insurge Intelligence: Watchdog journalism for global commons." They seem to have a history of claiming that NATO is harbouring ISIS, at least from 2014. In this current text, published on medium.com, Ahmad claims that a declassified document proves that the West predicted the rise of ISIS. The relevant part of the document seems to be this: "C. If the situation unravels there is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality in eastern Syria (Hasaka and Der Zor), and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime, which is considered the strategic depth of the Shia expansion (Iraq and Iran)." Earlier on, it is recapped that the West, Gulf countries, and Turkey are supporting the opposition, while the regime is supported by Iran, Russia and apparently China. Is it just me, or is the author of the article confused by the word "supporting?" I mean, nowhere in the document it is said the "West" is wishing for a "Salafist principality." Considering that this is an American document, the quoted part seems to mean the Gulf countries and Turkey. Am I totally off target here?
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Nov 26, 2015 14:27
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34933608 Medvedev says that Russia is drafting sactions against Turkey due to the shot-down jet.
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Nov 26, 2015 14:40
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Xtronoc posted:Wait, do people still believe there's viable political solution assuming that Assad will negotiate in good faith? The present ceasefire negotiations have a lot of people pointing to them and going 'see? Look how reasonable Assad is compared to IS. This is why Russia's negotiated solution is the only path to peace'. Remind me, where was that article about the UN's Syria negotiator being in the pocket of one of the Gulf states?
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Nov 26, 2015 14:41
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Trogdos! posted:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34933608 Isnt that gonna hurt Russia far more than Turkey considering Turkey is a major customer of theirs?
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Nov 26, 2015 14:51
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By the way does anyone have a source for the claims that the Russian jet was flying without transponders, radio, identifying marks etc? I've seen it posted on SA but don't recall actually reading it in a real news source. Thank you!
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Nov 26, 2015 14:51
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Darth Walrus posted:The present ceasefire negotiations have a lot of people pointing to them and going 'see? Look how reasonable Assad is compared to IS. This is why Russia's negotiated solution is the only path to peace'. That was Libya.
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Nov 26, 2015 14:59
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hitchensgoespop posted:Isnt that gonna hurt Russia far more than Turkey considering Turkey is a major customer of theirs? Turkey imports a lot of stuff and is heavily reliant on Russian gas, the EU could pick up some of the Russian imports but I'm not sure about the energy side of things. A major thing would be Russia targeting the Turkish construction sector which has been expanding to the tune of several billion dollars in Russia, the infrastructure during Sochi for example was largely built by Turkish firms. The AKP have strong links to the construction sector which has generally be given a privileged position economically, Turkey has relied quite heavily on a construction boom to drive the economy. If Russia starts cutting off contracts to Turkish firms Erdogan could feel the heat from some very wealthy and powerful people who have backed him for some time.
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Nov 26, 2015 15:14
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Russia is also building four nuclear reactors for a new Turkish power plant. I have no idea about nuclear power but I can't imagine finding a new vendor for a project that's been ongoing for five years would be easy or simple. That probably would not be good for Turkey. Or Rosatom.
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Nov 26, 2015 15:17
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I have read on the news that in the war in Yemen (that seems that can be described as a civil war used as a proxy war) UAE is hiring colombian mercenaries. So, basically, redacted for shock effect... the Colombian FARC is fighting Iran allies, probably using russian kalasmikofs. So one group of soldiers would say "Allah Ackbar" and the others "¡Nanay cucas!" or some cute colombian line (colombians are awesome people). 2015 is glorious complicated in a ridiculous way.
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Nov 26, 2015 15:32
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Promontory posted:A new "US is behind ISIS!" article seems to have cropped up, written by Nafeez Ahmad, who is seeking crowdfunding for "Insurge Intelligence: Watchdog journalism for global commons." They seem to have a history of claiming that NATO is harbouring ISIS, at least from 2014. In this current text, published on medium.com, Ahmad claims that a declassified document proves that the West predicted the rise of ISIS. The relevant part of the document seems to be this: He says "supporting powers of the opposition" which, according to the author includes "the West." I don't see your point. The author also includes Iraq in "the Shia expansion" and notes such a development can also form a grave threat to the Iraqi government. This document also shows that DOD knew, even pretty early on, the dominant ideological character of the Syrian insurgency: It was sectarian, salafist and chiefly driven by Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda. There is no mythical "moderate rebels" to be found here.
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Nov 26, 2015 15:34
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kustomkarkommando posted:Turkey imports a lot of stuff and is heavily reliant on Russian gas, the EU could pick up some of the Russian imports but I'm not sure about the energy side of things. Ukraine just stopped buying Russian gas and is apparently now being supplied from the EU already. I doubt that there is a lot of spare capacity to pick up the slack for Turkey if that is true, given that the EU also imports a lot of Russian gas.
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Nov 26, 2015 15:42
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Swan Oat posted:Russia is also building four nuclear reactors for a new Turkish power plant. I have no idea about nuclear power but I can't imagine finding a new vendor for a project that's been ongoing for five years would be easy or simple. That probably would not be good for Turkey. Or Rosatom. If they actually do that, it's going to mean the end of business prospects for Rosatom outside of Russian-aligned states. Finland is going to cancel their reactor plans in a hurry for one if it turns out their contracts are tied to geopolitical events and interests.
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Nov 26, 2015 15:53
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Speaking of violating airspace, here is a funny graph I saw on another forum.  From here http://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-buzzes-weakened-greece-military-airspace/ Had Russia been going into Turkish airspace constantly? I remember Turkey issuing warnings a while ago, but didn't hear anything after that. I'd love to see a comparable graph for Russia and Turkey. I think we've all seen the list of Russia and NATO.
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Nov 26, 2015 16:02
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kustomkarkommando posted:Turkey imports a lot of stuff and is heavily reliant on Russian gas, the EU could pick up some of the Russian imports but I'm not sure about the energy side of things. Which will hurt Russia more than Turkey. Russia is in the middle of a minor economic crisis.
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Nov 26, 2015 16:03
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Promontory posted:A new "US is behind ISIS!" article seems to have cropped up, written by Nafeez Ahmad, who is seeking crowdfunding for "Insurge Intelligence: Watchdog journalism for global commons." They seem to have a history of claiming that NATO is harbouring ISIS, at least from 2014. In this current text, published on medium.com, Ahmad claims that a declassified document proves that the West predicted the rise of ISIS. The relevant part of the document seems to be this: Here 'supporting' means Gulf States and Turkey.
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Nov 26, 2015 16:09
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fspades posted:He says "supporting powers of the opposition" which, according to the author includes "the West." I don't see your point. The author also includes Iraq in "the Shia expansion" and notes such a development can also form a grave threat to the Iraqi government. This is what puzzles me. Wouldn't it be simpler to write "this is what we want?" Namedropping the Muslim Brotherhood is also odd to me, since to my understanding the Brotherhood tried to make a return to Syria when the uprising started, but were largely rebuffed by the Syrian population.
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Nov 26, 2015 16:24
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Wez posted:Here 'supporting' means Gulf States and Turkey. This is what I'm leaning towards, yes.
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Nov 26, 2015 16:25
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Count Roland posted:Had Russia been going into Turkish airspace constantly? I remember Turkey issuing warnings a while ago, but didn't hear anything after that. I'd love to see a comparable graph for Russia and Turkey. I think we've all seen the list of Russia and NATO. They've done it a few times and there was extensive diplomatic rustling about it a couple of months ago The Guardian, article from a simpler time, October, 2015 posted:Nato’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, had said earlier on Tuesday that the Russian incursions into Turkish airspace did not appear to be an accident, because the incursions had happened twice and lasted for a long time. Turns out when Erdogan said he can't endure Russian violations of Turkish airspace, he meant it.
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Nov 26, 2015 16:28
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Wez posted:Here 'supporting' means Gulf States and Turkey. You base that on what? The author never isolates Gulf States and Turkey. In fact elsewhere he says under the heading "Future assumptions of the crisis": "On the other hand, opposition forces are trying to control eastern Areas (Hasaka and Der Zor), adjacent to the Western Iraqi Provinces (Mosul and Anbar), in addition to neighboring Turkish borders. Western countries, the Gulf States and Turkey are supporting these efforts." So we have a document from DoD that says: 1. The insurgency in Syria takes a sectarian and Salafist character. 2. It is assumed the situation deteriorating into a Proxy war with Russia, Iran and China is the most likely possibility, with Western countries, in addition to their Turkish and Gulf allies, assumed to be supporting said Salafist insurgents in eastern Syria ( Hasaka and Der Zor) in the future. 3. It is also mentioned that the establishment of a Salafist principality in eastern Syria is not only a possibility, it is preferable to the supporters of the opposition to isolate the Assad regime from the Shia expansion. fspades fucked around with this message at 16:38 on Nov 26, 2015 |
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Nov 26, 2015 16:36
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Promontory posted:This is what puzzles me. Wouldn't it be simpler to write "this is what we want?" Namedropping the Muslim Brotherhood is also odd to me, since to my understanding the Brotherhood tried to make a return to Syria when the uprising started, but were largely rebuffed by the Syrian population. I'm not an expert on the wording of US DoD documents by any means, but don't ignore that this is an information report, not a policy recommendation. The author attempts to describe the situation and the future possibilities in a detached and neutral manner, so "this is what we should do" would be an inappropriate thing to include.
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Nov 26, 2015 16:48
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Wez posted:Here 'supporting' means Gulf States and Turkey. It is both. The US and its Gulf allies are both directly and indirectly supporting Salafist outfits.
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Nov 26, 2015 17:10
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Tei posted:I have read on the news that in the war in Yemen (that seems that can be described as a civil war used as a proxy war) UAE is hiring colombian mercenaries. It's more likely that the Colombians are ex-special forces guys. Erik Prince hired a lot of out of work Latin American death squad types for Iraq.
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Nov 26, 2015 17:29
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TheOtherContraGuy posted:It's more likely that the Colombians are ex-special forces guys. Erik Prince hired a lot of out of work Latin American death squad types for Iraq. The NYTimes article I linked to yesterday indicated that Prince helped lay the foundation for UAE's mercenary training facilities, but that it's now fully operated and administered by the UAE military. Article also indicated that the Columbians are mainly special forces who were specifically sought after as they have experience in guerrilla warfare from fighting the FARC. Columbian military source indicated that they would be making some $400 per month had they stayed in Columbia. UAE pays about $2,000 per month. Those selected to deploy and fight in Yemen receive an additional $1,000 per week.
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Nov 26, 2015 17:55
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Promontory posted:This is what puzzles me. Wouldn't it be simpler to write "this is what we want?" Namedropping the Muslim Brotherhood is also odd to me, since to my understanding the Brotherhood tried to make a return to Syria when the uprising started, but were largely rebuffed by the Syrian population. I remember this paper from before, I was hoping more of it had been released or unclassified. I speculate that the document was written by an analyst concerned primarily with security in Iraq. This isn't a grand strategy document, it is a clear explanation of what is happening. It makes sense to use the language "this is what the supporters of the opposition want" instead of "what we want", because to someone concerned with Iraqi security the creation of a salafist principality right on the border is a very serious problem. That last sentence is still so tantalizing: quote:the renewing facilitation of terrorist elements from all over the arab world entering into iraqi arena: I sure would like to know who the author thinks is doing the facilitating.
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Nov 26, 2015 18:15
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CommieGIR posted:Which will hurt Russia more than Turkey. Russia is in the middle of a minor economic crisis. Russia may be in bad shape but Turkeys economy isn't looking too rosy either. Foreign investment is leaving the country, growth is slowing down and the Lira is taking a battering on the markets - a trade war with Russia would not be beneficial to them at all. Part of the AKPs support has always been from their presentation of themselves as being a safe pair hands guiding Turkey's economy, Erdogan hasn't reacted very well to the increasingly gloomy economic prospects and significant problems on that front could lead to some serious problems for him within the party where there are voices of dissent beginning to murmur over the turn about in economic fortunes.
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Nov 26, 2015 18:20
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kustomkarkommando posted:Russia may be in bad shape but Turkeys economy isn't looking too rosy either. Foreign investment is leaving the country, growth is slowing down and the Lira is taking a battering on the markets - a trade war with Russia would not be beneficial to them at all. So, what you're really saying is that a trade war between Russia and Turkey would be a win-win?
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Nov 26, 2015 18:28
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https://citeam.org/russian-specoperations-servicemen-killed-in-syria/ Russia might be covering up more fatalities in Syria, soldiers just can't stop themselves from posting.
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Nov 26, 2015 18:50
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By "hasn't reacted very well" I mean Erdogan has blamed the country's economic problems on a shadowy cabal of treasonous bankers working with international capital to stifle turkey. http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0LW0Y520150228
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Nov 26, 2015 18:57
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I never imagined that one common element between Ukraine and Syria would be the persistent desire of the Russian serviceman to put his picture up on the web and the inability of the Army to stop him. It's already made a mockery of the claim of mostly "grassroots" rebels in Donetsk, and not it's undercutting the Russian media plan in Syria.
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Nov 26, 2015 18:59
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Germany to send 4-6 tornado jets for reconaissance to Syria. If they start, that is.
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Nov 26, 2015 19:22
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pkay posted:It is both. The US and its Gulf allies are both directly and indirectly supporting Salafist outfits. Yes - that reading of the report was confirmed in this interview with Michael Flynn, who was head of the DIA at the time (relevant discussion starts at about 8:50): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG3j8OYKgn4 quote:Mehdi Hassan: Did you see this document in 2012? He explicitly says right there that the report prompted him to get into arguments about the groups the US was supporting. quote:Mehdi Hassan: In 2012 your agency was saying "The Salafist, the Muslim Brotherhood, and AQI are the major forces driving the insurgency in Syria". In 2012 the US was helping coordinate arms transfers to those same groups. Why did you not stop that, if you were worried about then rise of "Islamic extremism" quote:Mehdi Hassan: You are basically saying that even in government at the time you knew these groups were around, you saw this analysis, and you were arguing against it, but who wasn’t listening? The near silence on this in the media has been deafening.
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Nov 26, 2015 20:01
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fspades posted:3. It is also mentioned that the establishment of a Salafist principality in eastern Syria is not only a possibility, it is preferable to the supporters of the opposition to isolate the Assad regime from the Shia expansion. Should be pointed out that this document was released several months before ISIS even entered Syria.
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Nov 26, 2015 20:17
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Encolpio posted:Yes - that reading of the report was confirmed in this interview with Michael Flynn, who was head of the DIA at the time (relevant discussion starts at about 8:50): Anyone who was alive in 2012 should have known that the hard core of the armed opposition were radical islamists funded by the Gulf. I am pretty certain both I and many others said as much on this forum at the time. Books worth of text was produced about how Robert Fisk must have sold his soul to Bashar al-Assad for saying as much.
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Nov 26, 2015 20:22
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Svartvit posted:Anyone who was alive in 2012 should have known that the hard core of the armed opposition were radical islamists funded by the Gulf. I am pretty certain both I and many others said as much on this forum at the time. Books worth of text was produced about how Robert Fisk must have sold his soul to Bashar al-Assad for saying as much. Jihadist groups becoming the predominant militant force in Syria and Robert Fisk selling his soul to the regime are not mutually exclusive things.
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Nov 26, 2015 20:25
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Our Gulf allies directly support ISIS as well. It is pretty ridiculous and obvious what has been going on here and the fact that it is now getting major play only after Putin has brought it up numerous times makes it even more ridiculous.
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Nov 26, 2015 20:32
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Volkerball posted:Jihadist groups becoming the predominant militant force in Syria and Robert Fisk selling his soul to the regime are not mutually exclusive things. I truly do not understand this critique of Fisk. He used to compare Bashar to Hitler and tell everyone that he was raping his people. The main issue people seemed to have at the time was that he also said the armed opposition was full of cold-blooded murderers, apparently only Syrian regime propaganda. I won't devolve this into another Fisk discussion but if you have a few good argument here please share.
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Nov 26, 2015 20:34
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Who would have thought that Fisk could sniff out the worst possible person to side with in this war out of so many choices?
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Nov 26, 2015 20:35
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https://youtu.be/1tj_8RKLYeI?t=450
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Nov 26, 2015 20:35
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Svartvit posted:Anyone who was alive in 2012 should have known that the hard core of the armed opposition were radical islamists funded by the Gulf. I am pretty certain both I and many others said as much on this forum at the time. Books worth of text was produced about how Robert Fisk must have sold his soul to Bashar al-Assad for saying as much. The news here isn't that the Gulf, the Saudis (or even Turkey) funded radical Islamists. Everyone knows that, and coincidentally you are hearing about it deafeningly loud in the Western media these days. The real news is that the motherfucking US might have aided Al Qaeda in Iraq (aka the good chaps you now call ISIS) as a counterweight to Assad and Iran's influence in the region. The Gulf and Turkey were not acting as "rogue allies;" they were acting in clear supervision and awareness from the NATO, at the very least. fspades fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Nov 26, 2015 |
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Nov 26, 2015 20:39
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fspades posted:The news here isn't that the Gulf, the Saudis (or even Turkey) funded radical Islamists. Everyone knows that, and coincidentally you are hearing about it deafeningly loud in the Western media these days. The real news is that the motherfucking US might have aided Al Qaeda in Iraq (aka the good chaps you now call ISIS) as a counterweight to Assad and Iran's influence in the region. The Gulf and Turkey were not acting as "rogue allies," they were acting in clear supervision and awareness from the NATO, at the very least. There is no MIGHT to this. The US did aid the Al-Nusra front(Al'Qaeda in Syria). There is no dispute.
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Nov 26, 2015 20:43
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