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He could but where would they go? The ones that we still have are because no other countries will take them. Issuing a pardon is one thing when it's a non-violent American citizen but I really really doubt he'd just let them go. Especially because he would have threatened it by now if it were an option for him.
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Nov 27, 2015 10:48
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Necc0 posted:He could but where would they go? The ones that we still have are because no other countries will take them. Issuing a pardon is one thing when it's a non-violent American citizen but I really really doubt he'd just let them go. Especially because he would have threatened it by now if it were an option for him.
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Nov 27, 2015 17:59
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Yeah to me that's a pretty good signal that Guantanamo won't be closed by the end of his term.
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Nov 27, 2015 18:17
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It depends on if the President has sufficient Executive gently caress You power to just give Guantanamo back to Cuba. Gotta transfer everything then, Congress.
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Nov 27, 2015 20:08
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Gyges posted:It depends on if the President has sufficient Executive gently caress You power to just give Guantanamo back to Cuba. Gotta transfer everything then, Congress. If he had a plan to close it down on his own there's no way he wouldn't have threatened that option by now. Even if he did I sincerely doubt he'd do it during an election year. That'd be one hell of a poison pill for the democrats. Also GITMO17 has had zero volume for the past two days which is really surprising to me. Still a good buy imo if you're willing to wait it out. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 16:24 on Nov 28, 2015 |
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Nov 28, 2015 16:21
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NO on government shutting down december 14th is free money right? They are 90 cents a share right now. Or should I get some cheap YES and grab that quick profit a few days beforehand?
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Nov 28, 2015 16:43
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It could swing more, but I doubt it. Its slowly been creeping creeping up since it opened. I should have bought more.
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Nov 28, 2015 18:04
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Put in an order for Christie NO in RNOM. My reasoning is he has the most to lose once the market is linked and he's riding a big New Hampshire union endorsement this weekend so his prices are moving in his direction.
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Nov 29, 2015 17:18
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nachos posted:NO on government shutting down december 14th is free money right? They are 90 cents a share right now. Or should I get some cheap YES and grab that quick profit a few days beforehand? I bought 25 NO at 90 with the thought that speaker Ryan isn't going to crash the government as his first act. It seems that YES is up to 17 right now and there is a big gap between the 2. Is there something causing this other than a weird fluctuation?
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Nov 29, 2015 18:54
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Cruz Yes in Iowa looking pretty overvalued two days before linking takes effect. My opinion on Iowa is that we won't know who will win until the last minute, if at all. Disosure: picked up 300 Cruz No shares there.
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Nov 30, 2015 01:20
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I agree that 44 cents for him to win there is wildly overpriced. Personally I don't have a horse in that race (yet) because of the state's history of gravitating toward a candidate a week or two beforehand. Bush YES in RNOM lost 33% of its value today and it doesn't seem to be associated with anything in the news. Probably things evening out before the linking. If you're one of the few people who think he still has a chance you should free up some funds to buy in after the market link on 01 Dec.
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Nov 30, 2015 01:37
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What is this market link everyone's referencing?
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Nov 30, 2015 03:11
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bawfuls posted:What is this market link everyone's referencing?
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Nov 30, 2015 03:31
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That's strange, because the Bush dropout YES just took a downturn. Must have been one player getting out.
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Nov 30, 2015 04:22
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RNOM linking is coming tomorrow and the Yes's collectively add up to 138%. They will always add up to over 100% even after linking because there are so many candidates, real and joke ones (like Palin) and no one can go under 1%. 138% is down a lot from where it was in anticipation of this move, but NO is still collectively undervalued and should broadly yield a safe 10-15% over the next week. Ditto USPREZ which collectively adds up to 161% and is converting on Dec 3 There will be a lot of money sloshing around as all the monthly polling contracts pay out and linking frees up money.
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Nov 30, 2015 18:08
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Zeta Taskforce posted:RNOM linking is coming tomorrow and the Yes's collectively add up to 138%. They will always add up to over 100% even after linking because there are so many candidates, real and joke ones (like Palin) and no one can go under 1%. 138% is down a lot from where it was in anticipation of this move, but NO is still collectively undervalued and should broadly yield a safe 10-15% over the next week. Ditto USPREZ which collectively adds up to 161% and is converting on Dec 3 They can drop below 1% to 'none available' which I consider effectively zero in a high-volume market such as RNOM
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Nov 30, 2015 18:14
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Someone upended the Caitlyn Jenner RNC market last night. Insider or idiot? Edit: Maybe somebody just got drunk. platzapS has issued a correction as of 18:34 on Nov 30, 2015 |
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Nov 30, 2015 18:31
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platzapS posted:Someone upended the Caitlyn Jenner RNC market last night. Insider or idiot? lmao props to whoever got lucky and was able to take advantage of these 
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Nov 30, 2015 18:40
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Necc0 posted:They can drop below 1% to 'none available' which I consider effectively zero in a high-volume market such as RNOM True enough, but when I calculated the 138% and 161% I assigned all these 'none available' the listed last trade amount. Take these out and the Yes will probably be somewhere like 128% and 145% respectively.
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Nov 30, 2015 18:49
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I just bought 300 shares of Rick Perry YES. Penny stocks own
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Nov 30, 2015 20:08
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New poll markets!
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Nov 30, 2015 23:11
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Aliquid posted:I just bought 300 shares of Rick Perry YES. Penny stocks own Well, I'm sure someone on the no side is happy that you're stoked about throwing away three bucks.
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Dec 1, 2015 02:27
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Anyone know why these two prices are so wildly different? https://www.predictit.org/Contract/877/Will-Bernie-Sanders-win-the-2016-New-Hampshire-Democratic-presidential-primary#data https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1563/Will-Bernie-Sanders-win-any-Democratic-primaries-or-caucuses#data I was under the impression that if Bernie can't win NH, he can't win anywhere.
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Dec 1, 2015 04:51
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No matter what happens, we do still have to let Vermont vote. Edit: 81 cents is a steal even if you do have to wait all the way to March for it to pay off.
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Dec 1, 2015 05:00
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Gyges posted:No matter what happens, we do still have to let Vermont vote. Sanders could easily drop out before Vermont if he lost every state up to that point. Not that your point is invalid.
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Dec 1, 2015 06:07
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If Sanders is in for South Carolina, there's no way he doesn't wait another 3 days for Super Tuesday before dropping out. And with a two person race, I don't see any reason for him to drop out before South Carolina at the earliest anyway.
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Dec 1, 2015 13:15
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RNom is being linked as we speak 
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Dec 1, 2015 14:36
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I loving love this linking on the huge markets like RNOM. I've got $50 in and as long as Mitt Romney isn't the nominee I'm making $200 - $400.
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Dec 1, 2015 16:09
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Gah I bought into the TPP market without realizing the close date was March 31st  Just bailed and fortunately didn't lose that much money. Dumb dumb dumb
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Dec 1, 2015 16:59
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Gyges posted:I loving love this linking on the huge markets like RNOM. I've got $50 in and as long as Mitt Romney isn't the nominee I'm making $200 - $400. Yeah I got almost all of my arbitration money back so now I'm sitting pretty with over $800 with no clue what to do with it. Debating pulling it out or using it to squeeze out sure bets for a year ninja: I think I'm gonna send an email to PredictIt and ask for a withdrawal fee waiver since most of this money was placed in before they made any noise about the linked contracts. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 17:08 on Dec 1, 2015 |
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Dec 1, 2015 17:04
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Gyges posted:If Sanders is in for South Carolina, there's no way he doesn't wait another 3 days for Super Tuesday before dropping out. And with a two person race, I don't see any reason for him to drop out before South Carolina at the earliest anyway. If he doesn't win NH he should probably just end his run right then because it's over as a practical matter.
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Dec 1, 2015 17:09
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Necc0 posted:Gah I bought into the TPP market without realizing the close date was March 31st Is there a reason that this is a particularly bad bet? I bought 25 shares @ 40 and obviously I'm way down but I intended to just buy and hold. Is there some specific threat to this legislation?
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Dec 1, 2015 17:10
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EngineerSean posted:Is there a reason that this is a particularly bad bet? I bought 25 shares @ 40 and obviously I'm way down but I intended to just buy and hold. Is there some specific threat to this legislation? The legislation itself is safe but there's a metric butt-load of review it has to go through before it will come anywhere close to being voted on. The March 31st date is very optimistic when in all likelihood it'll pass sometime in the summer or even be pushed back to Obama's lame-duck session.
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Dec 1, 2015 17:20
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Vox Nihili posted:If he doesn't win NH he should probably just end his run right then because it's over as a practical matter. For all practical purposes its already over and I say that as a small donation Bernie supporter. If his goal is to provide a liberal counterweight to the party and to have a national discussion that otherwise wouldn't happen about income inequality, Wall Street greed, and a corrupt campaign finance system, then he won't end his run until June. Bernie winning any primaries is free money if you are patient. No matter what happens he's going to win Vermont in a landslide. I grew up in Vermont. Vermonters love Bernie. They are proud that their little state produced someone who is capturing the spotlight. Even my grumpy, old, racist, sexist, gun totting, Hillary hating dad loves Bernie. This is an old poll, but Bernie is tied with Trump and Carson among Vermont REPUBLICANS. http://www.wcax.com/story/30064232/poll-bernie-sanders-popular-in-vt-even-among-republicans
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Dec 1, 2015 18:02
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Rubio and Cruz poll markets are pushing really hard toward yes despite the lack of any recent polling data. I think the media narrative is driving this more than anything. Usual disclosure that poll markets are speculative and bad, of course, but I'm already in on these.
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Dec 1, 2015 18:40
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Reminder that the 2016 Presidential winner market gets linked Wednesday. The number of people to buy shares against makes the Republican Nomination market look small.
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Dec 1, 2015 19:57
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Gyges posted:Reminder that the 2016 Presidential winner market gets linked Wednesday. The number of people to buy shares against makes the Republican Nomination market look small.
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Dec 1, 2015 20:08
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Peachstapler posted:I'm assuming this is another buy NO situation? Because that turned out pretty well for folks in RNOM, myself included. It looks like the opportunity has passed. The collective value of YES is down 29% today.
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Dec 1, 2015 20:13
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Gyges posted:I loving love this linking on the huge markets like RNOM. I've got $50 in and as long as Mitt Romney isn't the nominee I'm making $200 - $400. Are you betting "YES" on every candidate, or something else?
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Dec 1, 2015 20:17
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Zeta Taskforce posted:It looks like the opportunity has passed. The collective value of YES is down 29% today. railroad terror posted:Are you betting "YES" on every candidate, or something else?
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Dec 1, 2015 20:23
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