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Evil Fluffy posted:Aside from Ergodan ordering a full scale invasion to preempt any sort of Kurdistan from being formed, what would be the downside to the Kurds essentially beating Daesh in to the ground and coming out as essentially the leading power in that area? Everyone else loving loathes the Kurds, so if they extend too far into areas where other ethnicities have a majority, they'd have a nightmare of an insurgency on their hands, likely backed by every other power in the region terrified of an independent Kurdistan encouraging their own Kurds to secede. Some of that will happen anyway, but it's in everyone's interests, including theirs, for them not to overstretch and make the problem way worse.
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Dec 3, 2015 10:21
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It's good to know there is one cause that can reunite everyone under a common banner in the war-torn Middle East:The US Air Force, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Syrian Arab Army together posted:Die you stupid French doctors! Die! STOP HEALING PEOPLE I HATE YOU!
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Dec 3, 2015 10:37
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Everybody relax,  Britain which operates like 6 of, at most the best planes, the most accurate missiles (which, owing to superior British engineering, are physically incapable of harming a civilian), and the handsomest and most virile pilots, is coming to save the Middle East, yet again. 
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Dec 3, 2015 10:49
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Zeroisanumber posted:The IAEA has concluded that Iran was working on a nuke until at least 2009 and possibly longer I mean the whole assumption underlying the nuclear deal is that Iran is ready to build a bomb today if they had enough enriched uranium, kind of like Japan. But there's a real value in keeping their virtual bomb virtual instead of real. For example, North Korea was straight up extorting us not to build a bomb, and then we decided to call their bluff, and they built a bomb. But even ~super duper  kcraayyeeizziiii!!!!!!!~ lunatic Kim Jong Il gave his 90 days notice. It is just truly bizarre that, under the guise of opposing an Iranian nuclear weapon, there's a whole segment of the political spectrum actively working to promote Iranian nuclear armament.
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Dec 3, 2015 11:42
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQhaLXGM3x8 Video of RUAF bombing ISIS oil facilities. In other words, granaries and water treatment plants. The second target might actually have something to do with oil though.
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Dec 3, 2015 11:44
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Oberleutnant posted:Everybody relax, thank you for everything you do, david cameron, including that thing with the dead pig
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Dec 3, 2015 12:39
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:A little bird told me Jarabulus. It is such an overwhelmingly important location that I'm sure it is. It overlaps both the Kurdish aims (connecting cantons) and coalition aims (cutting off the final border crossing to Turkey) and it has been telegraphed/announced in the past. We'll have to see how Turkey responds but I doubt Russia, Assad, etc. are going to care.
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Dec 3, 2015 13:09
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:A little bird told me Jarabulus.  If US forces helped Kurds go east of the Euphrates, jesus.
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Dec 3, 2015 13:22
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Motion to rename the thread from Despair to Very Cautious Optimism.
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Dec 3, 2015 13:23
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The US finds ways to gently caress up literally everything, don't get your hopes up yet
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Dec 3, 2015 13:53
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Doctor Malaver posted:Motion to rename the thread from Despair to Very Cautious Optimism. Let's not get crazy here, despair sounds about right.
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Dec 3, 2015 14:21
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goose fleet posted:The US finds ways to gently caress up literally everything, don't get your hopes up yet American CAS will wipe out Kurdish forces attacking Jarabulus.
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Dec 3, 2015 14:44
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Doctor Malaver posted:Motion to rename the thread from Despair to Very Cautious Optimism. I don't see reason to by optimistic, but despair also isn't quite right. Maybe confusion?
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Dec 3, 2015 14:50
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Oberleutnant posted:Everybody relax, To be fair, the Brits were some of the coolest and calmest dudes I met in Iraq.
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Dec 3, 2015 15:18
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Count Roland posted:
Then we'd be de facto recognizing the inevitability of a Kurdish state (or autonomous Kurdish region) in northern Syria, yes.
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Dec 3, 2015 16:53
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Zeroisanumber posted:Then we'd be de facto recognizing the inevitability of a Kurdish state (or autonomous Kurdish region) in northern Syria, yes. Something like that yeah. I have a rather hard time believing the US is going to go that far.
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Dec 3, 2015 17:03
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Count Roland posted:Something like that yeah. I have a rather hard time believing the US is going to go that far. We wouldn't have if Erdogan had played ball and helped the rest of NATO crush Daesh from the outset instead of playing footsie with them like he did. In a way, his bumbling helped to midwife the alliance between the US and the Kurds.
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Dec 3, 2015 17:19
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Zeroisanumber posted:We wouldn't have if Erdogan had played ball and helped the rest of NATO crush Daesh from the outset instead of playing footsie with them like he did. In a way, his bumbling helped to midwife the alliance between the US and the Kurds. I mean I agree, but such a move would have some pretty dramatic and not necessarily predictable consequences. Turkey has repeatedly said that crossing to the east of the Euphrates is a "red line". If the YPG does this (unless there is another Kurdish group in a position to do so instead) it will invite a pretty big retaliation from Turkey. If the YPG has US forces along side them, then Turkey can't react in that way. But they'll do something, for sure. That something will put pressure on Kurds, and the US could find itself defending or supporting Kurds against Turkish aggression. As you say, that would be de facto recognizing Kurdish independence to some degree. But I can't imagine the US making this recognition du jure, not just because of Turkey but because of complexities in Syria, and the fact that until recently the US considered these groups to be socialist terrorists. Different Kurdish groups have a long history of being backed by a foreign power against another power, and each time the Kurds end up eating a lot of poo poo and the backing power leaves when convenient. This looks like a similar recipe.
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Dec 3, 2015 17:49
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Rotacixe posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQhaLXGM3x8 1st is likely a granary 2nd could be an oil facility of some type, but also looks like it could be a water treatment plant 3rd is a granary (and has been bombed previously by Russia as a "training camp") 4th is a water treatment facility Russia seems to simply be continuing Assad's campaign of deliberately destroying infrastructure and carrying out collective punishment of the civilian population.
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Dec 3, 2015 18:09
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Radio Prune posted:1st is likely a granary An army fights on its stomach. End ISIL's control over food, end its ability to fight.
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Dec 3, 2015 18:10
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RE: German Luftwaffe mission in Syria. MoD and General staff have decided that Turkey will only get severely censored reconaissance data so they don't use it to blow up the YPG or PKK.
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Dec 3, 2015 18:21
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Does Luftwaffe currently have any planes that would stay up in the air?
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Dec 3, 2015 18:26
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Nenonen posted:Does Luftwaffe currently have any planes that would stay up in the air? How long are we talking about here?
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Dec 3, 2015 18:27
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Nenonen posted:Does Luftwaffe currently have any planes that would stay up in the air? I know it's a joke but Tornados are still very good at what they do and Typhoons ain't nothing to scoff at (if not queening up a hangar).
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Dec 3, 2015 18:28
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my dad posted:How long are we talking about here? They have both the Typhoon and Tornado.
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Dec 3, 2015 18:29
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CommieGIR posted:They have both the Typhoon and Tornado. Cyclone for plan B?  I may have been making a joke.
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Dec 3, 2015 18:32
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But the SAR is in Germany so... they probably shouldn't fly over enemy territory, just in case.
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Dec 3, 2015 18:34
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my dad posted:Cyclone for plan B? I'm upset with you for it.
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Dec 3, 2015 18:39
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Count Roland posted:I mean I agree, but such a move would have some pretty dramatic and not necessarily predictable consequences. Turkey has repeatedly said that crossing to the east of the Euphrates is a "red line". If the YPG does this (unless there is another Kurdish group in a position to do so instead) it will invite a pretty big retaliation from Turkey. If the YPG has US forces along side them, then Turkey can't react in that way. But they'll do something, for sure. That something will put pressure on Kurds, and the US could find itself defending or supporting Kurds against Turkish aggression. As you say, that would be de facto recognizing Kurdish independence to some degree. Ultimately I feel that everyone implicitly knows that borders will have to be redrawn at this point, no matter how unpalatable. Can anyone sincerely imagine that all these now completely disparate groups will at some point in the next few years peacefully become neighbors again? Ultimately not one local group has the numbers to both overrun it's opponent, and then maintain what will be a highly unpopular pacification/repression scheme. From a US standpoint Kurds seem to be the only redeemable partners in the whole mess, and Turkey is simply making the whole situation worse for everyone involved, yet failing to offer any method of placation. Kurdistan would be a simple drive down the road if for some reason people feel that the nukes in Turkey are still a strategic necessity, and the Bosporus does not appear to be the ace it once was. The Black Sea fleet is much to small to make itself much more than a nuisance in any sort of shooting scenario with Nato in the Mediterranean, and most future development appears to be focusing on the Arctic. If they are some how emboldened to invade Egypt, or Libya or as a result why not let them? Better to secure an ally that is agreeable, friendly, reliable, and doesn't poison our reputation like so many of our traditional allies in the area.
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Dec 3, 2015 18:50
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The US committed itself to the unity and territorial integrity of Syria at Vienna, I don't see them changing their mind.
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Dec 3, 2015 18:58
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That's a shame, Kurdistan would be a hot tourist destination.
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Dec 3, 2015 19:04
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The joke about the Luftwaffe is that there was a report early this year or last that basically said due to budget cuts and what not most of their fleet was un-airworthy. I think they only had one attack helicopter and a handful of jets that could actually be used. Phone posting so I don't have the link readily available.
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Dec 3, 2015 19:08
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If the US wanted to never deal with Erdogan again they could simply remove the PKK from their terrorist watchlist. Arranging the following snap elections and funeral might be dicey though.
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Dec 3, 2015 19:11
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BadOptics posted:The joke about the Luftwaffe is that there was a report early this year or last that basically said due to budget cuts and what not most of their fleet was un-airworthy. I think they only had one attack helicopter and a handful of jets that could actually be used. Phone posting so I don't have the link readily available. They can replace their non-working planes with some cheap Nimbus 2000.
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Dec 3, 2015 19:13
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FaustianQ posted:If the US wanted to never deal with Erdogan again they could simply remove the PKK from their terrorist watchlist. Arranging the following snap elections and funeral might be dicey though. Snap elections probably wouldn't happen, I think Biden would manage just fine for a year until Hillary takes over
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Dec 3, 2015 19:18
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Turkey has announced that they have their own evidence that shows that Russia has been purchasing ISIS' oil. All this tension is killing me, Putin and Erdogan just need to gently caress and get it over with already.
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Dec 3, 2015 19:38
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CommieGIR posted:They have both the Typhoon and Tornado. I like how Germany has so few operational airplanes that they refer to them as "The Typhoon" and "The Tornado". "Which one are you going to fly, Hans? I think I'll fly the Tornado. Oh, sorry, Karl already took that one."
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Dec 3, 2015 20:09
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kustomkarkommando posted:The US committed itself to the unity and territorial integrity of Syria at Vienna, I don't see them changing their mind. Britain also once committed themselves to the territorial integrity of Poland. How'd that work out? Evolving facts on the ground change diplomatic commitments.
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Dec 3, 2015 20:10
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My Imaginary GF posted:Britain also once committed themselves to the territorial integrity of Poland. How'd that work out? Evolving facts on the ground change diplomatic commitments. The US changing their mind about the territorial integrity of Syria after committing themselves to it at international talks would surely amuse Russia
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Dec 3, 2015 20:12
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Bait and Swatch posted:Putin and Erdogan just need to gently caress and get it over with already.
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Dec 3, 2015 20:13
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