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railroad terror posted:Are you betting "YES" on every candidate, or something else? Romney No is my biggest holding, so if he wins the nomination I get $0. Edit: If Paul Ryan wins I lose all but 90 cents of my $46 in the market. If Carly wins I lose $39. Anyone else I make money. Gyges has issued a correction as of 22:58 on Dec 1, 2015 |
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Dec 1, 2015 22:49
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I bet NO on anyone but Trump or Cruz getting the nomination. Maybe there's a chance it'll be Rubio but I think the market has him heavily overvalued right now due to the media pushing him so hard. Like others, I have a bunch of cash from the linking and I'm not sure what to do with it. I notice I tend to immediately place new bets with my winnings, which has burned me a few times (luckily I won enough on Biden that I'm still up overall). Maybe I'll just sit on it a while.
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Dec 1, 2015 23:51
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Cruz and Rubio are the two most likely to get the nomination. We'll have to wait until after at least Iowa before we can put a value on the trumpification of the vote, but I still have a whole pack of doubts about his support actually carrying over to the voting booth.
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Dec 2, 2015 00:56
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I put all my cash from the linking into USPREZ16 which is going to be linked on December 3. NOs all shot up today so I think pretty much everyone did the same thing. I managed to get in early enough to ride most of the increase.
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Dec 2, 2015 01:01
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Gyges posted:No matter what happens, we do still have to let Vermont vote. YES is now down to 75%. This is now by far my biggest holding. The contract might as well be "Does Bernie Sanders win Vermont?". Which he is 100% guaranteed to do. The poll I linked to earlier had him leading Hillary 65% to 14%. Another bit of trivia. Howard Dean won the 2004 Vermont Democratic primary by 58% to John Kerry's 34%. This was 2 weeks AFTER he dropped out. I have never seen such guaranteed money. Edit: Need to properly source my facts http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/VT/ Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 04:11 on Dec 2, 2015 |
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Dec 2, 2015 03:59
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Keep in mind he could also drop out but with that Dean story I'm not sure if that would even matter. He'll probably ride it out I don't see why he wouldn't
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Dec 2, 2015 04:07
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The only wrinkle is if there's a sentence lurking in the rules that prevents Vermont from counting if Bernie drops out first. Of course all my money is sitting in the 2016 winner market, so I can't buy up until Thursday.
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Dec 2, 2015 04:08
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Gyges posted:The only wrinkle is if there's a sentence lurking in the rules that prevents Vermont from counting if Bernie drops out first. I don't see such a clause quote:On or before June 30, 2016, Bernie Sanders shall win a plurality or majority of the votes cast in the Democratic presidential primary or caucus of at least one state or delegate-awarding U.S. territory, according to that state or territory's board of elections, secretary of state, state Democratic party, or other applicable reporting body.
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Dec 2, 2015 04:15
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Just popping in to say that linked markets are the poo poo
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Dec 2, 2015 05:57
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There are a few new markets this morning, I don't think the email's gone out yet but here they are:
Got in on one...I gobbled up Christie YES below 50.
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Dec 2, 2015 19:27
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Peachstapler posted:
Can someone help me out with this one? Why that date in particular?
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Dec 2, 2015 19:31
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Peachstapler posted:There are a few new markets this morning, I don't think the email's gone out yet but here they are: Christie is polling at 2.5%. 3% is a possibility, heck 0.5% is a rounding error. But I wouldn't pay more than 35 cents for either YES or NO at this point. Ditto for Kasich.
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Dec 2, 2015 19:41
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The media has been giving him some attention with his recent endorsements so I could see him rising up a bit. Whether or not it will stick for the whole month is entirely something else. Also gently caress betting on polls.
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Dec 2, 2015 19:47
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Christie is polling at 2.5%. 3% is a possibility, heck 0.5% is a rounding error. But I wouldn't pay more than 35 cents for either YES or NO at this point. Ditto for Kasich. Necc0 posted:The media has been giving him some attention with his recent endorsements so I could see him rising up a bit. Whether or not it will stick for the whole month is entirely something else. Also gently caress betting on polls.
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Dec 2, 2015 19:57
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Yall think they'll ever start linking across markets? There's no reason why Jeb! winning the nomination and Jeb! winning the Presidency should be considered independent events. e: also stop loss orders would be sweet Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 20:09 on Dec 2, 2015 |
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Dec 2, 2015 20:05
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Shear Modulus posted:Yall think they'll ever start linking across markets? There's no reason why Jeb! winning the nomination and Jeb! winning the Presidency should be considered independent events. They aren't based on the same fundamental logical event so linking is essentially impossible.
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Dec 2, 2015 20:16
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Necc0 posted:Can someone help me out with this one? Why that date in particular? quote:Today's Volume: 2
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Dec 2, 2015 20:16
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Necc0 posted:Can someone help me out with this one? Why that date in particular? The current travel alert expires on Feb 24. So it's a bet on whether the current travel alert will be extended or a new one will be announced.
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Dec 2, 2015 21:56
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Shear Modulus posted:The current travel alert expires on Feb 24. Gotcha. Thanks
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Dec 2, 2015 22:24
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Bush dropping out before Iowa has really lost a lot of ground. I think YES is a good buy at .14, because imo there will be calls to consolidate behind Rubio as the anti-Trump in January.
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Dec 3, 2015 01:49
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Aliquid posted:Bush dropping out before Iowa has really lost a lot of ground. I think YES is a good buy at .14, because imo there will be calls to consolidate behind Rubio as the anti-Trump in January. I jumped in too early at ~20/share but yeah I still believe it's gotta go up at some point because lol Jeb!
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Dec 3, 2015 01:58
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Aliquid posted:Bush dropping out before Iowa has really lost a lot of ground. I think YES is a good buy at .14, because imo there will be calls to consolidate behind Rubio as the anti-Trump in January. My basis in NO is 79 so seeing it trade up into the mid to upper 80's is great for me. No one is going to force Jeb! out prior to the first vote being cast. He will face pressure to do so if he fails to get out of the single digits in the early races and if he is battling people like Christie and Paul for 4th or 5th. But there is no chance of him dropping out before then. If this hits 90 this week I'm selling, but I won't be buying YES at any price
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Dec 3, 2015 02:09
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I won't be buying YES at any price
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Dec 3, 2015 02:22
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Jeb absolutely will not drop out before the opening four states are over. He'll probably ride it all the way to super Tuesday.
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Dec 3, 2015 02:59
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That's not my reasoning. I think there will be a GOP media narrative to consolidate behind a single candidate before Iowa, and I'll sell a week or so out. I agree Bush stays in.
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Dec 3, 2015 03:03
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If Bush donors flee to Rubio I don't see him staying in. He's supposed to show them some kind of results and so far there's been nothing.
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Dec 3, 2015 03:28
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Most ad blitzes only last for a week or two in the voters' consciousness and he's already got full alpha-strikes reserved. He'll cut his campaign to the bone before letting those fizzle
Necc0 has issued a correction as of 04:14 on Dec 3, 2015 |
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Dec 3, 2015 04:07
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nachos posted:If Bush donors flee to Rubio I don't see him staying in. He's supposed to show them some kind of results and so far there's been nothing. True enough, but technically until Iowa happens there is no possible way for him to show or not show them results. Until then he can say that the only poll that matters is the binding one where they add up the votes. His donors can't ask him to give back 10 million of cash that he has on hand. He is not dropping out before Iowa
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Dec 3, 2015 04:12
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nachos posted:If Bush donors flee to Rubio I don't see him staying in. He's supposed to show them some kind of results and so far there's been nothing. Dropping out before any voting takes place is too shameful even for Bush to do.
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Dec 3, 2015 04:15
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USPREZ16 was linked this morning.
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Dec 3, 2015 16:39
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Peachstapler posted:USPREZ16 was linked this morning. Are there any more markets that need to be linked or does this mean they've completed the switchover? e: FUN FACT: The only USPREZ16 contracts you can sell anymore are Clinton, Rubio, Trump, Cruz, Sanders, Bush, Christie, and Carson. platzapS has issued a correction as of 18:52 on Dec 3, 2015 |
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Dec 3, 2015 18:49
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Looks like Christie is sucking up Jeb's remaining strength in NH. Probably too late to profit on the initial market bump, though
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Dec 3, 2015 18:59
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Looks like the Trump indy run market that closes end of month is pretty much free money now, mid-90c for No.
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Dec 3, 2015 23:46
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Vox Nihili posted:Looks like the Trump indy run market that closes end of month is pretty much free money now, mid-90c for No. Oh good call. edit: No is up to $.97 :\
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Dec 4, 2015 02:56
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Could place a max buy at 95c and have the top offer. I maxed at 96c myself. Not going to be able to squeeze out a ton of money, but it's difficult to imagine a safer market.
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Dec 4, 2015 09:39
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Anyone else gambling a bit on some of the Repub Nomination YES bets now that the market is linked? For me, I'm gambling the nomination is going to come down to one of the following people: Rubio Cruz Christie Kasich I have a good amount of shares of Cruz @ 23 (he's at 26 now, considering getting out and buying back in), Christie at 6, and Kasich at 3. I'm wary about the Rubio shares I do own because I feel like he's still overvalued at 40. I don't believe The Donald has any real shot at the delegates necessary to win, and if there's a "comeback kid" moment in New Hampshire, I feel like it will belong to either Christie or Kasich.
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Dec 4, 2015 15:58
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railroad terror posted:Anyone else gambling a bit on some of the Repub Nomination YES bets now that the market is linked? For the ones that it is possible to buy NO, I have done so for everyone except Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Romney. I had some Rubio NO at a basis of 50 and sold them at 60. I'm thinking of buying Cruz YES since he seems like he is the most palatable of the wingnut faction to the establishment, but I've been burned betting against Trump and I'm not doing it here. Romney probably won't be the nominee, but I give it more than a 1% chance.
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Dec 4, 2015 16:18
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Republican brokered convention is free money too.
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Dec 4, 2015 16:56
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railroad terror posted:Anyone else gambling a bit on some of the Repub Nomination YES bets now that the market is linked? NH is looking better and better for Christie. I think Cruz is overpriced right now at 26, I'm hoping for a Christie bump at some point to eat into Cruz. If Cruz drops below 20, hopefully below 15, I'll load up on him.
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Dec 4, 2015 17:04
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Agree with everything you said. I'd probably invest on Christie in NH and short it, not confident he's going to prevail there yet as he just started his uptrend.District Selectman posted:Republican brokered convention is free money too. I'm not counting Trump, because he's Trump.
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Dec 4, 2015 17:06
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