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I have some Brokered Convention YES shares. I believe they'll take a bounce near Iowa, where I'll sell. EDIT https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1564/Will-a-US-State-Dept-worldwide-travel-alert-be-in-effect-on-February-25%2c-2016#data This seems way undervalued.
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Dec 4, 2015 17:13
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Aliquid posted:I have some Brokered Convention YES shares. I believe they'll take a bounce near Iowa, where I'll sell. Yes or No? I'm leaning towards Yes because I sincerely doubt ISIS is going to be magically rolled up within the next few months but I have no idea what goes into issuing these alerts.
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Dec 4, 2015 17:37
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Necc0 posted:Yes or No? I'm leaning towards Yes because I sincerely doubt ISIS is going to be magically rolled up within the next few months but I have no idea what goes into issuing these alerts.
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Dec 4, 2015 17:40
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Peachstapler posted:Terrorism events, terrorism chatter, terrorism terrorism. This. I've spent a lot of time overseas and if there's one constant to life outside the US, it's incessant State Department warning emails. YES is only around .44 and I fully expect it to resolve.
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Dec 4, 2015 18:04
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Jeb! @ 5% end of month just crashed with the CNN poll that came out this morning. Down to the low 30's. I did buy a small amount in the 60's thinking, seriously, how low can he go? At least 5% o Republican voters have to be old money moderates from good blue blooded families. I'm probably a sucker for punishment, but I'm going to see if I can pick up some more YES in the mid 20's. Seem's like a good/reward, but yeah, I know, we are talking about Jeb! here. Either way it will remain a small bet, under 3% of my portfolio. But someone stop me before I lose more on Jeb!
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Dec 4, 2015 18:04
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Jeb Dropout YES is my single biggest market. It's even going down, get some for .10! Romney Nominee YES is down to .01, insane. That's a penny stock worth buying imo In fact, I would track Romney YES equally to Brokered Convention YES, since he's by far the most likely compromise candidate.
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Dec 4, 2015 18:06
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Aliquid posted:Jeb Dropout YES is my single biggest market. It's even going down, get some for .10!  well someone just bought the poo poo out of that
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Dec 4, 2015 18:09
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Super dark horse alert: Graham is literally over 500:1 on Betfair. I think there's a very good chance he bounces a few points as a result of the media attention from the speech, especially if he gets a good talk show slot or two. Probably even odds of him going to 100:1 or higher (this tip does not apply to PredictIt since you guys are stuck with your 1c minimum.) Less dark horsey - Cruz is now at 7:1 on Betfair and the chance of him going to 4-5:1 in the next month is virtually 100%. With Jeb! continuing to fade the chance of a Rubio v. Cruz HU showdown are spiking hard. Looking at PredictIt, you guys are really getting screwed. Your prices are so far off what those of us outside the US can get  If this was for serious volume I'd have to arb it but ehh.
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Dec 4, 2015 18:38
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Aliquid posted:
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Dec 4, 2015 19:25
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Adar posted:Super dark horse alert: Graham is literally over 500:1 on Betfair. I think there's a very good chance he bounces a few points as a result of the media attention from the speech, especially if he gets a good talk show slot or two. Probably even odds of him going to 100:1 or higher (this tip does not apply to PredictIt since you guys are stuck with your 1c minimum.) Uhhhh mismatched prices are an opportunity, not "getting screwed." Unless you mean screwed due to caps, but I would argue the caps give me more opportunities because there isn't a ton of arbitration eating up my opportunities. Graham is not going to improve. You're probably right on Cruz.
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Dec 4, 2015 20:04
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Aliquid posted:Jeb Dropout YES is my single biggest market. It's even going down, get some for .10! I hate to be the guy, but this is really bad advice. The most likely choice in a brokered convention is someone who already receieved a huge plurality of popular support. An outside compromise candidate is an extreme and unlikely last resort that alienates voters.
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Dec 4, 2015 20:23
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Vox Nihili posted:Uhhhh mismatched prices are an opportunity, not "getting screwed." Unless you mean screwed due to caps, but I would argue the caps give me more opportunities because there isn't a ton of arbitration eating up my opportunities. You only get to exploit your own side and the mismatch is such that all the great bets are on this end.
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Dec 4, 2015 21:10
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Adar posted:You only get to exploit your own side and the mismatch is such that all the great bets are on this end. You think so? I think the best place to be is where people (and their wagers) are farthest from reality, and PredictIt has been pretty solid for that. Perhaps less so by the day, but still plenty of delusional folks willing to put up bets.
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Dec 5, 2015 05:29
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The delusional bets haven't even started yet. Wait till we get closer to the election and people start to get emotional about it.
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Dec 5, 2015 07:14
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Vox Nihili posted:You think so? I think the best place to be is where people (and their wagers) are farthest from reality, and PredictIt has been pretty solid for that. Perhaps less so by the day, but still plenty of delusional folks willing to put up bets. There's been a lot of convergence this week but even after all of it Cruz, soon to be the hot stock of the month, is at 24 on PI and 14 on Betfair.
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Dec 5, 2015 10:23
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A bunch of new markets this morning, mostly playing off Super Tuesday events:
If the Bernie fans are out in full force this morning, be sure to get your Clinton bets in if you spot something low.
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Dec 5, 2015 14:43
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Peachstapler posted:A bunch of new markets this morning, mostly playing off Super Tuesday events: The Hillary fans can be just as insane. Or maybe its Hillary group think that she is inevitable EVERYWHERE. I managed to buy some Bernie winning Vermont at 70. Just wish there enough people out there who will allow me to max out this contract at that price.
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Dec 5, 2015 17:24
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The Hillary fans can be just as insane. Or maybe its Hillary group think that she is inevitable EVERYWHERE. I managed to buy some Bernie winning Vermont at 70. Just wish there enough people out there who will allow me to max out this contract at that price.
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Dec 5, 2015 17:34
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Peachstapler posted:That's very shaky ground. The most recent polling out of Vermont was Castleton in October which had Clinton only 6 points under Sanders (double her support there from their previous poll). Where is this poll? I can't seem to find it. Not saying you're wrong, it just contradicts what it feels like on the ground in Vermont. The most recent poll I see is on marijuana legalization. The most recent presidential one shows Bernie with a 35 point lead over Clinton. http://www.castleton.edu/about-castleton/the-castleton-polling-institute/poll-results/
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Dec 5, 2015 17:55
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Where is this poll? I can't seem to find it. Not saying you're wrong, it just contradicts what it feels like on the ground in Vermont. The most recent poll I see is on marijuana legalization. The most recent presidential one shows Bernie with a 35 point lead over Clinton.
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Dec 5, 2015 18:20
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Didn't someone here say earlier that Dean won the 2004 nom in Vt after dropping out?
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Dec 5, 2015 18:23
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fronz posted:Didn't someone here say earlier that Dean won the 2004 nom in Vt after dropping out? Yes. He dropped out on February 18, but won Vermont on March 2. Edwards wasn’t on the ballot, though, which helped.
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Dec 5, 2015 18:28
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fronz posted:Didn't someone here say earlier that Dean won the 2004 nom in Vt after dropping out? http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/VT/ Pretty decent turnout for an election with such low stakes too. It is pure going out in the middle of the winter to support a local hero.
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Dec 5, 2015 19:19
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Bernie could literally die today and he'd still win Vermont.
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Dec 5, 2015 19:21
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Quite honestly I'd be less surprised by Clinton winning Texas in the general than Bernie losing Vermont in the primary.
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Dec 5, 2015 22:21
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Does anyone have any strong feelings about Dilma Rousseff remaining president of Brazil through the end of the year? I know she is deeply unpopular and it seems like a matter of time before she is impeached, but for a long time it seemed to be on the back burner. I never had that much invested, but I sold my 25 shares at 97 cents last month. Lately there has been a lot more action politically and her days are looking more numbered. But the days remaining in 2015 are also more numbered. Volume has gone from almost non-existent to low but steady. It's been bouncing from the upper 80's to mid 90's so pays more than any other year end expiring contract. But I know a lot less about Brazilian politics than I do Vermont politics. Is anyone playing with this one? https://www.predictit.org/Contract/683/Will-Dilma-Rousseff-remain-president-of-Brazil-through-year-end#data
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Dec 7, 2015 03:48
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Aliquid posted:Romney Nominee YES is down to .01, insane. That's a penny stock worth buying imo I love this market, by the way. Every month like clockwork someone bids his stock up to double digits and I make bank*  *pennies
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Dec 7, 2015 04:09
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For the Rahm market: is the DoJ investigation into the CPD only, or will it potentially (eventually) put the Eye of Sauron on him too?
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Dec 7, 2015 05:56
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Latest poll has Cruz leading in Iowa, and needless to say the PredictIt market has completely flipped its poo poo and is putting Cruz at 60% likelihood there 2 months out.
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Dec 7, 2015 19:57
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He's against corn subsidies too, so get ready to hear about that.
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Dec 7, 2015 20:29
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Vox Nihili posted:Latest poll has Cruz leading in Iowa, and needless to say the PredictIt market has completely flipped its poo poo and is putting Cruz at 60% likelihood there 2 months out. The trend is your friend and Cruz seems to be peaking at the right time. IDK. Iowa Republicans do love them some religion. 60% is probably fair. Don't know how to play this one, but I'm not going to bet against him.
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Dec 7, 2015 21:18
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The trend is your friend and Cruz seems to be peaking at the right time. IDK. Iowa Republicans do love them some religion. 60% is probably fair. Don't know how to play this one, but I'm not going to bet against him. I think he's peaking too early. He'll have to maintain this for two months, and the other candidates are just now kicking into full gear in the state. I think the "trend" is greatly overreaching at this point. We'll see how it goes. I'm buying No shares right now, anyway.
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Dec 7, 2015 21:35
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For anybody looking to make a quick turnaround, the government shutdown market closes in a week. It's selling at 95 cents each for NO right now, but it's worth keeping an eye on in case it goes down a bit as we get closer to the deadline.
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Dec 8, 2015 00:16
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Vox Nihili posted:I think he's peaking too early. He'll have to maintain this for two months, and the other candidates are just now kicking into full gear in the state. I think the "trend" is greatly overreaching at this point. It's also worth remembering that Iowa has no qualms about changing their mind on a dime and, through the power of he who walks behind the rows, elevating someone from last to first place within a week of the caucus. Edit: Is there any safety in buying No on Blatter's indictment by the end of the year? Gyges has issued a correction as of 02:51 on Dec 8, 2015 |
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Dec 8, 2015 02:41
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https://www.jebbush.com A masterful troll.
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Dec 8, 2015 03:43
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Tomato Burger posted:https://www.jebbush.com God drat. Is Jeb doing Trump's homework for him yet?
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Dec 8, 2015 03:47
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Someone please talk me out of buying up a bunch of shares of No on Blatter being indited by New Years Eve.
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Dec 8, 2015 05:12
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Gyges posted:Someone please talk me out of buying up a bunch of shares of No on Blatter being indited by New Years Eve. Well they just revealed some new big thing: http://www.foxsports.com/soccer/story/fbi-investigating-sepp-blatter-100m-bribes-scandal-isl-fifa-president-120615 Probably mostly safe due to the very short time left to run in the contract, but there's certainly some degree of risk. It isn't "free money" if that's what you're hoping for.
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Dec 8, 2015 05:17
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Anyone have a take on the CNN debate viewership market? https://www.predictit.org/Market/1734/What-will-the-average-viewership-be-for-the-CNN-debate The R debates so far have gone: Fox: 24M (aug) CNN: 23M (sept) CNBC: 14M (oct) Fox Business: 13.5M (nov) Meanwhile, D debates have been: CNN: 15.3M (oct) CBS: 8.5M (nov) very clear trend of people getting bored and the Dec 15th debate is closer to the holidays when people might be traveling. But being back on a major network, on a weeknight, with all the trumpmentum, the US/Paris attacks, etc, I'm torn. Already up on a handful of 22+ shares, but I might just try to take advantage of swings/inefficiencies since this feels really hard to predict.
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Dec 8, 2015 07:47
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thethreeman posted:very clear trend of people getting bored and the Dec 15th debate is closer to the holidays when people might be traveling. But being back on a major network, on a weeknight, with all the trumpmentum, the US/Paris attacks, etc, I'm torn. Already up on a handful of 22+ shares, but I might just try to take advantage of swings/inefficiencies since this feels really hard to predict. For what it's worth, I saw a TV commercial advertising the debate today. I don't think any of the others had much advertisement, did they?
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Dec 8, 2015 08:29
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