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Gyges posted:It's also worth remembering that Iowa has no qualms about changing their mind on a dime and, through the power of he who walks behind the rows, elevating someone from last to first place within a week of the caucus. That is true. Probably no one is worth putting a big bet on at this point in Iowa. I am pretty bullish on Cruz overall. I have 100 shares with a basis of 23 for him winning the entire nomination. It looks like the Sanders winning any primary market corrected. I hope everyone bought when it was 80. I was OK with holding onto everything for 3 months to make 20, but when 10 of that came in a week, not sure I want to hold on for 2.75 months to make the last 10.
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Dec 8, 2015 18:20
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I would be wary about Cruz. Historically, every GOP primary election we hear how things are different and everyone is ready to unite behind a True Conservative. Well this time things may really be difderent--or they might not be. Play the swings, not the holding game, basically.
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Dec 8, 2015 19:35
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*And if you do play the swings be sure to play the side you would believe to win anyways, just in case you get stuck.
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Dec 8, 2015 19:47
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Necc0 posted:*And if you do play the swings be sure to play the side you would believe to win anyways, just in case you get stuck. Truth. Even if he doesn't win Cruz will rack up lots of southern super Tuesday states. There are a bunch of NO Trump Indy runs at 92 right now. This should trade back up to the traditional 96-97 range by the end of the day. Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 20:07 on Dec 8, 2015 |
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Dec 8, 2015 19:57
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NO on Trump winning any primary is pretty cheap right now. I think you could make a lot playing the swing after he loses Iowa.
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Dec 8, 2015 20:00
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nachos posted:NO on Trump winning any primary is pretty cheap right now. I think you could make a lot playing the swing after he loses Iowa. IDN, YES looks pretty cheap to me at 67. Not saying that this is the absolute best price it will ever be, but it looks like really certain money. With 50+ races and the unpredictability of how the Republicans will do in thinly polled blue states with low GOP turnouts, and 6 solid months of Peak Trump predictions, NO looks highly speculative.
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Dec 8, 2015 20:07
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nachos posted:NO on Trump winning any primary is pretty cheap right now. I think you could make a lot playing the swing after he loses Iowa. Keep in mind that even Ron Paul was able to secure delegates when he ran and Trump is massively popular in the south.
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Dec 8, 2015 20:20
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Whoa, Ben Carson just skyrocketed up the next to drop out market. edit: Oh, well it appears people bought shares at 25, but now the best YES sell price is at 7 cents, so temporary inflation?
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Dec 8, 2015 22:46
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pathetic little tramp posted:Whoa, Ben Carson just skyrocketed up the next to drop out market. Apparently he canceled 343k worth of TV in Iowa and SC
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Dec 8, 2015 23:13
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Ah, that'd explain the bump - new markets out on whether Trump will run as Indy next year and if Obama will close the gunshow loophole by the end of the month which is an incredibly obvious no.
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Dec 8, 2015 23:39
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Is that something Obama can even do?
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Dec 8, 2015 23:46
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Necc0 posted:Is that something Obama can even do? Well, when you hate America and the Constitution as much as that guy there's just no telling. Why, he's not even a REAL American to start with. I know because I listen to AM radio.
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Dec 9, 2015 01:38
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Necc0 posted:Is that something Obama can even do? There's a proposal for what he can do that would effectively close it by redefining who counts as a dealer, but it's not clear it would survive a court challenge (which is why it hasn't happened). Question is if that would count for the market.
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Dec 9, 2015 03:16
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Crazy bet of the day: bought hundreds of shares of Yes for O'Malley polling @ 5% on Dec. 31. Couldn't resist at 6c a share.
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Dec 9, 2015 03:19
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Cruz to win Iowa seems crazy at 60, this early I'm just scooping up Iowa Santorums and Huckabees and Carson for dirt cheap.
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Dec 9, 2015 05:05
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District Selectman posted:Cruz to win Iowa seems crazy at 60, this early Of those three you mentioned I think Carson is the best bargain. Not sure what this airtime buy cancellation is all about, but who can resist shares at 2-cents?
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Dec 9, 2015 05:53
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Carson and Cruz both overperform when polls screen for registered likely primary-goers. I think they're both a good pick, but Cruz is inflated at the moment.
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Dec 9, 2015 06:24
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District Selectman posted:Cruz to win Iowa seems crazy at 60, this early I'm maxed on No here. Probably bought into it too greedily and too deep, but I've got two months to see a turnaround.
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Dec 9, 2015 06:39
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Cruz Nomination YES just shot up, was able to buy NOs at .70. State Department Warning YES is finally swinging hard, looks like people realize we're in a perpetual state of fear forever.
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Dec 9, 2015 06:59
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Vox Nihili posted:I'm maxed on No here. Probably bought into it too greedily and too deep, but I've got two months to see a turnaround. I'm maxed out on Cruz NO here as well. I had about a half-max bet when he was around 50, so if I can fill the other half at 40, I am in. I have 2000+ shares of Carson now. He was a steal at 3
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Dec 9, 2015 16:21
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I think I'm the only one who is bullish on Cruz. The Trump indy market is still acting weird. From what I can gather, there was a USA today article that said the majority of his supporters would vote for him if he did do an independent run, and he tweeted it. If there is anything else then I'm missing it.
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Dec 9, 2015 18:36
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Zeta Taskforce posted:There are a bunch of NO Trump Indy runs at 92 right now. This should trade back up to the traditional 96-97 range by the end of the day. Bought in at 95 this week, need to rustle up some capital to buy at 90-92 and take it to the bank. There's no way he would go from R frontrunner to IND in the weeks.  is there? 
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Dec 9, 2015 18:37
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I think I'm the only one who is bullish on Cruz. It was just a warning shot across the GOP bow. I'm guessing there were people who figured Trump had dropped that threat but he definitely hasn't.
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Dec 9, 2015 18:42
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Necc0 posted:It was just a warning shot across the GOP bow. I'm guessing there were people who figured Trump had dropped that threat but he definitely hasn't.
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Dec 9, 2015 18:50
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Tomato Burger posted:Bought in at 95 this week, need to rustle up some capital to buy at 90-92 and take it to the bank. There's no way he would go from R frontrunner to IND in the weeks. Well under 1% chance, IMO.
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Dec 9, 2015 19:39
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I think I'm the only one who is bullish on Cruz. I am extremely bullish on Cruz. He has two months to gently caress up Iowa or for the masses to jump to the next clown over. If he is winning or a strong second to Trump in Iowa on caucus night, he is the favorite to win the nom. He's now in the same conversation with Rubio, which was inconceivable to most people six months ago.
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Dec 9, 2015 19:40
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If you lock up significant money on a site that limits your overall action to take a not entirely sure bet when there will be 50 better bets before summer / Hillary is at 90, you are bad at this.
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Dec 9, 2015 19:41
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Adar posted:I am extremely bullish on Cruz. He has two months to gently caress up Iowa or for the masses to jump to the next clown over. If he is winning or a strong second to Trump in Iowa on caucus night, he is the favorite to win the nom. He's now in the same conversation with Rubio, which was inconceivable to most people six months ago. Winning Iowa isn't worth as much as you're giving it credit for. Traditionally it has gone to crank candidates. This year could be different, but there are a huge number of R delegates in blue states. Cruz has a very uphill battle.
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Dec 9, 2015 19:54
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Cruz's problem is his brand doesn't sell in blue states. Uphill battle is the right way to describe what he'll face, even if he wins Iowa.
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Dec 9, 2015 20:01
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Peachstapler posted:Cruz's problem is his brand doesn't sell in blue states. Uphill battle is the right way to describe what he'll face, even if he wins Iowa. There aren't actually any blue states in the Republican primary. I think even the most liberal states in the general are at best purple in the Republican Primary. Cruz is actually well positioned to win this thing now. If/when Trump falls most of his support goes to Cruz and he walks the line between establishment and insanity well enough to pull from pretty much every base other than the Paulites.
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Dec 9, 2015 20:42
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Gyges posted:There aren't actually any blue states in the Republican primary. I think even the most liberal states in the general are at best purple in the Republican Primary. I agree with half of this. The blue states actually have a lot of say in the republican primaries. There is some formula of how many delegates each state gets, and it is enhanced by having a republican governor and other elected officials, which helps states like Massachusetts. This helps the establishment candidate, especially in a normal year when there is an heir apparent surrounded by different flavors of wingnut. That might still happen, except that the heir apparent was Jeb! and that is looking less and less likely. Rubio comes across as a light weight. The other governors have not gotten traction either. If anything the normal situation is reversed where the wingnuts are able to consolidate behind a few canidates and the establishment is fragmented. Combined with a belief that the reason they lost to Obama is they didn't nominate a true believer, Cruz has a strong shot. Above 30% anyway.
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Dec 9, 2015 21:22
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Gyges posted:There aren't actually any blue states in the Republican primary. I think even the most liberal states in the general are at best purple in the Republican Primary. edit: I don't know where Trump is headed but I concede Cruz would probably win South Carolina if Trump's support dwindled from fascism overload.
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Dec 9, 2015 21:26
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Gyges posted:There aren't actually any blue states in the Republican primary. I think even the most liberal states in the general are at best purple in the Republican Primary. This is wrong. Republicans from, say, New York are incredibly different from Republicans from a state like South Carolina. There is a reason Cruz has little traction in New Hampshire, and it isn't just spending/appearances. The same goes for Democrats. A staunch conservative from Massachusetts might be considered a moderate in Mississippi. It's difficult to overstate the cultural differences between states.
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Dec 9, 2015 21:44
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The Hill says Congress is pushing back the budget deadline to Dec 16th: http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/house/262690-lawmakers-to-push-spending-deadline-to-dec-16 12/14 shutdown Nos still at 94c.
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Dec 9, 2015 23:20
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Shear Modulus posted:The Hill says Congress is pushing back the budget deadline to Dec 16th: http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/house/262690-lawmakers-to-push-spending-deadline-to-dec-16 Trump indy run noes still at 92c as well. The time for milquetoast gains is now!
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Dec 10, 2015 00:08
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The blue state GOP that was radically different not very long ago is currently staying home. Trump has national leads in every state including the blue ones for a reason. If Cruz supplants him in Iowa and becomes the acceptable consensus candidate, it will be a two man race between him and Rubio and he will have 3 out of 4 states going into Super Tuesday (Nevada is pretty much a lock for him if those are the two options.) If you think Trump is still dead, Cruz and Rubio are now very clearly the two people worth betting on. Maybe Christie if you think that debate performance matters, and I also put 2-10 pounds down on every viable 100-500/1 (meaning not Carson/Huckabee/Santorum) as insurance. Cruz is currently a really good bet, though. At 4/1, which is where he is on Betfair, the odds are likely 15% off. Vox Nihili posted:Trump indy run noes still at 92c as well. The time for milquetoast gains is now! Hilldawg is at 89.8 or whatever; if you're gonna go milquetoast you should put it on the predictable megalomaniac, not the crazy one Adar has issued a correction as of 00:12 on Dec 10, 2015 |
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Dec 10, 2015 00:09
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Adar posted:Hilldawg is at 89.8 or whatever; if you're gonna go milquetoast you should put it on the predictable megalomaniac, not the crazy one For what, winning the nomination? That's going to take months to pay out, the Trump third party market will close in a few weeks.
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Dec 10, 2015 00:14
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New gun control market
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Dec 10, 2015 00:16
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Wanamingo posted:For what, winning the nomination? That's going to take months to pay out, the Trump third party market will close in a few weeks. Oh, it's a 12/31 deadline? Never mind what I said, free money. Except that you're locking up precious Iowa cash this month, but whatever.
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Dec 10, 2015 00:19
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I thought it was 12/31/16 - turns out there are actually two Trump indy markets at the moment, be careful out there!
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Dec 10, 2015 00:35
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