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blueyedevil posted:What history of democracy do they really have? The British tried to institute some but it got squashed by the CCP.
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Dec 18, 2015 01:04
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Bip Roberts posted:The British tried to institute some but it got squashed by the CCP. A meager taste of extremely limited popular governance 80 years into their rule. Ooh boy
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Dec 18, 2015 03:52
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blueyedevil posted:A meager taste of extremely limited popular governance 80 years into their rule. Ooh boy Democracy cannot be imposed, it must be achieved.
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Dec 18, 2015 04:41
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blueyedevil posted:A meager taste of extremely limited popular governance 80 years into their rule. Ooh boy The city was also very high on the transparency index, had a strong rule of law, free press and a reliable legal system. Nowadays China wants to mould Hong Kong to be more like Singapore but with a sycophantic government to the Communist Party instead of a meritocratic civil service.
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Dec 18, 2015 04:49
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caberham posted:The city was also very high on the transparency index, had a strong rule of law, free press and a reliable legal system. Nowadays China wants to mould Hong Kong to be more like Singapore but with a sycophantic government to the Communist Party instead of a meritocratic civil service. Agreed. However, HK has been suckling at the mainland's economic teat for quite some time now and I can't see themselves weaning from it
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Dec 18, 2015 04:59
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blueyedevil posted:Agreed. However, HK has been suckling at the mainland's economic teat for quite some time now and I can't see themselves weaning from it Are you aware that about 45% of China's FDI is from Hong Kong? China needs us more than we need them. Also, Mao literally threatened to invade when Britain tried to introduce real democracy in the fifties during the decolonisation wave.
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Dec 19, 2015 15:01
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caberham posted:The city was also very high on the transparency index, had a strong rule of law, free press and a reliable legal system. Though a lot of that was at best around 20 years old when the switch over happened.
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Dec 19, 2015 15:48
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e: dp
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Dec 19, 2015 15:48
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sincx posted:Taiwan needs its own nuclear deterrence. There needs to be a place in the world that shows Chinese culture is in fact compatible with freedom and democracy. Taiwan has a nuclear deterrent, currently known as the United States of America.
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Dec 19, 2015 16:02
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Freudian posted:Taiwan has a nuclear deterrent, currently known as the United States of America. No one is sure if that deterrent is going to be available on a given day though.
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Dec 19, 2015 17:44
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Artificer posted:No one is sure if that deterrent is going to be available on a given day though. It didn't work out so great for Ukraine, and they even had a treaty.
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Dec 20, 2015 03:18
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On the other hand a successful invasion and occupation of Taiwan would require the PLA to pull off an Operation Downfall-esque amphibious invasion and the PLA doesn't know how to do anything aside from throw bodies at the enemy until the enemy is overwhelmed.
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Dec 20, 2015 03:36
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They certainly have a lot of bodies to throw. The real question is whether Taiwan will break or the Commissars standing behind the PLA conscripts will run out of bullets.
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Dec 20, 2015 04:07
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Seems like it'd be easier to blockade, assuming we're in a scenario where the US won't intervene.
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Dec 20, 2015 04:14
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WarpedNaba posted:They certainly have a lot of bodies to throw. The real question is whether Taiwan will break or the Commissars standing behind the PLA conscripts will run out of bullets. Fun fact: the ROC Army still has political commissars. I'm told they're sort of like psychological counselors and morale officers nowadays.
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Dec 20, 2015 04:17
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WarpedNaba posted:They certainly have a lot of bodies to throw. The real question is whether Taiwan will break or the Commissars standing behind the PLA conscripts will run out of bullets. They'd also need to complete all their objectives before the full might of the US military arrives, so extremely optimistically, they have about a week to pull off the largest amphibious invasion in history and dig in
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Dec 20, 2015 04:31
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The PLA is building its capacity for the kind of extended power-projection muscle flexing that the US is so good at and would help China enforce policy in the South China Sea... or Taiwan I guess, if they really wanted to gently caress things up for only symbolic gain.
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Dec 20, 2015 08:30
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Chantilly Say posted:The PLA is building its capacity for the kind of extended power-projection muscle flexing that the US is so good at and would help China enforce policy in the South China Sea... or Taiwan I guess, if they really wanted to gently caress things up for only symbolic gain. They're nowhere near US capabilities for power projection and won't be anytime this century.
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Dec 20, 2015 09:45
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Fojar38 posted:They're nowhere near US capabilities for power projection and won't be anytime this century. They don't need to be anywhere near US capabilities, they just need enough to backup whatever oversea interests they will have in future, South China Sea, Indian Ocean, Africa etc. I think your blindly dismissive of the PLA despite ample evidence that they have significantly invested in their military and increased their capabilities.
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Dec 20, 2015 13:34
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GlassEye-Boy posted:They don't need to be anywhere near US capabilities, they just need enough to backup whatever oversea interests they will have in future, South China Sea, Indian Ocean, Africa etc. I think your blindly dismissive of the PLA despite ample evidence that they have significantly invested in their military and increased their capabilities. China's coast is surrounded by a solid ring of hostile nations who are allies with the US. If it came down to a shooting war the US navy could prevent Chinese ships from leaving the South or East China Seas. They literally wouldn't be able to get them to the Indian Ocean or Africa if the US decided not to let them icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 13:46 on Dec 20, 2015 |
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Dec 20, 2015 13:43
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Fojar38 posted:the PLA doesn't know how to do anything aside from throw bodies at the enemy until the enemy is overwhelmed. This has never been true.
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Dec 20, 2015 13:50
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Even if it was "the enemy is dumb and sucks" is not a good starting assumption for your plans
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Dec 20, 2015 13:59
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icantfindaname posted:China's coast is surrounded by a solid ring of hostile nations who are allies with the US. If it came down to a shooting war the US navy could prevent Chinese ships from leaving the South or East China Seas. They literally wouldn't be able to get them to the Indian Ocean or Africa if the US decided not to let them Your automatically assuming a conflict with the US. China's Navy will be targeted towards areas where it interests lie which is mainly securing it's trade routes and foreign interests. This does not necessarily mean conflict with the US.
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Dec 20, 2015 14:12
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TheBalor posted:It didn't work out so great for Ukraine, and they even had a treaty. Ukraine did not have a treaty with the US. There was a memorandum and the US did not have the same history of arming and supporting them for decades like it does with Taiwan.
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Dec 20, 2015 14:36
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Peel posted:This has never been true. They were, ironically, a much better fighting force back in the Korean War, but since then they've atrophied so badly that they probably couldn't even do as well as they did then. That they haven't been involved in any major conflict since 1979 and that they haven't been involved in any conflict where they could actually claim to have been effective at all since 1953 matters, especially when talking about such a massively complex operation as an invasion and occupation of Taiwan. I mean yeah if I were actually in charge of planning stuff I wouldn't be jumping off under the assumption that the enemy is dumb and lovely but I'm not. GlassEye-Boy posted:Your automatically assuming a conflict with the US. China's Navy will be targeted towards areas where it interests lie which is mainly securing it's trade routes and foreign interests. This does not necessarily mean conflict with the US. Its trade routes and foreign interests are already largely secured by the US, and to China that's a problem.
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Dec 20, 2015 16:01
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That's fair, I assumed you were repeating the human wave myth from Korea. I'm also deeply sceptical about the state of the modern PLA relative to the 1950s, but on the other hand the invasion of Taiwan is going to be one of the most thoroughly planned and prepared operations the Chinese military might do.
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Dec 20, 2015 16:12
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Naval cooperation is really important - instead of dick waving everyone should contribute some security for open navigation.
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Dec 20, 2015 16:47
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The possibility we really have to be on the lookout for is the possibility of somebody using gas warfare on this thread.
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Dec 20, 2015 18:33
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Fojar38 posted:They're nowhere near US capabilities for power projection and won't be anytime this century. Oh, absolutely not, and that's not what I was saying. But limited-range projection into the South China Sea or, sure, Taiwan, will be within their technical grasp within a short enough time to be relevant. The professional experience with this kind of thing still won't be there, of course, and that's a problem you can't just throw money and industrial capacity at. But I also think that as long as things remain stable, there's little actual incentive for reunification by force.
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Dec 20, 2015 18:35
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GlassEye-Boy posted:Your automatically assuming a conflict with the US. China's Navy will be targeted towards areas where it interests lie which is mainly securing it's trade routes and foreign interests. This does not necessarily mean conflict with the US. If China's navy is only able to do things the US allows them to do that seems like it's pretty well crippled to me. Saying "but what if the US sits back and lets them sail out the Straits of Malacca and do whatever they want?  " isn't really a good counterargument
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Dec 20, 2015 20:13
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I love vaguely informed sperglords speculating about China invading Taiwan, because they almost always treat Taiwan like it's Burkina Faso instead of, you know, one of the most heavily fortified coastlines in the world.
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Dec 20, 2015 21:10
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Franks Happy Place posted:I love vaguely informed sperglords speculating about China invading Taiwan, because they almost always treat Taiwan like it's Burkina Faso instead of, you know, one of the most heavily fortified coastlines in the world. This is also true. Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion for over half a century and the advantage in an amphibious invasion is almost always with the defenders.
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Dec 20, 2015 21:54
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Fojar38 posted:This is also true. Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion for over half a century and the advantage in an amphibious invasion is almost always with the defenders. Taiwan's air force operates out of fortified bunkers and practices landing on any strip of the national highway system for ultimate redundancy. Taiwan has more antiship missiles than China has rubber dinghies for their "marines". Taiwan is a mountainous country with just a few huge mountain passes that cut the country in two, each of which is full to the brim with tank traps that would give a Swiss general a four alarm boner. "But you know I'm sure the PLA will just use their Oriental magic and cast an overcharged version of Nomaha Beach or something." 
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Dec 20, 2015 22:00
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Dec 20, 2015 22:00
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Franks Happy Place posted:Taiwan's air force operates out of fortified bunkers and practices landing on any strip of the national highway system for ultimate redundancy. Taiwan has more antiship missiles than China has rubber dinghies for their "marines". Taiwan is a mountainous country with just a few huge mountain passes that cut the country in two, each of which is full to the brim with tank traps that would give a Swiss general a four alarm boner. They're going to use millions of paratroopers. And a few overlord tanks with radio towers.
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Dec 20, 2015 22:09
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McDowell posted:Naval cooperation is really important - instead of dick waving everyone should contribute some security for open navigation. To the United Nations? For Global Defense of the seas? That's some initiative.
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Dec 21, 2015 07:03
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I've always gotten the impression China trying to invade Taiwan would be levels beyond Operation Sealion levels of humiliating country-shattering defeat.
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Dec 21, 2015 18:17
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WarpedNaba posted:To the United Nations? For Global Defense of the seas? That's some initiative. A Global Defense Initiative? Sounds good, I'll give that the nod.
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Dec 21, 2015 19:03
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They don't need to invade as much as blockade and wait (while blowing things up, sure), then invade at their leisure. But that is all assuming they're convinced that the US isn't going to go whole hog in defending Taiwan, which seemed more in question a few years ago than it does now.
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Dec 21, 2015 21:49
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Fojar38 posted:On the other hand a successful invasion and occupation of Taiwan would require the PLA to pull off an Operation Downfall-esque amphibious invasion and the PLA doesn't know how to do anything aside from throw bodies at the enemy until the enemy is overwhelmed.  They conducted a fairly sophisticated (if modest scale) high altitude war, and had some pretty good tactical acumen even in Korea to compensate for the fact that their ordnance and armor was... not up to American standards.Heck, even the Vietnamese conflict wasn't completely embarrassing. Just mostly. Not that an invasion of Taiwan wouldn't go singularly poorly, but that has more to do with Taiwan than with the PLA being incompetent. Edit: okay, your followup post was better phrased. Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 23:26 on Dec 21, 2015 |
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Dec 21, 2015 23:22
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