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Ola posted:This is only third long range EV brought to market and already the price is slashed in two. Tesla Model 3 is being launched in March, Leaf 30 kWh is in the shops (or soon?) and VW is just getting started. The pace is starting to pick up. The trend is exciting but it is difficult to see the price floor going lower in a very near timeframe, although I think we'll see it drop more. Technology cost comes down very fast with time, but batteries have so far been exempt from much of that technology cost/time trend. Unconfirmed price for Model 3 is $42,500, right? Musk said $35k but I think the consensus is he was including the federal credit.
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Jan 7, 2016 22:52
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Lithium ion battery prices are down ~60% the past 10 years, but if you want an EV then depreciation is your friend. I think it's going to be reminiscent of the early smart phone market with a constant stream of longer range, newer features, new ideas etc etc that is going to lead to the rich and/or irresponsible changing often and the used market being in favor of the buyer.
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Jan 7, 2016 23:14
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http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/07/electric-vehicle-batteries-are-getting-cheaper-much-faster-than-we-expected/
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Jan 7, 2016 23:17
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The thing that sucks is the way the tax credit works, you can realistically make enough to afford the car, but not make enough to take advantage of the entirety of the tax credit, which drives the effective price of the car back up, again. Congress is going to be looking at that law again in the future, and I really hope they don't gently caress it up. (They will.)
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Jan 8, 2016 01:05
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Subjunctive posted:Average new car price is $33K in the US, so I think it's probably in a good price place. What's the average price for its actual competition, though? Because your average includes Corvettes, Porsches, and a whole lot of other high-priced vehicles that are skewing the results. If you took the average for everything under $75k or something, it's going to be in the mid 20s which is where the final price on a car that size needs to be.
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Jan 8, 2016 01:29
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Godholio posted:What's the average price for its actual competition, though? Because your average includes Corvettes, Porsches, and a whole lot of other high-priced vehicles that are skewing the results. If you took the average for everything under $75k or something, it's going to be in the mid 20s which is where the final price on a car that size needs to be. I doubt Corvettes or Porsches are numerous enough to materially affect the median, I have to say. But sure, if you take the average for everything under $50K it's going to be lower still! What would you consider to be its actual competition? I don't know what people are cross shopping for these days.
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Jan 8, 2016 01:43
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Subjunctive posted:I doubt Corvettes or Porsches are numerous enough to materially affect the median, I have to say. But sure, if you take the average for everything under $50K it's going to be lower still! The amount of people who get optioned out SUVs these days for 50-60 is kinda crazy, and they can't really afford it.
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Jan 8, 2016 04:34
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Godholio posted:What's the average price for its actual competition, though? Because your average includes Corvettes, Porsches, and a whole lot of other high-priced vehicles that are skewing the results. If you took the average for everything under $75k or something, it's going to be in the mid 20s which is where the final price on a car that size needs to be. Average transaction price on America's top-selling vehicle the Ford F-150 is about $44k, so probably not. The second-most selling vehicle the Chevy Silverado goes for an average of $36k. OXBALLS DOT COM fucked around with this message at 04:43 on Jan 8, 2016 |
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Jan 8, 2016 04:40
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Maybe I'm off by a couple grand, but the point is that this car is already priced higher than the average sale price. When you take away the stuff that it's obviously not competing with (trucks, SUVs, high-end sports cars), the disparity gets even worse. But maybe it's priced low enough to win over enough new customers to make a difference in how the market works. I hope so, but if I were in the market for a new vehicle I wouldn't give it a second look at that price.
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Jan 8, 2016 04:50
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Godholio posted:Maybe I'm off by a couple grand, but the point is that this car is already priced higher than the average sale price. When you take away the stuff that it's obviously not competing with (trucks, SUVs, high-end sports cars), the disparity gets even worse. But maybe it's priced low enough to win over enough new customers to make a difference in how the market works. I hope so, but if I were in the market for a new vehicle I wouldn't give it a second look at that price. There's literally nothing else on the market for that price. The closest competitors either have significantly less range or cost twice as much. And the whole thing is almost certainly more a marketing and development thing than a big profit-driver Posters in this thread were jizzing their pants a few pages ago over 200 mile range under $40k when Tesla teased it. I also remain skeptical whether there's really that much more of a market even at that priCe point, though. OXBALLS DOT COM fucked around with this message at 05:03 on Jan 8, 2016 |
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Jan 8, 2016 04:58
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Mange Mite posted:There's literally nothing else on the market for that price. The closest competitors either have significantly less range or cost twice as much. The problem is that eventually these cars are going to have to compete against similar-sized combustion vehicles. People dedicated to driving electrics are already won over; my expectation was that the Bolt was going to be priced closer to vehicles that look like it. At 30k after rebate, this thing isn't attracting people who want a car that size unless they already want an electric. I like the car, I just think it needs to be more affordable to have the kind of splash some of us are hoping for.
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Jan 8, 2016 05:06
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Godholio posted:The problem is that eventually these cars are going to have to compete against similar-sized combustion vehicles. People dedicated to driving electrics are already won over; my expectation was that the Bolt was going to be priced closer to vehicles that look like it. At 30k after rebate, this thing isn't attracting people who want a car that size unless they already want an electric. The closest vehicle like it is the i3 which is at the same price point. The leaf is cheaper but this hasnt really translated to better sales. a In general though I'm inclined to agree. It's the sort of like how "affordable" small sports cars are mostly a non-starter. People on the market for one new are mostly not that price sensitive and will go for the high-end stuff.
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Jan 8, 2016 05:13
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Mange Mite posted:Posters in this thread were jizzing their pants a few pages ago over 200 mile range under $40k when Tesla teased it. I also remain skeptical whether there's really that much more of a market even at that priCe point, though. Considering you can get a 2 year old cpo model s from them in the 40s now, it's something to think about.
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Jan 8, 2016 05:26
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Mange Mite posted:The closest vehicle like it is the i3 which is at the same price point. The leaf is cheaper but this hasnt really translated to better sales. a BMW i3 is 42,000 base. I'm not following you.
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Jan 8, 2016 06:23
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Godholio posted:The problem is that eventually these cars are going to have to compete against similar-sized combustion vehicles. People dedicated to driving electrics are already won over; my expectation was that the Bolt was going to be priced closer to vehicles that look like it. At 30k after rebate, this thing isn't attracting people who want a car that size unless they already want an electric. But that is a huge amount of people. Tesla buyers weren't all 5-series buyers who went green, many people who would never consider buying a car that size or in that price class jumped on it because they were enthusiastic about EVs. And many more people felt the same, but couldn't afford it. With the Bolt, many of those suddenly can. Consider that the only EV with a 200 mile range available for purchase today is a Tesla S70 RWD at $70,000 before incentives, the Bolt is almost half price. And while it's a bit apples/oranges to compare a huge family sedan with a compact crossover, for the market share that's still on the fence or looking to upgrade a 3-4 year old Leaf, the exact category of vehicle isn't as important as price, battery range and the "actually usable" factor (i.e. not a Roadster or a shoebox with wheels). Maybe in 3-4 years time, we'll see a 250 mile compact at $25k before incentives (my money is on VW, if they survive the diesel debacle), if incentives are still applicable then. Doesn't seem unrealistic at all given the current curve. If the Bolt comes to Norway under the Opel badge, I'm sure it'll outsell the eGolf.
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Jan 8, 2016 10:58
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The Bolt is a step in the right direction, I suppose. It's nice that the major automakers are cranking out electric cars, but I think one of the main reasons Tesla has been so successful is that the Model S is a sexy, badass, high presence car. The Bolt is a retarded looking half minivan, half hatchback snoozemobile. GM needed a halo electric car to attract people to the brand (and no, not the ELR). What was stopping them from designing something that looks dope as hell? If you can package the batteries below the car, there was no need to make it a lame hatchback. They should have made a cool sporty sedan/coupe first, and for the same price (~35-40k) to get people excited for electric cars, and then came out with the bolt later once the hype from the first electric car drew them in. No one gets excited about a Miev, Leaf, rav 4 electric, focus electric etc. But people sure as gently caress jerk off over the Model S. I'm holding out for the Model E - if I have a place to charge it I'll be first in line.
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Jan 8, 2016 15:35
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I liked the concept better, it looked less Prius-y: 
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Jan 8, 2016 16:42
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smackfu posted:I liked the concept better, it looked less Prius-y: The concept looked like it was wearing a ball-gag. I like the look of the production Bolt; and I like its practicality. I'll probably buy one after a test drive.
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Jan 8, 2016 17:19
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So can adults actually fit in the backseat of the Bolt? It looks like the roof curves down and the head rests are only inches from the roof. Certainly nice to see more range and something that should be built as solid as a normal car.
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Jan 8, 2016 18:27
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smackfu posted:I liked the concept better, it looked less Prius-y: ...and it didn't blatantly steal the lines on the rear windows from the BMW i3... 
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Jan 8, 2016 19:33
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Ola posted:But that is a huge amount of people. Tesla buyers weren't all 5-series buyers who went green, many people who would never consider buying a car that size or in that price class jumped on it because they were enthusiastic about EVs. And many more people felt the same, but couldn't afford it. With the Bolt, many of those suddenly can. Consider that the only EV with a 200 mile range available for purchase today is a Tesla S70 RWD at $70,000 before incentives, the Bolt is almost half price. And while it's a bit apples/oranges to compare a huge family sedan with a compact crossover, for the market share that's still on the fence or looking to upgrade a 3-4 year old Leaf, the exact category of vehicle isn't as important as price, battery range and the "actually usable" factor (i.e. not a Roadster or a shoebox with wheels). I was with you until "huge family sedan". The model S not that big and it's not really super practical either.
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Jan 8, 2016 21:32
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My S feels like it has a lot of storage between trunk, trunk compartment, and frunk. More than my previous Kia that's for sure! Putting a bike in the back is easy. Tall people in the back isn't ideal, and car seat installation can be awkward because of the headrests, but otherwise I've found it pretty good. What do you find impractical (other than ridiculous price, which yes quite)?
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Jan 8, 2016 21:36
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Subjunctive posted:My S feels like it has a lot of storage between trunk, trunk compartment, and frunk. More than my previous Kia that's for sure! Putting a bike in the back is easy. As you said, because of the weird ergonomics inside, riding in it feels more like riding in a Civic than a big family car or luxury sedan. It's fine as a commuter but carrying 4 adults or a car seat would be a chore. Visibility isn't great either. And only 2 cupholders
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Jan 8, 2016 21:41
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Visibility out the rear view mirror is a joke, yeah. I leave the rear camera on a lot of the time. I've had 4 adults for multi-hour trips, and had 3+booster seat a couple of times, it didn't seem too bad. I wasn't in the back, but nobody complained. (Those driver/passenger visors though sweet heavens. So ugly.)
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Jan 8, 2016 21:44
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Subjunctive posted:My S feels like it has a lot of storage between trunk, trunk compartment, and frunk. More than my previous Kia that's for sure! Putting a bike in the back is easy. Well, where are you supposed to fit your stack of 4x8' sheets of plywood for one? And try fitting a hay bale, calf, and a pallet of oil drums along with your 4 kids and 2 muddy dogs in the back.
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Jan 8, 2016 21:50
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Mange Mite posted:I was with you until "huge family sedan". The model S not that big and it's not really super practical either. Maybe Norwegian and American scales for "big car" are a bit out of tune, but 5x2 meters and 2+ metric tons is big in my book, and not easy to park in places with medieval street layouts. But it's very practical when it comes to cargo. The 2WD frunk is huge, with the rear seats down the rear is positively cavernous. As for the Bolt smackfu posted:I liked the concept better, it looked less Prius-y: I agree, the concept is more box-like but in a good way. Shorter hood, more efficient packaging. I think the reason it looks Prius-like is that it's going to share platform with the Opel Astra:  Perhaps the Bolt will even be sold as Astra in Europe?
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Jan 8, 2016 21:58
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The Astra is on D2XX with the Volt, not the Bolt.
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Jan 8, 2016 23:52
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:The Astra is on D2XX with the Volt, not the Bolt. I can't find the link where I picked it up, but I am guessing it's the next generation.
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Jan 9, 2016 00:16
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Drove the Bolt and Arcimoto at CES this week: http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/01/chevrolets-bolt-is-an-electric-vehicle-for-the-masses-and-weve-driven-it/ http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/01/the-arcimoto-srk-electric-vehicle-is-the-most-fun-thing-we-did-at-ces/ Both really impressive products. The Bolt is fun to drive and the Arcimoto was my stand out of the show (possibly because I had absolutely no preconceived ideas about it).
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Jan 9, 2016 18:35
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Just watching your video on the Bolt, why is it that manufacturers offering touch screens as a means to control everything in a car make the actual touch points SO loving SMALL...? The display on that thing really needs streamlining but I suppose offering physical controls means they can be lazy in terms of design. Other manufacturers aren't doing that though.
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Jan 9, 2016 20:50
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Nice reports drgitlin! Did you a) get told what the kWh rating of the battery was and can tell us? b) get told what the kWh rating of the battery but also told that you can't tell us? c) none of the above?
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Jan 10, 2016 02:44
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Ola posted:Nice reports drgitlin! Did you For the Bolt? No, they wouldn't tell me, and we all expected that info to be released when Barra gave her keynote, but it wasn't. I asked lots of questions they wouldn't answer, like "when are we getting the Corvette E-Ray?"
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Jan 10, 2016 02:49
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A bit weird. I hope they're not pulling some sort of trick, "yes, it's 50 miles on a single charge, but 200 miles if you charge it four times in our planned-for-2022 charging network which you have to pay for!" I choose to believe the final rating isn't settled yet. The chemistry and engineering might be completed, but the software decides how deep down 0% is and how high 100% is and that changes the kWh rating significantly.
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Jan 10, 2016 03:05
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Ola posted:A bit weird. I hope they're not pulling some sort of trick, "yes, it's 50 miles on a single charge, but 200 miles if you charge it four times in our planned-for-2022 charging network which you have to pay for!" I choose to believe the final rating isn't settled yet. The chemistry and engineering might be completed, but the software decides how deep down 0% is and how high 100% is and that changes the kWh rating significantly. I'd imagine that if they're having semi-public drives, the design and specifications are locked down, and the rating exists, but they're still doing testing to confirm it. Full-up SAE testing (regardless of power source) is a lengthy process. (And lol@Mazda for ignoring it and just publishing rectally-sourced numbers occasionally.)
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Jan 10, 2016 04:10
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I think the problem is that as soon as they announce it has a 30kwh battery, tesla is going to say their model E will have a 35kwh battery, even if it's 3 years away from production, to try to steal a few sales.
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Jan 10, 2016 04:18
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I hope both of them have a lot more than 30 kWh! And I really hope we get a kWh-race in EVs, like the megapixel race in cameras.
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Jan 10, 2016 17:50
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Ola posted:But that is a huge amount of people. Tesla buyers weren't all 5-series buyers who went green, many people who would never consider buying a car that size or in that price class jumped on it because they were enthusiastic about EVs. And many more people felt the same, but couldn't afford it. With the Bolt, many of those suddenly can. Consider that the only EV with a 200 mile range available for purchase today is a Tesla S70 RWD at $70,000 before incentives, the Bolt is almost half price. And while it's a bit apples/oranges to compare a huge family sedan with a compact crossover, for the market share that's still on the fence or looking to upgrade a 3-4 year old Leaf, the exact category of vehicle isn't as important as price, battery range and the "actually usable" factor (i.e. not a Roadster or a shoebox with wheels). Plus, we won't really know how a $30,000 price tag compares with gasoline cars until we find out what kinds of features we'd be getting. There hasn't yet been any official word for that sort of thing (though it's highly probable the Model 3 will offer autopilot similar to the Model S, making it the cheapest car with that feature by a wide margin).
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Jan 10, 2016 23:13
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Speaking of autopilot, Tesla just just officially announced Summon, the feature where the car drives itself out of the garage etc. https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/summon-your-tesla-your-phone quote:Last Fall, Tesla Version 7.0 software introduced a range of new Autopilot active safety and convenience features to give you more confidence behind the wheel, increase your safety on the road, and make highway driving more enjoyable. The release of Tesla Version 7.1 software continues our improvements to self-driving technology. This release expands Autopilot functionality and introduces the first iteration of Summon.
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Jan 10, 2016 23:29
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Ola posted:I hope both of them have a lot more than 30 kWh! And I really hope we get a kWh-race in EVs, like the megapixel race in cameras. There won't be a kWh race. You're not adding a significant amount of rare materials when you pack more cells onto a ccd. The average person can see the difference in a digital photo between 1 megapixel, 4 megapixels and 12 megapixels, and that seems to be where 90% of the population gets off the bus. 12 megapixel is enough for them. You are adding a significant amount of rare materials when you pack more batteries into a car. The average person doesn't drive more than 100 miles in a single trip. they can definitely tell the difference between the 4.4kwh battery in the plug in prius, the 16kwh battery in the volt, and the 23kwh battery in the focus, as they directly translate to a 18, 40, and 76 mile range, and that again will probably be where 90% of the population gets off the bus. The bolt range will likely be boosted by super skinny eco tires, light weight materials, more intelligent and efficient regen tech, and an extremely low Cd. Your highway cruisers will obviously get larger batteries, but something like the bolt is really more of a city car, and i personally wouldn't want to take one out on the highway any more than i would a spark or sonic.
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Jan 10, 2016 23:52
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The megapixel race was enabled by Moore’s Law. Batteries have nothing similar.
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Jan 11, 2016 00:00
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