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Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

Boomstick Quaid posted:

Then why was Bernie beating Republicans in those same match ups?

Alrighty let me spell it out for you: People like Bernie and Trump are currently getting a lot of attention because they are "new" and "fresh", and polls are excellent indicators of attention, not necessarily votes. You can poll as high as you want but if your ground game and campaign in general can't keep up your still not going to get elected.

What Trump has going for him is that he's an outrageous buffoon so the press is constantly gawking at him giving him a lot of attention. Once Hillary is in the spot light a shitload again when the invariable poo poo slinging contest that will happen as the general nears she will probably become more competitive in the polls. There is also the fact that very little of the current GOP line up have a very united appeal to the base (with the more moderate candidates being outright despised) while Hillary and Bernie are both extremely well liked by the Dem base.

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Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
Cruz: I won't be 'an emperor'

quote:

Ted Cruz had a message for conservatives rabid for the repeal of Obamacare: Don't expect "Day One" results.

"The president doesn’t have the constitutional authority to end it on Day One," he said in an interview aired Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union. "The only way to end it is to repeal that statute … we will repeal Obamacare, but unlike Obama, I don’t intend as president to be — to use his word — an emperor."

It's a rare appeal to pragmatism from a candidate who typically stokes the conservative id. It came initially as a response to questions about immigration, when he argue that presidents have the obligation to enforce the law on the books, whether they agree with it or not. Cruz rejected an immigration approach proposed by Donald Trump to send deportation agents door to door to round up immigrants in the country illegally.

"I don’t intend to send jackboots to knock on your door and every door in America," Cruz said. "That’s not how we enforce the law in any crime.

During an otherwise typical rebuke of Democratic and Republican leadership in Washington, Cruz paused to heap praise on longtime Senate Democrats who he said had shown principle: Ted Kennedy, Mike Mansfield and Robert Byrd. He said all three of the former senators would have rejected President Barack Obama's approach to separation-of-powers issues.

"What is amazing is how servile the entire Democratic Party is right now. I guess it’s just the ends justify the means," he said.

Cruz was equally unsparing with his critique of Republicans who say he might crush Republicans down-ballot if he's the party's nominee. Cruz pointed out that Bob Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney were "clobbered in the purple states" that Republicans need to win, and he argued that a more conservative candidate would give like-mined voters a better reason to run out.

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo
And to get this out of the way before anyone else says it I'm pretty sure if Hillary can handle the 11+ hours of Bengazhi committee rodeo bullshit she can handle the special ed Olympics the GOP has lined up.

paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007
im kind of bearish on hillarys chances in the general, because if theres one thing history has taught me its that this country is deranged, but trump has not yet had to compete in a situation where hes been pressed to answer questions more complex than "if america was a lady, would you kiss her with tongue"

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin

Boomstick Quaid posted:

Then why was Bernie beating Republicans in those same match ups?
Obama was losing in hypothetical matchups to loving John McCain most of the winter of 2007-2008. Until the media cycle began focusing on just these two candidates, the 1v1 debates, and their contrasting policy positions, only then did you see Obama maintain the edge.

paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007

he praised ted "chappaquiddick" kennedy. kill the rino, slash his throat.

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo
Trump would have melted into a puddle if he had to sit in a committee for 11 hours. The dude is probably one of the biggest panzies to ever run for office. He's loving grossed out by the concept of women using the bathroom lol.


Oh and he complained he had to stand for a long time during a debate :(

Nolan Arenado
May 8, 2009

Platystemon posted:

I don’t know what’s the worst part of this: that’s it’s from Santorum, that he bemoans not wearing a sweater vest, or that he took the photo while travelling 53 mph.

Are you really surprised that Rick Santorum is the kind of guy who sets his cruise control two miles below the speed limit? His campaign can't afford speeding tickets!

InsanityIsCrazy
Jan 25, 2003

by Lowtax

Venom Snake posted:

And to get this out of the way before anyone else says it I'm pretty sure if Hillary can handle the 11+ hours of Bengazhi committee rodeo bullshit she can handle the special ed Olympics the GOP has lined up.

hillary handling things doesnt matter, what matters will be the next ten months of clickbait and what they believe is the most moneygrabbing for headlines

trumps bullshit has been doing swell for that so far, even when theyve attacked him

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

InsanityIsCrazy posted:

hillary handling things doesnt matter, what matters will be the next ten months of clickbait and what they believe is the most moneygrabbing for headlines

trumps bullshit has been doing swell for that so far, even when theyve attacked him

Yeah because nobody in the Dem primary wants to stop the GOP while they are loving up. Bernie has done well to use the insanity to help make him and his positions a lot more attractive (which is smart on his part) but when the general election rolls around and it's just 1v1 Trumps shitck falls apart because he can't bully anyone any more.

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

Jumpingmanjim posted:

I'm curious, at what point did each of you decide that Trump's candidacy was serious? (or haven't yet)?

Sometime August - September I started thinking he had a strong possibility of winning.

E: Head to head matchups for general are still meaningless people.

InsanityIsCrazy
Jan 25, 2003

by Lowtax

Venom Snake posted:

Yeah because nobody in the Dem primary wants to stop the GOP while they are loving up. Bernie has done well to use the insanity to help make him and his positions a lot more attractive (which is smart on his part) but when the general election rolls around and it's just 1v1 Trumps shitck falls apart because he can't bully anyone any more.

ill believe that when i see it

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

InsanityIsCrazy posted:

ill believe that when i see it

I encourage you to watch the latest Benghazi committee were Clinton was cool and collected while the GOP people asking her questions were sweating bullets and pissing their pants.

paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007
i think the only people who give a poo poo about the benghazi commission are people who already know how they feel about it

everyone else will probably just agree with the first hot take they see w/r/t it

Top Bunk Wanker
Jan 31, 2005

Top Trump Anger

Venom Snake posted:

I encourage you to watch the latest Benghazi committee were Clinton was cool and collected while the GOP people asking her questions were sweating bullets and pissing their pants.

Hillary was always going to run rings around putzes like Trey Gowdy. Trump plays by different rules than House committees.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Venom Snake posted:

Yeah because nobody in the Dem primary wants to stop the GOP while they are loving up. Bernie has done well to use the insanity to help make him and his positions a lot more attractive (which is smart on his part) but when the general election rolls around and it's just 1v1 Trumps shitck falls apart because he can't bully anyone any more.

Bernie's insanity is making promises that the american want to get fulfilled.

Top City Homo
Oct 15, 2014


Ramrod XTreme

Boosted_C5 posted:

Taxing the poor is a stupid and terrible idea, but that doesn't change the fact that Carson's point about people without "skin in the game" voting to make someone else pay more is a valid point.

It's absolute horse-poo poo that someone with no federal income tax liability, or even someone who is a net beneficiary of federal income tax dollars i.e. someone else's money, can endlessly vote to raise OTHER people's federal income tax liability.

Taxing the poor isn't the answer, but a constitutional amendment capping on the amount of income one can lose to federal taxation is.

And this wouldn't just benefit your average GOP voter - it would benefit Democrats too, because they suddenly aren't as frightening to people who may not have ever voted for them before if they know for a fact a Democrat majority in both houses and a POTUS can't possible raise their effective federal income tax rate beyond X%

federal taxes are used to smooth out the distribution of low income states with huge poverty and high income states with huge wealth

1/3rd of state budgets are payed by federal taxation with the southern states receiving a larger contribution of federal money than they give in.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/which-states-are-givers-and-which-are-takers/361668/

federal tax bracket from 0-9,275 is 10%
9275-37650 is 15%

add the regressive state taxes averaging another 12% in some states to the federal taxes is a good way to start nationwide riots
http://www.itep.org/whopays/

taxes are already either flat as gently caress or regressive
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/04/04/u-s-tax-code-isnt-as-progressive-as-you-think/
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-how-the-states-destroy-the-fairness-20150413-column.html

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

etalian posted:

Bernie's insanity is making promises that the american want to get fulfilled.

that's what all the candidates are doing.

paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007

Top Bunk Wanker posted:

Hillary was always going to run rings around putzes like Trey Gowdy. Trump plays by different rules than House committees.

idk man there was a point where they were reading their personal benghazi fanfiction at her. poo poo was surreal.

SHY NUDIST GRRL
Feb 15, 2011

Communism will help more white people than anyone else. Any equal measures unfairly provide less to minority populations just because there's less of them. Democracy is truly the tyranny of the mob.

Yeah we've talked about this before. Trump has been running circles around real opponents and hasn't ran into anyone yet who won't automatically run into every rake he throws out. Jeb makes Gowdy or whoever look clever.

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

Top Bunk Wanker posted:

Hillary was always going to run rings around putzes like Trey Gowdy. Trump plays by different rules than House committees.

Trump is a bully, what did you think Trey was trying to do?


etalian posted:

Bernie's insanity is making promises that the american want to get fulfilled.

I meant that Bernie was using the GOP's insanity to highlight that he is cool and good.

William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"

Subvisual Haze posted:

New Polls from NBC/Marist saying pretty much the exact same things the Fox polls on Friday did!

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/110-cruz-and-trump-vie-in-ia-trump-nh-favorite-clinton-and-sanders-competitive/


quote:

Cruz does better among likely GOP caucus-goers in Iowa who support the Tea Party, identify as conservative, are white Evangelical Christians, are men, or college graduates. Trump is ahead among those who do not practice a religion, those who are unmarried, and moderates.

Donald J. Trump, your moderate Republican candidate for 2016.

Atheists for Trump: Together, we'll prove no omnipotent and omnibenevolent deity could exist!

richardfun
Aug 10, 2008

Twenty years? It's no wonder I'm so hungry. Do you have anything to eat?

Joementum posted:

That Sean Penn article is hilarious, by the way. His prose style is... unique.

Ah. Good to know I wasn't imagining things.

The bit where he talked about his penis and what they might do to it was particularly inspired...

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Hillary may be the large favorite to win, but there's always the potential for outside events close to Election Day to sink any candidate. New (actual) scandal, the economy suddenly tanking, a domestic terrorist attack, a sudden international setback etc.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Still holding out hope for Rubio to get off his rear end and boost his polling past Iowa and NH. A strong third place showing (or better) will further show that he's the establishment candidate with the strongest support.

Or maybe Christie will eat him and absorb his polling, I don't know I'm not a dietician so I cannot comment.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
Donald Trump: Hillary Clinton was enabler, 'not a victim' of adultery(RAPE)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNdPkWITFQk

Top City Homo
Oct 15, 2014


Ramrod XTreme

Pillowpants posted:

For Super Tuesday,

Trump is up 20 in Alabama
Alaska hasn't been polled in 7 months
Trump is up 13 in Arkansas
Colorado hasn't been polled since November but Carson was ahead
Trump is up 20 in Georgia
Trump is up 20 in MA
Trump up 7 in MN (Last poll November)
ND hasn't been polled
Trump is up 32-28 on Cruz in OK
Trump is up 34-26 on Cruz in TN
Trump is up 31-27 on Cruz in TX
Trump is up by 11 in VT
Trump is up 9 in VA
WY hasn't been polled in 7 months

in case anyone is curious. The states that haven't been polled in months are all caucus states.

imo elections would be better if the first caucuses were in Alaska.

EngineerSean
Feb 9, 2004

by zen death robot

Peachstapler posted:

Obama was losing in hypothetical matchups to loving John McCain most of the winter of 2007-2008. Until the media cycle began focusing on just these two candidates, the 1v1 debates, and their contrasting policy positions, only then did you see Obama maintain the edge.

Yeah and, you know, the economy melted down.

paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007

Top City Homo posted:

imo elections would be better if the first caucuses were in Alaska.

do you want to be president enough to go eat moose-on-a-stick at the juneau county fair or w/e the gently caress they do for fun up there in the american siberia

InsanityIsCrazy
Jan 25, 2003

by Lowtax

Logikv9 posted:

Still holding out hope for Rubio to get off his rear end and boost his polling past Iowa and NH. A strong third place showing (or better) will further show that he's the establishment candidate with the strongest support.

Or maybe Christie will eat him and absorb his polling, I don't know I'm not a dietician so I cannot comment.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Subvisual Haze posted:

Hillary may be the large favorite to win, but there's always the potential for outside events close to Election Day to sink any candidate. New (actual) scandal, the economy suddenly tanking, a domestic terrorist attack, a sudden international setback etc.

She actually polled worse in Iowa/NH general election matchup than Bernie vs the more establishment republicans such as Rubio.

She does better against crazier options such as Trump but she has a worse edge than a Bernie ticket.

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

When people protested Trump going on SNL I was ambivalent, but now he is going to be on Fallon and watching Jimmy laugh and be nice to him would be soul destroying, I think.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Dolash posted:

If the Governor of Iowa actually did endorse Trump, that'd be a hell of a thing. Sure, it might help make the outcome a little closer, but more to the point it might also be a sign that some Republican politicians are starting to sense the coming Trumpocalypse and want to get on Donald's good side while the getting is good.

Trump's absolutely the kind of guy who'd remember if the governor endorsed him and that put him over the top to win Iowa. Or at the very least, in the event where he loses Iowa but wins the nomination, that might stay his hand from taking revenge on the whole state.

Oh yeah it would be chaos in the ranks. The politicians of the establishment wing of Iowa republicans have been lining behind Rubio (formally Walker). The big donors behind Branstad are behind Christie. The Evangelicals are behind Cruz.

If Branstad endorsed Trump that would be a thing alright. He has stated he wasn't going to endorse before the caucus plus Branstad is Toxic right now with approval in the low 30s.

eric
Apr 27, 2004
Lipstick Apathy

Venom Snake posted:


What Trump has going for him is that he's an outrageous buffoon so the press is constantly gawking at him giving him a lot of attention. Once Hillary is in the spot light a shitload again when the invariable poo poo slinging contest that will happen as the general nears she will probably become more competitive in the polls. There is also the fact that very little of the current GOP line up have a very united appeal to the base (with the more moderate candidates being outright despised) while Hillary and Bernie are both extremely well liked by the Dem base.

Is this the new hope for Trump to fall? Once Hillary starts getting more attention more people will realize how bad she is and will choose Trump. Someone made an excellent point about Clinton being bad at winning races she wasn't handed. This will be no different and she'll be getting stumped daily.

Dalaram
Jun 6, 2002

Marshall/Kirtaner 8/24 nevar forget! (omg pedo)

blue squares posted:

When people protested Trump going on SNL I was ambivalent, but now he is going to be on Fallon and watching Jimmy laugh and be nice to him would be soul destroying, I think.

He was already on Fallon, and it was pretty hilarious, TBH.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



William Bear posted:

Donald J. Trump, your moderate Republican candidate for 2016.

Atheists for Trump: Together, we'll prove no omnipotent and omnibenevolent deity could exist!

It's what we've been saying - you want to be tough on crime, you don't like immigrants, you put America first, but you don't care about creationism, abortion or any of that insane culture war bullshit, you finally have your candidate. That's why he scores well with the Internet crowd, too. The only thing that's surprising is that it took so long for someone to really fill this niche.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Trump has been handed debates because every candidate who bothered to attack him were either nobodies (kiddie table candidates), failures (Jeb!), or lovely (everyone else). This isnt counting the candidates too busy deciding whether to suck his dick or attack his hair.

He hasn't been put in any sort of non-clown car situation where he couldn't get away with empty rhetoric and lack of facts. This is why Hillary will stomp him, because in addition to that it will be harder to bully her.

eric
Apr 27, 2004
Lipstick Apathy

Logikv9 posted:

Trump has been handed debates because every candidate who bothered to attack him were either nobodies (kiddie table candidates), failures (Jeb!), or lovely (everyone else). This isnt counting the candidates too busy deciding whether to suck his dick or attack his hair.

He hasn't been put in any sort of non-clown car situation where he couldn't get away with empty rhetoric and lack of facts. This is why Hillary will stomp him, because in addition to that it will be harder to bully her.

Trump has already destroyed numerous career politicians and the strongest that are left are scared to challenge him. How many times has the media said "well Donald finally said something that is going to end his candidacy" then he brushes it off and gets stronger. It will be no different in the general election and if you thought he destroyed Jeb! wait until you see what he does to Clinton.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

eric posted:

Trump has already destroyed numerous career politicians and the strongest that are left are scared to challenge him. How many times has the media said "well Donald finally said something that is going to end his candidacy" then he brushes it off and gets stronger. It will be no different in the general election and if you thought he destroyed Jeb! wait until you see what he does to Clinton.

Trump is like the Hulk, attacking him only makes him stronger

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paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007
controversial i know but i dont think trump is magical

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