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Gibberish posted:Sanders for biggest debate bump/Clinton decline seems like pretty easy money, and is relatively low at 64% Ignore the poll's siren song! Turn away!!!
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Jan 18, 2016 19:03
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According the rules those polls don't count anyway Polling performance will be drawn from the "2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination" polling aggregate at realclearpolitics.com. Polling performance for each candidate will be calculated as his or her share of the nomination preference of polled voters at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on January 31, 2016 (excluding polls whose surveys were completed by the end of day of the debate
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Jan 18, 2016 19:05
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Necc0 posted:Ignore the poll's siren song! Turn away!!! Turn binary, PredictIt!! noooo
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Jan 18, 2016 19:08
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Gibberish posted:Sanders for biggest debate bump/Clinton decline seems like pretty easy money, and is relatively low at 64% I have to agree with the consensus against you  Hillary is a bad campaigner but she is at her best when her back is against the wall. So far she has played with Sanders with kid gloves but you know that she will bring out the full assault. There will be the direct attacks by surrogates, the raising of concerns of his electability, the whisper campaign of his readiness on foreign policy and the likelihood of getting an agenda through congress. At 33 cents this is a steal with Biden levels of potential returns
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Jan 18, 2016 19:29
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Did Huckabee just drop out? The dropout market is acting like he did, but I can't find any news.
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Jan 18, 2016 21:55
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Looks like it was a random panic. Thanks for selling me 250 Santorum Yes shares at 3c each, somebody!
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Jan 18, 2016 22:26
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Vox Nihili posted:Did Huckabee just drop out? The dropout market is acting like he did, but I can't find any news. I think he said that he would if he didn't place in the top 3. I just bought some NO at 58 because eventually it will sink into the market that it's not happening immediately
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Jan 18, 2016 22:30
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Vox Nihili posted:Looks like it was a random panic. Thanks for selling me 250 Santorum Yes shares at 3c each, somebody! 
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Jan 18, 2016 22:45
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Vox Nihili posted:Looks like it was a random panic. Thanks for selling me 250 Santorum Yes shares at 3c each, somebody!
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Jan 19, 2016 02:51
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Peachstapler posted:Not bad, but it'll be Huck. Although for a couple bucks I would've done the same to hedge things. Why Huckabee over Santorum? They're both going to drop out.
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Jan 19, 2016 02:53
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I explained that last time you asked and nothing has changed. 9 times out of 10 it comes down to money and they're both running out fast but Huckabee is in worse shape overall when you consider all the variables that keep the train moving.
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Jan 19, 2016 03:00
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Peachstapler posted:I explained that last time you asked and nothing has changed. 9 times out of 10 it comes down to money and they're both running out fast but Huckabee is in worse shape overall when you consider all the variables that keep the train moving. Yeah, you said he has negative cash flow, and so does Santorum. Both campaigns are completely broke. Compare the filings: http://www.fec.gov/fecviewer/CandidateCommitteeDetail.do?candidateCommitteeId=P20002721&tabIndex=3 http://www.fec.gov/fecviewer/CandidateCommitteeDetail.do?candidateCommitteeId=P80003478&tabIndex=3
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Jan 19, 2016 03:17
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Why do you think it'll be Santorum? Or do you own both because they're in the same boat (and are essentially the same candidate)? Media has been reporting more Huck campaign drama than Santorum, which plays into my position.
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Jan 19, 2016 03:22
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Lol, last I checked I had 23 bucks on Bernie getting the biggest bump from the debate, sitting at like 24 cents. I just opened Predictit to find I have like 90 bucks. lol
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Jan 19, 2016 03:26
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Peachstapler posted:Why do you think it'll be Santorum? Or do you own both because they're in the same boat (and are essentially the same candidate)? Media has been reporting more Huck campaign drama than Santorum, which plays into my position. I think it could easily be one or the other, so I don't plan to hold any shares on either of them (just noes on a bunch of other candidates).
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Jan 19, 2016 03:28
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Thump! posted:Lol, last I checked I had 23 bucks on Bernie getting the biggest bump from the debate, sitting at like 24 cents. Welcome to gambling.
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Jan 19, 2016 03:29
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Thump! posted:Lol, last I checked I had 23 bucks on Bernie getting the biggest bump from the debate, sitting at like 24 cents.  I know how ya feel mang I loaded up on Bernie speaking time and Bernie bump so it was a good day aside from the Huckabee Black Hour
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Jan 19, 2016 03:33
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Vox Nihili posted:Welcome to gambling. Gambling owns, my returns are crushing reasonable stock market gains
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Jan 19, 2016 03:35
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Vox Nihili posted:I think it could easily be one or the other, so I don't plan to hold any shares on either of them (just noes on a bunch of other candidates). My record is 2-0. 
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Jan 19, 2016 03:35
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Vox Nihili posted:Welcome to gambling. The last time I gambled was like 4 years ago in Vegas and I lost like 5 bucks and swore the poo poo off, but now I'm starting to think that maybe slot machines are stupid as poo poo and I'm just too lazy to gently caress with poker or blackjack or whatever. Betting on the political thoughts of stupid Americans however...
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Jan 19, 2016 03:37
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I am gonna start shifting away from the risky big gains (even though my zeitgeist spidy sense has been spot on) and trying to capitalize on large volume stupid long term bets at less than 10 cents that I can hold for weeks and put out sell offers at a few cents more. If my account keeps growing like it has been ill have enough throwaway cash to spread around when new markets open up
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Jan 19, 2016 03:39
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Thump! posted:The last time I gambled was like 4 years ago in Vegas and I lost like 5 bucks and swore the poo poo off, but now I'm starting to think that maybe slot machines are stupid as poo poo and I'm just too lazy to gently caress with poker or blackjack or whatever. Lol crowds are very predictable
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Jan 19, 2016 03:40
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If I didn't already lose money during the fuckabee incident I would still be loading up on Rand Paul to drop out next because unlike the other likely drop out contenders, he actually has another election that he can win that he needs to focus on, and it would make sense for him to shift resources over to his senate reelection campaign rather than let this linger on.
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Jan 19, 2016 03:50
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Yet he isn't facing any legit opposition in that race so he can afford to continue campaigning for the nomination.
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Jan 19, 2016 03:53
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On an Obama approval poll and then later  lol
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Jan 19, 2016 10:33
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Gibberish posted:On an Obama approval poll 
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Jan 19, 2016 14:12
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Nevermind, gently caress it, bet on polls
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Jan 19, 2016 17:42
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Yeah the Obama approval market is good for a quick doubling of your money every week specifically because of crazies like that who bet insane amounts of dollars on it. I just go with whatever was the second most popular option the week before, put 50 bucks in it at around 15 cents, and then say I'll sell when it reaches 30. It's done that every week for 3 weeks for me, so hopefully I can keep riding that crazy train to free money town.
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Jan 19, 2016 18:49
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah the Obama approval market is good for a quick doubling of your money every week specifically because of crazies like that who bet insane amounts of dollars on it. I just go with whatever was the second most popular option the week before, put 50 bucks in it at around 15 cents, and then say I'll sell when it reaches 30. It's done that every week for 3 weeks for me, so hopefully I can keep riding that crazy train to free money town. For teh win
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Jan 19, 2016 19:18
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People are legit losing their poo poo in that Obama market right now. Love it
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Jan 20, 2016 00:35
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Cruz has started to slide across the board with the Trump Palin endorsement. Man, if I can double 300 dollars on Cruz, I'm gonna dance like whoa.
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Jan 20, 2016 00:45
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How should the ARG NH poll be interpreted? Kasich was really strong, trailing Trump by 7. I don't know if this is an outlier, or is this the long awaited consolidation behind one establishment guy?
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Jan 20, 2016 00:48
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Zeta Taskforce posted:How should the ARG NH poll be interpreted? Kasich was really strong, trailing Trump by 7. I don't know if this is an outlier, or is this the long awaited consolidation behind one establishment guy? It's one data point, though clearly a very good onr for Kasich. The "poll only" chart for the race on 538 is a good guideline. With his other solid polls, he's probably the establishment frontrunner for the moment, but this isn't really consolidation yet. The markets have already reacted and put Kasich up 10c or so from his previous position, though.
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Jan 20, 2016 01:01
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Did they ever link the GOP nomination market for shorting?
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Jan 20, 2016 02:06
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Arkane posted:Did they ever link the GOP nomination market for shorting? yes
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Jan 20, 2016 02:11
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Arkane posted:Did they ever link the GOP nomination market for shorting? All non-binary markets are linked as of December.
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Jan 20, 2016 02:24
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This afternoon there was a rush in the Caitlyn Jenner speaking at the GOP convention market. It went from like 4 cents to 90 cents back down to 10 cents in about a half hour
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Jan 20, 2016 03:24
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Commie NedFlanders posted:This afternoon there was a rush in the Caitlyn Jenner speaking at the GOP convention market. It went from like 4 cents to 90 cents back down to 10 cents in about a half hour Next time you see something like that happen let us know about it in real time as it's happening 
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Jan 20, 2016 07:53
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  I have a few pages of this stuff. The Great Huckabee Panic of 1/18/16 was fruitful.
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Jan 20, 2016 08:02
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Ok, I need these Iowa caucuses to happen already. I have too much money tied up in them and I can't do anything else.
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Jan 20, 2016 15:44
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