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 Bernie YES is skyrocketing, time to buy or dump your NOs depending on how you think Iowa's gonna fall.Trump is now above .50 for the nom for the first time ever.
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Jan 21, 2016 22:16
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Thank christ I dropped my Iowa cruz YES shares after that latest CNN poll
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Jan 21, 2016 22:20
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I'm already waiting for Iowa to drop a hammer on my account --- no more shares of anything with "Iowa" in the handle for me. Good tip though.
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Jan 21, 2016 22:21
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RNOM is a complete clusterfuck right now. Trump above .50 and Rubio is at .26. Cruz NO at .85 looks like free money.
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Jan 21, 2016 22:24
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I sold my 300 Cruz NO for a 10c gain (per share), literally in the 5 minutes before the CNN/ORC poll showing Cruz down 11. Mah hart, mha sole. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 22:27 on Jan 21, 2016 |
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Jan 21, 2016 22:24
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I'm gonna sell my hillary iowa shares and just buy a ton of random poo poo!!
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Jan 21, 2016 22:54
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pathetic little tramp posted:I sold my 300 Cruz NO for a 10c gain (per share), literally in the 5 minutes before the CNN/ORC poll showing Cruz down 11. Same, except several hours. Held many of those shares for months. 
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Jan 21, 2016 22:55
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TRUMP.RNOM16 YES is currently at .58 lord have mercy
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Jan 21, 2016 23:15
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nachos posted:Thank christ I dropped my Iowa cruz YES shares after that latest CNN poll
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Jan 21, 2016 23:35
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remember you probably should buy RNOM.TRUMP NO because he is going to win.
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Jan 21, 2016 23:40
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Stereotype posted:remember you probably should buy RNOM.TRUMP NO because he is going to win. Uhhh
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Jan 21, 2016 23:59
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thethreeman posted:so, can anyone tell me how Nevada votes? If Trump wins IA, he also wins NH and SC, so why is TRUMP.SWEEP4 YES only 25c, while IACAUCUS16.GOP Trump 39c?  made a good return on this and debating exiting, but I see no reason to exit any trump bets before the palin/branstad effects start hitting polls. Even the CNN poll, across 5 days, only included 1 day post-Palin... I feel like immediately pre-results is the best time to get out of all trump bets
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Jan 22, 2016 00:19
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TrumpSweep (first 4 states) is approaching 50c, lord have mercy.
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Jan 22, 2016 01:58
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pathetic little tramp posted:I sold my 300 Cruz NO for a 10c gain (per share), literally in the 5 minutes before the CNN/ORC poll showing Cruz down 11.
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Jan 22, 2016 03:42
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Fuschia tude posted:Why would you would sell 'no' shares in a linked market unless you're downsizing 'no's across all candidates in the market? Doesn't it cost money? Unless you made like 2x or more profit from the initial price of the 'no'. Why wouldn’t you? If you’re just betting on one candidate, there’s no reason not to sell.
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Jan 22, 2016 04:00
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nachos posted:TRUMP.RNOM16 YES is currently at .58 I sold all mine at .30 I'm bad at this!!!1 I'm down 40 bucks!
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Jan 22, 2016 04:02
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Fuschia tude posted:Why would you would sell 'no' shares in a linked market unless you're downsizing 'no's across all candidates in the market? Doesn't it cost money? Unless you made like 2x or more profit from the initial price of the 'no'. Locks in profits in the longer term even if it "costs" you cash on hand to do so (assuming you have a bunch of other noes in the market).
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Jan 22, 2016 04:07
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Platystemon posted:Why wouldn’t you? If you’re just betting on one candidate, there’s no reason not to sell. True, if you only have shares in one candidate, that makes sense.
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Jan 22, 2016 04:08
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Give me one Jim Gilmore market. Just one, that's all I'm asking.
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Jan 22, 2016 04:33
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Is it $850 per market or $850 per contract?
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Jan 22, 2016 05:13
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Arkane posted:Is it $850 per market or $850 per contract? Contract. I'm maxed on a couple of the individual contracts in the "Next Republican to Drop" market. In this way you can effectively bet $1700 on various races, such as Sanders vs. Hillary, as there is generally an individual Yes/No contract for each of them.
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Jan 22, 2016 05:28
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Platystemon posted:Why wouldn’t you? If you’re just betting on one candidate, there’s no reason not to sell. Yeah I don't go in much for the spreading NOs around thing. I just bought a bunch of Cruz NO when they were cheap and I think he's pretty much at his ceiling until Feb 1 or some disastrous polls come out (and I don't think any more disastrous ones are coming, the rest will be within 3 of Trump). I'm actually hoping Cruz pulls off Iowa now because my Trump Sweep NO is hurtin bad.
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Jan 22, 2016 18:05
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Vox Nihili posted:I think it could easily be one or the other, so I don't plan to hold any shares on either of them (just noes on a bunch of other candidates). Get ready to witness the self-depreciating final stand.
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Jan 22, 2016 18:09
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Peachstapler posted:http://twitter.com/RickSantorum/status/690579068086042624/photo/1 oh rick
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Jan 22, 2016 18:12
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I wonder if Christie cancelling his campaign in NH to go home to NJ could count for Dropout?
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Jan 22, 2016 19:26
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pathetic little tramp posted:I wonder if Christie cancelling his campaign in NH to go home to NJ could count for Dropout?
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Jan 22, 2016 19:35
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New Monmouth/Fulmer poll has Clinton up by 9 in Iowa. That CNN/ORC poll looks like an outlier to me. Don't gently caress this up for me Hilldawg
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Jan 22, 2016 19:35
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User Error posted:New Monmouth/Fulmer poll has Clinton up by 9 in Iowa. That CNN/ORC poll looks like an outlier to me. It really is (an outlier). They're estimating a HUMONGOUS caucus turnout, like 3x what it was in 2012.
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Jan 22, 2016 19:45
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I'm staying away from anything involving Iowa and Democrats. Republicans on the other hand... COME ON CRUZ YOU BEAUTIFUL BASTARD  
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Jan 22, 2016 19:53
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pathetic little tramp posted:It really is (an outlier). They're estimating a HUMONGOUS caucus turnout, like 3x what it was in 2012. Emerson also has Clinton up by 9. I'm still not putting more money on it though, I decided to put it into Trump NH to be safer.
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Jan 22, 2016 19:55
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pathetic little tramp posted:I wonder if Christie cancelling his campaign in NH to go home to NJ could count for Dropout? So that's why I was able to buy Christie NO for 91. He has about a zero percent chance of dropping out before NH and Huck has already said he would if he doesn't finish in the top 3 in Iowa. Which is close to 100%. So zero percent Christie drops out before Huck.
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Jan 22, 2016 19:58
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Zeta Taskforce posted:So that's why I was able to buy Christie NO for 91. The trick is you don't need to actually drop out, you just need to announce your campaign is suspended and leave it that way for 5 days according to the rules.
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Jan 22, 2016 19:59
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This is probably news to no one, but the conventional wisdom is that Sanders' ground game isn't as good as Obama's, but ... it's still pretty good. Iowa is weird in that the caucuses are dominated by interest groups organized by turnout operations. So I see it as a toss-up. Which is why I'm skeptical about Trump. Trumpstaffel are skyrocketing the price now. But the reporting I've read on the Cruz ground game is that they're fanatical and everywhere, and Trump is basically doing nothing.
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Jan 22, 2016 20:12
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Omi-Polari posted:This is probably news to no one, but the conventional wisdom is that Sanders' ground game isn't as good as Obama's, but ... it's still pretty good. Iowa is weird in that the caucuses are dominated by interest groups organized by turnout operations. So I see it as a toss-up. I thought Trump had the second best ground game? My view is Hillary v Bernie in Iowa is a toss-up, but so is Cruz v Trump. If you can get NOs on any of those 4 for 0.40ish or less, it's a good buy.
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Jan 22, 2016 20:33
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A Time To Chill posted:I thought Trump had the second best ground game? http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/politics/donald-trumps-iowa-ground-game-seems-to-be-missing-a-coach.html quote:Mr. Trump, who Iowa polls show is neck-and-neck with Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, may well win the caucuses, now less than three weeks away. But if he does, it will probably be in spite of his organizing team, which after months of scattershot efforts led by a paid staff of more than a dozen people, still seems amateurish and halting, committing basic organizing errors. BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 20:42 on Jan 22, 2016 |
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Jan 22, 2016 20:40
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Omi-Polari posted:Slightly old but: Hmm that is worrisome. I really wanna keep my 300 Cruz NO shares at an average of 0.38 and let it ride. But now I'm worried I should sell. Ugh gambling is hard.
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Jan 22, 2016 20:44
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A Time To Chill posted:Hmm that is worrisome. I really wanna keep my 300 Cruz NO shares at an average of 0.38 and let it ride. But now I'm worried I should sell. Ugh gambling is hard. But my advice might be bad. BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 21:15 on Jan 22, 2016 |
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Jan 22, 2016 21:08
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I am still building a position betting that Sanders does not have the biggest bump after the ABC debate. From what I can tell, exactly one poll has come out that has Clinton +1 and Sanders -1.3. With this actual data point and Hillary making sharper attacks, I don't know why this is still at 40. Plus it will pay out in just 9 days
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Jan 22, 2016 21:31
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I am still building a position betting that Sanders does not have the biggest bump after the ABC debate. From what I can tell, exactly one poll has come out that has Clinton +1 and Sanders -1.3. With this actual data point and Hillary making sharper attacks, I don't know why this is still at 40. Plus it will pay out in just 9 days Bernie markets are irrational. A couple weeks ago, him not winning the general election was valued at only 72¢.
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Jan 22, 2016 21:51
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| # ? May 30, 2024 21:14 |
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My new strat is just gonna be to put out buy orders at 1 cent for 500 shares or something on highly unlikely, long term polls and just hope that one of them flips randomly and then just walk away with the profit before it can end or flip again Someone tell me why this is a bad idea and yes i know i just described buy low sell high Gibberish has issued a correction as of 22:03 on Jan 22, 2016 |
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Jan 22, 2016 21:56
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