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It's behind a paywall, but Financial Times has an article claiming that Russia asked Assad to step down, but was refused. The sources are anonymous "western intelligence officials," which is not the most reliable, but it's interesting nonetheless.
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Jan 23, 2016 08:50
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Promontory posted:It's behind a paywall, but Financial Times has an article claiming that Russia asked Assad to step down, but was refused. The sources are anonymous "western intelligence officials," which is not the most reliable, but it's interesting nonetheless. Why would Assad have any confidence that the Russians wouldn't just go all Hafizullah Amin on his rear end?
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Jan 23, 2016 09:47
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1. Have we discussed how Switzerland was able to stave off terrorist attacks in 1970 through PLO support yet? 2. Should we be expecting an attempted coup against Rouhani? 3. Is Sissi still trying to solve Egypt's economic/slum problems by continuing the construction of a new Cairo? 4. Is there any place in the Middle East where new irrigation/desalinization plants/projects are being strung up, as they will become extremely vital for the survival of all the countries there? 5. So the UN was playing second fiddle to Assad all along? Color me loving surprised.
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Jan 23, 2016 10:57
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Count Roland posted:Their media is lively but heavily censored. This will be big news, and hardliners and reformist types will go back and forth over it. The New Yorker just did a great and incredibly heartbreaking profile of an Iranian journalist recently, and it's a must read: http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/04/war-of-words-annals-of-activism-laura-secor
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Jan 23, 2016 14:40
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:Why would Assad have any confidence that the Russians wouldn't just go all Hafizullah Amin on his rear end? When all this started I doubt they could - but they are slowly getting into that position where Assad is totally at their mercy. Dear intelligence agent reading this - tell that to Bashar - let paranoia finally break that fucker. Elections everywhere - Ukraine, Syria, every nation hosting the US military. Global democracy or bust. Grouchio posted:5. So the UN was playing second fiddle to Assad all along? Color me loving surprised. One theme of the Arab Spring was popular sovereignty vs. authoritarian sovereignty. The UN and general institution mindsets always go with the latter. Mc Do Well fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Jan 23, 2016 14:44
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McDowell posted:Dear intelligence agent reading this - tell that to Bashar - let paranoia finally break that fucker. Elections everywhere - Ukraine, Syria, every nation hosting the US military. Global democracy or bust.
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Jan 23, 2016 15:00
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Tigey posted:I am sure the goal of any intelligence agents reading this is global democracy. The fact that for many it is not is why we need revolution.
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Jan 23, 2016 15:15
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redscare posted:No insignia of any kind on any of those Russians. They haven't been following it when fighting people who do follow it, why would they when fighting people who don't? "Pretend not to be Russia troops while obviously being Russian troops" is currently Russia's one weird trick.
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Jan 23, 2016 15:21
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McDowell posted:The fact that for many it is not is why we need revolution. Want, not need. Which is why it's not happening.
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Jan 23, 2016 15:29
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Friendly Tumour posted:Want, not need. Which is why it's not happening. It is a need - the need for every individual to have a moral responsibility for civilization. Women already have great biological sacrifices to maintain humanity - I envision a state where everyone gets firearms and first-aid training when they come of age - and males receive a remotely controlled vas deferens valve. Reproduction should require license.
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Jan 23, 2016 15:36
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Warbadger posted:They haven't been following it when fighting people who do follow it, why would they when fighting people who don't? "Pretend not to be Russia troops while obviously being Russian troops" is currently Russia's one weird trick. The idea of unmarked troops is to basically give your opponents an out to not respond immediately. A straight-up invasion of Crimea would've drawn a swift response, but the Green Men were just enough of an excuse to let the West not respond to it quickly.
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Jan 23, 2016 15:38
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A brave new world awaits us in the future. Reproductive rights will be granted to the survivors of gladiatorial murderfuck battle-royales waged with weaponized attack wombs. Anime is real.
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Jan 23, 2016 15:44
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sparatuvs posted:Russian Forces rolling into Salma, Latakia. There is a video of that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygQpF3J4A_M
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Jan 23, 2016 16:15
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redscare posted:No insignia of any kind on any of those Russians. They are in uniform and clearly distinguishable as a combatant and not a civilian. There is no violation for not having insignia.
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Jan 23, 2016 16:50
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Grouchio posted:1. Have we discussed how Switzerland was able to stave off terrorist attacks in 1970 through PLO support yet? No, please elaborate. quote:4. Is there any place in the Middle East where new irrigation/desalinization plants/projects are being strung up, as they will become extremely vital for the survival of all the countries there? There's a lot of projects going on in the Gulf right now, especially the UAE. And about the UN thing, it's a single report, mismanaged by a single UN office. I don't think this is enough to paint the entire institution as a whole. Friendly Tumour posted:Want, not need. Which is why it's not happening. It is the only real end goal to all this madness, as it serves as the least bad option for venting political ideologies and as a non-violent playing board for various political factions to wage combat. Without the presence of some sort of popular political representation, states must rely on economic and deeply ideological identities, which are both considerably precarious. Shageletic fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Jan 23, 2016 16:58
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I'll bet any amount of money on Erdogan using the opportunity to kill as many Kurds as possible and let the US do any actual heavy lifting, assuming that this isn't just a diplomatic ploy. U.S. says prepared for military solution against Islamic State in Syria [in the event that peace talks fail]
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Jan 23, 2016 17:34
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redscare posted:No insignia of any kind on any of those Russians. Except if you actually read the Geneva conventions you don't need insignia indicating national origin. Warbadger posted:They haven't been following it when fighting people who do follow it, why would they when fighting people who don't? "Pretend not to be Russia troops while obviously being Russian troops" is currently Russia's one weird trick. Following the geneva conventions is now a weird trick? Seriously this is pretty easy to google, it's not a violation. Panzeh posted:The idea of unmarked troops is to basically give your opponents an out to not respond immediately. A straight-up invasion of Crimea would've drawn a swift response, but the Green Men were just enough of an excuse to let the West not respond to it quickly. The west never gave a poo poo about crimea, an invasion was not done because it would have been stupid to do so, a majority of the people there wanted to leave Ukraine after what happened to a leader they elected overwhelmingly (something like 80-90% voted Yanukovych). Where would this "swift response" have come from? Europe? lmao Zeroisanumber posted:I'll bet any amount of money on Erdogan using the opportunity to kill as many Kurds as possible and let the US do any actual heavy lifting, assuming that this isn't just a diplomatic ploy. We are probably going to have boots on the ground if anyone but Bernie wins, and even he might have his hand forced. e: for a source there's a 2004 red cross paper on the subject of uniforms- basically if it's obvious you are a combatant there's no issue. Perfidy is another story- if they were to wear US insignia that would be a violation. TROIKA CURES GREEK fucked around with this message at 18:17 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Jan 23, 2016 18:14
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Zeroisanumber posted:I'll bet any amount of money on Erdogan using the opportunity to kill as many Kurds as possible and let the US do any actual heavy lifting, assuming that this isn't just a diplomatic ploy. I wonder what the idea is. The thread had been assuming the SDF is being readied to take on Raqqa, ideally with a lot more Arab support. Turkey wouldn't agree to anything that empowers the YPG even more. Unless it was made with their while somehow. So, US or Turkish troops? Sounds dodgy.
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Jan 23, 2016 18:16
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Apparently some countries in the area wouldn't mind an independent Kurdistan too much; according to this article the UAE were trying to sell weapons directly to the Autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq... http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...fales/79108590/ quote:The Iraqi Angle Cat Mattress fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Jan 23, 2016 19:26
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Biden: "No difference in actions between ISIS PKK and Al Nusra" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wh1XRV-jEUQ
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Jan 23, 2016 19:54
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Shageletic posted:It is the only real end goal to all this madness, as it serves as the least bad option for venting political ideologies and as a non-violent playing board for various political factions to wage combat. Without the presence of some sort of popular political representation, states must rely on economic and deeply ideological identities, which are both considerably precarious. Nope, there are plenty of other ways for people to vent their anger in Western societies. Protests, voting for right-wing populists, mocking politicians on twatter, becoming politically apathetic or involving yourself in some identity politics social cause all make you feel better, feel like you've done something, while actually having no effect on the injustices of our society or the way power and wealth are distributed (or rather, appropriated). They all require rather minimal amount of investment and provide a big emotional returns for the participants, while the structures of power remain unchanged. We will see a true revolution only when our relations both with the structures of power (that is, state institutions and corporations) and between each other change in a way that cannot be appropriated by the structures of power. The internet for example is an incredibly powerful creation that definately changed our relations with both of those, however the internet was also readily appropriated by those structures of power. That, or hunger. Hunger is a good way to make a revolution happen, though what follows is rarely pleasant.
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Jan 23, 2016 19:57
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Except if you actually read the Geneva conventions you don't need insignia indicating national origin. I guess if you ignore the guys fighting in or caught in civilian clothes you would have a point. Also there was an invasion, hence all the Russian troops, tanks, etc. showing up and establishing control of the area. Edit: Also unmarked civilian vehicles. For example, the one "Batman" got roasted in. Edit2: Yanukovych actually ran on a pro-EU integration/trade platform (hence a shitload of people getting super angry at him when he suddenly reversed course) and polling showed very little support in Crimea for becoming part of Russia prior to the invasion, with the only notable minority opinion being to gain greater autonomy in the Ukrainian government. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 20:25 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Jan 23, 2016 20:12
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sparatuvs posted:Biden: "No difference in actions between ISIS PKK and Al Nusra" 
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Jan 23, 2016 20:16
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A good article today from the NYTimes on Saudi money being channeled through the CIA to the rebels: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/24/world/middleeast/us-relies-heavily-on-saudi-money-to-support-syrian-rebels.html
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Jan 23, 2016 20:21
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:We are probably going to have boots on the ground if anyone but Bernie wins, and even he might have his hand forced. What's the biggest difference here between Sanders, Obama and Hillary? They all seem pretty similar to me wrt foreign policy. Obama was pretty reliably against ground troops except for the times when he wasn't
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Jan 23, 2016 20:55
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Flavahbeast posted:What's the biggest difference here between Sanders, Obama and Hillary? They all seem pretty similar to me wrt foreign policy. Obama was pretty reliably against ground troops except for the times when he wasn't apart from small scale spec ops stuff, we have kept boots off the ground, i would say he has kept his promise.
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Jan 23, 2016 21:06
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Dapper_Swindler posted:apart from small scale spec ops stuff, we have kept boots off the ground, i would say he has kept his promise. I'm mostly referring to http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/barackobama/3527638/Barack-Obama-plans-20000-troop-surge-to-boost-Afghan-effort.html
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Jan 23, 2016 21:09
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Flavahbeast posted:What's the biggest difference here between Sanders, Obama and Hillary? They all seem pretty similar to me wrt foreign policy. Obama was pretty reliably against ground troops except for the times when he wasn't Bernie's foreign policy is a bit less interventionist, but he still voted for the NATO bombing of Kosovo in 1999 (one of his staffers resigned in protest over this) and he voted for intervention in Afghanistan in 2001. He supports airstrikes on ISIL, but he wants local countries like Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to handle the fighting against ISIL. It sounds like a good strategy, but when we tried to actually make it happen Turkey restarted the war with the PKK, and Saudi Arabia invaded Yemen. I'd settle for him saying "socialist solidarity" and that he'd continue to back the YPG.  It seems like originally Obama's plan was to avoid intervention in the Middle East, get the US out of the Middle East and refocus on Asia and the Pacific Rim. Then the Arab Spring happened, and we've been slowly dragged back into the Middle East and incrementally increasing our intervention. However, it seems like we're still trying to make things work when we know they probably won't (for example: the "train and equip" program, trying to get Turkey to fight against ISIL, arming the "Syrian Arab Coalition" who are totally not tied at the hip to the YPG no sir, continuing to send all the stuff meant for Iraqi Kurdistan though Baghdad first to preserve the "Iraq is a unified country" idea, etc) and only recently has Obama settled on a strategy that seems like it has a chance of working long term. Well, part of a strategy at least, nobody knows how to solve Syria.
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Jan 23, 2016 21:10
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Friendly Tumour posted:Nope, there are plenty of other ways for people to vent their anger in Western societies. Protests, voting for right-wing populists, mocking politicians on twatter, becoming politically apathetic or involving yourself in some identity politics social cause all make you feel better, feel like you've done something, while actually having no effect on the injustices of our society or the way power and wealth are distributed (or rather, appropriated). Don't forget masturbating to anime.
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Jan 23, 2016 21:17
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fade5 posted:Hillary has always been a bit more Hawkish than Sanders and Obama. Hillary was a large force behind us intervening in Libya, and Hillary was pushing for a no-fly zone in Syria after we did it in Libya. (In retrospect, we probably should have done a Syrian no-fly zone, so point to Hillary.) Actually she says she's still pushing for a Syrian no-fly zone, but that doesn't exactly work now that Russia is flying over Syria too. (And unlike the Republicans, she is not willing to start World War 3 over Syria). Basically, I expect her to choose intervention over non-intervention if the question comes up. The Kosovo bombing was a big deal for pacifists, not so much was Afghanistan in 2001. At that time, everyone agreed that Osama was hostis humani generis.
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Jan 23, 2016 21:37
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fade5 posted:Boo, come on Biden. He's right.
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Jan 23, 2016 22:12
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Shageletic posted:The New Yorker just did a great and incredibly heartbreaking profile of an Iranian journalist recently, and it's a must read: http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/04/war-of-words-annals-of-activism-laura-secor Thanks for this. Wow.
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Jan 23, 2016 22:14
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Latakia front collapse in front of Russian & SAA offensive. https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/690936498535817216 
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Jan 23, 2016 22:59
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sparatuvs posted:Latakia front collapse in front of Russian & SAA offensive. http://southfront.org/map-decisive-days-in-battle-for-latakia-syria/  It really is astounding seeing the rebels straight-up collapse on the Latakia front, now the question has become "can they continue to hold to Jisr al Shugour and even Idlib"? This is the big difference Russia has made, the gains the SAA makes now stay gains instead of being reversed a few days later. I honestly don't know what (if anything) the rebels can do about this, it seems like the momentum has completely turned against the rebels.
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Jan 23, 2016 23:49
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So I guess Obama gets to eat poo poo and watch Assad & Putin win. Lmao red lines gonna get drawn, in Syrian blood
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Jan 23, 2016 23:52
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Twitter embedding is broken for me right now it seems, but there's reports that there's rioting in Algiers following a local derby match. Security forces opened fire on people. Some video and stuff floating around. Algeria is sitting on pretty precarious ground as Bouteflika doesn't have much life left in him, but this doesn't seem to be related.
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Jan 23, 2016 23:58
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Assad still controls more than half of the population, and the rest is split between various rebels (up to Al Nusra), ISIS and Kurds. You can't end the war in Syria without negotiations anyway.
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Jan 23, 2016 23:59
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Miruvor posted:A good article today from the NYTimes on Saudi money being channeled through the CIA to the rebels: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/24/world/middleeast/us-relies-heavily-on-saudi-money-to-support-syrian-rebels.html This is a good article. Some points that stood out:
This is all stuff I think most people have suspected for sometime, but it's still nice to see it in the New York Times. This is why I always found the narrative that the U.S., through inaction, allowed the Gulf states to subvert and co-opt early rebel coalitions and hence destroyed any hope of a united secular rebel force overblown. The CIA seems to prefer working through local intelligence networks, who have regional expertise, for example how the funneled aid to the mujaheddin through the ISI. Allowing the Saudis to take point makes sense even if it didn't work out. Quite likely an American led effort would have fared just as badly.
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Jan 24, 2016 00:08
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Cippalippus posted:Assad still controls more than half of the population, and the rest is split between various rebels (up to Al Nusra), ISIS and Kurds. You can't end the war in Syria without negotiations anyway. The Russian air force begs to differ.
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Jan 24, 2016 00:11
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Friendly Tumour posted:The Russian air force begs to differ. Bring out the Trump card...the power...the devastation. Acts of terror shape the mass perception of reality.
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Jan 24, 2016 00:18
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