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McDowell posted:Bring out the Trump card...the power...the devastation. Acts of terror shape the mass perception of reality. I'm going to reshape your rear end in a top hat in a minute.
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Jan 24, 2016 00:20
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fade5 posted:Was just about to post this. (Have link to the article and an imgur version instead). But isn't thus just a reverse of the rebel gains that they made last year?
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Jan 24, 2016 00:29
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Savy Saracen salad posted:But isn't thus just a reverse of the rebel gains that they made last year? Sure but Putin Al-Assad has been gaining ground consistently for a while. It's slow going but they are definitely pushing the rebs back. It really is just a matter of dropping enough bombs - if you have no qualms about civilian casualties and you have the means to drop enough bombs you can destroy any insurgency.
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Jan 24, 2016 01:32
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Anosmoman posted:Sure but Putin Al-Assad has been gaining ground consistently for a while. It's slow going but they are definitely pushing the rebs back. It really is just a matter of dropping enough bombs - if you have no qualms about civilian casualties and you have the means to drop enough bombs you can destroy any insurgency. Well you can roll some troops through the area and leave a garrison in a compound. Removing an insurgent from an area takes a lot more effort. Which is why the American invasion of Iraq failed and the retaking of Syria by Assad or the SDF will fail because neither of them will provide the actual conditions for removing an insurgency.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:22
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These rebels aren't good guys, glad they are getting stomped.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:44
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YPG Video: Congratulations on the 1st year anniversary of the Kobane victory. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiBu5-xZ94E
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Jan 24, 2016 04:33
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Cippalippus posted:Assad still controls more than half of the population, and the rest is split between various rebels (up to Al Nusra), ISIS and Kurds. You can't end the war in Syria without negotiations anyway.  This may just be the stupidest post you've made yet.Syria's population has sunk from 22 million before the war, to currently 16 million. Even if you want to be contrary, and argue that there's just a lot of displaced families still in the country, At least three million documented emigrants have left Syria, and Assad and Isis have murdered more than their fair share of Syrians. So yeah, maybe 8 million of those 16 million left hate Assad with a burning fury, he gives no fucks. He'll just massacre or move 'em until the numbers are down enough for him to reclaim control. The only negotiations he's willing to brook include him staying in power and ruling the country. The more support and victories he takes the more likely it is that he'll simply keep killing and displacing his way through the country until the only people left are those willing to let him keep ruling it.
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Jan 24, 2016 04:59
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So what happens when Putin-Assad starts pushing into/pushing the rebels into the Kurdish areas? I can't imagine the FSA/Kurds/Americans/whoever the gently caress is calling the shots up there would be too thrilled if Assad starts trying to assert direct control over the area again.
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Jan 24, 2016 05:06
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MechanicalTomPetty posted:So what happens when Putin-Assad starts pushing into/pushing the rebels into the Kurdish areas? I can't imagine the FSA/Kurds/Americans/whoever the gently caress is calling the shots up there would be too thrilled if Assad starts trying to assert direct control over the area again. Well that's a big question, isn't it. The Kurdish groups won't want anyone aside from themselves asserting control. Who else is going to step up? I've not heard the US or any other nation say they support Kurdish independence.
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Jan 24, 2016 05:57
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I'd imagine that would be the point where Putin would pull the leash for a while. The rebel forces tend to be quite controversial whereas the Kurds are something of a fan favorite for the west. When things are wrapping up it may be 'suggested' to Assad that he wait until people's attention is drawn elsewhere before finishing up. Thought in the end he would be compelled to retake the east, if for no other reason than it would likely be a havens for people who hate him. Ikasuhito fucked around with this message at 06:53 on Jan 24, 2016 |
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Jan 24, 2016 06:37
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Ikasuhito posted:I'd imagine that would be the point where Putin would pull the leash for a while. The rebel forces tend to be quite controversial whereas the Kurds are something of a fan favorite for the west. When things are wrapping up it may be 'suggested' to Assad that he wait until people's attention is drawn elsewhere. Even if everyone was willing to look the other way, the SAA would probably be too exhausted at the end of a civil war to do anything about the Kurds. Also, there will probably be a nigh-eternal pacification campaign of the Sunni half of the country that Assad "controls". Even if the regime was given control of the entire country, I don't think it would want the additional headache. Then there's also the fact that between the west and Russia, at least someone would be likely to intervene. I think the most likely end game is an autonomous region that has sovereignty in pretty much everything but name, unless Turkey finds a way to intervene.
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Jan 24, 2016 06:51
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Lustful Man Hugs posted:Even if everyone was willing to look the other way, the SAA would probably be too exhausted at the end of a civil war to do anything about the Kurds. Also, there will probably be a nigh-eternal pacification campaign of the Sunni half of the country that Assad "controls". Even if the regime was given control of the entire country, I don't think it would want the additional headache. Then there's also the fact that between the west and Russia, at least someone would be likely to intervene. I think the most likely end game is an autonomous region that has sovereignty in pretty much everything but name, unless Turkey finds a way to intervene. That is sort of the twist, the Kurds can demand a lot but ultimately they are going to have to find a balance between Assad and Erdogan. Ultimately, "politically independent" in all but name is probably their best solution.
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Jan 24, 2016 06:58
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Ikasuhito posted:I'd imagine that would be the point where Putin would pull the leash for a while. The rebel forces tend to be quite controversial whereas the Kurds are something of a fan favorite for the west. When things are wrapping up it may be 'suggested' to Assad that he wait until people's attention is drawn elsewhere before finishing up. People rising up during the Arab Spring were fan favorites at the beginning as well. It counts for nothing if there's no political will to do anything. If Assad says the PKK are terrorist warlords who are burning down Arab homes, and that the regime needs to push them out to provide security for the people being oppressed and bring rule of law, who's going to do anything but talk? If ISIS and other opposition groups are so weakened that the regime can turn its back on that fight to focus on the YPG, what interest does the US have in supporting the PYD? It's certainly no more of an interest for the US than they had in supporting Sunni Arab forces against Assad. Nobody would do anything to stop him. That said, this I think is the biggest factor. Lustful Man Hugs posted:Also, there will probably be a nigh-eternal pacification campaign of the Sunni half of the country that Assad "controls". Even if the regime was given control of the entire country, I don't think it would want the additional headache. There seems to be no route to the regime being in such good position that it can make its top priority regaining control of the north. It's certainly a goal, but it's not really an achievable one. Assad abandoned the north to avoid starting a fight with the Kurds when protests kicked off since they weren't in position to fight both wars at the same time, and the underlying conditions that made that happen have not changed, and aren't likely to change any time soon. Even if the regime finds itself in a position later on where it's capable of going anywhere in the country that it wants to, which isn't the case now, they're still going to be subject to a campaign of terrorists attacks from guerrillas, and that's going to take the majority of the focus from the military. And even achieving that level of control would be a stunning success for the regime. It's far more likely that they will be incapable of stopping the insurgency from controlling pockets of the country, ever, and that will demand the regimes full attention as long as Assad is in power. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 07:16 on Jan 24, 2016 |
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Jan 24, 2016 07:13
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Volkerball posted:People rising up during the Arab Spring were fan favorites at the beginning as well. It counts for nothing if there's no political will to do anything. If Assad says the PKK are terrorist warlords who are burning down Arab homes, and that the regime needs to push them out to provide security for the people being oppressed and bring rule of law, who's going to do anything but talk? If ISIS and other opposition groups are so weakened that the regime can turn its back on that fight to focus on the YPG, what interest does the US have in supporting the PYD? It's certainly no more of an interest for the US than they had in supporting Sunni Arab forces against Assad. Nobody would do anything to stop him. That said, this I think is the biggest factor. Wait this isn't this a contradiction, how is Assad going to turn on the Kurds when he is fighting an robust insurgency elsewhere (at least according to your logic)? Anyway, I assume what would stop him is that having to deal with the Sunni population and its resistance is enough of an issue on its own, and by allowing the YPG/PYD to exist he has leverage on Turkey. Assad is a complete sociopath, but he is also a survivor. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 07:38 on Jan 24, 2016 |
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Jan 24, 2016 07:34
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Ardennes posted:Wait this isn't this a contradiction, how is Assad going to turn on the Kurds when he is fighting an robust insurgency elsewhere (at least according to your logic)? I didn't say he would turn on the Kurds in that first paragraph, I was discussing the hypothetical scenario where he would be in position to divert his attention to the Kurds. I don't think that hypothetical will ever happen though, although it won't be due to a newfound respect from Assad for the rights of the Kurds to self-determination. But by the same token, the PYD isn't going to be a functioning state who can sleep well at night knowing they have arranged everything with everyone because of that instability that isn't going anywhere. Assad's inability to control the country means Rojava will be perpetually spinning around the toilet bowl hoping not to get flushed, unable to secure any real guarantee of safety from its neighbors.
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Jan 24, 2016 07:42
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Volkerball posted:I didn't say he would turn on the Kurds in that first paragraph, I was discussing the hypothetical scenario where he would be in position to divert his attention to the Kurds. I don't think that hypothetical will ever happen though, although it won't be due to a newfound respect from Assad for the rights of the Kurds to self-determination. But by the same token, the PYD isn't going to be a functioning state who can sleep well at night knowing they have arranged everything with everyone because of that instability that isn't going anywhere. Assad's inability to control the country means Rojava will be perpetually spinning around the toilet bowl hoping not to get flushed, unable to secure any real guarantee of safety from its neighbors. Well Assad clearly doesn't care about rights, but there is the simple realpolitik aspect of that the regime is stretched thin already and Russian support is both critical to him and conditional. In all honesty, I don't think Putin cares about the Kurds and if he does he sees them as useful leverage against Turkey. Ultimately, the Russian really don't gain anything (unlike going after Saudi/Gulf proxies or gaining military bases on the Mediterranean). In addition, the PYD/YPG's soldiers are experienced, and seems slowly getting better armed. They wouldn't be a push over, especially if the SAA has no real air support. In all honesty, I think the PYD/YPG has more to fear from Turkey who really doesn't want a more assertive Kurdish demi-state to deal with. As for Assad and demographics, supposedly roughly 60% of the remaining population is under his control, it doesn't mean they love him though. If anything I wouldn't be surprised most people left are just trying to keep their heads down, and are mostly focused on trying to survive.
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Jan 24, 2016 08:23
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Ardennes posted:Well Assad clearly doesn't care about rights, but there is the simple realpolitik aspect of that the regime is stretched thin already and Russian support is both critical to him and conditional. In all honesty, I don't think Putin cares about the Kurds and if he does he sees them as useful leverage against Turkey. Ultimately, the Russian really don't gain anything (unlike going after Saudi/Gulf proxies or gaining military bases on the Mediterranean). Well they've got the Russians who I don't think would have qualms with bombing the gently caress out of Rojava.
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Jan 24, 2016 08:48
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^^^Syria has their own air force, and the YPG are even less equipped to deal with a sustained bombing campaign than the opposition are, since they've never needed to deal with that.Ardennes posted:Well Assad clearly doesn't care about rights, but there is the simple realpolitik aspect of that the regime is stretched thin already and Russian support is both critical to him and conditional. In all honesty, I don't think Putin cares about the Kurds and if he does he sees them as useful leverage against Turkey. Ultimately, the Russian really don't gain anything (unlike going after Saudi/Gulf proxies or gaining military bases on the Mediterranean). I already addressed that the regime is stretched thin. But Russian aid, however "conditional" it may be, is certainly not conditional on not going after the Kurds. Russia sold weapons to the regime before the revolution, when Kurds weren't even citizens, and that's not going to change. There's hardly a relationship between the PYD and Putin, and it's certainly not as much of a relationship as they have with the US. The YPG also wouldn't be able to put up much of a fight. They gave up basically all of Rojava in a matter of months when ISIS was on the march, and the advance only stopped because of US airstrikes. Now imagine the same scenario except instead of US strikes coming in favor of the YPG, you get barrel bombs landing on Hasakah. The SAA would hardly need direct Russian intervention to get the PYD talking about assimilation into the Syrian state. But again, this is all hypothetical, because I don't think that the regime is ever going to be on such stable footing that it can address the Kurdish situation. I don't see how that last paragraph is relevant to anything. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 08:53 on Jan 24, 2016 |
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Jan 24, 2016 08:50
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:Well they've got the Russians who I don't think would have qualms with bombing the gently caress out of Rojava. They probably have some qualms, not from the idea of bombing as a concept, but rather what bombing the Kurds would achieve Volkerball posted:^^^Syria has their own air force, and the YPG are even less equipped to deal with a sustained bombing campaign than the opposition are, since they've never needed to deal with that. Russian aid is conditional on the fact that Putin will use resources to only his benefit, and it is hard to see an angle where he gets something out of going after the Kurds unless Turkey cuts some deal (and they would probably just openly bomb them anyway). There are some examples of cooperation between the YPG and Russia at this point, and it is hardly nothing especially after Turkey shot down that jet. The Kurds are playing both sides wisely enough and I wouldn't be surprised if they continued to do so. To be fair, the regime also gave up plenty of territory to ISIS as well, and the YPG has pulled some impressive advances even considering the airstrikes. The Syrian air force itself has largely been ground to a nub, barrel bombs are a sign of desperation. They are weapons of terror, but not particularly useful on the battlefield. Ultimately, the Syrians really did need the Russians to bail them out (air asset wise). As for the SAA winning against the YPG, they may if the West stood by but they probably wouldn't in all likelihood but even if they didn't it would likely still be a bitter fight, also it would sap resources Assad doesn't really have to spend at this point. The last paragraph addresses a discussion earlier on the page, it isn't controversial that Assad still controls essentially the majority of the population. However, how much support he has from them is a separate issue.
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Jan 24, 2016 09:17
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Hassan Khomeini has been disqualified and Rafsanjani approves.
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Jan 24, 2016 16:36
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MothraAttack posted:Hassan Khomeini has been disqualified and Rafsanjani approves. Is this final and confirmed? Lots of contradictory things coming out of Iran right now.
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Jan 24, 2016 16:54
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FaustianQ posted:Is this final and confirmed? Lots of contradictory things coming out of Iran right now. Tasnim news agency running it and some watchers find it credible.
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Jan 24, 2016 17:05
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MothraAttack posted:Tasnim news agency running it and some watchers find it credible. Well gently caress, I went and got optimistic in the wrong thread again.
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Jan 24, 2016 17:09
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The ethnic cleansing carried out by the Kurds is all Turkish propaganda, is that what the official D&D line is? https://philosproject.org/assyrian-christians-life-inside-a-war-torn-nation/
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Jan 24, 2016 18:40
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White Phosphorus posted:The ethnic cleansing carried out by the Kurds is all Turkish propaganda, is that what the official D&D line is? I think the official line is that all sides have done morally abject things but turning to a Christian ministry site for ammo in the centuries-long conflict between Assyrians and Kurds in Anatolia/northern Syria doesn't contribute a whole lot.
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Jan 24, 2016 18:58
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White Phosphorus posted:The ethnic cleansing carried out by the Kurds is all Turkish propaganda, is that what the official D&D line is? Not all Assyrians are on the same side. "Sootoro" is the Regime aligned Assyrian group, while the YPG aligned Assyrian organization is "Sutoro".
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Jan 24, 2016 19:02
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I think the thread has covered the on again off again confrontations between the Sootoro and the Asayish in Qamishli before - its mostly been about demarcation of their respective zones of influence and occasionally erupts into small fire fights
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Jan 24, 2016 19:15
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White Phosphorus posted:The ethnic cleansing carried out by the Kurds is all Turkish propaganda, is that what the official D&D line is? That is what the official DnD line is.
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Jan 24, 2016 20:18
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Friendly Tumour posted:That is what the official DnD line is. Literally one dude was saying that. I wasn't aware that Lascivious Sloth now speaks for all of DnD.
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Jan 24, 2016 20:59
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Captain Bravo posted:Literally one dude was saying that. I wasn't aware that Lascivious Sloth now speaks for all of DnD. You're welcome! Should anyone else have any questions about what the official DnD line is on any given issue, you know where to find me! Stay safe and Sagol!
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Jan 24, 2016 21:07
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MothraAttack posted:Hassan Khomeini has been disqualified and Rafsanjani approves. Link please.
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Jan 24, 2016 21:14
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MothraAttack posted:Hassan Khomeini has been disqualified and Rafsanjani approves. Quick note for bystanders that this news is all coming out now over the Assembly of Experts elections. All of the previous vetting news was over Iran's parliament. That said, Tasnim removed the story. There's 3 categories that the GC can list a candidate as. Qualified, disqualified, and "does not qualify," According to Arash Karami's sources, Khomeini was placed in the 3rd category. Meaning the GC is saying Khomeini is not qualified to run, but they aren't going to be the ones to bar him. That would seem a lot more likely given that Khamenei gave a speech in which he said Khomeini was OK to run. But we'll know for sure what's up with him, as well as whether there is truth behind the rumors that 10-15% of reformist candidates could be reinstated to run for Parliament, within the next 24 hours or so.
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Jan 24, 2016 21:19
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Torpor posted:Not all Assyrians are on the same side. Yes and those Arabs who may or may not have supported ISIS get their houses marked, burned, and bulldozed. You are good if you support the Kurds 100%, but if you are not they will kill/move you just like the regime. In fact, that's why Assad and Putin like the Kurds, they understand them. It's gently caress you got mine all the way down.
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Jan 24, 2016 21:21
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Captain Bravo posted:Literally one dude was saying that. I wasn't aware that Lascivious Sloth now speaks for all of DnD. Hold on, I wasn't saying this at all..
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Jan 24, 2016 21:27
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White Phosphorus posted:Yes and those Arabs who may or may not have supported ISIS get their houses marked, burned, and bulldozed. You are good if you support the Kurds 100%, but if you are not they will kill/move you just like the regime. In fact, that's why Assad and Putin like the Kurds, they understand them. It's gently caress you got mine all the way down. Well yeah, it's a civil war after all. That's sort of how these things go. Or rather, usually it's far worse than a few burned houses. I don't think there's any reason to think that Assad has any particular fondness of Kurds, aside from the fact that they are currently not shooting his dudes on sight.
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Jan 24, 2016 21:44
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White Phosphorus posted:Yes and those Arabs who may or may not have supported ISIS get their houses marked, burned, and bulldozed. You are good if you support the Kurds 100%, but if you are not they will kill/move you just like the regime. In fact, that's why Assad and Putin like the Kurds, they understand them. It's gently caress you got mine all the way down. Is there any evidence that the Kurds have ever, at any time, made a policy of killing civilians that supported ISIS? Or are you just pulling that out of your rear end? (Yes, I've posted before that I would still support them if they did, but I'm not in charge of YPG policy). Bulldozing houses is pretty drat tame considering the context of the Syrian civil war and the facts of life under ISIS control. Furthermore I find the idea that this is ethnic cleansing of arabs in retaliation for decades-old grudges, because A)if it's an ethnic cleansing it's a pretty incomplete one, and B) the army typically referred to as "the Kurds" isn't homogeneous and includes a fair number of arabs and ethnic minority groups among its ranks. And as to Volkerball's doom-and-gloom regarding the SAA's advances, now are you willing to admit that joining forces with terrorists and ISIS-alikes was a terrible strategic decision on the part of the rebels in spite of any short-term military advantage they may have garnered from it? You can blame the western powers for dithering if you like, but the window of time that the FSA was well and truly jihadist-free was quite small compared to the overall length of the Syrian civil war. If any good is to come out of this bloodbath, I hope it's that the next time a middle eastern nation rebels against a dictator, the rebels realize that if even 10% of their uprising consists of fundamentalist terrorists, they might as well be 100% terrorists in the eyes of the west, and they become unsupportable even if they're up against the second coming of Hitler.
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Jan 24, 2016 21:57
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Captain Bravo posted:
I understand that you're loving retarded, but that's not the matter at hand. I didn't say that Assad will lead the negotiations, I said that negotiations are needed to end the war because the Syrian Goverment isn't losing the war.
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Jan 25, 2016 00:08
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so ISIS released videos of the paris shooters exicuting prisoners in syria before the attacks were carried out. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/25/world/middleeast/isis-video-paris-attacks.html?_r=0  here is a poster their propaganda wing made.
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Jan 25, 2016 00:42
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So is this the part where I post that graphic again showing that Assad's government is responsible for 85% of the civilian deaths at any given time and that all extremist groups put together are responsible for 7% of the civilian deaths?
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Jan 25, 2016 00:47
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Liberal_L33t is just the modern day version of "Well if you didn't want your revolution crushed and your nation destroyed then you shouldn't have fought alongside the COMMIES!" For reference, a UN study showed that the Taliban were responsible for 75% of the civilian deaths in Afghanistan, and the Afghani government was responsible for a good chunk of the remainder, which makes the Assad government literally more evil than the Taliban.
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Jan 25, 2016 00:50
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