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Trump skips the debate and his pack of followers will only become more fervent that he's "not caving to the mainstream media" or something. More passionate and loyal than ever, they go to the polls in droves. Trump goes to the debate because "America needs to hear my message" and more people go on his side because Trump shines when it comes to defending and flipping attacks and character assassination. Either way, I'd bet Trump's numbers swell after this. Just my feeling, he's becoming a spin master.
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Jan 27, 2016 11:50
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And no I don't have any money on these markets because it's all tied up in IOWATRUMP.YES but I wish I had like 10 bucks in my account to throw at cheap TRUMPDEBATE.YES
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Jan 27, 2016 11:58
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The Trump debate market is good stuff. I'm no longer 100% sure he'll participate though so I'm considering selling the rest of my yeses. I tried to bet on the Obama approval polls like you guys were talking about but am down on that so far, though. Also, did Predictit just change their charts to candlesticks? Nice.
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Jan 27, 2016 18:22
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Shear Modulus posted:The Trump debate market is good stuff. I'm no longer 100% sure he'll participate though so I'm considering selling the rest of my yeses. Don't bet on the approval polls, it's completely insane.
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Jan 27, 2016 18:25
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Trump is going on O'Reilly's show tonight on Fox. Hmmm
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Jan 27, 2016 18:47
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drat my hubris!! I became so cocky and self aggrandizing after doing well early on, but my greed, lust, and egoism has taken its toll, robbing me of my winnings. Despite having ostensibly rational strategies, time and time again I caved to the emotional highs and lows that chased the market prices. How foolish of me to boast with pride about predicting the future! I know the truth is that only The Lord God knows what will be, and the Lord does not take kindly to such pride, arrogance, greed, and lust for money. Once again, as always, my sin has robbed me of my blessings Shame! Shame!!
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Jan 27, 2016 19:00
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I just got in big on Trump Debate - Yes. 
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Jan 27, 2016 19:02
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Also in case anyone wasn't aware of this: whenever you put in a price to buy or sell predictIt will automatically use that price as a limit and buy/sell any better deals should one come up once you actually execute the trade. The reason I'm pointing this out is because you can take advantage of this if you're ever caught in a frenzy and need to get in or out of a market fast. Instead of chasing the price by guessing where it is and hoping it'll still be there once you execute, simply put your purchase price at .99 if buying or .01 if selling and PI will automatically execute on whatever the best deal is.
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Jan 27, 2016 19:04
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Commie NedFlanders posted:drat my hubris!! lol what happened
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Jan 27, 2016 19:05
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Vox Nihili posted:Trump is going on O'Reilly's show tonight on Fox. Hmmm Glad I sold off all my NOs yesterday!
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Jan 27, 2016 19:11
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I completely divested myself from Iowa in order to play in the mud yesterday and it worked out. I just don't know if I want to buy back in; Cruz/Trump and Sanders/Clinton are so loving close I really can't guess which way it'll shake out.
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Jan 27, 2016 19:13
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Trump Debate is going to get 150,000 transactions over two days. What was Biden's volume at his peak?
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Jan 27, 2016 19:16
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Also if you really think Trump is going to be in the debate the speaking time market is the lower risk one to invest in. Trump shares are 8-10c right now and will rocket back up if he decides to go through with the debate.
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Jan 27, 2016 19:22
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Aliquid posted:Trump Debate is going to get 150,000 transactions over two days. What was Biden's volume at his peak? I think in the final frenzied crescendo it was about 140,000 transactions per day. drat, I think the website crashed - Edit: It came back
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Jan 27, 2016 19:47
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I think in the final frenzied crescendo it was about 140,000 transactions per day. Vox Nihili posted:Trump is going on O'Reilly's show tonight on Fox. Hmmm
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Jan 27, 2016 19:48
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How long do we think the "will Trump show up" market remain volatile? I've gotten in on YES at 10-20c and sold at ~30c a few times now. How much longer do you think I'll be able to do this?
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Jan 27, 2016 19:49
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A Time To Chill posted:How long do we think the "will Trump show up" market remain volatile? I've gotten in on YES at 10-20c and sold at ~30c a few times now. How much longer do you think I'll be able to do this? Maybe it already is, behind the scenes?
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Jan 27, 2016 19:53
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I want to know who the moron was who bought ~20 shares of TRUMP.DEBATE.YES at $.99 right when the market opened
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Jan 27, 2016 19:55
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New market: what will the average viewership be for the Fox News debate? Another bet that hinges on Trump's whims.
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Jan 27, 2016 19:56
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Necc0 posted:I want to know who the moron was who bought ~20 shares of TRUMP.DEBATE.YES at $.99 right when the market opened Me, sort of. I was the moron that bought 10 shares at 90. I've more than made it back by buying 100 share blocks in the teens and low 20s and selling them in the upper 20's.
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Jan 27, 2016 19:59
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If I have a large sell order at one price and I see a tiny amount of that order sold, does that mean the rest of the shares are "first in line" to be sold at that price?
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Jan 27, 2016 20:03
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Aliquid posted:If I have a large sell order at one price and I see a tiny amount of that order sold, does that mean the rest of the shares are "first in line" to be sold at that price? Yes
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Jan 27, 2016 20:04
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I realllllly don't think you guys need to hang onto those YESes any longer: https://twitter.com/risetoflyy/status/692422882253783040 edit: but the more I look at it, I can't find any better sources. It's all over twitter, but where's the primary here pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 20:12 on Jan 27, 2016 |
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Jan 27, 2016 20:09
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Aliquid posted:If I have a large sell order at one price and I see a tiny amount of that order sold, does that mean the rest of the shares are "first in line" to be sold at that price? Yep. e: Badly beaten because I didn’t refresh. A couple of tricks regarding priority: if you add a new sell order and you don’t have enough unlisted shares to cover it, PredictIt will cancel as much of your earliest‐listed shares as it takes to free them up. You can use this if you, for example, want to lessen the number of shares you have listed at a price, but don’t want to lose priority, create a dummy listing at $0.99 for the number of shares you want to cancel, then cancel the $0.99 listing. Consider placing large orders in multiple parts. This lets you cancel some but not all of them and keep priority on the remainder, and unlike the first trick, it works for buy offers. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 20:18 on Jan 27, 2016 |
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Jan 27, 2016 20:09
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pathetic little tramp posted:I realllllly don't think you guys need to hang onto those YESes any longer: I was set on holding my Yes's, but I saw this and immediately sold at a small profit.
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Jan 27, 2016 20:20
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Prime Sinister posted:I was set on holding my Yes's, but I saw this and immediately sold at a small profit. Because of a tweet by Ann Coulter and Scott Walker, posted on Freep? (I agree tho, he ain't showing at the debate)
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Jan 27, 2016 20:29
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Oh, he'll be there. https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule He hasn't even made a sincere effort to pencil in the basics for his supposed Thursday event. Thursday is tomorrow, in case anyone had forgotten.
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Jan 27, 2016 20:33
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pathetic little tramp posted:I realllllly don't think you guys need to hang onto those YESes any longer: lol freerepublic
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Jan 27, 2016 20:34
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Take it from the guy who was the most right about Biden: Trump will not be at the debate.
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Jan 27, 2016 20:36
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By my calculations, Rand will get a minimum of 19,000 votes. If turnout is 135K, this is 14%. 126K turnout and this is 15%. This assumes Rand is able to get his 10K college kids to caucus (which I believe is likelier to happen than not to happen - Ron got 9K college kid votes when college was not in session; this time there will literally be caucuses occurring in college dorms). And this assumes Rand is able to pick up half the Ron Paul 2012 voters age 30+ (he had 17K in 2012). Rand's ground game is really good, maybe the best. He has over 1000 precinct captains in over 2/3s of the 1600+ precincts. These aren't just voters, these are advocates of the campaign who will be caucusing, bringing family and friends to caucus and encouraging undecided or lower polling supporters to switch to Rand. If each of his Captains were able to bring 5 votes to their caucus, that's equal to a whole 5% of the total vote. This is a huge number. On top of all of this, Rand's volunteers will be making over 1 million calls into Iowa voters households. (There are only 3 Million voters in the state). And these aren't paid unenthusiastic staff, these are educated Rand supporters who care enough about him and his policies to engage the voters over the phones or at their doors.
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Jan 27, 2016 20:37
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Aliquid posted:By my calculations, Rand will get a minimum of 19,000 votes. If turnout is 135K, this is 14%. 126K turnout and this is 15%. It's amazing that these people are still bouncing around. Maybe they won't be as common on the site after they lose all their money on 2/1/16, though.
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Jan 27, 2016 20:39
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Rand 2nd in Iowa is this week's featured penny stock.
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Jan 27, 2016 20:47
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Jewel Repetition posted:Take it from the guy who was the most right about Biden: Trump will not be at the debate. Moment. Of. Triumph.
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Jan 27, 2016 20:52
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Vox you need to set up a Disqus avatar so I can spot you more easily in the comments. Gotta establish that brand, brah. Thnx 
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Jan 27, 2016 20:59
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the gently caress?
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Jan 27, 2016 21:01
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Gibberish posted:the gently caress?  SELL SELL SELL
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Jan 27, 2016 21:06
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Gibberish posted:the gently caress? It's not proof that he made it on the Trump debate participation market, that said: drat!
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Jan 27, 2016 21:12
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Zeta Taskforce posted:It's not proof that he made it on the Trump debate participation market, that said: drat! Could be 'shopped...it's that outrageous.
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Jan 27, 2016 21:15
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Zeta Taskforce posted:It's not proof that he made it on the Trump debate participation market, that said: drat! It's not proof of anything at all. 
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Jan 27, 2016 21:19
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Gibberish posted:the gently caress? This pisses me off!!!!!
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Jan 27, 2016 21:20
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