Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Intel&Sebastian
Oct 20, 2002

colonel...
i'm trying to sneak around
but i'm dummy thicc
and the clap of my ass cheeks
keeps alerting the guards!

OAquinas posted:

So you're saying it was a futile self-fulfilling gesture that died in the snow?

This thread is now cancelled because this post was cold as hell

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014

Grimey Drawer
I like that limiting people to bringing handguns is a "peaceful" protest to them.

trickybiscuits
Jan 13, 2008

yospos

Crabtree posted:

So how likely is it that the remaining four will try to frame up their suicides as evil gubment killing them before they could surrender? It seems like the most expedient and deceitful way they can avoid the consequences of their actions so of course they're already trying to convince themselves that's the best option.
If they're willing to die, they can charge the roadblocks and try to take a few agents or LEOs out with them. They want to avoid both death and punishment, but in the long run they can't so they're just putting it off as long as possible.

It's weird to read the beginning of this thread while watching the first new X-Files episode.

Prester Jane posted:

I'm the short through medium term this is going to throw a massive amount of water on the liberty movement. They'play scream and concoct all sorts of bizarre conspiracy theories about this, but I expect it will never quite some time before a militia tries to issue a call to arms again. For now I think the threat these groups pose has been severely reduced.

In the long term this means that the next militia event will be athe a target that is not quite so easily as a bird sanctuary in the literal middle of nowhere. Their collective pride is wounded, and eventually the embarrassment they feel will give way to rage. These people want their big fuckoff firefight and they will seek it again someday.

If I had to take a stable at it, I expect the most likely time for another event like this will be from the explosion of rage that is going to happen when the Narrativists supporting Trump/Cruz realize that they are not going to sweep into power in 2016.

Basically Trump/Cruz represent a very large block of Narrativists that are currently undergoing the largest Compaction cycle that I have ever observed. They belive they can obtain power through organized voting.

When reality slaps them in the face they not handle it well.
Hey, yay, welcome back!

I'm wondering now, what are people going to do when they realize Trump/Cruz isn't going to win? Are we going to see solo shooters, people trying to seize federal property, people trying to shoot LEOs, bomb threats? Will it just be a lot of talk online by people who can't take action because they've got work tomorrow, or will there be actual protests in the streets?

It might also depend on how the trials go (I'm certain that not all of the participants will take plea bargains, assuming those are even offered), especially if they're televised. I really wish the FBI had released shooting video immediately because they really need to look like they have nothing to hide. Televised trials would be amazing because it would be like hours upon hours of the defendants trying to claim they were "just camping" or whatever, followed by the prosecution showing videos of them saying they were going to lynch the sheriff or something. Just rub their faces in the fact that they said and did a lot of things that they can't deny. Their response will probably be "Why are they being so mean to us?!" but if the government can make them appear weak and petty, it could be goo propaganda.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

"Oathkeeper Barb" on NTA just discovered in reading the trial documents that the NTA stream is part of the evidence against the Bundys. She's unhappy.

WHOOPS!


EDIT: Of maybe more interesting note it turns out that the thing the FBI is using is an interview they did with Ryan Paine back in 2014 and she took it all down a year ago. So the implication is that these guys have all been getting investigated and watched going back at least a couple of years. Which really isn't surprising but seems kind of noteworthy considering all the anger that nothing was happening post-Bundy Ranch standoff.

And I guess I now confirm that I'm probably on some kind of watchlist for listening to this stream, positing in the chat, and subscribing the last few days. Ah well.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Jan 30, 2016

William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"

kartikeya posted:

Oh ffs

https://twitter.com/jjmacnab/status/693185516062261249

How can they issue a call to action while still being such amazing cowards? Also I think they think PEACEFULLY in all caps is a magic word. Exactly how do they expect to get what they want when the FBI and state troopers laugh in their faces and then say 'now gtfo'? I hope that if anyone shows up, they all go 'oh okay' when that happens, and leave.

"No long guns" = "strap yourselves with more concealed weapons than Neo in the lobby"?

kartikeya
Mar 17, 2009


STAC Goat posted:

"Oathkeeper Barb" on NTA just discovered in reading the trial documents that the NTA stream is part of the evidence against the Bundys. She's unhappy.

WHOOPS!

Ahahaha.

As for potential suicides of the last remaining four, I hope it doesn't go that way, both for obvious reasons and for some really personal ones (this, especially tomorrow, is a suicide anniversary for my family). I was more worried about it the first night when they were all preparing to die though, and mostly from Fry. The other guys/girl? I mean, I'm not in their heads, but it seems less and less likely.

ashpanash
Apr 9, 2008

I can see when you are lying.

Dapper_Swindler posted:

wonder what they are planning.

Nothing. They're just scared out of their minds.

This who thing was a big militia fantasy camp, where they could play at The Walking Dead and somehow get attention for it. It was really fun until suddenly the government said "Ok, chucklefucks, there's leeway and there's insurrection, and you're way too close to the latter." Then, to punctuate everything, one of their guys gets loving killed while they're out playing fantasy paintball.

Everyone with any sense bolts, immediately. These idiots still think it's a game until the reality starts setting in. Now they're forced to make aggressive stands just to avoid the inevitability of it all. It's basically a hostage situation, and they're holding themselves hostage.

There's no plan. Just them muttering in a corner, trying to pray it all away.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, someone put it perfectly early. They ignored all previous opportunities to get out of this mess and now their options are go to jail or die and they're just desperately hoping that a third option reveals itself despite all evidence that they're hosed.

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014

Grimey Drawer

STAC Goat posted:

"Oathkeeper Barb" on NTA just discovered in reading the trial documents that the NTA stream is part of the evidence against the Bundys. She's unhappy.

WHOOPS!


EDIT: Of maybe more interesting note it turns out that the thing the FBI is using is an interview they did with Ryan Paine back in 2014 and she took it all down a year ago. So the implication is that these guys have all been getting investigated and watched going back at least a couple of years. Which really isn't surprising but seems kind of noteworthy considering all the anger that nothing was happening post-Bundy Ranch standoff.

And I guess I now confirm that I'm probably on some kind of watchlist for listening to this stream, positing in the chat, and subscribing the last few days. Ah well.

if posting "owned human being" in the NTA stream gets me on a list, well I guess I'm on a list.

Spun Dog
Sep 21, 2004


Smellrose

OAquinas posted:

So you're saying it was a futile self-fulfilling gesture that died in the snow?

Holy LOL

Crabtree
Oct 17, 2012

ARRRGH! Get that wallet out!
Everybody: Lowtax in a Pickle!
Pickle! Pickle! Pickle! Pickle!

Dinosaur Gum
Sorry, I didn't want to drudge up bad memories for you Kartikeya. I was just wondering what other thing these idiots could hope to pull in between waiting for their likely inevitable arrest.

Will there at least be stricter security around some of these places after the last of the occupiers are gone? I want any potential GREAT AMERICAN REVOLUTION to be much harder for future dipshits by giving them as little squeezing room as possible into any piece of federal property, but you likely can't do jackshit with a Conservative legislative that will defund the goddamn FBI because they were watching these sorts of assholes.

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014

Grimey Drawer

kartikeya posted:

Ahahaha.

As for potential suicides of the last remaining four, I hope it doesn't go that way, both for obvious reasons and for some really personal ones (this, especially tomorrow, is a suicide anniversary for my family). I was more worried about it the first night when they were all preparing to die though, and mostly from Fry. The other guys/girl? I mean, I'm not in their heads, but it seems less and less likely.

Suicide anniversaries really suck, hope it's not too bad for your family.

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014

Grimey Drawer
I wonder if there is a separate supporters only chat for NTA. It appears to be all trolls.

theultimo
Aug 2, 2004

An RSS feed bot who makes questionable purchasing decisions.
Pillbug

Kazak_Hstan posted:

I wonder if there is a separate supporters only chat for NTA. It appears to be all trolls.

there is on their website

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Kazak_Hstan posted:

I wonder if there is a separate supporters only chat for NTA. It appears to be all trolls.

From what they've said there's a more controlled chat on the website linked there.

Skinty McEdger
Mar 9, 2008

I have NEVER received the respect I deserve as the leader and founder of The Masterflock, the internet's largest and oldest Christopher Masterpiece fan group in all of history, and I DEMAND that changes. From now on, you will respect Skinty McEdger!

Crabtree posted:

So how likely is it that the remaining four will try to frame up their suicides as evil gubment killing them before they could surrender? It seems like the most expedient and deceitful way they can avoid the consequences of their actions so of course they're already trying to convince themselves that's the best option.

Even if they did do this, I have no doubt in my mind they would stream it happening.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

On the NTA stream.

Recently Converted "Liberal": Its funny to me that a lot of the stuff you guys are saying is really a lot like what I'd expect to hear from African Americans about Black Lives Matter.
Everyone: NOOOOOO. This is totally different because of reasons.

Trig Discipline
Jun 3, 2008

Please leave the room if you think this might offend you.
Grimey Drawer

kartikeya posted:

Oh ffs

https://twitter.com/jjmacnab/status/693185516062261249

How can they issue a call to action while still being such amazing cowards? Also I think they think PEACEFULLY in all caps is a magic word. Exactly how do they expect to get what they want when the FBI and state troopers laugh in their faces and then say 'now gtfo'? I hope that if anyone shows up, they all go 'oh okay' when that happens, and leave.

The donations aren't sufficient? Jesus, how many dildos do these people need?

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Actual NTA commentary.

Barb: I have to go back to the doctor in three months and if it hasn't improved I'll have to have immediate surgery to get a steel plate put in. And I told the doctor that the only way he can do that is if there's someone standing on either side of him with a gun pointed to make sure he doesn't slip anything in. He giggled. He thought I was kidding.

Man, I really should stop listening to these people but I just can't. Its like if a mental asylum had a talk radio station.

Mercury_Storm
Jun 12, 2003

*chomp chomp chomp*

Perfectly Safe posted:

"Deceitful tactics". It's just adorable that one of their complaints is that the feds aren't playing fair with wanted criminals.

Yeah uh, maybe they wanted everyone to form lines and take turns shooting each other in lines like in the good ol' reenactments.

Grem
Mar 29, 2004

It's how her species communicates

What a genius tactic.

"FBI, we are entirely out of supplies and would like to negotiate a deal for us leaving that would be advantageous to us."

theultimo
Aug 2, 2004

An RSS feed bot who makes questionable purchasing decisions.
Pillbug

Grem posted:

What a genius tactic.

"FBI, we are entirely out of supplies and would like to negotiate a deal for us leaving that would be advantageous to us."

https://twitter.com/sarasidnerCNN/status/693192881964654596

happyhippy
Feb 21, 2005

Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup
Pillbug
So have the Navy SEALS parachuted in yet?

theultimo
Aug 2, 2004

An RSS feed bot who makes questionable purchasing decisions.
Pillbug

happyhippy posted:

So have the Navy SEALS parachuted in yet?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glsQEwWZLqg

AKA Pseudonym
May 16, 2004

A dashing and sophisticated young man
Doctor Rope
"Give me me liberty and also give me no consequences whatsoever. Please don't make me stay in this frozen shithole I've made for myself."
-Patrick Henry

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001



Yeesh what a mess, hopefully the remaining 4 are using their spare time to tidy up

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

AKA Pseudonym posted:

"Give me me liberty and also give me no consequences whatsoever. Please don't make me stay in this frozen shithole I've made for myself."
-Patrick Henry

So that's what they were digging with the Cat.

Flavahbeast posted:

Yeesh what a mess, hopefully the remaining 4 are using their spare time to tidy up
It looks like they've completely relocated outside, which is just baffling.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Flavahbeast posted:

Yeesh what a mess, hopefully the remaining 4 are using their spare time to tidy up

They're getting stoned, drunk, and looting the stuff left behind.

And digging giant holes for some reason.

Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

It's gonna take a long time to clean this place after this is over.

Mr Interweb
Aug 25, 2004

The feds should force these fucks to clean up the entire refuge before they take em to the klink..

Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

STAC Goat posted:


And digging giant holes for some reason.

Oh, they are cleaning up, that's where they're gonna put the garbage.

Mr Interweb posted:

The feds should force these fucks to clean up the entire refuge before they take em to the klink..

They should tell them they have to clean up to get their pardons, and then, of course, arrest them anyway.

Lycus fucked around with this message at 01:04 on Jan 30, 2016

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."





It's looking more and more like a redneck music festival.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnMP7OsqWq8

Aves Maria!
Jul 26, 2008

Maybe I'll drown

Lycus posted:

Oh, they are cleaning up, that's where they're gonna put the garbage.

That wouldn't be my choice for burying a fallen comrade but I guess you work with what you've got.

Perfectly Safe
May 30, 2003

no danger here.

Lycus posted:

It's gonna take a long time to clean this place after this is over.

Ugh, can you imagine? It's not just the mess either - there's every chance that there are IEDs in there (not necessarily big ones, but rigged shotgun shells etc). The whole thing's going to take weeks.

Ibogaine
Aug 11, 2015

STAC Goat posted:

Actual NTA commentary.

Barb: I have to go back to the doctor in three months and if it hasn't improved I'll have to have immediate surgery to get a steel plate put in. And I told the doctor that the only way he can do that is if there's someone standing on either side of him with a gun pointed to make sure he doesn't slip anything in. He giggled. He thought I was kidding.

Man, I really should stop listening to these people but I just can't. Its like if a mental asylum had a talk radio station.

I know what you mean. NTA is like crack: Incredibly addictive and sure to break your mind.

ChlamydiaJones
Sep 27, 2002

My Estonian riding instructor told me; "Mine munni ahvi türa imeja", and I live by that every day!
Ramrod XTreme

OAquinas posted:

No one's going to show up. These puppies have been good and whipped, it's 30 degrees out, and their keyboards don't judge them. Much.

Before the 150 car rollup they would have likely picked up a few dozen, but everyone's been scattered except the Brokesnack Mountain crew, tarpman's dead, and this there's no battle left to join.

From the closed FB Oregon III% and Burns Supply Train group;

quote:

Brenda Sisson
4 hrs ·

Zone4 Brenda is asking: Are there any women going to share expenses? I can leave, Jan 30 (Sunday afternoon) from Central Point and go why 140...OR from Grants Pass...go north I-5 to Eugene, Or. Please pm for arrangement's.
LikeComment
Tracy Olenik likes this.
Comments
Tracy Olenik
Tracy Olenik Can leave Sunday afternoon
Like · Reply · 1 · 4 hrs

quote:

Brenda Sisson UPDATE; Tracy Olenik and I are car pooling. We have resver @ Silver Spur in Burns.2Q beds. 49+tax. night. prefer a girl. Could rent roll bed for extra $5 nite if ur a guy. Still to split total room $ equal.
Like · Reply · 2 hrs · Edited

so some of them are driving there and it is a current topic of conversation so who knows.

Rodenthar Drothman
May 14, 2013

I think I will continue
watching this twilight world
as long as time flows.

I think that's my biggest beef with this whole op.

They come in and trash the place, ruin native american artifacts (probably, I didn't see those specific videos), park their loving cars all over wherever they want, strut around like they own the place, then have the BALLS to say they didn't do anything.

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

trickybiscuits posted:



Hey, yay, welcome back!

I'm wondering now, what are people going to do when they realize Trump/Cruz isn't going to win? Are we going to see solo shooters, people trying to seize federal property, people trying to shoot LEOs, bomb threats? Will it just be a lot of talk online by people who can't take action because they've got work tomorrow, or will there be actual protests in the streets?


Thank you, it's good to be back :)

As for what will happen when the Narrativists supporting Yrump/Cruz realize they aren't going to gain power.......nothing good honestly.

Before I get into a giant thing, let me just state the worst possible outcome that I think could happen. Perhaps 10 or so attacks by organized "militias" targeting infrastructure and federal facilities and a few dozen lone wolf attacks aimed at various minority groups or federal employees over a period of 3-4 months. I'm getting that out of the way because I want to make clear I'm not predicting an apocalypse but rather a period of potential pockets of social unrest here and there. This is my absolute worst case nightmare scenario and I don't attribute it a particularly high probability of actually happening. With that said.

What I will call the Trump faction from here on out represents a very large group of Narrativists that are in general much less radicalized than their fellows in the Liberty movement. However that is quickly changing because the sheer number of them in addition to the presence of Trump is causing rapid and large-scale Compaction Cycles. Compounding matters is the fact that Fox News seems to be rapidly falling out of favor with this particular group of narrative is and as a result they will go seeking Narrative validation from other sources. Those other sources are going to be the much fringier far right media places like Breitbart and Infowars.

This is very concerning because in general Fox News relies on far less sophisticated and far less radicalized Outer Narratives to sell itself. As Trump continues to drag his faction of narrative is further and further into crazy lala land the sorts of propaganda techniques and manipulation techniques that Fox News has relied on to build its audience base are rapidly becoming inadequate to keep their attention. This is a large factor in why Donald Trump has been able to so successfully win his war with Fox News. Narrativists require constant validation of the Narrative, this is in effect a deep-seated psychological need. (Without a steady level of validation, Narrativists experience quite a bit of anxiety that they will relieve by seeking out sources of validation of the Narrative) Because Fox News is falling out of favor and is no longer able to satisfy this need (because Fox News is now too moderate) this is causing the to turn to more and more radicalized sources of validation. Trump is openly encouraging this process by courting extremely fringe far-right figures and attempting to convert their audience into supporting him a process that he has been remarkably successful at this far.

(As a friend of mine who escaped cults with me quipped when he saw Alex Jones giving Donald Trump a 20 minute blow job on the Alex Jones Show "Walter White just moved into the trailer park".)

At present they are radicalized enough to the point where calling the president a negro is now become acceptable, as well as openly admitting that Trump believes that if he shot someone he wouldn't lose any support. As Trump will only continue to drag his faction further and further to the right no matter what (there will be no turn towards the moderate in the general) this bodes very poorly.

Remember how disconnected the Romney campaign was with its "skewed polls"? Well that level of delusion will look downright folksy compared to whst will happen if Donald Trump is the GOP nominee in the general. The Trump segment of Narrativists believe that the long prophesized grassroots uprising of the silent majority is at hand and that they will be able to reverse and undo the past 50 years worth of culture wars in a single election. They have convinced themselves completely and utterly of this already and the first vote in the primaries has yet to be cast.

When it finally dawns on them that they're not going to get their way peacefully there will be large outcries to turn violent as a very large portion of them will be despondent for a time, believing that the world is effectively over. Further complicating this is that Trump (as a malignant narcissist who is high on his own supply) will not go quietly into the night when he suddenly realizes that his time in the spotlight (as person with power) is effectively over for the rest of his life. There's a real chance that Trump will openly (or through the thinnest of veneers) try to incite violence.

I expect orders of magnitude more of people threatening to commit violence then will actually follow through on their threats to do so, however as Trump represents a faction numbering in the tens of millions even if only a fraction of a percent turn violent that could be quite a few people.

My personal best case (and most probable) scenario at this point is basically a 5-fold or so increase in hate crimes that lasts for a period of 6 to 12 months followed by a three to four year period of gradual decrease from this new normal of hate crimes. In addition there will be an absolutely biblical level of " weeping and gnashing of teeth". There's also a high probability that there will be a period where becoming the target of right wing social media hate mobs (ala Gamergate/8chan) will carry a very real risk of being murdered.

I think that after this plays out the conversation about free speech in the United States will more or less be forever changed and there's a very high chance that the conversation about gun ownership will also be forever changed. We may even see a real discussion of Australian style gun control asystem well as european-style hate speech laws. I don't really expect new legislation to result out of it but I do think there will be a period where such policies will be a very attractive idea to a wide swath of the country.

On the plus side according to my analysis this will more less be the last stand of organized nativism in the United States, the younger generation is in many ways far less likely to become a narrative is so into a wealth of social factors that have come about as result of the success of liberal ideas in the culture wars. United States Narrativists are concentrated heavily in the Baby Boomers as well as Generation Y. (Millennial generation Narrativists are comparatively rare, although far from non existent) The younger you go the slower the percentage of Narrativists in the general population. In many ways then this will represent the last grand gasp of Narrativism as a political force in the United States before it's basically crushed in the inevitable grind of the culture wars.

So there's at least that bright spot to look forwards to.

Xand_Man
Mar 2, 2004

If what you say is true
Wutang might be dangerous


Perfectly Safe posted:

Ugh, can you imagine? It's not just the mess either - there's every chance that there are IEDs in there (not necessarily big ones, but rigged shotgun shells etc). The whole thing's going to take weeks.

If they leave booby-traps in a loving wildlife refuge their heads will be on pikes at the National Park Services headquarters.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Rodenthar Drothman posted:

I think that's my biggest beef with this whole op.

They come in and trash the place, ruin native american artifacts (probably, I didn't see those specific videos), park their loving cars all over wherever they want, strut around like they own the place, then have the BALLS to say they didn't do anything.

It really is the most annoying thing now that its pretty much been resolved without them hurting any innocents. All they managed to accomplish was get one of their own guys killed and do a poo poo load of collateral damage that is either unable to be fixed or will take a poo poo load of time. They're the grown up version of teenagers trashing a house with a party and thinking it sent a message about rebellion.

I hope all of the non-felons in the group get 1000 hours of community service cleaning up roadsides and poo poo.

  • Locked thread