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Rosscifer
Aug 3, 2005

Patience

McDowell posted:

My main point was the stupidity of arming guerrillas and picking favorites with no longer term plan. The US made withdrawal as long and unpleasant as possible for the USSR, and once the war was over we took no responsibility for the failed state that resulted. This cancer has now spread to the Levant because we're still using Gipper policies.

Regan gave literally gave cash to the Pakistanis who funneled it to Mujahedeen via the ISI. Obama tried to screen rebel groups then flew in planeloads of arms through from Croatia but then abandoned the idea days later when it became clear that some arms were falling into Jihadist hands. Obama then tried training rebels directly and training the Kurds though he abandoned the former and retained the later. How is Obama the same as the Gipper?

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Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Rosscifer posted:

Obama tried to screen rebel groups then flew in planeloads of arms through from Croatia but then abandoned the idea days later when it became clear that some arms were falling into Jihadist hands.

That deal was financed primarily by KSA, it lasted a hell of a lot longer than a few days, and it wasn't the US who stopped it. The Croats backed out after some unemployed loser broke the story once he noticed the influx of the weapons in Aleppo in youtube videos. Seems they weren't so keen to keep up the shipments when it was on the front page.

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

Rosscifer posted:

Regan gave literally gave cash to the Pakistanis who funneled it to Mujahedeen via the ISI. Obama tried to screen rebel groups then flew in planeloads of arms through from Croatia but then abandoned the idea days later when it became clear that some arms were falling into Jihadist hands. Obama then tried training rebels directly and training the Kurds though he abandoned the former and retained the later. How is Obama the same as the Gipper?

He might be using more nuance and restraint but the idea of funding 'our' guys is still the same as it has been throughout the Cold War. It was the Reagan model of cowboy foreign policy to occupy Iraq & Afghanistan with no reconstruction plan or exit strategy. Really no single individual can be blamed or expected to fix it - institutional/cultural inertia is a bitch.

A new strategy would be to shatter people's perceptions and bring despair to all the extremists of the Middle East - they must be shown that their dreams of ethnically and religiously pure states can never come true.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Rosscifer posted:

Obama tried to screen rebel groups then flew in planeloads of arms through from Croatia but then abandoned the idea days later when it became clear that some arms were falling into Jihadist hands. Obama then tried training rebels directly and training the Kurds though he abandoned the former and retained the later. How is Obama the same as the Gipper?

The real question here is why, with Saudi Arabia and a bunch of other rich Gulf states around and openly supporting the rebels, you think the US would be a prime candidate to send arms to rebel groups in Syria.

Even the TOWs, appearing late in the conflict, likely originated from Saudi Arabian stocks.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 14:14 on Jan 30, 2016

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

McDowell posted:

He might be using more nuance and restraint but the idea of funding 'our' guys is still the same as it has been throughout the Cold War. It was the Reagan model of cowboy foreign policy to occupy Iraq & Afghanistan with no reconstruction plan or exit strategy. Really no single individual can be blamed or expected to fix it - institutional/cultural inertia is a bitch.

A new strategy would be to shatter people's perceptions and bring despair to all the extremists of the Middle East - they must be shown that their dreams of ethnically and religiously pure states can never come true.

I'm sure the hundreds of thousands of Syrian dead and millions of refugees would agree.

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

Friendly Tumour posted:

I'm sure the hundreds of thousands of Syrian dead and millions of refugees would agree.

They will when Daesh is gone and all nations have commited to building a secular Middle East.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

McDowell posted:

They will when Daesh is gone and all nations have commited to building a secular Middle East.

Yeah I'm sure they'll be really glad for being holocausted by the really secular Bashar al-Assad. They'll thenk the West every night in the death camps for not giving a poo poo and finding excuses not to lift a finger and instead say it's allright and they didn't gently caress up at all.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
The only point when the West became interested in the Syrian Civil war was when Daesh made attacks against Western interests, and Daesh was the only target of those actions. Our involvement has nothing at all to do with the suffering of Syrian people or their fate, only our interests.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Nevermind 'secularism'. loving lmao tho, yeah allowing the secularist Assad whose line has from the start been that he's fighting for secularism and against Jihadist terrorists to butcher hundreds of thousands of people is a real good way to convince Muslims in general of the value of secular, non-sectarian governmental forms as opposed to Islamism. Especially when it comes to efficiency in genocide.

Quorum
Sep 24, 2014

REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?

Friendly Tumour posted:

Nevermind 'secularism'. loving lmao tho, yeah allowing the secularist Assad whose line has from the start been that he's fighting for secularism and against Jihadist terrorists to butcher hundreds of thousands of people is a real good way to convince Muslims in general of the value of secular, non-sectarian governmental forms as opposed to Islamism. Especially when it comes to efficiency in genocide.

The edit button exists, friend.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Quorum posted:

The edit button exists, friend.

Yeah! And clicking it takes to a page where you can edit your post! If that's a thing you wanna do!

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Quorum posted:

The edit button exists, friend.

For Assad, it exists for people.

Quorum
Sep 24, 2014

REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?

My Imaginary GF posted:

For Assad, it exists for people.

And all of his supporters bought plat so they could report sedition. :smith:

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
Russians:stupid

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35449152

quote:

Turkey says a Russian jet has violated its airspace and it has summoned the Russian ambassador to Ankara.
The foreign ministry said a Russian SU-34 jet flew into Turkish airspace on Friday despite warnings.
Tensions have been high between Ankara and Moscow since Turkey shot down a Russian plane which violated its airspace near Syria in November.
Russia has been carrying out air strikes in Syria to support government troops near the Turkish border.
"A Su-34 plane belonging to the Russian Federation air force violated Turkish airspace at 11:46 local time yesterday (Friday)," the Turkish foreign ministry said.
Its statement said the Russian ambassador had been summoned to "strongly protest and condemn" the incident.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Where? For how long? Did it have good reason?

I don't trust Turkey to not be supplying ISIL and other jihadist groups with arms, and I especially don't trust Turkey to respect disputed border regions.

Dusty Baker 2
Jul 8, 2011

Keyboard Inghimasi

Apparently all of these guys are huge douchebags, especially the Swede. My friend happened to know them all rather well and says all but one of them showed up after the fighting was over to grab the glory. Almost all of them have since gone home, except for one of them who is the biggest rear end in a top hat of all of them. The Swede abandoned his kids to fly to Iraq to get some glory, ffs.

Invicta{HOG}, M.D.
Jan 16, 2002

What, do you think that Turkey is going to shoot down another Russian? I bet they wouldn't and Russia knows this.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

What, do you think that Turkey is going to shoot down another Russian? I bet they wouldn't and Russia knows this.

I wouldn't be so sure about that on either point.

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.
Well, if anything, taking on a SU-34 with F-16s is trickier than shooting down a SU-24.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

What, do you think that Turkey is going to shoot down another Russian? I bet they wouldn't and Russia knows this.

I don't know about that. Russia's ambassador was probably told that if it happens again they'll pop the plane without warning.

Erdrogan's ego dragging us into a shooting war with Russia would get a grim chuckle out of me before I'm incinerated in a wave of nuclear hellfire.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx
A thing is happening:
https://twitter.com/kovandire/status/693535735371173888?lang=en

quote:

#American military council in meeting with #SDF #YPG in #kobani, #TwitterKurds #Syria

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

You think an independent Kurdish state is a realistic prospect, fade5?

MothraAttack
Apr 28, 2008

Warbadger posted:

The real question here is why, with Saudi Arabia and a bunch of other rich Gulf states around and openly supporting the rebels, you think the US would be a prime candidate to send arms to rebel groups in Syria.

Even the TOWs, appearing late in the conflict, likely originated from Saudi Arabian stocks.

My understanding is that the U.S. likely took on its limited role because of expertise and its own strategic interest (gain leverage against Assad and Iran), but then in acting as a gatekeeper they dictated the terms and pace of said aid. If the GCC had their way fully the rebels would have taken most of the country by now.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx

My Imaginary GF posted:

You think an independent Kurdish state is a realistic prospect, fade5?
Iraqi Kurdistan, maybe. If they do the independence declaration before November I feel like it'll go kinda like Kosovo, namely the declaration won't be recognized by a bunch of countries but on the other hand it probably will be recognized by a significant number of other countries, and continue to be a contentious issue. Either way though, there really won't be anything from the outside that can be done about it.

That's just the declaration though, there will be a multitude of issues: Mosul, Kirkuk, Sinjar, al-Baaj, Hawija, Kirkuk again, other disputed areas, the question of whether Barzani steps down afterward, the aftershocks on all the surrounding countries, the massive shocks inside Iraq (or what's left of it at least), the reaction of the Shia militias, how the US responds, how the new US president (probably Hillary) responds, and probably 5 other things I'm forgetting, but that one is doable, if difficult.

Syrian Kurdistan is probably gonna end up an autonomous region in Syria because of what's been noted previously in the thread. Even if Assad/the SAA (with Russian and Iranian/Hezbollah's assistance) can successfully push hard enough against the rebels that they can declare "victory", that still leaves a massive insurgency, an SAA pushed way beyond the breaking point, a general war-weariness, and a Russia that has been cozying up to the Syrian Kurds.

I have no loving idea what's going to happen with Turkey and the PKK/Turkish Kurdistan. Ideally I'd like to see the peace process restarted, but that's not gonna happen as long as Erdogan is in power, and so that just leaves the continued attacks/killings that we're seeing.:(

Iranian Kurdistan is still a bit of a mystery to me, and with the US trying to re-establish better relations with Iran we're probably not going to wade into that in any form whatsoever.

fade5 fucked around with this message at 04:22 on Jan 31, 2016

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

What, do you think that Turkey is going to shoot down another Russian? I bet they wouldn't and Russia knows this.

I'm surprised Turkey even gave Russia a chance here. They have no reason not to shoot one down since they warned Russia about 8 times for separate incidents prior to the last shoot down. I think it's more likely that this was a mistake since this is the first time in months we've heard of an incident like this, when it used to be a regular occurrence. A pilot is probably going to get his rear end chewed.

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK
There is a conspiracy theory that the Turks shot down to Marine CH-53s in Syria that were going to resupply guys in Syria. The alleged coverup is the loss of 2 marine CH-53s in Hawaii.

redscare
Aug 14, 2003

Volkerball posted:

I'm surprised Turkey even gave Russia a chance here. They have no reason not to shoot one down since they warned Russia about 8 times for separate incidents prior to the last shoot down. I think it's more likely that this was a mistake since this is the first time in months we've heard of an incident like this, when it used to be a regular occurrence. A pilot is probably going to get his rear end chewed.

It's a lot harder to take down a Su-34 than a Su-24. The Turks probably didn't fancy their chances of success.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

redscare posted:

It's a lot harder to take down a Su-34 than a Su-24. The Turks probably didn't fancy their chances of success.

You're dealing with decisions being made in a matter of seconds here, so I doubt something like that figures into the equation. Their rules of engagement wouldn't have an "unless it might not work" addendum. I see two different scenarios. In the first, Turkey rolled back their ROE to re-establish a new record of Russian violations of their airspace, that way if it comes to them shooting down another jet, they have a whole new slew of incidents to point to, which would give the shoot down more legitimacy. Or the ROE is still the same, and this was a very minor incursion (relative to the one that was shot down which was over a mile inside Turkey) that the men on the ground didn't feel triggered a response.

Volkerball fucked around with this message at 09:26 on Jan 31, 2016

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
I think the last time Turkish military also thought it was dealing with a Syrian jet. When it's Russia they have to restrain themselves a little more, you don't just shoot down a nuclear power's planes every time they cross into your airspace.

WarpedNaba
Feb 8, 2012

Being social makes me swell!
What, no Turkey Shoot?

Borrrrring.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Khomeini officially appealed the Guardian Councils ruling. What's funny is that part of the reason he was rejected was that he was "using a false surname," instead of his own, Mostafavi. His grandfathers surname is also Mostafavi. "Khomeini" is derived from where he was born, Khomeyn, Iran. So a lot of this debate seems to be based around disassociating Hassan Khomeini's ties with, you know, his biological grandfather. Immediately after he announced his appeal, he was visited by Khamenei at his workplace, the Mausoleum for Ruhollah Khomeini.





Interesting timing.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

tekz posted:

What a lovely loving whitewash. The islamic radicalization of afghanistan was started by the USA and two of its closest allies providing training, weapons, ideological and logistical support. The actions they undertook in the Soviet-Afghan war provided a blueprint and a nice little support network for foreign fighter jihadists all over the world (where bin Laden got his start and began to build his network), and Pakistan continued that process in the 90s while continuing to happily receive arms and money from the USA. The Taliban was absolutely a creation of the ISI, and that refutes any of this how?

I thought it was accepted wisdom by now that this was a monster America helped create, insane that there's still apologists for it but not shocking that you'd find them in d&d.

Ah, so you're just you're just going to post without backing up your claims whatsover. And adding that along with the dumb internet insulting means that you're going to be a great contributor to this thread in the future, I'm sure.

McDowell posted:

My main point was the stupidity of arming guerrillas and picking favorites with no longer term plan. The US made withdrawal as long and unpleasant as possible for the USSR, and once the war was over we took no responsibility for the failed state that resulted. This cancer has now spread to the Levant because we're still using Gipper policies.

I don't see a problem with this in broad strokes, but this is a pretty substantive and detail heavy thread, so I'm always quick to push against specific misconceptions.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Boom goes the shrine!

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Yemen is starting to face famine due to the Saudi blockade.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Volkerball posted:

Khomeini officially appealed the Guardian Councils ruling. What's funny is that part of the reason he was rejected was that he was "using a false surname," instead of his own, Mostafavi. His grandfathers surname is also Mostafavi. "Khomeini" is derived from where he was born, Khomeyn, Iran. So a lot of this debate seems to be based around disassociating Hassan Khomeini's ties with, you know, his biological grandfather. Immediately after he announced his appeal, he was visited by Khamenei at his workplace, the Mausoleum for Ruhollah Khomeini.





Interesting timing.

Haha, that is sort of amazing in a "petty power play" sort of way.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Surreal drone footage of Homs from this week. Probably the best video I've seen yet as far as truly getting a sense of the scale of the destruction there. It's awful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ol39pa__Rhk

And a reminder that the regimes response to this was to build a resort outside of the city. Such an idealistic paradise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Omyp-GDFsWw

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

Volkerball posted:

Surreal drone footage of Homs from this week. Probably the best video I've seen yet as far as truly getting a sense of the scale of the destruction there. It's awful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ol39pa__Rhk

And a reminder that the regimes response to this was to build a resort outside of the city. Such an idealistic paradise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Omyp-GDFsWw

That second one is hilarious. That tourism minister is a riot. "Yeah we're driving past this entire bombed-out city of rubble here and, oh look! A resort with a swimming pool! It's already taking reservations. Why yes, it is only 10 miles away from rebel lines."

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Sergg posted:

That second one is hilarious. That tourism minister is a riot. "Yeah we're driving past this entire bombed-out city of rubble here and, oh look! A resort with a swimming pool! It's already taking reservations. Why yes, it is only 10 miles away from rebel lines."

The whole documentary is worth a watch. This poo poo is tip of the iceberg.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/inside-assads-syria/

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Sergg posted:

That second one is hilarious. That tourism minister is a riot. "Yeah we're driving past this entire bombed-out city of rubble here and, oh look! A resort with a swimming pool! It's already taking reservations. Why yes, it is only 10 miles away from rebel lines."

It is as if someone in Assad's inner circle had a meth-fueled epiphany after watching a Vice documentary on war tourism.

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Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

My Imaginary GF posted:

It is as if someone in Assad's inner circle had a meth-fueled epiphany after watching a Vice documentary on war tourism.

Speaking of, what's your daily adderall dose at these days?

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