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Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

What states are considered the "home base" of the Republican Establishment?

States where the kooky evangelicals aren't as powerful. Mostly states outside of the south that tend to vote democratic in the presidential election anyways. Basically the states that Romney won in 2012 before everyone dropped out.

One of the most glaring stupidities of analysis from pundits this cycle is how they've repeatedly missed that Trump's numbers are actually stronger in these traditionally establishment states.

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Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich

blue squares posted:

I forgot that Jeb Bush is running a conventionally fiscally conservative campaign

LOL if you think that money is going into anyone's pockets but the friends and family of RTR board members.

Bryter
Nov 6, 2011

but since we are small we may-
uh, we may be the losers

Imagine the abject terror of flying in a plane piloted by Ron Paul

Farm Frenzy
Jan 3, 2007

William Bear posted:

I'm pretty sure door knocking college kids don't get paid by campaigns. All they'll have to show for this is some Jeb! Merchandise!

also patronage and connections and higher ranking paid positions in future establishment republican campaigns or administrations

Democrazy
Oct 16, 2008

If you're not willing to lick the boot, then really why are you in politics lol? Everything is a cycle of just getting stomped on so why do you want to lose to it over and over, just submit like me, I'm very intelligent.

I know Rand Paul himself doesn't write his tweets, but calling him Ron instead of, I dunno, dad, is hilarious

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Bryter posted:

Imagine the abject terror of flying in a plane piloted by Ron Paul

Tragic plane crash, in which the crater is littered with purestrain gold.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

please tell me that 24 hours before the caucus is the first time ron is campaigning for his son

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
To expand and extrapolate the commentary of the legendary campaigner Lee Atwater into position implications for current electoral lanes:

Fiscal conservatism is a product of political correctness. Why do I say this? Let's look directly at Atwater's commentary:

quote:

You start out in 1954 by saying, “friend of the family, friend of the family, friend of the family.” By 1968 you can’t say “friend of the family”—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than “friend of the family, friend of the family.”

Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio are "talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things...." That's what fiscal conservatism means to them.

Trump's not talking about those things other than to offhandedly dogwhistle towards them to judge their popularity at his rallies. Trump's found a way to yell "friend of the family, friend of the family" without being a racist and so can call for expanding America's social support network and for spending levels last seen during FDR's New Deal on public-works projects which directly address civilian employment opportunities and economic inequality in America.

Bryter
Nov 6, 2011

but since we are small we may-
uh, we may be the losers

Raskolnikov38 posted:

please tell me that 24 hours before the caucus is the first time ron is campaigning for his son

Reminder that Rand announced his candidacy last April, and Ron didn't endorse him until August

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
What are the implications for the general election? Well, Bernie Sanders is selling the same fiscal policies as Donald Trump, only he's attempting to do so without yelling a social media-acceptable modernization of "friend of the family, friend of the family, friend of the family."

If it comes down to a choice on whether Americans would rather yell the modern equivalent to the feelings represented by "friend of the family, friend of the family, friend of the family," or of having the same policies without the underpinning of national superiority, always bet on national superiority.

Unfortunately for Hillary, she passed on her opportunity to learn from Trump and maintains her politically correct stances on economic policy.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Bryter posted:

Reminder that Rand announced his candidacy last April, and Ron didn't endorse him until August

ron hates him so goddamn much, it's almost sad


almost

breaklaw
May 12, 2008

quote:

CNN\WMUR Poll - Results from Jan 27-30

Donald Trump 30%
Ted Cruz 12%
Marco Rubio 11%
John Kasich 9%
Chris Christie 8%
Jeb Bush 6%.

Bernie Sanders 57%
Hillary Clinton 34%
Martin O'Malley 1%


Story
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/31/politics/cnn-wmur-poll-donald-trump-bernie-sanders/index.html
Raw
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/01/31/topnh2.pdf

NH

breaklaw fucked around with this message at 00:53 on Feb 1, 2016

SNAKES N CAKES
Sep 6, 2005

DAVID GAIDER
Lead Writer

quote:

Donald Trump 30%
Ted Cruz 12%
Marco Rubio 11%
John Kasich 9%
Chris Christie 8%
Jeb Bush 6%

Not one of these people is going to drop out before NH.

thethreeman
May 10, 2008
Fallen Rib
https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/693935649582223361

in two days Cruz'll accuse the Iowa Today & Tomorrow of liberal bias in their "gotcha" articles

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

thethreeman posted:

https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/693935649582223361

in two days Cruz'll accuse the Iowa Today & Tomorrow of liberal bias in their "gotcha" articles

What the gently caress.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Ted Cruz really wants to be president! It's kind of shocking compared to all the other half-assed campaigns trying to oppose Trump.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

thethreeman posted:

https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/693935649582223361

in two days Cruz'll accuse the Iowa Today & Tomorrow of liberal bias in their "gotcha" articles

Ted Cruz gives a small preview of the type of reporting that will be mandatory when he is elected President.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Raskolnikov38 posted:

please tell me that 24 hours before the caucus is the first only time ron is campaigning for his son

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Raskolnikov38 posted:

please tell me that 24 hours before the caucus is the first time ron is campaigning for his son

To assume that Ron Paul is in Iowa to campaign on behalf of his son is a bit of an error; Ron Paul is in Iowa to campaign for giving Ron Paul money, this time under the guise that Ron Paul is a human and not a lizard who cares for his son.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

thethreeman posted:

https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/693935649582223361

in two days Cruz'll accuse the Iowa Today & Tomorrow of liberal bias in their "gotcha" articles

Can we throw Cruz in prison yet?

jackofarcades
Sep 2, 2011

Okay, I'll admit it took me a bit to get into it... But I think I kinda love this!! I'm Spider-Man!! I'm actually Spider-Man!! HA!

SNAKES N CAKES posted:

Not one of these people is going to drop out before NH.

Well, after Iowa some of the non Trump/Cruz votes will switch to Rubio. Rubio's problem is not all of them will, and some of them will switch to Trump probably!

Rocks
Dec 30, 2011

Don't you have to somewhere say that it's campaign material?

When's the last time anyone got nailed for a campaign violation?

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

thethreeman posted:

https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/693935649582223361

in two days Cruz'll accuse the Iowa Today & Tomorrow of liberal bias in their "gotcha" articles

I said that this would happen in my posts months, if not years, ago.

With Citizens United, it is more cost-effective for a candidate to run their own media outlets in a vertically-integrated structure than it is to work with other's media outlets.

Donald Trump
Jan 31, 2016

by exmarx
Ted lies. No one likes Ted and that might be why.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

thethreeman posted:

https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/693935649582223361

in two days Cruz'll accuse the Iowa Today & Tomorrow of liberal bias in their "gotcha" articles

I thought it was a real local paper until I noticed a red maple leaf on the back.

Von Sloneker
Jul 6, 2009

as if all this was something more
than another footnote on a postcard from nowhere,
another chapter in the handbook for exercises in futility

Rocks posted:

Don't you have to somewhere say that it's campaign material?

Everything is campaign material now.

There is no end and no beginning.

Save our souls.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Rocks posted:

Don't you have to somewhere say that it's campaign material?

When's the last time anyone got nailed for a campaign violation?

One box simple line surrounded by a box on who pays for it.

On a printing this large, it's quite easy to hide it on the back page in the area of the page least likely to be seen.

I'm not sure if any candidate has paid for their own newspaper outlet since FEC came into existance. Might have to look up what the LaRouchites or Moonies have had to disclose.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Von Sloneker posted:

Everything is campaign material now.

There is no end and no beginning.

Save our souls.

Now, if you wanted to get real dirty, your SuperPAC could print up your own paper, have it inserted into an established paper, and have that paper accuse other candidates of very specific crimes with false quotes.

This is the world we live in since Citizen's United. Fortunately, the only individual in this race who lacks any and all sense of moral decency is the Canadian.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

the best thing about ted cruz' kind of campaigning is that people like us are repulsed but people like the ones who answer polls and generally don't hate ted cruz, as crazy as that sounds, aren't like us, they don't pay this much attention, and there's a chance that they actually move toward him as a result of it. negative, cynical campaigning, historically, has worked, and i'll be interested to read the tea leaves on tuesday to decide how it might have affected things in iowa this year

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedAndrew/status/693951958823079937

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

did that dude drive to intercourse pa just so he could tweet from the raddest location

and he did it at 4:20 pm. i detect a non-coincidence

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

oystertoadfish posted:

the best thing about ted cruz' kind of campaigning is that people like us are repulsed but people like the ones who answer polls and generally don't hate ted cruz, as crazy as that sounds, aren't like us, they don't pay this much attention, and there's a chance that they actually move toward him as a result of it. negative, cynical campaigning, historically, has worked, and i'll be interested to read the tea leaves on tuesday to decide how it might have affected things in iowa this year

I'm not repulsed; I find them to be the innovations for this cycle which I've previously proposed and advocated for. I think it is unfortunate that Republicans are able to ratfuck opposition campaigns better than Democrats, and feel it necessary that the party should fund research and development of evidence-based methodologies for the most effective ratfuckery possible in today's post-Citizen's United campaign ecosystem.

You know what has also, historically, worked for elections? Owning and operating breweries and saloons.

Imagine how much more entertaining the Iowa caucuses would be if Trump were able to offer his supporters' a free liquoring up beforehand and free drinks for anyone who switches loyalties during.

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe
Cruz and Clinton strike me as the people in this race who are the most "win at all costs" cutthroat. Looking at how well Cruz's campaign has been run, it'll be even more delightful when Trump smashes him.

thethreeman
May 10, 2008
Fallen Rib

My Imaginary GF posted:

I said that this would happen in my posts months, if not years, ago.

With Citizens United, it is more cost-effective for a candidate to run their own media outlets in a vertically-integrated structure than it is to work with other's media outlets.

Actually this reminds me that Cruz's big donor - that Mercer guy - is the largest outside shareholder in the Breitbart media empire. Really interesting how it's gone full Trump when most people expected them to have no editorial independence

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

quote:

Hedge fund billionaire Julian Robertson, one of Jeb! Bush’s most generous donors, is hedging his bets with donations to Ohio governor John Kasich, FEC disclosures looked at by Politico reveal.

Robertson gave $25,000 to New Day Independent Media Committee, one of the twin groups backing the Ohio governor, according to disclosures filed Sunday. Last June, Robertson, who founded Tiger Management, gave $1 million to

Right to Rise, the pro-Bush super PAC. Right to Rise hadn’t filed its latest disclosure report as of Sunday evening, so it was unclear whether Robertson continued to support Bush’s cause in the last part of 2015.

You can read the whole story here; but even in the last couple of minutes, Right to Rise filed its latest disclosure, showing that it had raised a dismal $15m in the second half of the year, as compared with $103m in the first half of the year.

That’s an unbelievably precipitous dropping-off in funding; no wonder the former Florida governor has looked so glum recently.


http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/jan/31/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-ted-cruz-iowa-caucus

Jeb? is getting his wingnut welfare cut off

I would blow Dane Cook fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Feb 1, 2016

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

My Imaginary GF posted:

I'm not repulsed; I find them to be the innovations for this cycle which I've previously proposed and advocated for. I think it is unfortunate that Republicans are able to ratfuck opposition campaigns better than Democrats, and feel it necessary that the party should fund research and development of evidence-based methodologies for the most effective ratfuckery possible in today's post-Citizen's United campaign ecosystem.

You know what has also, historically, worked for elections? Owning and operating breweries and saloons.

Imagine how much more entertaining the Iowa caucuses would be if Trump were able to offer his supporters' a free liquoring up beforehand and free drinks for anyone who switches loyalties during.

the stickied thread for the iowa caucuses has a post in there saying at least one democratic caucus location is in a brewery. so that's a step in the right direction

i'm sure of course you're aware of claire mccaskill's ratfucking of the missouri gop primary to obtain her desired opponent and grab 6 more years against the tide of her state's political trendlines. democrats have shown the ability to make things work on occasion, with the tea party's help

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Patter Song posted:

Cruz and Clinton strike me as the people in this race who are the most "win at all costs" cutthroat. Looking at how well Cruz's campaign has been run, it'll be even more delightful when Trump smashes him.

Bernie's campaign seems pretty hardcore, too, though. Not quite so openly vicious perhaps.

Cygna
Mar 6, 2009

The ghost of a god is no man.
My friend's parents brought the family dog to caucus with them in Iowa. She's probably the happiest Jeb! supporter in the state right now.


e: I should have caught up with this thread! Her name is Haley and she's a good dog, she doesn't deserve any of this. :(

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Cygna fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Feb 1, 2016

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

oystertoadfish posted:

i'm sure of course you're aware of claire mccaskill's ratfucking of the missouri gop primary to obtain her desired opponent and grab 6 more years against the tide of her state's political trendlines. democrats have shown the ability to make things work on occasion, with the tea party's help

So I think all that I can say on this is that, yes, I'm aware. We won that one fair and square. Unfortunately, once we won that one, RNC began to work to actively prevent any future wins with that tactic.

Don't get me started on MOGOP. Never before have I seen such a hive of antisemitic villiany in America, and I hope to god no other state is like it was there.

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Grey Fox
Jan 5, 2004

Are the upside-down exclamation marks confirmed Hispanic caucusers?

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