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Will Trump get stumped?
Yes
No
#FeelTheBern
Baby Hitler
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Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/694298930717167616

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Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
Tonight will be the girlfriend and mine's first caucus. Very excited about this. '08 my job wouldn't let me have the time off to go, have since found out that is illegal in Iowa. They have to allow three hours to go and caucus. '12 the democrats didn't really didn't have one.

I actually got a number of people excited at work to go and they might go to there respective caucuses. The plus is most either like Sanders or Trump. higher voter turn out will make America Great Again.

UrbicaMortis
Feb 16, 2012

Hmm, how shall I post today?

tsa posted:

Elections are rarely about the issues, we just have to look back to 08 to see an obvious example-- polling clearly showed Obama's appeal as the first black president to be strongly appealing to many voters. I don't know how much that's hurting or helping Hillary in this race but it's certainly something that has been heard on the campaign trail. Never underestimate the power of identity politics.

As for tonight: Bernie just isn't getting the numbers he needs to overcome the caucus effects- Hillary for the Dems and Trump, Cruz, Rubio on the Repbulican side.

I just meant more that if you didn't give a poo poo enough to pay attention until now, you probably aren't going to go stand around in a church basement during a blizzard to argue with strangers and so i don't think that non-involved women will be an edge for hillary. I do think she will win though.

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

Vox Nihili posted:

So tempting to scoop some Cruz argh.

Rubio's the better buy at those numbers. Cruz aint winning, everything points to a strong first time caucus-goer turnout.

UrbicaMortis posted:

I just meant more that if you didn't give a poo poo enough to pay attention until now, you probably aren't going to go stand around in a church basement during a blizzard to argue with strangers and so i don't think that non-involved women will be an edge for hillary. I do think she will win though.

Oh , for sure.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Joementum posted:

Got SA on one screen, Tweetdeck on the second, and MSNBC streaming on the third. A bottle of wine and a Long Trail beer variety pack. Let's do this! :getin:
You're all in for MSNBC? :monocle:

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Josh Lyman posted:

You're all in for MSNBC? :monocle:

I prefer C-SPAN, but their coverage hasn't started yet.

Watching CNN seems like a high risk proposition. Could easily result in my brain exploding.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
Between January 4 and February 1, 3,651 Iowans registered as Republicans ahead of the caucuses, according to data released Monday by the Iowa secretary of state's office.

http://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-gop-voter-registration-caucus-trump-2016-2

J. P. Beagley
Apr 11, 2008

Joementum posted:

Some conspicuous absences here. Maybe they're using Bing.


Only registered members can see post attachments!

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Official results will be here:

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Those are coming right out of the Microsoft app, so all the news orgs will be getting them from those sites. Adding this to the OP.

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

Arkane posted:

I'm about 85% sure he is trolling. If he mentioned THE WALL, I'd bump that up to 100%.

edit: he is probably still going to vote for him, to complete the troll

He is

J. P. Beagley
Apr 11, 2008

Important questions: https://google.com/trends/story/US_cu_A-CrYFIBAAD6AM_en

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
https://twitter.com/SimonMaloy/status/694300932285272065

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

When does it start to get to fun to watch the shows

Otherkinsey Scale
Jul 17, 2012

Just a little bit of sunshine!

Finally following through on that outreach.

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008
When does poo poo start getting nuts

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Joementum posted:

Official results will be here:

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Those are coming right out of the Microsoft app, so all the news orgs will be getting them from those sites. Adding this to the OP.

There's an intern out there whose sole job is to watch these pages and yell out when something happens.

I wouldn't mind being that intern.

AARP LARPer
Feb 19, 2005

THE DARK SIDE OF SCIENCE BREEDS A WEAPON OF WAR

Buglord

Joementum posted:

Official results will be here:

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Those are coming right out of the Microsoft app, so all the news orgs will be getting them from those sites. Adding this to the OP.

anyone know if these refresh automatically or am I going to break a finger F5ing all night? :f5:

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
Why is the caucusing process so unbelievably stupid?

Thump!
Nov 25, 2007

Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!



Joementum posted:

Official results will be here:

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Those are coming right out of the Microsoft app, so all the news orgs will be getting them from those sites. Adding this to the OP.

:circlefap:

Thanks for this Joe :buddy:

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Pick posted:

Why is the caucusing process so unbelievably stupid?

So that it can be controlled by the state party.

Grey Fox
Jan 5, 2004

Logikv9 posted:

There's an intern out there whose sole job is to watch these pages and yell out when something happens.

I wouldn't mind being that intern.
Sooo much better than being a Supreme Court runner, I bet.

brylcreem
Oct 29, 2007

by FactsAreUseless
lol, it starts at 2am my time (according to CNN). gently caress that noise.

i'll just get the results tomorrow morning.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

UrbicaMortis posted:

I don't think anyone who doesn't care that much about politics is going to turn up to a caucus.

I believe 2008 holds the current record for caucus turnout, and a massive 10% or so of the total population turned out.

I'm going to laugh so hard if this is a new record but it's all on the Democratic side and Trump comes in 3rd.

Grey Fox
Jan 5, 2004

Gyges posted:

I'm going to laugh so hard if this is a new record but it's all on the Democratic side and Trump comes in 3rd.
If these are the results that you see, do not be troubled. For you are in Elysium, and you're already dead.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
Man that blizzard is said to be hitting up about 2am now. Turnout will be record breaking! Nobody will have to work tomorrow, so why not caucus?

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001


Oh gently caress me #2

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

Gyges posted:

I believe 2008 holds the current record for caucus turnout, and a massive 10% or so of the total population turned out.

I'm going to laugh so hard if this is a new record but it's all on the Democratic side and Trump comes in 3rd.

None of Trump's first timers will show up with the intention of "caucusing" or voting or whatever. They'll be there to make America great again.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Mr Hootington posted:

Man that blizzard is said to be hitting up about 2am now. Turnout will be record breaking! Nobody will have to work tomorrow, so why not caucus?

higher turnout increases trump's chances, right?

SNAKES N CAKES
Sep 6, 2005

DAVID GAIDER
Lead Writer
Final predictions from 538 on the race that matters:

quote:



Polls-plus assigns Trump a 10 percent chance of finishing with 15 percent of the vote or less, which could be a campaign-ending embarrassment.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-is-the-hardest-state-to-poll/

tbh I think that 10% outcome would be the most fun to watch in the short term.

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

Mr Hootington posted:

Man that blizzard is said to be hitting up about 2am now. Turnout will be record breaking! Nobody will have to work tomorrow, so why not caucus?

So much this. Even political non-actors will have the TV on for the weather and just say gently caress it it's time to make America great again and then get comfy

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Abel Wingnut posted:

higher turnout increases trump's chances, right?

Yes! Although this is still the combination of many other factors, most importantly how many fucks do his supporters give to actually come out and caucus?

Otherkinsey Scale
Jul 17, 2012

Just a little bit of sunshine!

mdemone posted:

Oh gently caress me #2

Same but for all of them.

Although I guess it's a good thing the people who don't know are googling it. I hope the answer it spits out to #1 is just that Venn diagram of people who worked under the previous Bush administrations.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Joementum posted:

Got SA on one screen, Tweetdeck on the second, and MSNBC streaming on the third. A bottle of wine and a Long Trail beer variety pack. Let's do this! :getin:

What kinda wine you drink, Joe?

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Joementum posted:

I prefer C-SPAN, but their coverage hasn't started yet.

Watching CNN seems like a high risk proposition. Could easily result in my brain exploding.
Do you remember in the 2012 Iowa Caucus, they got on a couple old ladies at like 1am ET to discuss why the results weren't coming in?

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

Joementum posted:

Official results will be here:

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Those are coming right out of the Microsoft app, so all the news orgs will be getting them from those sites. Adding this to the OP.

What's with the double-sized county in top center?

Kossuth County

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

B B posted:

What kinda wine you drink, Joe?

Just a bottle of cheap Rioja for tonight.

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib

Brannock posted:

What's with the double-sized county in top center?

Kossuth County

It was named after Lajos Kossuth, Regent-President of Hungary who went to exile to America following the war of independence of Hungary from Austria

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

Memories

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Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
Jesus this is some bad statistics talk on MSNBC. 3 people since the 80s have won both Iowa and NH, so Bernie has it in the bag if he wins both.

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