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It's been a good day, should be up to about $3000 again (from $1000 total deposits). Might just cash out at this point.
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Feb 2, 2016 06:18
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Vox Nihili posted:It's been a good day, should be up to about $3000 again (from $1000 total deposits). Might just cash out at this point. I wish I had those kind of numbers. I went in at 70 and came out at about 140 - fees, so success was had. Gonna see if I can keep growing it.
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Feb 2, 2016 06:20
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Vox Nihili posted:Might just cash out at this point. 
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Feb 2, 2016 06:20
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Garrand posted:I could swear I remember reading that in the case of a tie all NOs would resolve, but that's not part of any rules I can find so that might have been some bs in the comments or in the thread? That is dumb and makes no sense, because there are not 0 winners, there are 2 winners. You either unwind the trades, except for those that did lose (O'Malley, Biden, etc.) or you expire both at 50.
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Feb 2, 2016 06:22
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Update your iOS you weirdo
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Feb 2, 2016 06:22
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Garrand posted:I wish I had those kind of numbers. I went in at 70 and came out at about 140 - fees, so success was had. Gonna see if I can keep growing it. It's taken months to get to $3000. Lots of stupid moves along the way.
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Feb 2, 2016 06:23
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But the winner is the person who gets the most delegates. If they have the same amount then neither candidate can win. Also I'm not saying that's how it should be. I'm really curious as to how PI will actually resolve a tie. Vox Nihili posted:It's taken months to get to $3000. Lots of stupid moves along the way. Good to hear. I'm in this for the long haul. This actually leads me to a question; how active are sites like PI during non-major election seasons? Once November rolls around and the huge bullshit around the Presidential Election ends are there enough users left over to keep the site running and making profits for the smart betters? Garrand has issued a correction as of 06:26 on Feb 2, 2016 |
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Feb 2, 2016 06:24
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Arkane posted:That is dumb and makes no sense, because there are not 0 winners, there are 2 winners. You either unwind the trades, except for those that did lose (O'Malley, Biden, etc.) or you expire both at 50. There is really no justification for going Yes or No in case of a tie. The only thing you can be certain of is that it will not expire at 50c and it will not return your money--it will simply resolve one way or another.
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Feb 2, 2016 06:25
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I really thought I'd be up $1k at the end of the night but I'm down $500, that's the way the Trumpie crumbles I guess. I'm mostly really glad I hedged my bet so much in the actual Iowa.GOP market, I was second guessing myself all day thinking I should sell those Trump No's at like 35c.
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Feb 2, 2016 06:27
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From now on I'm only buying 90%+ stocks gently caress you Ted Cruz, I hope your dick falls off
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Feb 2, 2016 06:29
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Arkane posted:That is dumb and makes no sense, because there are not 0 winners, there are 2 winners. You either unwind the trades, except for those that did lose (O'Malley, Biden, etc.) or you expire both at 50. No he's right the 'No' shares typically default to paying out in the event of anything fucky happening. Read the rules. "...receiving the greatest share of delegate support..." Greatest != Tie
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Feb 2, 2016 06:30
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Vox Nihili posted:There is really no justification for going Yes or No in case of a tie. The only thing you can be certain of is that it will not expire at 50c and it will not return your money--it will simply resolve one way or another. This is exactly how other prediction markets handle it. It's the only logical way to handle expiry. I get that this is a mickey mouse operation, but expiring everything at 0 makes no sense, and you've basically defrauded a large amount of people. You either unwind/void the bets or have dual winners.
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Feb 2, 2016 06:33
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Some of you have way more in here than I do. I'll be up about $80 - 100, depending on how much Trump recovers in NH, but I would have been up $200 if I had just done nothing, turned off my computer and went to the gym like I should have.
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Feb 2, 2016 06:35
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Arkane posted:This is exactly how other prediction markets handle it. It's the only logical way to handle expiry. I get that this is a mickey mouse operation, but expiring everything at 0 makes no sense, and you've basically defrauded a large amount of people. Welcome to the jungle, friend. (But really, dual winners makes no more sense than dual losers. The reality is that they failed to make it clear in the rules beforehand.)
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Feb 2, 2016 06:38
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Vox Nihili posted:Welcome to the jungle, friend. https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/694390253306691584?ref_src=twsrc
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Feb 2, 2016 06:39
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Hillary is still an absolutely 100% lock incase anyone wants to earn a 15-10% return.
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Feb 2, 2016 06:39
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MSNBC is reporting that there were 3 coin tosses and Hillary is 3-0
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Feb 2, 2016 06:41
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Tonight is the best night for anyone who wants to make a bunch of easy money. Bernie's going to win NH which will cause a reactive surge against Hillary, meaning everyone here will be able to pick up a bunch of cheap Hillary shares in the near future. Trump losing means that the markets will lose faith in him, despite him clearly being heavily favored in the next few primaries. Trump supporters are going to turn out in droves in response to Iowa.
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Feb 2, 2016 06:41
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a cop posted:Hillary is still an absolutely 100% lock incase anyone wants to earn a 15-10% return. Bernie.NO is bouncing all over the place right now, jeez What makes it 100% though? They're pretty close right now, it seems like things could still resolve in Bern's favor
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Feb 2, 2016 07:08
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Flavahbeast posted:Bernie.NO is bouncing all over the place right now, jeez There's a recount or some other fuckery happening now, lord save those with open shares.
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Feb 2, 2016 07:11
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Flavahbeast posted:Bernie.NO is bouncing all over the place right now, jeez Yeah....it sucks to be maxed out. The Bernliebers are the Paulites all over again.
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Feb 2, 2016 07:11
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Joe Biden up 2c for the nomination! Feeling the Bidmentum!
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Feb 2, 2016 07:13
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Flavahbeast posted:Bernie.NO is bouncing all over the place right now, jeez Hillary's people will do anything to see her win.
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Feb 2, 2016 07:13
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a cop posted:Tonight is the best night for anyone who wants to make a bunch of easy money. Bernie's going to win NH which will cause a reactive surge against Hillary, meaning everyone here will be able to pick up a bunch of cheap Hillary shares in the near future. Trump losing means that the markets will lose faith in him, despite him clearly being heavily favored in the next few primaries. Trump supporters are going to turn out in droves in response to Iowa. But Trump was leading on PI right until it turns out until reality happened, whoops. PI is a reflection of media hype, not reality.
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Feb 2, 2016 07:14
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I stayed out of the Trump market for fear that he'd somehow buck the trend with media hype, but I'm glad I was wrong.
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Feb 2, 2016 07:16
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This Iowa market can eat a dick
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Feb 2, 2016 07:30
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Yeah I just dipped my toe into the Hill-dog market with 25 bucks on Bernie No at 85% Gotta offset that Trump Stumping any way I can
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Feb 2, 2016 07:31
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BUY BUY BUY
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Feb 2, 2016 07:32
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Gibberish posted:Yeah I just dipped my toe into the Hill-dog market with 25 bucks on Bernie No at 85% Just buy Hildawg for the nom/Bernie no for the nom and wait for the cash to roll in.
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Feb 2, 2016 07:33
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Hah I just flipped Clinton-Iowa-YES twice. Good stuff.
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Feb 2, 2016 07:34
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I unwound my Hillary Iowa YES's because I'm worried about tie shenanigans. It'll cost me about $100 but gently caress it. I'll let my Bernie NO's ride.
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Feb 2, 2016 07:35
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Gibberish posted:Yeah I just dipped my toe into the Hill-dog market with 25 bucks on Bernie No at 85% Flip it, don't hold for god's sake, it might as well be a molten ingot in your hands.
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Feb 2, 2016 07:36
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Vox Nihili posted:Flip it, don't hold for god's sake, it might as well be a molten ingot in your hands. It's at like 86 now, I would make $0.25 if I did that https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIFt436r9FU
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Feb 2, 2016 07:39
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We need a WILL DONALD TRUMP WIN ANY STATES? market asap.
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Feb 2, 2016 07:48
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Arkane posted:We need a WILL DONALD TRUMP WIN ANY STATES? market asap. You ask, I deliver: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1526/Will-Donald-Trump-win-any-Republican-primaries-or-caucuses#data
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Feb 2, 2016 07:52
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Flavahbeast posted:I put a bid up for 100 Rubio NO shares in nevada at 2c each a couple nights ago and in all the excitement over the last two hours someone seems to have bought them 
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Feb 2, 2016 08:03
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Feb 2, 2016 08:06
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Arkane posted:We need a WILL DONALD TRUMP WIN ANY STATES? market asap. Vox Nihili posted:You ask, I deliver: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1526/Will-Donald-Trump-win-any-Republican-primaries-or-caucuses#data This is a good market to buy YES in right now. It has dropped from 94c before Iowa to like 77c. Apparently everyone forgot he has a 20pt lead in NH.
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Feb 2, 2016 08:06
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lol holy poo poo
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Feb 2, 2016 08:07
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Stereotype posted:This is a good market to buy YES in right now. It has dropped from 94c before Iowa to like 77c. Apparently everyone forgot he has a 20pt lead in NH. please buy yes
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Feb 2, 2016 08:09
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