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Bhaal posted:CRUZ:YES for the SC primary seemed like a good bet to make at 36c. I'm nowhere near 100% sure it will happen that way, but seems a drat sight better than 36% That market isn't liquid enough yet though. I've got 600 shares at 34, but there's basically nothing available up to 39
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Feb 2, 2016 20:30
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District Selectman posted:His lack of organization appears to be a problem in NH too. From the same article: But I'm not betting on it yet.
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Feb 2, 2016 21:00
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Omi-Polari posted:Like I was saying, he's Buchanan in '96. Ideologically the same more or less. Wins NH, picks off a smattering of Southern states while getting blown out everywhere else. This is also the perfect scenario for a split convention. Trump falters after winning a few, Rubio takes the coasts and Cruz the flyover.
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Feb 2, 2016 21:41
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New poll markets kiddos! Trump 35, Cruz 20, Rubio 15, Carson 7, and Bush! Will he make 5%?!!
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Feb 2, 2016 21:49
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Aliquid posted:This is also the perfect scenario for a split convention. Trump falters after winning a few, Rubio takes the coasts and Cruz the flyover. I would buy Romney at 0.1 cents or so if such a thing were possible, just so I could buy a ton and have an amazing sweat if he were to be drafted at the convention. Alas, even two cents is far too high a price for me.
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Feb 2, 2016 22:27
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What about buying Kasich No and Haley No for the Republican VP nomination?
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Feb 2, 2016 23:20
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Nirvikalpa posted:What about buying Kasich No and Haley No for the Republican VP nomination? Won't resolve for about 6 months, which is a long time to hold onto something that is trading in the upper 70's or 80's. Also both are as qualified as anyone and would bring something to the ticket (like Ohio and women) and you could get burned if they really are picked. I'm not biting.
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Feb 2, 2016 23:36
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Won't resolve for about 6 months, which is a long time to hold onto something that is trading in the upper 70's or 80's. Also both are as qualified as anyone and would bring something to the ticket (like Ohio and women) and you could get burned if they really are picked. I'm not biting. Yeah I bought $100 of hillary DNOM and I just want to get rid of it now. It's starring me in the face every time I load up the site..idk what I was thinking!
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Feb 3, 2016 00:26
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OrangeKing posted:I would buy Romney at 0.1 cents or so if such a thing were possible, just so I could buy a ton and have an amazing sweat if he were to be drafted at the convention. Alas, even two cents is far too high a price for me. You would buy a ton at 0.1 cent each, but not a twentieth of a ton at 2 cents?
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Feb 3, 2016 01:00
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Congrats
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Feb 3, 2016 01:11
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Nirvikalpa posted:What about buying Kasich No and Haley No for the Republican VP nomination? I think buy penny yes shares on all of them and flipping them later is the best option Edit: for the other no chance nominees
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Feb 3, 2016 01:11
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Fuschia tude posted:You would buy a ton at 0.1 cent each, but not a twentieth of a ton at 2 cents? Is that surprising? They cost the same, but have wildly different payouts.
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Feb 3, 2016 01:14
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My best bet so far (the wager was $2000 [$2 USD] on Fiorina doing less than 14.12% of the Iowa caucus vote, made at the height of her bump):
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Feb 3, 2016 01:32
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fishmech posted:$2000 [$2 USD] the dollar is maybe a little too strong atm
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Feb 3, 2016 01:37
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OrangeKing posted:I would buy Romney at 0.1 cents or so if such a thing were possible, just so I could buy a ton and have an amazing sweat if he were to be drafted at the convention. Alas, even two cents is far too high a price for me.  Been doing that for months every time I have spare change, it's a fun little project. The Perrys may not be that smart
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Feb 3, 2016 01:56
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https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/694694897459265536 Hmmmmm
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Feb 3, 2016 02:42
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the most completely predictable thing in the world is occurring weird
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Feb 3, 2016 03:00
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pathetic little tramp posted:New poll markets kiddos! Trump 35, Cruz 20, Rubio 15, Carson 7, and Bush! Will he make 5%?!! I've bet against bush poll numbers every time and january was the first month I lost, will definitely be betting against him in february. Edit: not at 70c a no share though, I'll wait for it to come down EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 03:46 on Feb 3, 2016 |
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Feb 3, 2016 03:44
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Has there been any reason given for them not paying out the Bush Drop Out Before Iowa market?
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Feb 3, 2016 04:15
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Gyges posted:Has there been any reason given for them not paying out the Bush Drop Out Before Iowa market? You mean the delay? Because I see it as paid out now.
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Feb 3, 2016 04:39
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Platystemon posted:You mean the delay? Because I see it as paid out now. PAid out means the funds are available to use.
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Feb 3, 2016 04:46
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Platystemon posted:You mean the delay? Because I see it as paid out now. I still haven't got my money. It's listed as closed but I've still got my 570 shares sitting there locking up my money. I could be using that money to place more bets that JEB gonna fail.
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Feb 3, 2016 04:55
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Feb 3, 2016 05:25
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Seems clear Trump is going to fall dramatically this week, but given how poorly cruz fits in NH and the fact that the establishment lane is still a total cluster, I'm going to start building a position in Rubio NH 2nd place. I'm all in on 3-2-? for Rubio. He won't have enough breathing room to take 1st anywhere until kasich/christie/jeb/etc start dropping Anyone else buying anything in NH 2nd?
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Feb 3, 2016 05:44
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I'm wary of NH until I see post-Iowa polling but from where it stands right now, Trump wins. I think Kasich/Bush/Christie do the crabs in the bucket thing with Rubio at the debate, and Cruz can't appeal to ~28% of the voters. 2nd is an iffy market because it could theoretically be Cruz, Rubio, Trump or Kasich, imo in order of likelihood.
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Feb 3, 2016 05:52
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Gyges posted:I still haven't got my money. It's listed as closed but I've still got my 570 shares sitting there locking up my money. I could be using that money to place more bets that JEB gonna fail. I was unaware that a market could stay expired that long without paying out.
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Feb 3, 2016 05:53
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thethreeman posted:Seems clear Trump is going to fall dramatically this week, but given how poorly cruz fits in NH and the fact that the establishment lane is still a total cluster, I'm going to start building a position in Rubio NH 2nd place. 
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Feb 3, 2016 05:54
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thethreeman posted:Seems clear Trump is going to fall dramatically this week, but given how poorly cruz fits in NH and the fact that the establishment lane is still a total cluster, I'm going to start building a position in Rubio NH 2nd place. Idk dude. Cruz is a piece of poo poo and it's IOWA.
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Feb 3, 2016 05:54
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Platystemon posted:I was unaware that a market could stay expired that long without paying out. Back in June or July, Greece rejecting their referendum took two and a half weeks to pay out after closing.
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Feb 3, 2016 05:56
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Aliquid posted:I'm wary of NH until I see post-Iowa polling but from where it stands right now, Trump wins. I think Kasich/Bush/Christie do the crabs in the bucket thing with Rubio at the debate, and Cruz can't appeal to ~28% of the voters. Rubio and Trump have a better chance than Cruz of getting 2nd.
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Feb 3, 2016 05:56
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FourLeaf posted:Rubio and Trump have a better chance than Cruz of getting 2nd. My logic is if the second-tier establishment focus their hate/money on Rubio, it could shake out Trump-Cruz-Rubio. If one of them actually catches fire, it could be Trump-Kasich-Cruz, for instance. I don't think I see a scenario where Cruz is 4th, I definitely see him as a solid 2.5.
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Feb 3, 2016 05:58
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Rubio is just so drat acceptable to a huge section of the party. I'm basing a lot of my thought on the rest of the GOPe ripping him to shreds.
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Feb 3, 2016 06:00
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Aliquid posted:2nd is an iffy market exactly a cop posted:Idk dude. Cruz is a piece of poo poo and it's IOWA. what do you mean? Are you saying he has a chance at 2nd in NH? Aliquid posted:Rubio is just so drat acceptable to a huge section of the party. I'm basing a lot of my thought on the rest of the GOPe ripping him to shreds. yeah, my theory is that this is what keeps him out of 1st place though, not 2nd. I might be overpaying for "momentum" narratives though
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Feb 3, 2016 06:07
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My gut feeling is that Kasich will disappoint in New Hampshire, like Jon Huntsman placing 3rd in 2012, and then drop out. I think Cruz bombs there, mainly based on my own voodoo which says that NH spits out the Iowa winner like bad acid, and that evangelicals don't do well there. But Cruz stays in the race because hey he won Iowa  and he's not expected to do well in NH anyways.Trump is still heavily favored for 1st and he's got the Buchananite mojo which has worked there. That leaves Rubio and Bush for 2nd. Christie is a joke. https://twitter.com/MarkHalperin/status/694676555147186176 These predictions subject to revision! BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 06:17 on Feb 3, 2016 |
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Feb 3, 2016 06:10
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thethreeman posted:what do you mean? Are you saying he has a chance at 2nd in NH? I mean it's very possible that Iowa was a fluke and Trump will continue to dominate.
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Feb 3, 2016 06:15
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Aliquid posted:Rubio is just so drat acceptable to a huge section of the party. I'm basing a lot of my thought on the rest of the GOPe ripping him to shreds. ...because they've been so effective all this season?
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Feb 3, 2016 06:15
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Fuschia tude posted:...because they've been so effective all this season? At keeping one of their own from emerging as a GOPe consensus candidate? They sure have been. Attacks work, but all they do is increase that candidate's negatives. Again, crabs in a bucket.
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Feb 3, 2016 06:19
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RIP TRUMP RIP IN PEACE 
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Feb 3, 2016 06:25
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UrAClassAct posted:RIP TRUMP wtf
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Feb 3, 2016 06:28
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UrAClassAct posted:RIP TRUMP the Trump NOs i can understand but why the gently caress would you buy Cruz YES and not Rubio YES????? Especially since this week right now is probably Cruz's peak, so you may not even be able to flip them for profit later.
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Feb 3, 2016 06:29
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