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My Imaginary GF posted:Tremors? All those anti-nuke movies of the 80's? Based on the unfounded assumption that the US Army hadn't learned the lessons of the Yom Kippur War and developed our undefeatable military. I think I missed the geopolitical subtext of Tremors, is the US represented by the sand worms or by Dolly Parton?
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Feb 3, 2016 00:19
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Flavahbeast posted:I think I missed the geopolitical subtext of Tremors, is the US represented by the sand worms or by Dolly Parton? The United States are the worm and Castro is footloose.
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Feb 3, 2016 00:46
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Grouchio posted:Have the general conditions in Egypt improved by any means since the fall of Mubarak (or Morsi)? 1) No 2) Some notable Arab authoritarians: Assad (and his father), Hussein, Nasser, Gaddafi.... so no.
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Feb 3, 2016 02:01
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Barzani said a thing:
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Feb 3, 2016 02:08
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fade5 posted:Barzani said a thing: gently caress Barzani, for the record, but he makes a good point. Good luck having a fair referendum in Kurdistan, currently filled with refugees and (purposefully) lacking many recent occupants.
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Feb 3, 2016 02:24
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Count Roland posted:1) No Notable democracies: Tunisia and to a significant degree Lebanon. Arabs truly get out of hand without a boot to their chest.
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Feb 3, 2016 02:41
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Flavahbeast posted:I think I missed the geopolitical subtext of Tremors, is the US represented by the sand worms or by Dolly Parton? Sorry, I was thinking of Threads.
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Feb 3, 2016 02:44
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Svartvit posted:Notable democracies: Tunisia and to a significant degree Lebanon. Arabs truly get out of hand without a boot to their chest. Lebanon is a solid contender for Unluckiest Modern Functioning* State.
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Feb 3, 2016 02:46
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Lebanon is a solid contender for Unluckiest Modern Functioning* State. It's not unlucky that it was designed to fail.
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Feb 3, 2016 02:47
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Count Roland posted:Good luck having a fair referendum in Kurdistan, currently filled with refugees and (purposefully) lacking many recent occupants. We need a global Marshall Plan of Referenda Syria gets new elections - Crimea and East Ukraine - Kurds get an autonomy vote. Countries with US bases get to vote on whether or not America is welcome. Daesh has to be gone, though.
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Feb 3, 2016 02:50
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Grouchio posted:Have the general conditions in Egypt improved by any means since the fall of Mubarak (or Morsi)? Shadi Hamid had an excellent article on this exact subject not long ago. quote:From July 2013 to May 2015, there were a total of 1,223 attacks over 23 months, an average of 53.2 attacks per month. In the 23 months prior to June 2013, there were a mere 78 attacks, an average of 3.4 attacks per month. quote:On Oct. 24, 2014, at least 33 Egyptian soldiers were killed, in what was, until then, the deadliest attack on security personnel since the coup. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis claimed responsibility. In response, Egyptian authorities moved to establish a buffer zone, forcing up to 10,000 residents to evacuate their homes, some with only 48 hours notice. The Egyptians military’s narrow security lens and harsh tactics have, in effect, further alienated local residents and helped fuel the insurgency. Shortly after the army began “relocating” villages, the number of attacks increased once again, but this time to previously unheard-of levels. The first five months of 2015 saw an average of 114.6 attacks, with an all-time high of 138 attacks in May. There's a lot more here. http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/06/sisi-is-the-best-gift-the-islamic-state-ever-got/
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Feb 3, 2016 03:20
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McDowell posted:We need a global Marshall Plan of Referenda You are unironically worse than MIGF.
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Feb 3, 2016 03:20
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McDowell posted:We need a global Marshall Plan of Referenda I like your stuff sometimes but this is just atrocious.
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Feb 3, 2016 03:24
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Bip Roberts posted:It's not unlucky that it was designed to fail. And yet even beyond that, it keeps getting kicked in the teeth by neighboring events. Israel's regular slapfights with Hezbollah, absolutely preposterous Syrian refugee influx, and before that Syria's ongoing efforts to make it functionally a vassal state. I guess numbers 1 and 3 could have been predicted by the political geography, but still.
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Feb 3, 2016 04:05
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TildeATH posted:You are unironically worse than MIGF. He's great.
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Feb 3, 2016 04:20
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Count Roland posted:I like your stuff sometimes but this is just atrocious. It's the best idea I've got for how to bring reason back to the world  What else can the Kissingers or all the think tankers offer as the dream of interdependence and peace seems to dissolve into ethnic and fundamentalist strife?
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Feb 3, 2016 04:45
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The world is already governed by reason McDowell, it's all just physics. The 21st century is when the World imposes reason on man and his follies.
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Feb 3, 2016 05:18
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McDowell posted:It's the best idea I've got for how to bring reason back to the world How about my proposal to hand all the bad people in the world a gun with a single bullet.
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Feb 3, 2016 05:19
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Squalid posted:The world is already governed by reason McDowell, it's all just physics. The 21st century is when the World imposes reason on man and his follies. That is the darker side of my Gnostic belief - but I try to be positive. Bip Roberts posted:How about my proposal to hand all the bad people in the world a gun with a single bullet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eE3-sxaOJDo Neil Breen died for your sins.
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Feb 3, 2016 05:26
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fool_of_sound posted:He's great. McDowell is great. Dark Gnostism ftw!
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Feb 3, 2016 11:06
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quote:"The way I see it, some members of the opposition, formed according to a list in Riyadh, are too pampered by some sponsors, in particular, Turkey, who blocked the emergence of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party," he said. Said the Russian Foreign Minister on behalf of Assad at the peace talks for the Syrian Civil War.  http://tass.ru/en/politics/854184?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tass%2FQvIl+%28TASS%29
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Feb 3, 2016 11:22
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Bip Roberts posted:How about my proposal to hand all the bad people in the world a gun with a single bullet. The bullet manufacturing lobbyist has gotten to you too? 
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Feb 3, 2016 14:28
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Reports are coming in that Daesh's supreme commanders have booked it to Libya.
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Feb 3, 2016 18:39
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If that's the case they're dumber than I thought. The CIA is all over the loving place in Libya and literally anyone will sell them out for a suitcase full of cash.
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Feb 3, 2016 18:47
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Zeroisanumber posted:If that's the case they're dumber than I thought. The CIA is all over the loving place in Libya and literally anyone will sell them out for a suitcase full of cash. And big news, apparently the siege of Nubl and Zahraa has finally been broken:  Note that this does not mean the Idlib rebels are cut off from Turkey, there's still border access on the other side to the southwest of Afrin canton. It does split the rebels into two groups though. One of the opposition groups has an opinions about the Kurds: https://twitter.com/gebeilym/status/694847773980676096 quote:Asked by a Rudaw reporter his view on the YPG, Alloush said: "We consider forces like the PYD to be a branch of the regime." #TwitterKurds quote:Senior Syrian opposition negotiator Mohamed Alloush, representing Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army), a major rebel group, said on Tuesday he was not optimistic about the prospects for peace talks in Geneva. fade5 fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Feb 3, 2016 |
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Feb 3, 2016 19:39
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fade5 posted:I forget, does the Libyan population still like us for getting rid of Gaddafi? Or at least part of the Libyan population? Because if so it seems like it'd be not all that difficult to find local ground allies to support against ISIL, if ISIL really is going to shift themselves to Libya. They consider the PYD to be allies with the regime based on the regime enclaves within PYD territory and the peace between them. And they're very much "you're either with us or against us" types. That's what all the fighting that has happened between non-ISIS opposition groups and the YPG have been about, and there's a fairly long record of it. So it's not so much making enemies as it is using their stage to troll them.
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Feb 3, 2016 19:47
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Grouchio posted:Have the general conditions in Egypt improved by any means since the fall of Mubarak (or Morsi)? Pretty deep questions. One take: authoritarian states exist by ripping apart the internal mechanics of a country until it is the only thing pulling it together, like a particularly efficient parasite. Institutions, checks on corruption and abuse, that falls to the wayside in favor of the primary objective, staying in power. Egypt wasn't any better in all 12 months of Morsi's rule because of all the remnants of the authoritarian deep state (the military, the judiciary, etc) driven to see him and MB fall, along with no tools available to actually create a more positive outcome, due to my first point above. Democracy happens when it becomes sustainable due to strong institutions, aneducated and hopeful populace and elite, and a lucky wind shrinking authoritarian elements in the state ala Tunisia (which is stil on somewhat shaky grounds, in no small part due to the instability of their neighbors). Democracy leading to better off outcomes is the last in a long line of necessary steps, IMO.
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Feb 3, 2016 19:53
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Grouchio posted:
That was the general conclusion of the Iraq war, both on the US and Iraqi side. This is what really held Obama back during the red line timeframe- it's not enough that someone is really really bad, we need a general plan for how removing them will make things better. Shageletic posted:Democracy happens when it becomes sustainable due to strong institutions, aneducated and hopeful populace and elite, and a lucky wind shrinking authoritarian elements in the state ala Tunisia (which is stil on somewhat shaky grounds, in no small part due to the instability of their neighbors). Good points here.
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Feb 3, 2016 20:26
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I like how people here keep wondering if democracy is a good thing for Arabs when the west (and east) have spent the last century and until today doing everything in their power to prevent it from happening, it's literally the only thing Arabs have never gotten a chance to do. so it stands to reason that it's an improvement over their current situation. what does he even mean by 'world security' as opposed to the magnificent track record left behind by the dictatorships.
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Feb 3, 2016 20:52
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i can't take anyone who actually thinks saying 'daesh' is some kind of verbal victory seriously
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Feb 3, 2016 20:54
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fade5 posted:And big news, apparently the siege of Nubl and Zahraa has finally been broken: The rebels do still have supply lines, but it is limits them quite a bit, and possibly stretches supply lines to Aleppo further. In addition, makes their lines far more predictable thus easier to target with airstrikes. If pro-government forces can sustain their advance, it could very well be fairly decisive for the Aleppo front. Also, PYD/YPG - regime links have been discussed for a while, and I think it is evidence there is some active cooperation there even if they have separate motives. That said, I think any strategy from the West that counts the Kurds as a force to balance the regime is pretty much a dead-letter at this point. Shageletic posted:Pretty deep questions. One take: authoritarian states exist by ripping apart the internal mechanics of a country until it is the only thing pulling it together, like a particularly efficient parasite. Institutions, checks on corruption and abuse, that falls to the wayside in favor of the primary objective, staying in power. I think the economic argument needs to be mentioned as well, Tunisia was also willing to channel deficit spending into entry level public sector jobs which has so far made a big difference. You need a stable economic foundation if you hope to build any sort of workable democratic institutions. In Egypt, it didn't exist for a variety of reasons and really still hasn't even with the amount of money that has been flowing from the Gulf states to Sisi. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Feb 3, 2016 |
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Feb 3, 2016 21:02
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Ardennes posted:
Oh yeah definitely. The correlation between income and the likelihood of a democratic transformation, aka the Lipsit's rule, has been around for fifty years or so, and the ability for a well resourced and agile government to tamp down disconnect is pretty obvious.
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Feb 3, 2016 22:11
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a hundred boners posted:i can't take anyone who actually thinks saying 'daesh' is some kind of verbal victory seriously I would argue that it is a tiny step up in terms of both annoying them slightly more than isis/isil, and in terms of a teensy bit of Western cognitive time noticing a funny Arabic wordplay. What term would you prefer and why? (I actually think something like "the Rakka theocracy" would be nice but that is cumbersome.)
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Feb 3, 2016 22:15
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I would argue that it is a tiny step up in terms of both annoying them slightly more than isis/isil, and in terms of a teensy bit of Western cognitive time noticing a funny Arabic wordplay. As long as it's not IS, the worst and most ungoogleable English acronym ever, whatever works. Islamic State, BBC's "the Islamic State Group", ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, w/e. Just not IS e: raqqa theocracy aka RT would be a nice troll
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Feb 3, 2016 22:25
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Yet again we find ourselves asking what the definition of 'IS' is.
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Feb 3, 2016 22:27
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I would argue that it is a tiny step up in terms of both annoying them slightly more than isis/isil, and in terms of a teensy bit of Western cognitive time noticing a funny Arabic wordplay. ISIS/IS. Preferably ISIS given that IS is the weakest acronym ever. People tend to want to disassociate the group from anything related to a caliphate in the aim of disassociating them from Islam, and while that comes from the right place, it's the wrong conclusion to draw. ISIS is a caliphate. ISIS is 100% what a caliphate today looks like in practice. If you try to say ISIS isn't really an Islamic state, than you're building in an excuse for jihadists when that state fails. "ISIS failed because it wasn't a real Islamic state, we can do it better." Daesh of course is an abbreviation for the name so it isn't really circumventing calling them an Islamic state in theory, but I think in practice in the west it's meant as a term to sort of have a laugh at their Islamic legitimacy and their legitimacy to describe themselves as a caliphate. Of course, it's a bit different in the Middle East, where it's more a term of defiance than one of mocking.
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Feb 3, 2016 22:33
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https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/694982132121280512
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Feb 3, 2016 22:48
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Well that was fast
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Feb 3, 2016 22:58
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Cat Army 
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quote:#Syria’s opposition team will leave #Geneva tomorrow morning. They will not return until convinced of better conditions on the ground. In other political news, the Syrian Kurds are continuing their "Russia or USA, why not both" strategy: https://twitter.com/yurybarmin/status/694940851416473600 quote:Syrian Kurds are opening their office in Moscow on Feb 10. According to sources this PYD representation will serve as a diplomatic mission A map of the north Aleppo area from Peto Lucem:  Another map and a very interesting and in-depth article about what the SAA's advance means for the North Aleppo supply lines:  quote:Now, from this newly captured high ground, regime troops can fire on “anything that moves” within this corridor, namely, merchants moving fuel and food back and forth as agreed upon by Idlib rebels and the Islamic State. fade5 fucked around with this message at 23:31 on Feb 3, 2016 |
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Feb 3, 2016 23:23
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Al-Saqr posted:I like how people here keep wondering if democracy is a good thing for Arabs when the west (and east) have spent the last century and until today doing everything in their power to prevent it from happening, it's literally the only thing Arabs have never gotten a chance to do. so it stands to reason that it's an improvement over their current situation. I don't think that people are wondering if democracy is a good thing for Arabs, people are simply wondering if the conditions are right. Our first attempt at democracy in Germany ended in a catastrophe, because after the fall of the authoritarian institutions, the moderate center couldn't hold the state together against a hostile extreme left and extreme right. With the result that the Nazis took over and ended that experiment with democracy. Or look at South America, where many of these democracies experienced military dictatorships taking over their countries for a while, mostly because they used the dumb US system of democracy. I don't think it's wrong to wonder if similar adverse conditions exist for Arab states.
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Feb 3, 2016 23:39
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