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Aliquid posted:Romney NOM crashed because he's endorsing Rubio. From what I read, this might not be happening any time soon, and he has not picked a candidate. The rest was speculation about what he might do.
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Feb 4, 2016 05:55
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Does anyone know where to find the NH poll was that showed second choice by candidate?
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Feb 4, 2016 06:09
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District Selectman posted:Does anyone know where to find the NH poll was that showed second choice by candidate?
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Feb 4, 2016 12:46
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Vox Nihili posted:Latest buys: I picked up 20 shares of this too. Seems like an easy flip after NH. Not a huge profit, but why not.
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Feb 4, 2016 13:16
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Peachstapler posted:I only searched for a few minutes but I found several articles from this week stating that among Cruz and Trump supporters in NH, Rubio is a popular second choice. NH voters who have Bush and Kasisch as first choices have been indicating they'll vote for Rubio if only to coalesce around an anti-Trump/Cruz. I'm trying to find the chart that showed the second choice percentages by candidate. drat, I should have bookmarked it! I know Rand only has 3 points to give, but it's interesting to me that he dropped out pre-NH. It seems like his donors told him to gently caress off in NH.
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Feb 4, 2016 15:56
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Gibberish posted:I picked up 20 shares of this too. Seems like an easy flip after NH. Not a huge profit, but why not. Why? No one expects Hillary to win NH. Best case for Bernie is that he wins big and maintains the status quo. Worst case is anything else, like even a close win. If somehow he loses, the DNom is over.
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Feb 4, 2016 15:57
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Peachstapler posted:I only searched for a few minutes but I found several articles from this week stating that among Cruz and Trump supporters in NH, Rubio is a popular second choice. NH voters who have Bush and Kasisch as first choices have been indicating they'll vote for Rubio if only to coalesce around an anti-Trump/Cruz. I like Rubio for 2nd here, too -- he's more palatable than Cruz, and the nature of it being a primary, not a caucus, does lend to more people sticking to their guns with Bush and Christie, etc. There won't be Rubio or Cruz supporters in the polling booths to convince Jeb! supporters to change their vote.
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Feb 4, 2016 16:13
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District Selectman posted:I'm trying to find the chart that showed the second choice percentages by candidate. drat, I should have bookmarked it! I know Rand only has 3 points to give, but it's interesting to me that he dropped out pre-NH. It seems like his donors told him to gently caress off in NH. Rand was really pissed off that Cruz had convinced his followers, albeit slowly, that he stands for their core beliefs and throughout the last six months they slowly trickled away from the Paul campaign. You'll probably see some Paul supporters coast to the Cruz camp in NH because of the Cruz campaign's slow romancing but I do not believe this is going to make a difference. I would expect Bush to top Cruz in NH before Cruz takes 3rd, as crazy as that sounds. railroad terror posted:I like Rubio for 2nd here, too -- he's more palatable than Cruz, and the nature of it being a primary, not a caucus, does lend to more people sticking to their guns with Bush and Christie, etc. There won't be Rubio or Cruz supporters in the polling booths to convince Jeb! supporters to change their vote.
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Feb 4, 2016 16:37
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Buy Trump Nos, dump them Sunday when Trump Yeses get cold feet. Rubio Runner Up is a good buy right now before it inevitably goes higher with the trickling endorsements and movement in polls. The media narrative coming out of the next debate will say that Rubio won - mostly because he did the best at deflecting questions and talking about Obama and Hillary.
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Feb 4, 2016 16:46
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District Selectman posted:Why? No one expects Hillary to win NH. Best case for Bernie is that he wins big and maintains the status quo. Worst case is anything else, like even a close win. If somehow he loses, the DNom is over. Bernie fans have been bumrushing his markets pretty predictably.
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Feb 4, 2016 17:27
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Easy money to be made if Bernie cruises to a double digit NH win --- his 25c to win the nomination will inevitably have a short spike. e: A clean $48 to be made for anyone with the max to put down on CRUZ NO to win NH --- 1000+ shares available at 94c. railroad terror has issued a correction as of 18:11 on Feb 4, 2016 |
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Feb 4, 2016 17:57
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railroad terror posted:Easy money to be made if Bernie cruises to a double digit NH win --- his 25c to win the nomination will inevitably have a short spike. Be careful with that kind of assumption! Necc0 posted:Always remember that on this site you're up against people playing the same game as you are, not the general public at large. It may seem like the latter a lot, but it's not.
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Feb 4, 2016 18:23
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trump yes in nh is at $.73. do we see that going much lower? are we expecting any polls that'll bring his price down?
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Feb 4, 2016 18:34
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District Selectman posted:Why? No one expects Hillary to win NH. Best case for Bernie is that he wins big and maintains the status quo. Worst case is anything else, like even a close win. If somehow he loses, the DNom is over. That's the point. People will think Bernie has momentum and that Hillary will lose NV afterwards. The price will spike up until people realize that Hillary has had a fat lead there for months. That's when we flip it. It's all very simple, really.
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Feb 4, 2016 18:48
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Abel Wingnut posted:trump yes in nh is at $.73. do we see that going much lower? are we expecting any polls that'll bring his price down? I think I'm holding off until maybe Sunday to jump in but this still looks solid to me
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Feb 4, 2016 18:58
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Abel Wingnut posted:trump yes in nh is at $.73. do we see that going much lower? are we expecting any polls that'll bring his price down? I expect his lead to shrink, but perhaps not quickly enough to reduce the price.
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Feb 4, 2016 19:03
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For the GOP VP Nom, it feels like a decent field to play since just about everyone except Kasich is > 80c for NO. Rob Portman, for instance, feels underrepresented. Him being a senator in a huge swing state alone gives a lot of credit towards getting the VP spot simply for the one-off tactic of shoring up election chances. I placed a long odds bet on him but don't know what else can be done with the GOP-VP market. I think I might just be trying to rationalize what is straight up roll of the dice gambling
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Feb 4, 2016 19:32
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Who has the penny picks??
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Feb 4, 2016 19:37
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Abel Wingnut posted:trump yes in nh is at $.73. do we see that going much lower? are we expecting any polls that'll bring his price down? This seems like the safest bet with a decent payout on the site right now. It will fluctuate around and if you put an order in for 68 I bet it would be filled, but I don't see it going a lot lower. If anything it will trend higher as new polling comes out. The UMass/Channel 7 poll was mostly done after Iowa and its basically the same as before. New Hampshire takes pride in not following Iowa's lead besides.
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Feb 4, 2016 19:44
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I intend to spend a few hours combing through some polling data with a fine tooth comb, but I'm not sure what to look for yet, I gotta pick a market to investigate
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Feb 4, 2016 19:47
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Vox Nihili posted:Latest buys: This looks like a win to me
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Feb 4, 2016 19:51
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Zeta Taskforce posted:This seems like the safest bet with a decent payout on the site right now. It will fluctuate around and if you put an order in for 68 I bet it would be filled, but I don't see it going a lot lower. If anything it will trend higher as new polling comes out. The UMass/Channel 7 poll was mostly done after Iowa and its basically the same as before. New Hampshire takes pride in not following Iowa's lead besides. Yeah it's about as good as the Bernie NO for president from a few weeks back that was down to 65, because of the quicker return. Next Monday I get nearly 30 cents for all 200 of my shares, feels good man.
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Feb 4, 2016 19:54
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I'm also Trump YES NH @ 69-cents. On the fence about maxing out on Trump.
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Feb 4, 2016 19:55
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Some guy in the comments made a big long effort-post about how Trump having a 20 point lead in the latest polls is actually bad for him, so I wager that's why it's so cheap to buy shares right now.
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Feb 4, 2016 19:59
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Could be the PPP poll from earlier today but I think they have their thumb on the scale a bit.
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Feb 4, 2016 20:02
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Sanders is in the low 90's, so buying Sanders Yes is 10%. What you have to ask is if Bernie of the likely 20-30 point lead and definite 50% threshold = more or less than 3 times as safe as Trump.
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Feb 4, 2016 21:29
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pathetic little tramp posted:Some guy in the comments made a big long effort-post about how Trump having a 20 point lead in the latest polls is actually bad for him, so I wager that's why it's so cheap to buy shares right now. Huh, didn't know Harry Enten was on PredictIt.
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Feb 4, 2016 21:32
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Adar posted:Sanders is in the low 90's, so buying Sanders Yes is 10%. What you have to ask is if Bernie of the likely 20-30 point lead and definite 50% threshold = more or less than 3 times as safe as Trump. I get what you are asking. I think both are overwhelming favorites to win, but Bernie probably is 3 times safer. Fewer moving parts in the Dem race, only 2 serious candidates, stable polling, less press coverage, no recent history of flavors of the month.
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Feb 4, 2016 21:56
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Buying a shitload of Cruz.Above20.NO in order to flip them when the iowagate news permeates.
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Feb 4, 2016 23:05
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a cop posted:Buying a shitload of Cruz.Above20.NO in order to flip them when the iowagate news permeates. Thanks for the headsup, that poo poo is all over Twitter - and it's breitbart, i.e. the exact same people who made Ted Cruz. He's done.
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Feb 4, 2016 23:09
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a cop posted:Buying a shitload of Cruz.Above20.NO in order to flip them when the iowagate news permeates. I'm not a Republican, and I sure don't like this pile of dog poo poo, so I am probably don't have a good pulse on what the average Cruz supporter thinks. That said, I can't see Iowagate really mattering. It just reads like sour grapes.
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Feb 4, 2016 23:21
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a cop posted:Buying a shitload of Cruz.Above20.NO in order to flip them when the iowagate news permeates.
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Feb 4, 2016 23:22
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I'm not a Republican, and I sure don't like this pile of dog poo poo, so I am probably don't have a good pulse on what the average Cruz supporter thinks. That said, I can't see Iowagate really mattering. It just reads like sour grapes. I kind of agree. Cruz's supporters are going to be heavily religious and if there's one thing religious people are good at it's denying and rejecting evidence to the contrary of whatever it is makes them feel good.
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Feb 4, 2016 23:32
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apparently breitbart has another story about cruz coming out after nh that's way worse. doesn't look too good for him...
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Feb 4, 2016 23:45
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Abel Wingnut posted:apparently breitbart has another story about cruz coming out after nh that's way worse. doesn't look too good for him... they're going to sit on a story for a week?
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Feb 4, 2016 23:50
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Arkane posted:they're going to sit on a story for a week?
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Feb 4, 2016 23:51
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New debate markets out! Coin flip mention yay or nay + speaking time.
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Feb 5, 2016 00:20
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Vox Nihili posted:New debate markets out! Coin flip mention yay or nay + speaking time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDGlN6mluGA a cop posted:Buying a shitload of Cruz.Above20.NO in order to flip them when the iowagate news permeates. Zeta Taskforce posted:I get what you are asking. I think both are overwhelming favorites to win, but Bernie probably is 3 times safer. Fewer moving parts in the Dem race, only 2 serious candidates, stable polling, less press coverage, no recent history of flavors of the month. https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/695030317921484800 Though also to be fair, Sanders has been consistently ahead and way more ahead than Obama was. BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 00:44 on Feb 5, 2016 |
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Feb 5, 2016 00:22
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pathetic little tramp posted:Some guy in the comments made a big long effort-post about how Trump having a 20 point lead in the latest polls is actually bad for him, so I wager that's why it's so cheap to buy shares right now. Stupid walls of texts effectively change the markets you say? Interesting.....
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Feb 5, 2016 01:25
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Vox Nihili posted:New debate markets out! Coin flip mention yay or nay + speaking time. Second that this is a risky coin flip However if I had to guess I'd say Clinton will get more time this debate She is desperate and nervous and she tends to over-state things and go on and on feeling the crowd response as she talks, extending it until she can bring it to a soft landing. Bernie does this "drop the mic" move when he feels he's got the advantage
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Feb 5, 2016 01:31
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