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nachos posted:Every Rubio YES share I own in every market tanked after this debate, lol Hell yeah!
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Feb 7, 2016 03:51
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Oh no wrong thread, I guess I'll say that now is the time to get undervalued Rubio shares, because he's getting his poo poo wrecked from all sides. tinstaach has issued a correction as of 04:17 on Feb 7, 2016 |
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Feb 7, 2016 04:02
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Now I feel like I should have actually watched this debate.
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Feb 7, 2016 04:15
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Gyges posted:Now I feel like I should have actually watched this debate. This one has been spectacular
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Feb 7, 2016 04:15
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Gyges posted:Now I feel like I should have actually watched this debate. Christie spent like 5 minutes steam rolling Rubio over and over again. It was glorious. (Also I dumped my Rubio 2nd shares for a small profit, probably gonna pick them up again for cheaper than I got them originally now.)
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Feb 7, 2016 04:18
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Do we know who won speaking time yet? I didn't put anything down for it, but I'm curious.
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Feb 7, 2016 04:53
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CornflakeS.Pecially posted:Do we know who won speaking time yet? I didn't put anything down for it, but I'm curious. Rubot
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Feb 7, 2016 05:02
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I've been sitting on some Rubio.RNom.16 No shares that I bought when I was drunk 3 days before the Iowa caucus... I am obsessing about whether I should unload them now or wait for further Rubio fallout from the debate performance or NH primary.
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Feb 7, 2016 05:12
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So...I think I have a gambling problem 
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Feb 7, 2016 05:38
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sharkbomb posted:I've been sitting on some Rubio.RNom.16 No shares that I bought when I was drunk 3 days before the Iowa caucus... I am obsessing about whether I should unload them now or wait for further Rubio fallout from the debate performance or NH primary. Right now is the over reaction Lock in some profits now imo
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Feb 7, 2016 05:46
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Garrand posted:So...I think I have a gambling problem If you're serious please liquidate all your shares and unsubscribe from this thread. This site definitely isn't for everyone
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Feb 7, 2016 05:46
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I think I will. I dumped way more of my tax refund into this than I initially intended. Luckily I've made some profit but should probably get out while I'm ahead. Goodbye thread 
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Feb 7, 2016 05:49
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Sold my Trump Yes NH shares @ 84c.
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Feb 7, 2016 05:50
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Vox Nihili posted:Sold my Trump Yes NH shares @ 84c. Honestly the polls are showing a likely Trump win, not sure you need to sell at all.
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Feb 7, 2016 06:42
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so my Trump 35% NOs are getting crushed tonight, and I understand why... If he wins NH, I guess the assumption is his national numbers will shoot up. That said, the last two polls since IA had him at 29% and 31%; he's barely above 30% average even IN new hampshire; once bush/christie/kasich(?) drop after NH, I don't think he'll pick up many 2nd choice votes; and despite Rubot's meltdown tonight, I still don't think he's going to disappear as the establishment guy Shares are sitting there with a huge 57c /67c bid/ask spread. I think I'll hold off on buying more until after my Trump NH YESes pay off though... Does this seem like easy money to anyone else or am I failing to accept the trumpmentum?
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Feb 7, 2016 06:49
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JosefStalinator posted:Honestly the polls are showing a likely Trump win, not sure you need to sell at all. I think it's 80-90% likely, so I'm happy to get off the train before the last stop.
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Feb 7, 2016 07:05
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JosefStalinator posted:Honestly the polls are showing a likely Trump win, not sure you need to sell at all. Also the Trump wins nothing market is in the single digits. That seems like the much better hedge than selling your Trump NH YES shares now.
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Feb 7, 2016 07:17
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thethreeman posted:so my Trump 35% NOs are getting crushed tonight, and I understand why... If he wins NH, I guess the assumption is his national numbers will shoot up. That said, the last two polls since IA had him at 29% and 31%; he's barely above 30% average even IN new hampshire; once bush/christie/kasich(?) drop after NH, I don't think he'll pick up many 2nd choice votes; and despite Rubot's meltdown tonight, I still don't think he's going to disappear as the establishment guy I bought a bunch earlier this week but sold them for a small loss before the debate, looks like I got out just in time. They'll probably pay out in the end but it's too uncertain for me
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Feb 7, 2016 07:44
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thethreeman posted:despite Rubot's meltdown tonight, I still don't think he's going to disappear as the establishment guy How is this an opinion. I know FOX will spin as an early gaffe recovered but HOW. This exchange is most defining since "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy." do you not realize that an attack ad couldd combine the Morning Joe Santorum clip with this new debate clip? There is absolutely no way he can now get elected because these two things in combination ruined his best argument: that he would beat Hillary in the general election. He literally had no other argument. now that it is clear that he can be completely decimated he is finished. Im sure it got good ratings too. Full disclosure, 2 mins after gaffe i bought 112 shares of Rubio no RNOM for 53c, 1000 in Christie for 2c each and Kasich at 6%. Oiled and Ready has issued a correction as of 10:25 on Feb 7, 2016 |
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Feb 7, 2016 10:22
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Let the Republicans cannibalize each other
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Feb 7, 2016 10:29
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Aliquid posted:I think Rubio is a good bet for most speaking time since the widest array of candidates will be attacking him at every chance, giving him an opportunity to respond. This was clearly a good and prescient bet. But perhaps he should have, you know, actually responded. I'm surprised you still won. He didn't need to be attacked much considering the first one defined the entire race and the storyline of career politicians.
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Feb 7, 2016 10:29
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I’ve always thought that Rubio was out of his depth, and this is yet more evidence of that, but I don’t think this in particular is the deathblow. It’s not a “Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy” or even a “Please proceed, governor” moment. It’s a fairly long exchange, by 2016 news standards, it has to be watched in its entirety, and it helps if there’s someone confirming that that’s no looped tape, no déjà vu— Rubio really is that robotic. He’ll be pilloried on shows whose formats allow it, but it’s not a quotable gaffe. His rivals can’t reference it in a “remember that time he praised Obama” kind of way. As an aside, I really wanted Rubs to win the nomination before breaking down. I’ve always considered him the least dangerous in the general election. Trump defies the known laws of politics, Cruz has animal cunning, and while the others aren’t great politicians, they have a lot more experience than Rubio. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 14:39 on Feb 7, 2016 |
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Feb 7, 2016 14:24
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I'm really tempted to buy up some Rubio YES now that it's falling below 40 but that was some pretty bad debatin
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Feb 7, 2016 19:15
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Flavahbeast posted:I'm really tempted to buy up some Rubio YES now that it's falling below 40 but that was some pretty bad debatin I think the Wall Street term for doing that is "trying to catch a falling knife"
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Feb 7, 2016 19:36
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If you put me on the spot today: Rubio 50% Cruz 30% !/K/C/F 15% with most of that to Christie T 5% If Rubio is 3rd in NH drop that 10% and give it to Cruz. If Rubio is 4th drop him 30% and split it between the non-doctor C's.
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Feb 7, 2016 19:37
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If there was an eligibility contract on Cruz, where would it be trading?
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Feb 7, 2016 20:22
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Arkane posted:If there was an eligibility contract on Cruz, where would it be trading?
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Feb 7, 2016 20:23
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Peachstapler posted:How would it even resolve? It's a hypothetical! On a completely different point, it is interesting how "bad" PredictIt is at dealing with favorites. Basically every favorite is bid up way too high, relative to their respective chances. Far too much confidence in the status quo.
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Feb 7, 2016 20:26
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Arkane posted:If there was an eligibility contract on Cruz, where would it be trading? I'm sure there's just enough people who don't understand how America works to keep it in the low 90s when coupled with the time frame. Edit: Nope, low to mid 80s. Maybe even in the 70s. I just checked and Biden for the Democratic Nominee is in the low to mid 90s.
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Feb 7, 2016 20:31
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I considered putting equal bets on Rubio and Kasich for 2nd seeing as they're both sub 40c but then saw Cruz at 16c- with him only being a few points behind both of them in the polls I feel like it could be a good opportunity for some of you gamblers to get a nice 5:1+ payoff. He's got enough of a chance at second that makes me not want to really hedge between the other two.
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Feb 7, 2016 20:44
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Hot take: I think Rubio will still pull off 2nd place by hoovering up the day-of folks who didn't bother watching debates, etc.
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Feb 7, 2016 21:01
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Oiled and Ready posted:How is this an opinion. I know FOX will spin as an early gaffe recovered but HOW. This exchange is most defining since "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy." do you not realize that an attack ad couldd combine the Morning Joe Santorum clip with this new debate clip? There is absolutely no way he can now get elected because these two things in combination ruined his best argument: that he would beat Hillary in the general election. He literally had no other argument. now that it is clear that he can be completely decimated he is finished. yeah I quickly sold every rubio YES I had in three different markets, and that was clearly the right call... I really underestimated the media. I'm mostly just rationalizing holding my Trump 35% NOs Trying to think through fallout from rubio's mess, without having to guess which establishment candidate will make it through: I just bought a bunch of South Carolina Cruz YESes for 24c, assuming he'll jump if he outperforms NH now... Rubio 15% NOs are actually pretty interesting in the low 30s, but that's a long contract... Some of the super tuesday primary markets look interesting if you think rubio looks bad in NH - he's still in the 30s/40s in MA, VT, etc...
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Feb 7, 2016 21:03
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Gyges posted:I'm sure there's just enough people who don't understand how America works to keep it in the low 90s when coupled with the time frame. Assuming I know that a judge or judges would decide it, I'd buy him being ruled ineligible anything below 20%. Doesn't seem very cut and dry for him.
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Feb 7, 2016 21:07
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Vox Nihili posted:Hot take: I think Rubio will still pull off 2nd place by hoovering up the day-of folks who didn't bother watching debates, etc. Alternate theory: Half of New Hampshire goes to a party today to watch commercials, where at least one person will bring up his debate performance.
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Feb 7, 2016 21:17
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:I considered putting equal bets on Rubio and Kasich for 2nd seeing as they're both sub 40c but then saw Cruz at 16c- with him only being a few points behind both of them in the polls I feel like it could be a good opportunity for some of you gamblers to get a nice 5:1+ payoff. He's got enough of a chance at second that makes me not want to really hedge between the other two. I bought a chunk of Cruz 2nd at 14c earlier today. It's a weird spot but I like it at the price
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Feb 7, 2016 21:18
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MisterJed posted:I bought a chunk of Cruz 2nd at 14c earlier today. It's a weird spot but I like it at the price Cruz 2nd looks like a good bet if you assume Rubio takes a hit and Christie pulls back into the race. If the 4 establishment players finish about even, Cruz could nab 2nd with 17% of the vote or something around there.
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Feb 7, 2016 21:33
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I would note that Rubio crushed his Iowa polling expectations by 6 points. Cruz beat his by 3 1/2 points, but this was expected given his huge GOTV effort and major infrastructure investments. Rubio was widely mocked for his mediocre Iowa campaign. New Hampshire isn't Iowa, but Rubio might continue to beat his polling numbers if the undecided folks swing his way. The question is how much damage did the debate actually inflict on Rubio?
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Feb 7, 2016 21:38
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MisterJed posted:I bought a chunk of Cruz 2nd at 14c earlier today. It's a weird spot but I like it at the price Same, I'm betting on his organization being strong enough to get a solid turnout and overperform. Also maybe another round of dirty tricks? I bought some Kasich 2nd yesterday at 18c completely on a whim, hoping for something in the debates. Although truthfully I was thinking more that he'd do well, not that Rubio would implode. Just sold at 36c because I'm pessimistic about the guy's chances for 2nd and I can't see the price getting much higher, but I may be really regretting it come Tuesday
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Feb 7, 2016 21:40
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Careful putting money on Cruz. A quote just leaked where he called American troops "psychopaths".
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Feb 7, 2016 21:41
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a cop posted:Careful putting money on Cruz. A quote just leaked where he called American troops "psychopaths". I think he thinks a foxhole is a place where you do fights mano-a-mano with the enemy, but it is a bad quote taken out of context. Any of Cruz/Rubio/Kasich/Bush 2nd under .20 is a good buy imo
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Feb 7, 2016 21:44
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