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Post ur dumb NH money picturez time poo poo is expensive yo
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Feb 7, 2016 21:45
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Arkane posted:Assuming I know that a judge or judges would decide it, I'd buy him being ruled ineligible anything below 20%. Doesn't seem very cut and dry for him. Since his mom was an American citizen when he was born, there's no way he gets ruled ineligible. You could have an academic argument about the true particulars of the definition of "natural born citizen", but the judiciary isn't touching that if the candidate has as strong a case as "My American Momma". Maybe if he gets one of those crazy rear end in a top hat lower court judges who always gets overruled for being a loving idiot, it'll be a fun ride until he's immediately over ruled.
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Feb 7, 2016 21:45
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Rubio has continued to sink all day, I think people are realizing how big a deal the debate performance was, or at least how quickly it permeated out to everyone.
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Feb 7, 2016 21:47
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TRUMP!
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Feb 7, 2016 21:48
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Aliquid posted:Rubio has continued to sink all day, I think people are realizing how big a deal the debate performance was, or at least how quickly it permeated out to everyone. Yeah, I've been watching his prices all day. I bought a bunch of Rubio.RNOM No shares @ 54 cents last week and have been regretting it during his post-Iowa bump. Now I can't decide if I want to unload them now or gamble on Rubio having a bad night in NH.
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Feb 7, 2016 21:51
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Predictit's 5% withdrawal fee is such bullshit 
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Feb 7, 2016 21:53
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a cop posted:TRUMP! 
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Feb 7, 2016 21:56
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Arkane posted:Assuming I know that a judge or judges would decide it, I'd buy him being ruled ineligible anything below 20%. Doesn't seem very cut and dry for him. Gyges posted:Since his mom was an American citizen when he was born, there's no way he gets ruled ineligible. You could have an academic argument about the true particulars of the definition of "natural born citizen", but the judiciary isn't touching that if the candidate has as strong a case as "My American Momma". Maybe if he gets one of those crazy rear end in a top hat lower court judges who always gets overruled for being a loving idiot, it'll be a fun ride until he's immediately over ruled. Agreed. This is really not close. He is very likely eligible according to the interpretations of the late 18th century and that's all that SCOTUS needs even if they didn't punt on the question, which is a very likely outcome anyhow.
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Feb 7, 2016 21:59
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Respect
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Feb 7, 2016 21:59
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Gibberish posted:Post ur dumb NH money picturez time Only reason I'm betting against Bernie is that the margins on betting for him weren't tempting at all, while $14 is a decent enough lotto ticket. Plus then Bernie winning anything shares are gonna plummet to super sweet buy levels if Hildawg wins.   Contingency for if Trump loses still in acquisition mode 
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Feb 7, 2016 22:01
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Fwiw I think Christie wins NH just about 1-2% of the time and would hedge out now.
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Feb 7, 2016 22:03
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I wish I had enough random money floating around to do stuff like this because it's basically free money Good luck and god bless, good sir, enjoy your free rent money this month
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Feb 7, 2016 22:03
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 New drop out markets!!
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Feb 7, 2016 22:07
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Adar posted:Fwiw I think Christie wins NH just about 1-2% of the time and would hedge out now. I feel like hedging on a 1-2% chance with my Diamond Joe winnings would be an insult to the spirit of that magnificent market. Vox Nihili posted:
Awww, it ain't no fun if they aren't linked. Edit: I was wondering what the gently caress a Massachusetts Taoiseach was because I when I glanced at Enda Kenny I just saw Kennedy. Gyges has issued a correction as of 22:11 on Feb 7, 2016 |
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Feb 7, 2016 22:08
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All markets are fun when they're in the "groping in the dark" stage. 
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Feb 7, 2016 22:20
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Vox Nihili posted:
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Feb 7, 2016 22:22
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Carson dropping out before the 12th seems like a decent bet for <.20
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Feb 7, 2016 23:03
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Flavahbeast posted:Carson dropping out before the 12th seems like a decent bet for <.20 I don't think he will, but I didn't expect Rand to drop, either.
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Feb 7, 2016 23:05
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I'm still 100% convinced that Carson is this season's grift candidate and will ride it out to the bitter end. See: Huckabee in 2008 'Miracles not Math'
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Feb 7, 2016 23:10
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I dunno about betting against Jeb! right now. The establishment could come back to him after dropping Rubio.
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Feb 7, 2016 23:13
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Flavahbeast posted:Carson dropping out before the 12th seems like a decent bet for <.20 Carson isn't going to drop out before South Carolina. But I didn't think that Rand would drop out before the convention. Carly is interesting. The GOP likes having her there to be able to attack Hillary without seeming sexist. I think the bet for her staying in is compelling.
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Feb 7, 2016 23:49
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Carson NO is in the 70s which is super tempting but the man is just too much of a wildcard. This is the one dropout horse I can't bet on anymore.
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Feb 7, 2016 23:58
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Gibberish posted:Post ur dumb NH money picturez time  I already dumped all my "trump wins anything" shares and have been very relaxed post Iowa/pre-Iowa debate debacle.
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Feb 8, 2016 00:56
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drat, people are turning on Rubio fast. I can't wait for every one else to drop and he scoops it up anyway. Or alternatively, a four way tie for second in NH and chaos reigns 
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Feb 8, 2016 02:20
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You may be onto something with the four-way 2nd place finish. They won't tie but it'll be so close that all of them can claim a small victory. This weekend's polls have mostly supported this outcome. This is what Christie mentioned when he said there could be four or five tickets outta NH. Unfortunately for him he isn't polling anywhere near where he should be to finish there. A sixth place showing will be his swansong. You can guess where my dropout money is sitting.
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Feb 8, 2016 04:00
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That's why I'm a little confused with how high Kasich for 2nd is trading. He's got a good shot, but it's probably going to be a crazy close shootout for second. No idea why he got all the way up to 40 earlier today. Maybe I'm just too hopeful for my Cruz YES shares. Oh, and if anyone cares, the ABC Speaker Time market hasn't closed yet (PredictIt posted an hour ago that they're reviewing the times to confirm before paying). The comments are going nuts with people screaming bloody murder/threatening lawsuits about having to wait until tomorrow.
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Feb 8, 2016 04:11
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Cross-posting from the GOP primary thread...Patter Song posted:Per Politico...
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Feb 8, 2016 04:36
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You can tell by the deviations from the mean that they had a very favorable sample of indies, in all likelihood too favorable.
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Feb 8, 2016 04:56
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Arkane posted:You can tell by the deviations from the mean that they had a very favorable sample of indies, in all likelihood too favorable. One would think they’d learned from the Romney campaign.
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Feb 8, 2016 04:59
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I'm still so loving iffy on Trump NH. The polling bump is definitely higher than anything he'll get in actual voting, but I'm so convinced that his lack of ground structure means that people will be lazy fucks, just like in Iowa. But then again, that's such a large polling gap between him and runner up. Ugh.
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Feb 8, 2016 05:01
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Gibberish posted:Post ur dumb NH money picturez time Trump better win this  Zeta Taskforce posted:I've been accumulating shares of Kasich YES in Vermont, Massachusetts and Minnesota and now have about 2000 of them at 2 or 3 cents. If he does well in NH they are going to pop, but I did manage to sell 57 of them at 12 cents in Massachusetts the other day. This is my biggest lottery ticket right now.  
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Feb 8, 2016 05:05
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What if each of the opening primary states chooses a different establishment dark horse to do way better than expected 
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Feb 8, 2016 05:12
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Necc0 posted:What if each of the opening primary states chooses a different establishment dark horse to do way better than expected TRUMP! *slams down receiver*
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Feb 8, 2016 05:14
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Logikv9 posted:I'm still so loving iffy on Trump NH. The polling bump is definitely higher than anything he'll get in actual voting, but I'm so convinced that his lack of ground structure means that people will be lazy fucks, just like in Iowa. Caucusing is a huge hassle. Primary voting is a normal day-long voting window, just like the general election. The barrier to participation is much lower.
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Feb 8, 2016 06:05
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Fuschia tude posted:Caucusing is a huge hassle. Primary voting is a normal day-long voting window, just like the general election. The barrier to participation is much lower. Also you can use an absentee ballot, which means you could have already voted and gone snowbirding to Florida where you have also registered to vote. Because you're an rear end. Non-assholes also have absentee voting available to them should they be out of town or just not feel like going to their dumb precinct when they can vote Trump from their spacious toilet.
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Feb 8, 2016 06:24
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Trump's numbers have finally recovered to the point that I am no longer losing money on my Trump Nom YES shares. I still think Rubio will get the nom in the end, however. Now thinking I should sell my Trump shares after NH...
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Feb 8, 2016 06:39
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FourLeaf posted:Trump's numbers have finally recovered to the point that I am no longer losing money on my Trump Nom YES shares. I still think Rubio will get the nom in the end, however. Now thinking I should sell my Trump shares after NH... I want to buy more Rubio shares while cheap, but I'm worried, and I have no money cause my Rubio shares are so cheap  At least most of my cash is in Hillary for the nom
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Feb 8, 2016 07:33
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FourLeaf posted:I still think Rubio will get the nom in the end, however You're insane.
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Feb 8, 2016 10:20
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It's gonna be Trump, or Cruz if god hates us all
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Feb 8, 2016 10:20
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Trump winning NH has gone up all week. I really should have bought more on Tuesday. It’s so high now that the hedge with TRUMP.ANYPRIMARY doesn’t really work any more.
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Feb 8, 2016 12:07
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