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Fiorina dropout by the 12th is priced at .47c right now for NO. Is she really that much of a sure thing to drop after NH?
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Feb 8, 2016 23:02
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:the Christie Dropout 2/12 NO market is still going down and IDGI
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Feb 8, 2016 23:07
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Peachstapler posted:What don't you get? Have you been reading my posts saying how he has no money, no support, and is polling below the threshold needed to get any delegates in NH, a place where he's dumped all his available campaign cash? He's flying to South Carolina on Wednesday by all accounts, but Mike Huckabee was flying to New Hampshire up until last Monday night. It's up to you if you want to believe Christie's word but the rest of that information is the actual situation on the ground and it does not look favorable for him. Oh, I completely understand that- I'm more surprised at the lack of response to the RCP article. After the Trump debate debacle I'm surprised there aren't more people driving up the price and commenting along the lines of 'wow I already maxed out but wish I could buy more- I'd get in on any price; his words are right there people!" There are plenty of reasons why people should be suspicious of anything Christie says (and they're well founded, IMO) but I expected some more hook, line, & sinker investments by now. It seems that whenever I expect users to make the smart move they astound me with their knee-jerks and when I suspect them to make the knee-jerks they're amazingly reserved. Perhaps the problem lies within??
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Feb 8, 2016 23:15
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:Oh, I completely understand that- I'm more surprised at the lack of response to the RCP article. After the Trump debate debacle I'm surprised there aren't more people driving up the price and commenting along the lines of 'wow I already maxed out but wish I could buy more- I'd get in on any price; his words are right there people!" There are plenty of reasons why people should be suspicious of anything Christie says (and they're well founded, IMO) but I expected some more hook, line, & sinker investments by now.
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Feb 8, 2016 23:18
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The Bloomberg presidential market is going crazy. There is a Financial Times article and CNBC article that just came out that is driving up the he will run. I don't see any new info, other than Bernie and Trump will do well in NH. I just picked up some NO at 60 cents. https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1943/Will-Michael-Bloomberg-become-a-presidential-candidate-by-March-31#data
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Feb 8, 2016 23:19
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Just so we're clear about Christie, he apparently does have events at a BBQ place and a package shack in SC Wed. night and Thursday and a month ago he bought ads in the state. Take that for what it's worth moving ahead.
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Feb 8, 2016 23:20
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The Bloomberg presidential market is going crazy. There is a Financial Times article and CNBC article that just came out that is driving up the he will run. I don't see any new info, other than Bernie and Trump will do well in NH. I just picked up some NO at 60 cents. Biden be praised, there is no way Bloomberg runs.
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Feb 8, 2016 23:27
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Peachstapler posted:Just so we're clear about Christie, he apparently does have events at a BBQ place and a package shack in SC Wed. night and Thursday and a month ago he bought ads in the state. Take that for what it's worth moving ahead. Christie would have events at a BBQ place planned whether he was running or not 
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Feb 8, 2016 23:30
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JosefStalinator posted:Biden be praised, there is no way Bloomberg runs. He's an excellent GOP candidate for New York but running him as a national candidate with his record and stance on issues like abortion, gay rights, tax and immigration reform, etc. is hilarious.
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Feb 8, 2016 23:37
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:He's an excellent GOP candidate for New York but running him as a national candidate with his record and stance on issues like abortion, gay rights, tax and immigration reform, etc. is hilarious. I'm not really sure what his game is, but he might genuinely believe Sanders can win. Once Hillary wraps up the Dem nomination, Bloomberg will back off and support her (assuming Trump gets the R Nom, which I'm skeptical of).
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Feb 8, 2016 23:42
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Gibberish posted:Post ur dumb NH money picturez time  I got great prices on Bernie yes/Hillary no (some sub-40c  ) because PI overreacts to polls 2 months out for no reason.The buy offers for Kasich yes and Trump no are penny stock territory. Please someone grant me my lotto tickets 
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Feb 8, 2016 23:55
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Is there a good reason I shouldn't buy Trump winning NH at $0.89? I realize he'll likely under-perform his polling numbers, but he's still up by like 15 points at RCP and the media narrative has turned against Rubio since the debate. Is Trump losing really plausible?
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Feb 9, 2016 00:27
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Gibberish posted:Post ur dumb NH money picturez time  cmooon Jeb! Jeb! Jeb! Jeb! Jeb! *bangs fork adn knife on the table*
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Feb 9, 2016 00:38
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Corrupt Politician posted:Is there a good reason I shouldn't buy Trump winning NH at $0.89? I realize he'll likely under-perform his polling numbers, but he's still up by like 15 points at RCP and the media narrative has turned against Rubio since the debate. Is Trump losing really plausible? Given how he performed in Iowa, in a caucus, against Ted Cruz, NH is a loving lock imo. As another poster put it, Donald could have 50% of his supporters show up to vote, with everyone else receiving 125% support, and still pull it in.
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Feb 9, 2016 00:40
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Corrupt Politician posted:Is there a good reason I shouldn't buy Trump winning NH at $0.89? I realize he'll likely under-perform his polling numbers, but he's still up by like 15 points at RCP and the media narrative has turned against Rubio since the debate. Is Trump losing really plausible? The only reason not to buy Trump YES in NH is because you want to make more money elsewhere. It's pretty much a sure thing at this point.
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Feb 9, 2016 00:43
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538 is only giving Trump 75% with their polls only forecast, That's the only reason I bought some Trump NO shares. I believe in Nate
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Feb 9, 2016 00:45
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A Time To Chill posted:
Great job on the Bernie/Hillary buys. For the Kasich lotto ticket, look into doing what I did and buy him winning the more moderate northern and mid western, ie VT, MA, and MN Super Tuesday. They spiked a lot when it looked like he might be the default establishment choice, but they are returning to more normal levels. I sold some VT for 20 cents earlier, but its down to 12. They are thinly traded so be patient. You could also buy some for him to win the nomination. It was 12 earlier today but the last trade was at 7. There is more liquidity there. I see those bets doubling if he comes in as the top establishment choice.
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Feb 9, 2016 00:45
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Zeta Taskforce posted:It was 12 earlier today but the last trade was at 7. There is more liquidity there. Kasich was trading at .10 not too long ago, someone just bought a whole bunch of NO's I think
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Feb 9, 2016 00:46
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Concerned Citizen posted:The Dem NV market is loving ridiculous. To be fair, there hasn't been a poll published there in over 6 weeks.
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Feb 9, 2016 01:35
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A Time To Chill posted:
Gat drat those are some nice NH.DEM shares.
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Feb 9, 2016 01:40
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Necc0 posted:Gat drat those are some nice NH.DEM shares. Yup. Very impressive.
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Feb 9, 2016 01:48
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Necc0 posted:Gat drat those are some nice NH.DEM shares. Yeah I got most of them in early December because apparently the people on PI don't understand that polls at that time are pretty meaningless.
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Feb 9, 2016 01:48
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Great job on the Bernie/Hillary buys. For the Kasich lotto ticket, look into doing what I did and buy him winning the more moderate northern and mid western, ie VT, MA, and MN Super Tuesday. They spiked a lot when it looked like he might be the default establishment choice, but they are returning to more normal levels. I sold some VT for 20 cents earlier, but its down to 12. They are thinly traded so be patient. You could also buy some for him to win the nomination. It was 12 earlier today but the last trade was at 7. There is more liquidity there. Yeah I actually ended up cancelling the Kasich orders. I still want that Trump no JUST IN CASE. That's a good idea re other states though--I'll look around and see if I can find any good flipping opportunities.
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Feb 9, 2016 01:51
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Bernie NOs are taking a dive universally. That's not to say they won't be even better after tomorrow.
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Feb 9, 2016 05:55
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Is it just me or is the website already crashing in anticipation of the primary?
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Feb 9, 2016 06:00
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Everyone should saunter on down to the NH GOP second place market, people are trading like crazy already.
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Feb 9, 2016 06:30
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Vox Nihili posted:Everyone should saunter on down to the NH GOP second place market, people are trading like crazy already. I'm going in hard on Cruz in the hopes that the early/unreliable percentages in the morning skew things in his favor.
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Feb 9, 2016 06:32
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Vox Nihili posted:Everyone should saunter on down to the NH GOP second place market, people are trading like crazy already. I would, if I thought I had a better idea of who will come second than everyone else, or if I had inclination to trade the swings.
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Feb 9, 2016 06:35
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Rubio is undervalued IMO. Picked up 200 shares at 29c. Cruz also probably undervalued.
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Feb 9, 2016 06:39
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Vox Nihili posted:Rubio is undervalued IMO. Picked up 200 shares at 29c. Agreed about Rubio, but I'm one of the people who thinks Cruz has practically zero chance so to me he's overvalued. Btw the midnight votes gave Cruz and Kasich boosts for NH win, because people who use predictit are stupid.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:46
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I'm going to be dancing in the rain when Cruz actually wins second! Let's go religious loons- show up in droves!
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Feb 9, 2016 08:50
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Vox Nihili posted:Rubio is undervalued IMO. Picked up 200 shares at 29c. I think you're right, but I'm a bit afraid that early results/exit polls might push it down before I can sell.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:52
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a cop posted:I'm going to be dancing in the rain when Cruz actually wins second! Let's go religious loons- show up in droves! They will, and they will accumulate 12% of the vote. It's Kasich or Rubio.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:53
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Aliquid posted:They will, and they will accumulate 12% of the vote. It's Kasich or Rubio. I think Cruz can pick up 8% of general rear end in a top hat pieces of poo poo for a solid #2!
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Feb 9, 2016 08:54
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Trump, Christie and Cruz split the piece of poo poo vote too hard imo
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Feb 9, 2016 08:57
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Aliquid posted:Trump, Christie and Cruz split the piece of poo poo vote too hard imo These are base voters, the piece of poo poo vote is way too large for that to happen.
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Feb 9, 2016 09:04
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we can only hope it's lethargic turtles all the way down
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Feb 9, 2016 09:07
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As long as Trump comes in 1st or 2nd, I'm good. If he comes in 3rd, I'll lose some money, but perhaps be okay with that after I hear his whiny speech.
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Feb 9, 2016 14:24
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What's the easiest way to request a new market? I'd like a "Will any Republican achieve a majority of delegates?" market, e.g. brokered convention.
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Feb 9, 2016 14:46
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Arkane posted:What's the easiest way to request a new market? I'd like a "Will any Republican achieve a majority of delegates?" market, e.g. brokered convention. Ask and ye shall have already received.
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Feb 9, 2016 14:52
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