|
MrChupon posted:Ok guys not PredictIt but the same difference. My sports bookie is offering Trump -580 on the NH primary tonight. So risk $58 to win $10, or risk $106 to win $20, etc.... I realize that's a heavy favorite, but it seems like a foregone conclusion looking at the polls? Based on that logic you should max out every credit card you have and write hot checks to bet even more. Bet $20K if you can. Or $100K Where else can you make that return in the next 6 hours? The real answer is at some point it will stop being fun and a loss will go from annoying to something that will really set you back. I don't know if that's $100, $1000, or $20. Only you can answer that
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 18:15 |
|
|
Zeta Taskforce posted:Based on that logic you should max out every credit card you have and write hot checks to bet even more. Bet $20K if you can. Or $100K Where else can you make that return in the next 6 hours? Fair enough. My sports gambling bankroll is indeed already 'fun money' but I get your point. I think I might be able to get $2,000 of satisfaction in watching Trump underperform in the the odd chance this doesn't come in. I'm going to think about it a little more. I'll post the pick so you can all make fun of me if I actually pull the trigger.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:15
|
|
|
OrangeKing posted:Remember, you're not up against the general public: you're up against other people playing the same game you are. They just happen to be very bad at it.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:16
|
|
|
MrChupon posted:Ok guys not PredictIt but the same difference. My sports bookie is offering Trump -580 on the NH primary tonight. So risk $58 to win $10, or risk $106 to win $20, etc.... I realize that's a heavy favorite, but it seems like a foregone conclusion looking at the polls? These are better odds than PredictIt so... go for it?
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:18
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Lol at insider trading on an ongoing primary. In theory, couldn't a lot of media and polling firm employees have the inside scoop on exit poll data that hasn't been released yet?
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:19
|
|
|
I was wondering about that too - employees at polling firms would know the results before anyone and could play the shifts on PredictIt. edit: not that it matters
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:20
|
|
|
MrChupon posted:Ok guys not PredictIt but the same difference. My sports bookie is offering Trump -580 on the NH primary tonight. So risk $58 to win $10, or risk $106 to win $20, etc.... I realize that's a heavy favorite, but it seems like a foregone conclusion looking at the polls? Diversify your "investments" or one unlucky outcome will clean you out. That said, it's probably a solid bet.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:23
|
|
|
railroad terror posted:Oh god I did it again I bet on Trump to win Also MSNBC early exit poll at 5. I expect an overrepresentation of Kasich (retirees)
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:28
|
|
|
it moved up to -600 before i pulled the trigger. And it looks like my bet singlehandedly moved it to -620. Anyway here you go, you can enjoy the laughs if this doesn't come in:
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:33
|
|
|
In for real (maybe) on Kasich 2nd No @ ~45c.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:39
|
|
|
The first exit poll is going to be Trump 28, Kasich 20, Rubio sub 10 - it's going to set the servers on fire.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:40
|
|
|
Flavahbeast posted:In theory, couldn't a lot of media and polling firm employees have the inside scoop on exit poll data that hasn't been released yet? If it were later in the day, yes. However most people are going to be voting after 4pm, because they do have to work. Exit polls done now are going to over represent retired and unemployed voters. Vox Nihili posted:In for real (maybe) on Kasich 2nd No @ ~45c. I kind of wish I'd held off on some of my bets because the prices have really jazzed up since I made them. Should have waited to buy my various Bernie No bets until tonight, but now I'm only in it for a reasonable return instead of amazing return. Listening to Hannity today, because I hate myself, and the way they're spinning Bernie winning NH as a Hillary catastrophe is hilarious. Gyges has issued a correction as of 22:44 on Feb 9, 2016 |
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:41
|
|
|
Countdown to server crash...
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:49
|
|
|
welp it broke e: nm, looks like its fine now. Was spinning for a long time a couple mins ago.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:52
|
|
|
Working fine for me.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:54
|
|
|
Cruz 2nd place for 9c now, wow.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 22:55
|
|
|
pathetic little tramp posted:The second place for Kasich market is skyrocketing. Someone in the comments said he suspected insider trading and I think everyone jumped on that boat. I'm counting the votes before they even come in!
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:04
|
|
|
Note: exit polls aren't going to be predictive right now because of the bias toward the highly engaged, unemployed, and smaller towns. But I want them anyway.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:08
|
|
|
Someone mock up some fake exit polls showing Trump second and Cruz first then post them in all Trump markets.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:11
|
|
|
I wonder what would happen if the first polls show Kasich at 1 and Trump at 2, servers would probably go down all night
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:18
|
|
|
Jewel Repetition posted:Note: exit polls aren't going to be predictive right now because of the bias toward the highly engaged, unemployed, and smaller towns. But I want them anyway. They're gonna confuse the hell outta people and then I'm gonna pounce!
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:18
|
|
|
rubio NO for second at $.76 seems pretty solid, no?
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:29
|
|
|
Abel Wingnut posted:rubio NO for second at $.76 seems pretty solid, no? No.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:32
|
|
|
Abel Wingnut posted:rubio NO for second at $.76 seems pretty solid, no? imo rubio 2nd is underpriced and kasich is absurdly overpriced, considering that there was so much bunching up in the polls around 2nd place
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:34
|
|
|
Abel Wingnut posted:rubio NO for second at $.76 seems pretty solid, no? Rubio Yes for 24c is much more solid.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:35
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Rubio Yes for 24c is much more solid. what's your reasoning? with the whole debate performance and the exit demographics saying that performance had some effect, i can't help but think he's on the downswing.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:39
|
|
|
I don't want to rule it out, so I can keep my perfect record, but Rubio not coming in second is less likely than they think.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:44
|
|
|
Well I'm in for 100 on Kasich NO for second place, let's see what happens.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:46
|
|
|
Yeah, this is one of those tricky spots, at least for me. I think Kasich has a better chance for 2nd, but no way is it over 50%. So far, going for expected value/targeting undervalued stuff means that you wind up ahead in the end. Served me well in Iowa at least. I guess check back in once I lose like $150 on NH.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:48
|
|
|
FWIW Nate gives Rubio a 25% shot at 2nd place as of this morning: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-at-stake-in-new-hampshires-republican-primary/ I bought a bunch of Rubio.No at .70 to hedge my Kasich NO stash. I really think someone in Kasich's campaign has been curating the 2nd place market, I was watching it all day: his shares were pretty stable at or just over .50, but whenever he went to an average of .49 it would only be for a moment before shooting back up. .50 YES for second place just doesn't seem like a rational bet to me
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:50
|
|
|
double post woops
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:50
|
|
|
kasich for second going nuts
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:53
|
|
|
Kasich Noes about one block away from plummeting down to zero lol
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2016 23:55
|
|
|
I have several thousand in action on Rubio.2nd.No and think it's the safest bet short of Trump to win.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2016 00:02
|
|
|
Remember, when Bernie wins Clinton bets are going to be fun as people over react to the loss.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2016 00:04
|
|
|
1 minute after I type this, the breaking CNN headline is over half of the exit polled said the debate influenced their vote gg marco
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2016 00:04
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Remember, when Bernie wins Clinton bets are going to be fun as people over react to the loss. There's basically already Berniemania on the markets. Bernie CO was at 75 cents earlier today!
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2016 00:05
|
|
|
So tempted to buy more Rubio no for 2nd.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2016 00:09
|
|
|
Gyges posted:So tempted to buy more Rubio no for 2nd. It just swung 10 cents.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2016 00:12
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 18:15 |
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:It just swung 10 cents. I appears to be in a looping of 10 cent swing. Mid 60s to mid 70s and back.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2016 00:19
|
|