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With hindsight, the lesson is: when someone is buying up the market from 10% to 70% on zero news, them buying it up IS the news. Interesting story about Intrade...in the run up to 2012, someone was putting up a bid of tens of thousands of shares on Trump winning the GOP nomination at stupidly high prices (relatively speaking). Made zero sense. There was very little rumbling about it. Donald Trump as the nominee? Ridiculous. Then come to find out a few months later that he almost joined, and had the whole launch planned out, only to change his mind. It was either him or a close associate bidding him up on Intrade.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:20
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Necc0 posted:God damnit. Carson don't you gently caress me too. Carson isn't Carly. He splits the Cruz/evangelical vote so the establishment wants him IN as long as possible. The only question is when he runs out of money--he's burning cash at an incredible rate. I think he'll limp through South Carolina at the minimum. He made the next debate based on polling numbers, I believe, so he has a few more books to sell yet.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:20
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Man, somebody won a lot of money on Carly. drat.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:21
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i had a sell no order at $.89 that was next in line to be filled before the news. made a good bit selling nos earlier, though. only lost about 100, but could have lost a ton more. jesus, gently caress you, carly.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:23
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People getting mega spooked on Carson now, probably overreacting. Carson down to 81 cents to stay in the race past the 12th. I'm buying.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:23
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Arkane posted:With hindsight, the lesson is: when someone is buying up the market from 10% to 70% on zero news, them buying it up IS the news. You'd think so, but having played the (linked) next to drop out market, people also make insane, baseless wagers on PredictIt pretty much every day. On several occasions Carly Yes was bought up all the way to 90c (this was weeks/months ago). Same for Carson and Rand. People would either overreact to media pieces or just straight up make wild $500 bets without understanding the system very well. The trick is distinguishing between someone with actual news and the idiots, which requires a burdensome hyper-awareness of current events.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:23
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Think we're straight on Carson... I accidentally received an email from his campaign (one of the names is similar to mine), and it has a full schedule for his BUS TOUR through South Carolina, with contact information for every stop. Plus he is in the debate. Why drop out before the debate?
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Feb 10, 2016 21:23
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Why won't predictit release my Trump nhyes winnings when they released my Trump anyprimaryyes winnings like 8 hours ago argh
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Feb 10, 2016 21:26
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Man, if only PredictIt still did dropouts based on WHO'S NEXT instead of just "will they", so many people would have bought Christie and gotten hosed when Carly's announcement was the first official one.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:29
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Arkane posted:Think we're straight on Carson... Yeah, Carson NO is such a sure thing that I put basically all my money in it. It's like people forgot that he skipped NH specifically because SC is so much more friendly to him. He was never gonna do well in the Northeast.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:32
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Hah Fiorina dropped. So much for my predictions.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:34
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I'm in on Carson Drop No as well. Ride together die together etc.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:39
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trying to find shares <.85 but it seems like the market has caught up. got a bunch of buys in for .83 and .84 but I'm afraid that won't happen anytime today :/
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Feb 10, 2016 21:41
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gently caress YOU CARLY
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Feb 10, 2016 21:41
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also incredibly glad I threw that carly sell at .90 order out. marginal gains, people.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:42
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:trying to find shares <.85 but it seems like the market has caught up. got a bunch of buys in for .83 and .84 but I'm afraid that won't happen anytime today :/ Anything below 93 is a good play unless you think you'll need that money in the next two days for some reason? IM DAY DAY IRL posted:also incredibly glad I threw that carly sell at .90 order out. marginal gains, people. Yeah as far fetched as her dropping out was I somehow dodged that bullet as well (despite posting in here that her staying in for at least another few days was almost certain. woops!)
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Feb 10, 2016 21:42
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Anyone putting money into the Dem Nevada race? I know it was discussed a few pages ago, but I didn't hear about anyone buying in.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:45
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I LOVE YOU, CARLY!
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Feb 10, 2016 21:50
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What PredictIt giveth, PredictIt taketh away.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:50
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UnoriginalMind posted:Anyone putting money into the Dem Nevada race? I know it was discussed a few pages ago, but I didn't hear about anyone buying in.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:50
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:also incredibly glad I threw that carly sell at .90 order out. marginal gains, people. Yep I made major money after her announcement last night and dropped out of the market like Carly drops out of races.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:53
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Peachstapler posted:I'm strong Bernie NO (~400 shares) based on the fact that he couldn't beat Hillary in Iowa using the same format and she won the state in 2008. I had the same feeling. I'm interested to see what will develop. I think I'm going in on this.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:02
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pathetic little tramp posted:Man, if only PredictIt still did dropouts based on WHO'S NEXT instead of just "will they", so many people would have bought Christie and gotten hosed when Carly's announcement was the first official one. oh my god this would have been an 'Event Horizon' level bloodbath
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Feb 10, 2016 22:04
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gently caress Scott Walker, still
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Feb 10, 2016 22:13
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Peachstapler posted:I'm strong Bernie NO (~400 shares) based on the fact that he couldn't beat Hillary in Iowa using the same format and she won the state in 2008. Market might freak out when the next Nevada polls come out, which are almost certain to be more favorable to Bernie than the current numbers. If you plan to buy and hold, you might want to wait to get in.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:17
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tinstaach posted:gently caress Scott Walker, still I still have my WALKER.RNOM.NO shares that I bought last August for $.80 
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Feb 10, 2016 22:19
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welp, already flipped my first round of Carsons. dropped another buy order, will check intermittently and hope to ride the wave all day 
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Feb 10, 2016 22:22
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a cop posted:I'm sorry to anyone who died I just got owned
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Feb 10, 2016 22:25
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On the bright side, Kasich is rising in the states you'd expect him to do well in on Super Tuesday. Anyone else buy low on him and get in on the Kasichmentum?
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Feb 10, 2016 22:28
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Vox Nihili posted:Market might freak out when the next Nevada polls come out, which are almost certain to be more favorable to Bernie than the current numbers. If you plan to buy and hold, you might want to wait to get in.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:30
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Vox Nihili posted:You'd think so, but having played the (linked) next to drop out market, people also make insane, baseless wagers on PredictIt pretty much every day. On several occasions Carly Yes was bought up all the way to 90c (this was weeks/months ago). Same for Carson and Rand. People would either overreact to media pieces or just straight up make wild $500 bets without understanding the system very well. I disagree man, basically every single trade is information. But I do agree that a single trade could be a mis-click or someone just making a reckless bet.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:32
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Christie has informed his staff that it's over. We need a public declaration Chris!
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Feb 10, 2016 22:41
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GOP Brokered is pretty nuts. Now at a 40% chance. I don't really want to short it given the time frames, but that seems high.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:47
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5200 shares of Carson Dropout No at .92, 1c above my current avg value looks like today's flipping is over for me edit: make that 5800. if any of you want to make 8c/share over the next two days feel free to max out IM DAY DAY IRL has issued a correction as of 22:52 on Feb 10, 2016 |
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Feb 10, 2016 22:48
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:5200 shares of Carson Dropout No at .92, 1c above my current avg value Put the last of my funds into this. I know he's not going to bomb me like Fiorina...but the fear is REAL.
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Feb 10, 2016 23:49
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Arkane posted:GOP Brokered is pretty nuts. Now at a 40% chance. I don't really want to short it given the time frames, but that seems high. That's way high. I'd give it 10% charitably. There's going to be even more candidates dropping before Super Tuesday.
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Feb 10, 2016 23:53
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OrangeKing posted:On the bright side, Kasich is rising in the states you'd expect him to do well in on Super Tuesday. Anyone else buy low on him and get in on the Kasichmentum? Yes. I've never hit something so hard and just ran with it. At one point I owned 25% of the Kasich YES in VT, NH, & MN. I've since sold about 2/3 of my position. I made more money in the last 4 days than the last 5 months. Winning lottery tickets is fun. It's going to be hard to go back to grinding it out on safe stuff but necessary if I want to keep what PredictIt giveth.
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Feb 11, 2016 00:01
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It's been real, everyone, but I need to focus on real life before this hobby turns into a habit. Final score for bragging purposes:   (GO BERNIE)
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Feb 11, 2016 00:27
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Glad I didn't touch Carly. Nothing about her makes any sense to me and I wasn't confident dumping a bunch of money into those NO shares.
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Feb 11, 2016 00:27
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Vox Nihili posted:It's been real, everyone, but I need to focus on real life before this hobby turns into a habit. Holy poo poo dude. That's unreal. Good job.
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Feb 11, 2016 00:27
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